2011-2012 US JGP Assignment Predictions/Discussion

[stjeaskategym]

If you read the article I linked above ("Notebook: U.S. ladies vie for scarce JGP slots"), here's a quote from USFS' International Committee Chair:

"Certainly there are skaters who had tough sectional events and/or injuries last season and we have identified and followed their progress this summer," Williams said. "Any skater listed on the ISP, for all intents and purposes, has an equal opportunity to be selected for a JGP or senior B international based on age eligibility."

And he also stated this...

"Some might say, based on a skater's performances at summer competitions, that she should be assigned. However, there are other criteria, and this includes the sustained excellence needed to qualify for and place at the U.S. Championships."

I am fine with selecting the JGP skaters based on Nationals results (perhaps with exceptions made for skaters who withdrew due to injury). If we put great thought into it and weighed things like summer competitions into the decision, perhaps we could select a slightly stronger team of skaters, but we don't even put that type of thought into our World and Olympic teams. Everything is done by National results. I'm reluctant to heavily consider scores from summer competitions anyway... Scoring may be more lenient, the pressure is often drastically less, etc. I would give Gracie Gold a JGP right now, but Nationals results are often the sole importance in this country. I wish they weren't, but if they must be, then I would like that to hold true for both Jr and Sr competitions. Of course, when we have so few JGP age-eligible skaters, like in pairs, other factors besides Nationals must be considered, but when we have so many Jr ladies, I don't think it's right to weigh in summer competitions much, if at all.

Using qualifying to nationals as such a heavy factor in deciding who gets a JGP frustrates me. It would be one thing if qualifying to nationals was done more like gymnastics where all the good athletes are there; it's quite another thing when some of the best skaters are left home each year because their section was a bloodbath. Coasts last season was insane! And Mids had five really great skaters with only four spots. Easterns not so much.

Yes. Easterns is often so weak I wish there was a different way to hold Regionals. Personally, I would require everyone to compete in the summer competition and then seed those skaters based on their scores, and then set up Regional events based on those seeds. It's not a flawless system by any means, but I think it's much better than setting up Regionals based on location. But I'm not expecting a change any time soon.

Possibly. Or maybe they just listed their first 7 alternates alphabetically by last name and hers starting with an M doesn't make the cut. :p It is kinda funny how of the US junior ladies, so many of them are in the first half of the alphabet....only Siraj and potentially Wang in the N-Z range.

Yeah, it does pretty much look like an alphabetical list. But it also does follow National results (and adds in the couple of girls who pulled out of Nationals)... The only one skipped over was Marley. Either she declined, or it really is an alphabetical list that just didn't reach her name.

[Sylvia]

And he also stated this...

No, that was a different person (Moyer).

Yeah, it does pretty much look like an alphabetical list. But it also does follow National results (and adds in the couple of girls who pulled out of Nationals)... The only one skipped over was Marley. Either she declined, or it really is an alphabetical list that just didn't reach her name.

Last I heard, Marley reportedly is planning to focus on pairs this season.

ETA the JGP/JGP-eligible skaters added to the Reserve envelope on the USFS site: Timothy Dolensky (assigned to Latvia), Harrison Choate, David Wang, Philip Warren (men);
Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier, Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan (both teams are assigned to Latvia), Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu, Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer (pairs);
Danielle Gamelin & Alexander Gamelin (Latvia), Madeline Heritage & Nathaniel Fast (dance);
Samantha Cesario (listed as an alternate for Latvia).

[gkelly]

Back when Junior Worlds was held in December, the US often had an invitational tryout competition in the summer to select participants, rather than rely strictly on Nationals results from 10 or 11 months earlier. However, Nationals results did play a big part in who got invited to try out, though.

For the ISU championships that take place within a few weeks to a couple months after Nationals -- Four Continents, Junior Worlds, Worlds -- and also Olympics every 4 years -- it makes more sense to base the decisions completely on Nationals results or to weight them more than everything else put together. It is often necessary to take other recent/important international events into consideration when deciding whether to assign top finishers more than one championship or to spread the wealth, and to allow exceptions for proven international medalists who have to withdraw from Nationals. Age eligibility, citizenship, minimum international scores, and other restrictions imposed by international governing bodies also need to be taken into account, and for Junior Worlds the junior results from Nationals will also be considered.

So there isn't a perfect strict formula that says places XYZ at Nationals are guaranteed spots at Worlds or 4Cs etc. But since these events come right after Nationals, that's the best source of information about how skaters are likely to perform.

But for fall competitions that the US gets to choose who it wants to send -- i.e., not the Grand Prix, which has its own very specific selection rules and relies on each host country getting to make invitations according to those rules -- many months will have passed before the assignments get made and then another month before the competition actually takes place. So it makes sense to look at more recent (i.e., summer) competitions or monitoring sessions. But, for singles skaters especially, there are many skaters participating in many competitions around the country. And different skaters are on schedule to peak at different points in the season. E.g., a skater who missed Nationals last year might have been working on new programs since January and come to a July competition with something to prove. A skater who competed at Worlds or Junior Worlds -- not to mention pair and dance teams that just got together in the spring -- might barely have their programs ready to show by early summer. And then injuries can always be a consideration as well. And there isn't a good opportunity to get all the potential JGP and senior B competitors in one place to compete against each other in early summer. If there were, it would practically be a second Nationals. So it's even harder to come up with firm rules or guidelines on how much to weight Nationals results vs. how to weight strong performances in the summer. I don't know what the best solution is.

