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  1. #1

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    2011-2012 US JGP Assignment Predictions/Discussion

    If my math is correct, the following will be age-ineligible next season.

    MEN - Alex Zahradnicek, Max Aaron, Alex Aiken, Steven Evans, Keegan Messing, Richard Dornbush, Nathan Chen (only one of the main contendors that is too young)

    PAIRS- Andrews/LeDuc, Bautista/Harris, Cain/Reagan, Denney/Raad, Poapst/Knierim, Sowa/Leenen
    -----------------

    That would leave-

    MEN- Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, Emmanuel Savary, David Wang, Philip Warren, Jordan Moeller, Nix Phengsy, Alexander Bjelde, Tim Dolensky (5th at Sectionals but could end up on JGP again, strong skater), perhaps a few others depending on how the FS goes

    PAIRS- whomever stays together of Calalang/Sidhu, Carman/Reiss, Duarte/Grafton, Garza/Frazier, Oltmanns/Santillan from the Junior Pairs...Aaron/Settlage, Goldberg/Dolkiewicz, and Shaughnessy/Morgan from the Novice Pairs should be included also.

    Three of the top 6 Novice Pairs are age ineligible- Liu/Perini (she too young- birthday 12/99), Fields/Pacini (he aging out- birthday 4/1990), and de la Mora/Wilson (she too young-I think- birthday is 1/99)


    LADIES- as usual, a complete overload of talent- Hicks, Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Edmunds, Cain, Jiang, Miller, Long, Bell....not to mention seniors like Lam, Gong, Siraj, F. Zhang, and the 3 who withdrew- Dobbs, Cesario, and Baga. Assuming Gao will move up to GP series.

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    Well Dobbs already competed on the SGP this season, so she won't be moving down to the JGP. Gao will move up to seniors, and there's a strong chance Siraj and Lam will as well pending nationals and junior worlds (if they are sent) results. If Baga were competing at nationals, I would say she'd move up too, but where she withdrew and has been fighting injuries all season, JGP or Senior Bs are more likely. Cesario will be turning 18 over the summer, so she might try for a host spot at SA and go to some Senior Bs, but technically she's still young enough for the JGP next season. Gong likely senior Bs, maybe a GP event if she does well at nationals. I think there's a strong chance we won't see Alexe and Caroline on the GP next season, so that might open up some spots.

    JGP, they might try and spread the wealth like they did this year. Hicks (unless she does what Agnes did and goes straight to seniors), Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Cain, Jiang, Edmunds (I think she'll be old enough) are all strong bets. Hannah Miller might get sent as well but usually at most only the novice champion gets JGP assignments and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers have to wait another year. There don't seem to be too many senior ladies that will go to the JGP next season - Cesario, Gong, Lam, Siraj, Kawamura, F. Zhang are all possibilities but senior Bs are more likely for the older girls (Cesario, Gong, Kawamura, Zhang) and if the younger girls (Siraj, Lam) skate up to their potential, they may make the jump to senior GP. This might mean Long and Bell could get JGP assignments next season.

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    Hicks should go to the senior GP if she can medal at jr. worlds (IF she even gets to go).

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    This talk should really come after Jr. Worlds cause it all depends how many JGP spots US will get. They need to be in the top 3 countries in each category to get 2 spots in every JGP event.

    In Ladies, Russia will more than likely be the top country with Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva and if Shoji and Zijun Li finish 3rd and 4th just like in JGP final, the american girls could be in trouble.
    Last edited by SamuraiK; 01-25-2011 at 11:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarrett View Post
    Hicks should go to the senior GP if she can medal at jr. worlds (IF she even gets to go).
    I agree. If Hicks skates tomorrow like she did last night she's not only going to Jr Worlds but she should jump to Seniors next year. Time to jettison underachievers like Alexe Gilles and Caroline Zhang. It's all about developing champions and Hicks could be one if she continues to improve. Frankly she blew me away last night.

