2011-2012 US JGP Assignment Predictions/Discussion

[haribobo]

Wow there a very few JGP eligable pairs.....what are the requirements for new high potential teams to get an assignment? will indy decide?

Yes, doing well at Indy definitely can put a new team in the running for a JGP spot. Not all the teams I've listed above will get a spot - if they do poorly at Nats and Indy, and a better team emerges by the time Indy rolls around, the new team generally will get the spot first. We'll have to see how much the novice teams can upgrade their difficulty for next season - all of the top 6 have good potential IMO.

Also, Garza/Frazier are a pretty rocking team- watch for them in the SP today- LOVE that program.

[pinky166]

Shoji and Li will likely stay at the JGP, Lipnitskaya will be old enough to go, Deeva, who has huge jumps and will do 3-3's next year for sure, will go too, Agafonova, Sheveleva... Anna Ovcharova will be back after injury... It's not going to be much easier next year

This is true. However, while the Russian girls you mentioned are all very good, they aren't quite Adelina and Liza level, at least not yet, so Courtney could definitely hang in there with all of them if not win a lot. But the deep JGP field is just another reason why she should do the JGP, it's not like she won't have any competition there, her 3-3s and PCS will be valuable assets and even with them, it's still going to be steep competition among the top ladies there.

[sammyf]

Wow there a very few JGP eligable pairs.....what are the requirements for new high potential teams to get an assignment? All these teams look weak...there are a few new teams coming together and I was wondering do they have to wait a year? Some of these teams will be good from the start....just add ice....will indy decide?

Very few? There are 12 current US novice and junior teams that will be age eligible for the JGP next year. That's quite a lot, only Russia has more, there will probably be some splits but also new teams too.

[sk9tingfan]

Pass the USFS Senior Moves in the Field and Free Skating tests.

Remember the famous story about Michelle Kwan and how at the age of 12 she took her senior tests behind Frank Carroll's back. He had wanted her to remain as a Junior for an additional season. She took matters into her own hands.

[Sylvia]

Here are the JGP age-eligible skaters/teams listed initially in the 2011-12 International Selection Pool (ISP) on the USFS site. I've included their 2011 Nationals placement or withdrawal (wd) and the number of JGPs and Finals they've done. I didn't include any JGP age-eligibles who've already competed on the Senior Grand Prix.

LADIES (20)
Kiri Baga S-wd (4+2 JGPF, wd this season)
Ashley Cain J6
Samantha Cesario S-wd (1)
McKinzie Daniels J4
Lauren Dinh J2
Haley Dunne J8
Polina Edmunds J7
Christina Gao S5 (4+2 JGPF) - GP next season?
Kristiene Gong S11 (3+JGPF)
Courtney Hicks J1 (JW6)
Nina Jiang J9 (1)
Ellie Kawamura S16 (2+JGPF 2 yrs ago)
Katarina Kulgeyko J3
Vanessa Lam S7 (1)
Mary Beth Marley J5
Hannah Miller N1
Yasmin Siraj S8 (2+JGPF)
Kelsey Traunero S13
Angela Wang J-dnq (1)
Felicia Zhang S-wd (1)

MEN (10)
Jason Brown S9 (2)
Harrison Choate J8
Timothy Dolensky J-dnq (1)
Joshua Farris S21 (4+JGPF)
Jordan Moeller N2
Shotaro Omori J9
Nix Phengsy N3
Emmanuel Savary J5
David Wang J7
Philip Warren J6

PAIRS (9)
Aaron/Settlage N1
Agster/Civiello J-dnq (1)
Bergdolt/Addison N7
Calalang/Sidhu J8 (1)
Carman/Reiss J4 (3)
Duarte/Grafton J7 (3)
Goldberg/Dolkiewicz N3
Oltmanns/Santillan J11 (1)
Shaughnessy/Morgan N5

DANCE (9)
Aldridge/Eaton J5 (2)
Bonacorsi/Mager J2 (4)
Gamelin/Gamelin J7 (1)
Hawayek/Bramante N3
Heritage/Fast J8
Mancini/Brooks N2
Parsons/Parsons N1
Pogrebinsky/Gudis N4
Yang/Baker J6 (2)
(I left off Oi/Jahnke N5 because they have split.)

[oleada]

Nice to see Angela Wang on the list!

[Sylvia]

Thought it was a good time to bump up this thread!

PAIRS
...
Carman/Reiss J4 (3)

They are still listed in the ISP as of today but have split.

New age-eligible pairs that are scheduled to compete this summer:
Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer
Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier (reteamed)
Christine Mozer/Danny O'Shea

Moving these relevant posts from the US club comps thread in Kiss and Cry :

[Hannah] Miller is definitely proving herself for a JGP, as is [Barbie] Long. They will assign kids that were novice last year if they deserve it, right?

As of now, I believe the only one of last year's Novices who is listed in the International Selection Pool is Hannah Miller. Others could be added, though, based on scores at summer competitions. Still, being listed in the ISP is no guarantee they'll be assigned to any JGPs. It usually depends on the number of age-eligible seniors that USFS selects, how deep the junior field was (very), and how those skaters fare at their first assignment.