[chipso1]

I just can't grasp the concept that the USFS will (in all likelihood) NOT assign their arguably two most talented/best all-around skaters (Gold and Keiser) because they didn't make Nationals last season. I know that's been the protocol in the past, but Gracie and Leah are clearly not the same skaters they were in November. It's just ridiculous that two JGPF gold medal threats (with the full arsenal of triples, high level spins and 3/3 combinations) will probably not even be able to take part in the series.

They need to begin nurturing talented skaters because Sochi will be here before we know it.

[/rant]

[Stephanie]

I just can't grasp the concept that the USFS will (in all likelihood) NOT assign their arguably two most talented/best all-around skaters (Gold and Keiser) because they didn't make Nationals last season. I know that's been the protocol in the past, but Gracie and Leah are clearly not the same skaters they were in November. It's just ridiculous that two JGPF gold medal threats (with the full arsenal of triples, high level spins and 3/3 combinations) will probably not even be able to take part in the series.

They need to begin nurturing talented skaters because Sochi will be here before we know it.

[/rant]

I think Dolensky getting an assignment even though he didn't make nationals is a good sign for Gold and Keiser. With both Gong and Marley out of contention for spots, I think at least Gracie has a really good shot at one of the later JGPs. I really hope she gets one!

ETA: Kiri Baga is also a major question mark, IMO, even though she is listed as an alternate, since she has yet to compete this season and AFAIK hasn't signed up for any of the remaining summer competitions.

[chipso1]

ETA: Kiri Baga is also a major question mark, IMO, even though she is listed as an alternate, since she has yet to compete this season and AFAIK hasn't signed up for any of the remaining summer competitions.

Kiri skated both her SP and FS at Skate St. Paul last month, and will be competing at the MN State Championships in two weeks (or so I've heard...). I realize that neither of these are USFS monitoring competitions.

FWIW, I've been told Kiri had a very good SP at Skate St. Paul, but a less than stellar FS.

[Sylvia]

Kiri skated both her SP and FS at Skate St. Paul last month,

Thanks for this. I sure wish St. Paul FSC would publish their competition results!

and will be competing at the MN State Championships in two weeks (or so I've heard...). I realize that neither of these are USFS monitoring competitions.

As long as a skater lets USFS know ahead of time that they are competing somewhere, any summer competition can be used for "competition readiness" purposes, from what I understand.

I think Dolensky getting an assignment even though he didn't make nationals is a good sign for Gold and Keiser.

I think his situation is different from the US ladies' because there are fewer US JGP age-eligible men in the ISP. Jay Yostanto may benefit because of this, too. Dolensky finished a pretty solid 4th at his only previous JGP assignment in Sheffield, GBR last season.

[Sayana_mnk]

I think Dolensky getting an assignment even though he didn't make nationals is a good sign for Gold and Keiser. With both Gong and Marley out of contention for spots, I think at least Gracie has a really good shot at one of the later JGPs. I really hope she gets one!

Dolensky's assignment, already unusual because he was not at nationals, seemed surprising to me because of his "so-so" result at Liberty. I think the reason he is being sent is that he has some prior JGP experience, whereas the other junior men (excluding Farris and Brown) do not. Thus, Dolensky's situation isn't really comparable to Gold's. I do think, though, that Gold will be assigned to one of the later JGP events. The USFSA is probably just trying to appear to be "playing fair" to those who were at nationals, but in the end will see the sense in giving Gold an assignment.

[Stephanie]

Kiri skated both her SP and FS at Skate St. Paul last month, and will be competing at the MN State Championships in two weeks (or so I've heard...). I realize that neither of these are USFS monitoring competitions.

FWIW, I've been told Kiri had a very good SP at Skate St. Paul, but a less than stellar FS.

Wow, that's great news, thank you. I'm a huge Kiri fan and was getting a bit worried since I hadn't heard about her competing yet this summer.

[Bogie]

Unlike the girls, there is not a ton of age-eligible guys available to compete on the JGP. The odds-on favorite to win the Junior Men's title this season, Nathan Chen, is too young to compete on the JGP, and some solid guys seem to have aged out this season, like Max Aaron, Keegan Messing and Alexander Z. It is kind of a no-brainer to send Dolensky, and Yostanto should probably get a shot as well.

Oddly, it is just the opposite at the Senior level...too few international slots for a lot of talented men who were at Nationals in January, and as for the senior ladies, well, let's just say that there doesn't seem to be the same problem.

[her grace]

ore American ladies might get a JGP assignment this season than in previous seasons due to the reduction in JGP Final spots from 8 to 6. In the past, a fourth place could merit a second assignment. Now, a skater who finishes fourth or even third might not get a second chance. And with the depth of the international field, I think several of our initial selections will have difficulty reaching the medal stand. For example, I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if both Siraj and Kulgeyko medal at Latvia. I think there's a good chance that the assignments will be spread around to several different girls.