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    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oleada View Post
    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.
    IMO, it hasn't worked for Agnes because she hasn't delivered and even she knows that according to one of the articles before Nationals. She could have been top 3 at either of her GP events this year but she blew the long each time. Hicks would get enough of rep if she could do well at Jr. Worlds like Agnes did last year. I don't see any reason for a world senior eligible skater to be on the JGP if they have the content to compete.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oleada View Post
    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.
    I agree. Agnes's subpar performances on the GP this season almost definitely would have been enough to get her into the JGPF, and she may have even been able to medal there. I personally think she would have been better off doing the JGP so she could get used to international competition without having all the pressure of senior GP events, and chances are she would have skated better, or even if she didn't, it would have been enough to make the final and gain ranking points. If Courtney does the JGP next season, she can go on to compete at senior nationals and still have a shot at making the senior world team. Jumping to the senior GP right away with a very low world standing will likely just lead to early start order and low PCS. Zhang and Gilles can be jettisoned by skaters who have already competed on and medaled at the JGP like Gao, Lam, and Siraj.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I agree. If Hicks skates tomorrow like she did last night she's not only going to Jr Worlds but she should jump to Seniors next year. Time to jettison underachievers like Alexe Gilles and Caroline Zhang. It's all about developing champions and Hicks could be one if she continues to improve. Frankly she blew me away last night.
    Yeah but look what happened to Mirai. She won SENIOR nationals at age 14 and then jumped to the senior GP the next season and had a disasterous season. She would have been better off doing the JGP for another season while she was adjusting to body changes and the pressure of being US champion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oleada View Post
    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.
    Plus, Courtney is younger. I think one run-through on the JGP would benefit her, and then she can go to seniors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by victoriaheidi View Post
    Plus, Courtney is younger. I think one run-through on the JGP would benefit her, and then she can go to seniors.
    Exactly.

    And diving right into the SGP (with a low rank, aka early start order aka low PCS) can be very intimidating if you don't have much experience under your belt, which Courtney doesn't. I think that had a lot to do with Agnes's meltdowns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oleada View Post
    Exactly.

    And diving right into the SGP (with a low rank, aka early start order aka low PCS) can be very intimidating if you don't have much experience under your belt, which Courtney doesn't. I think that had a lot to do with Agnes's meltdowns.
    Well said. Plus if Adelina and Liza move on to the senior GP next season, Courtney could very likely tear up the JGP which would give her a lot of ranking points, exposure, and confidence. I mean, Kanako stayed on the JGP a second year as a 15 year old and won everything, and now in her 1st season senior she's winning all sorts of medals, even at the GPF. The same thing happened to Yuna.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Well said. Plus if Adelina and Liza move on to the senior GP next season, Courtney could very likely tear up the JGP which would give her a lot of ranking points, exposure, and confidence. I mean, Kanako stayed on the JGP a second year as a 15 year old and won everything, and now in her 1st season senior she's winning all sorts of medals, even at the GPF. The same thing happened to Yuna.
    Yeah. Especially since she could do the JGP next year and still have one year out on the GP before the Olympic season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Yeah but look what happened to Mirai. She won SENIOR nationals at age 14 and then jumped to the senior GP the next season and had a disasterous season. She would have been better off doing the JGP for another season while she was adjusting to body changes and the pressure of being US champion.
    Umm, no. Mirai won her 2 JGP events and the JGPF. There was no point in her going back to the junior circuit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipso1 View Post
    Umm, no. Mirai won her 2 JGP events and the JGPF. There was no point in her going back to the junior circuit.
    Well considering her age it wouldn't have been crazy. Yuna won both her events and was 2nd at the JGPF and 2nd at Junior Worlds in 04-05 and then stayed on the junior circuit for the 05-06 season.

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    Yu-Na wasn't dominating the JGP circuit like Mirai did that year. Additionally, Mirai was eligible for senior championships after her first year on the JGP, while Yu-Na was not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Well said. Plus if Adelina and Liza move on to the senior GP next season, Courtney could very likely tear up the JGP which would give her a lot of ranking points, exposure, and confidence.
    Shoji and Li will likely stay at the JGP, Lipnitskaya will be old enough to go, Deeva, who has huge jumps and will do 3-3's next year for sure, will go too, Agafonova, Sheveleva... Anna Ovcharova will be back after injury... It's not going to be much easier next year

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    I've always been curious. What's the requirements for a Junior skater to be able to skate as a Senior at the US Nationals?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I've always been curious. What's the requirements for a Junior skater to be able to skate as a Senior at the US Nationals?
    Pass the USFS Senior Moves in the Field and Free Skating tests.

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    Wow there a very few JGP eligable pairs.....what are the requirements for new high potential teams to get an assignment? All these teams look weak...there are a few new teams coming together and I was wondering do they have to wait a year? Some of these teams will be good from the start....just add ice....will indy decide?

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