It also depends on how many of the JGP entries from last season are staying JGP for this season.

Siraj -- very likely yes
Lam -- very likely yes
Jiang -- I would imagine
Wang -- I would imagine
F. Zhang -- I would imagine
Baga -- probably staying jr?
Gong -- ??
Cesario -- ??
Davis -- ?? (is she still competing singles?)
Gao -- moving to the SGP

Once again, the USFS will have quite a difficult decision to make: too many talented girls and only 14 spots to go around. Cesario, Davis, Wang and F. Zhang might be at a disadvantage since they did not qualify and/or compete at Nationals last season and did not have spectacular results at their respective JGP events. Baga w/d from Nationals, but at least she won a silver medal last season and is a 2-time JGPF qualifier.

I will be interesting to see what happens. If healthy, I would assume Hicks, Siraj, Lam and Dinh are virtual locks for 2 events, but after that it gets kind of messy.

ETA: It's also important to remember that the solo jump for the junior SP this season is the Lutz. Of the Novice top 3 from 2011, only Long has a 3Lz. That may play a factor as well.

True.

Skaters who had 3Lz last season: Courtney Hicks, Yasmin Siraj, Vanessa Lam, Angela Wang, Felicia Zhang, Kiri Baga, Kristiene Gong, Samantha Cesario, Barbie Long, Lauren Dinh, McKinzie Daniels, Katarina Kulgeyko, Leah Keiser

Skaters who didn't but could be considered: Nina Jiang, Lindsey Davis, Hannah Miller, Mariah Bell (is she too young?)

I see it playing out this way.

Virtual Locks for 2: Courtney Hicks, Lauren Dinh, Yasmin Siraj, Vanessa Lam

Could be considered for 2, at least 1: Kiri Baga, Hannah Miller, Kristiene Gong (if still Jr.), Katarina Kulgeyko

Would need good summer results to be selected for 1: Leah Keiser, McKinzie Daniels, Nina Jiang, Angela Wang, Felicia Zhang, Samantha Cesario, Lindsey Davis (pairs?), Barbie Long, Mariah Bell (again, if eligible).

Lindsay Davis did not compete singles after her JGP in Austria last fall - she withdrew from the Senior Ladies event at SWP Regionals last season (she's 19 now anyway). Mariah Bell (N3) is old enough but neither she or Long (N2) are currently listed in the ISP.

[SamuraiK]

I think obvious choices are:

Siraj
Lam
Hicks
Dinh
Kulgeyko

All likely to get a 2nd event so thats 10 spots already, after that fighting for 4 spots:

Daniels
Marley
Cain
Miller
or any of Baga,Cesario, Zhang if they want to stay in JGP.

[Jenna]

Lindsay Davis did not compete singles after her JGP in Austria last fall - she withdrew from the Senior Ladies event at SWP Regionals last season (she's 19 now anyway). Mariah Bell (N3) is old enough but neither she or Long (N2) are currently listed in the ISP.

Okay, thanks. Bell looks so young!

Long and Bell are not in the ISP, and neither are Leah Keiser nor Gracie Gold.

They will have to really impress officials at the monitoring comps to even be added to the ISP, never mind being selected. I assume Bell & Gold will be at Broadmoor as usual, while Long could do Skate Detroit. Keiser could do Glacier Falls and/or Golden West.

[chipso1]

Thought this clip was relevant to this thread, since the solo SP jump for juniors this year is the Lutz.

Nina Jiang - 3Lz attempt

[Jenna]

Alright! Good to know she's at least trying it. In that clip, it would probably be 3Lz<<, but it's been two months so hopefully she's made some progress.

[jlai]

As deserving as Keiser and Gold are of JGP spots, I'd give the spots to those who qualified for nationals and did well in summer first--that would include Nina Jiang, Hannah Miller and Long. So I don't see Keiser, Wang and Gold getting JGPs at all. Had this been a year where the jr girls were weaker maybe.

[her grace]

As deserving as Keiser and Gold are of JGP spots, I'd give the spots to those who qualified for nationals and did well in summer first

Using qualifying to nationals as such a heavy factor in deciding who gets a JGP frustrates me. It would be one thing if qualifying to nationals was done more like gymnastics where all the good athletes are there; it's quite another thing when some of the best skaters are left home each year because their section was a bloodbath. Coasts last season was insane! And Mids had five really great skaters with only four spots. Easterns not so much.

I do think athletes should be rewarded for doing well at nationals. If you finish in the top three in juniors or the top ten in seniors, you deserve to get the first shot at a JGP. I'm okay with all the initial assignments, i.e., the first seven, being given based on national results. But after those assignments have been given, I would give any additional assignments to skates based primarily on summer results. I wouldn't say J6 is more deserving than J7 or Mids5 simply because of nationals. Send the skaters who are skating the best now . . . not months ago.

[Eris]

Send the skaters who are skating the best now . . . not months ago.

Agree.

Such a shame Keiser and Gold won't likely get a spot. Now they are good enough not only to compete at JGP but to win medals and qualify for the Final.