[Sylvia]

More American ladies might get a JGP assignment this season than in previous seasons due to the reduction in JGP Final spots from 8 to 6. In the past, a fourth place could merit a second assignment. Now, a skater who finishes fourth or even third might not get a second chance.

Good point! Fourth in their 1st JGP didn't merit a 2nd assignment for Samantha Cesario (JGP #2 in Romania) or Angela Wang (JGP #4 in Japan) last season. Fortunately, Richard Dornbush got a 2nd assignment after his 4th place finish in Austria!

[sammyf]

It's likely that Choate was originally a men's entry for Latvia (he and Siraj share coaches) and that Tim Dolensky was added as an alternate. Choate was dealing with an ankle injury at Liberty, IIRC.

I wonder if the same thing didn't happen in pairs. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu withdrew from Indy and are not on the Latvia alternate list yet were added to the reserve team. Seems like they were an initial entry there and were replaced. Hopefully they can get added to a later assignment.

[5Ali3]

I just can't grasp the concept that the USFS will (in all likelihood) NOT assign their arguably two most talented/best all-around skaters (Gold and Keiser) because they didn't make Nationals last season. I know that's been the protocol in the past, but Gracie and Leah are clearly not the same skaters they were in November.

Ah, ye young grasshoppers, how short your memory is... *strokes imaginary long white beard, discovers dried ketchup on chin, returns to typing*

The policy that international assignments were based primarily on placement at Nationals is a very new policy. I can't remember when things changed, but sometime between 1998 and 2002, I think, although things started to change in the mid-90s as the profile of figure skating grew, the media scrutiny of the association grew, and the GP/JGP created more assignments. The policy that international assignments are based partly on Nationals placements but mostly on summer competitions was in place for DECADES. The result was that assignments were largely based on politics, with emphasis on certain coaches and particular clubs. There was no transparency and - frankly - no actual standards. You cannot believe how awful that system was unless you lived through the Olden Days of Fairly Recent Yore.

The USFSA is probably just trying to appear to be "playing fair" to those who were at nationals, but in the end will see the sense in giving Gold an assignment.

1) We've discussed the likelihood of U.S. Figure Skating contemplating the reaction to any of their actions, nevermind deliberately accurately calibrating their actions to make themselves look good. I'm sure someone else can provide a link.
2) Just because you don't know who has been given a JGP assignment doesn't mean that the skaters don't know.

[Eris]

ore American ladies might get a JGP assignment this season than in previous seasons due to the reduction in JGP Final spots from 8 to 6.

They reduce the number of spots only for ice dance and pairs, not for singles.

[Sylvia]

They reduce the number of spots only for ice dance and pairs, not for singles.

That was what the ISU originally did, but then they ended up reducing the JGPF singles slots to 6 as well -- it's published in the JGP Announcement.

[Eris]

That was what the ISU originally did, but then they ended up reducing the JGPF singles slots to 6 as well -- it's published in the JGP Announcement.

Oh no!.. Thanks for telling, but... I wish I didn't know. Actually I wish this hadn't happened.

[stjeaskategym]

No, that was a different person (Moyer).

Oops, I overlooked the fact that the quotes were from two separate people. Still, if at least one person stated it, it seems clear that it will be really tough for anyone who hasn't been at Nationals to get an assignment. I will be curious to see if the 7th and 8th place Jrs get an assignment like last year... If they don't give those girls one, that will open up even more chances for a skater with a good summer result. Or they could simply fill any remaining slots with the top Novice finishers from Nationals and ignore the summer results all together.

More American ladies might get a JGP assignment this season than in previous seasons due to the reduction in JGP Final spots from 8 to 6. In the past, a fourth place could merit a second assignment. Now, a skater who finishes fourth or even third might not get a second chance. And with the depth of the international field, I think several of our initial selections will have difficulty reaching the medal stand. For example, I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if both Siraj and Kulgeyko medal at Latvia. I think there's a good chance that the assignments will be spread around to several different girls.

Good point, although even last year they spread the wealth quite a bit. Only 4 out of the 10 girls who received assignments got a second one. There will be plenty of spots available, but there are still enough girls from Nationals to fill all those spots. It would be nice for at least Gracie Gold to sneak in there somewhere, but I won't hold my breath.

[sk8mom1970]

I wonder if the same thing didn't happen in pairs. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu withdrew from Indy and are not on the Latvia alternate list yet were added to the reserve team. Seems like they were an initial entry there and were replaced. Hopefully they can get added to a later assignment.

My guess is that the other three pair teams are going to Poland. They are Aaron/Settlage, Calalang/Sidhu, Simpson/Blackmer. I am guessing that is why the other two teams were monitored at Indy and placed on the reserve team envelope.

[Stephanie]

McKinzie Daniels had a really rough skate at Glacier Falls. I wonder if this will affect her chances of getting a junior JGP (previously I had considered her a near lock for one).