[gotice]

I do think athletes should be rewarded for doing well at nationals. If you finish in the top three in juniors or the top ten in seniors, you deserve to get the first shot at a JGP. I'm okay with all the initial assignments, i.e., the first seven, being given based on national results. But after those assignments have been given, I would give any additional assignments to skates based primarily on summer results. I wouldn't say J6 is more deserving than J7 or Mids5 simply because of nationals. Send the skaters who are skating the best now . . . not months ago.

Then what do you think about sending Dinh J2 at nats on a JGP ahead of Keiser and Gold after her Broadmoor and Liberty performances? She's a national medalist, and on the ISP.

[her grace]

Then what do you think about sending Dinh J2 at nats on a JGP ahead of Keiser and Gold after her Broadmoor and Liberty performances? She's a national medalist, and on the ISP.

I think Dinh should go before Keiser and Gold as a reward for skating extremely well through the pressure cooker of both the qualification process and at nationals. I think exceptional Nationals results should mean something. But I do not put a lot of stock in nationals results that weren't particularly compelling. In the event that Dinh doesn't merit a second JGP assignment, I'd happily give it to Keiser or Gold.

[Sylvia]

Also, Lauren Dinh did skate respectably in winning the Junior gold medal at Gardena Spring Trophy in Italy in early April (her total score was 127.21) and so I think Dinh deserves an initial JGP assignment despite not having a good start so far this summer.

ETA:

I think exceptional Nationals results should mean something. But I do not put a lot of stock in nationals results that weren't particularly compelling.

Based on 2011 Nationals results/scores (see haribobo's post below mine), I would give initial JGP assignments to Lam, Siraj, Hicks, Dinh, and Kulgeyko, and then consider who is skating well this summer (in more than one competition and preferably one of the "majors").

Alright! Good to know she's [Nina Jiang] at least trying it. In that clip, it would probably be 3Lz<<, but it's been two months so hopefully she's made some progress.

Jiang was credited with landing a clean 3Lz in her initial Senior FS at Skate Detroit and received -2.10 GOE on the 3Lz in her Final round FS the next day. Good to see her making progress on this jump!

[haribobo]

2011 SR LADIES @ Nats
7 Vanessa Lam All Year FSC 162.91 6 7
8 Yasmin Siraj SC of Boston 152.75 8 8
11 Kristiene Gong All Year FSC 143.30 17 10
16 Ellie Kawamura All Year FSC 121.94 16 14

2011 JR LADIES @ Nats
1 Courtney Hicks All Year FSC 173.22 1 1
2 Lauren Dinh Broadmoor SC 153.99 3 2
3 Katarina Kulgeyko Los Angeles FSC 146.62 2 3
4 McKinzie Daniels Broadmoor SC 138.59 5 5
5 Mary Beth Marley DuPage FSC 137.82 4 6
6 Ashley Cain Stars FSC of Texas 137.44 7 4
7 Polina Edmunds Peninsula SC 132.91 6 8
8 Haley Dunne Washington FSC 132.57 9 7
9 Nina Jiang Texas Gulf Coast FSC 128.55 8 9

2011 NOVICE @ Nats
1 Hannah Miller Lansing SC 122.30 3 1
2 Barbie Long Springfield FSC 121.85 2 2
3 Mariah Bell Rocky Mountain FSC 115.33 1 3
4 Amanda Hofmann Highland SC 100.16 9 4

Then you have Cesario, Wang, Gold, and Keiser skating very well so far this summer.

I think if Cesario does not end up getting Nebelhorn or Skate America, she should be in the mix for JGP spots. Lam, Siraj, Hicks, Dinh, Kulgeyko should all get an original spot if their training is going well. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hannah Miller and Barbie Long gain spots as they've been doing quite well this summer.

I don't know what's happening with Gong or Kawamura so I'm leaving them out for now. I don't think we'll see Bell or Hofmann with spots. Then we have Daniels, Marley, Cain, Edmunds, Dunne, and Jiang...who I suppose would be the first alternates - that is, if Marley and Cain will accept assignments in singles as well as pairs. I'd imagine Gold, Keiser, and Wang would be after them in the pecking order, especially considering that Jiang and Edmunds have done well so far this summer. I would have no problem if Gracie Gold got a spot before someone like Dunne, though- there's a pretty drastic and consistent difference in scoring for those two that IMO should override the fact that Dunne made Nationals and Gracie didn't. Although USFS hasn't been known to leapfrog skaters in the standings like that in the past (ie - giving Jiang an assignment while skipping over Dunne)- what normally happens is a cutoff around 7-9th place in junior and give no skaters below that point assignments, and move along to novice or senior skaters.

If all or most of our originally assigned skaters place well at their first event, though, there probably won't be too much to discuss about Jiang vs. Dunne vs. Gold...since none would get a spot anyway.

[Jenna]

I've heard, unofficially, that Gracie Gold could be added to the ISP.

[haribobo]

Good to hear. I think that any lady scoring over 90 points for a FS at a summer/fall comp should be added to the ISP. Doesn't mean they'll actually get an assignment, but for sure they should be seriously considered.