Will Sotnikova and Tuktymasheva have the same impact on the Sr. level as Mao/YuNa?

[olympic]

I was just perusing the scores that Sylvia posted in another thread and see how high they are for these 2 upcoming juniors, along with the natural jumping talent that they both possess, and the fact they belong to a powerful fed that can really promote the hell out of them.

I wanted to know if any of you had an opinion as to whether they will enter the Senior ranks at the top in the way Mao and YuNa did 4 years ago? Or will they not for some reason, perhaps simply being a threat to the podium, but not necessarily a gold threat?

[judgejudy27]

I think that depends alot on Mao and Yu Na Kim themselves. Mao and Yu Na came in at a good time. The old gaurd were all gone and the unimposing Meissner was World Champion. The field was ripe for a new world order and taking over by the young sensations, without any waiting or paying their dues behind any established stars. If the field stays like it has been so far this season then it would also be for the young Russians. If Yu Na comes back anywhere near her best and continues it, and Asada regains her form, it will be alot harder.

[pinky166]

Judging by how Kanako has become a threat her 1st season out, I'd say so. Kanako is nowhere near as good as Liza or Adelina and certainly wasn't last season. I think, especially if they go 1 and 2 at Junior Worlds, they will be a factor as soon as they move to the senior ranks (which I guess could be next season for GP only, or the season after for everything - it will be interesting to see if they take the Mao route and move to the senior GP next season or the Yuna route and stay on the Junior GP until they are old enough to compete at all senior events). This is all assuming puberty doesn't throw a wrench in their current abilities like it did with Mirai in the 08-09 season.

[miki88]

Most likely medal threats. Although I think Adelina will fare a little better than Liza at first. Liza still needs to become more consistent. I really can't wait for them to enter the senior circuit.

[Nomad]

I think a lot will depend on how they adjust to growth spurts, etc. Right now they're impressive, but that could change once their bodies start changing.

[oleada]

I hope they do! But like nomad said, growth spurts will play a factor. I'd also like to see them take on more challenging choreography. Aside from Sotnikova's flutz, both have generally good jump technique with a lot of height, so hopefully that will carry them through.

[dundas]

I doubt puberty monster will be very kind to them...

[pinky166]

I doubt puberty monster will be very kind to them...

It's hard to tell though. At age 14, Caroline Zhang and Kimmie Meissner were built a lot like Mao and Yuna at age 14, and then fast forward a few years and Meissner and Zhang couldn't have more different body types than Kim and Asada, and interestingly Meissner and Zhang both experienced a big fall from the top while Kim and Asada did not.

[Autumn_girl]

With this jump technique both will be OK, I'm sure. Even if they'll struggle during growth spurts their jump will be back like it already happened to Sotnikova last season. She has grown a lot, fell 4 times at Junior Nationals and everyone worried about her 'cause she disappeared and didn't compete after that. But she came back strong and jumps even higher than before, her 3-3's and 2A-3T are amazing.

[pani]

I think all well depend from how this girls woll have a deal with heigh problems.
Look, like Sotnikova grow up in last season on 13 cm and had problems with all jumps last season, but in this season her jumps look much better,
I think Tuktymasheva is too small now, she will grow in future- this could be a reall problem.
I think Shelepen could be on high level in Sochi, if she could save her jumps.
And look, like Muracami could have a bright future too

[bek]

I think Tuktymasheva is too small now, she will grow in future- this could be a reall problem.

It may be a problem but reports are both of her parents are quite small. Not to mention Elizaveta has really tremendous jump technique. Its hard to know for sure though.

[Jammers]

Give these girls a chance to grow up a little then we'll see how good they really are. Just look at the american girls in juniors a few years ago they dominated everything including two straight sweeps at Worlds. Yet 3 years later and none of them have won any major senior titles and except for Mirai probably never will.

[Jenna]

To answer the original question -- most certainly. They are receiving scores as high as the seniors now. I believe their impact next year will be huge.

[bek]

Give these girls a chance to grow up a little then we'll see how good they really are. Just look at the american girls in juniors a few years ago they dominated everything including two straight sweeps at Worlds. Yet 3 years later and none of them have won any major senior titles and except for Mirai probably never will.

I think Adelina and Elizaveta are better than those American girls. I mean its hard to know, but both girls have much better jumps IMO than lets say Zhang, and better skating skills too.

[senorita]

It may be a problem but reports are both of her parents are quite small. Not to mention Elizaveta has really tremendous jump technique. Its hard to know for sure though.

in an article some years ago it was written that when she was picked by Mishin team in a local event, they checked parents height, body type, and potential grown up height , they used to do it in my gymnastics team also

[bek]

I think its worth mentioning to that Adelina and Elizaveta are competiting against a much deeper Junior field than I think the American girls were competiting in. This was one of the deepest junior fields in years IMO.

[pinky166]

in an article some years ago it was written that when she was picked by Mishin team in a local event, they checked parents height, body type, and potential grown up height , they used to do it in my gymnastics team also

Mine too! They said my parents were borderline too tall and they are like 5'3" and 5'10" so not tall at all. I actually don't think it's that uncommon. Also Liza is very short and tiny now so I'd be surprised if she ever ended up that tall or big boned. It seems like a lot of skaters who are peanuts as young teenagers grow to be average height/size (Mirai, Caroline, Mao, Christina, etc) but none of them end up as amazons, not even by skating standards. For both girls future weight gain will potentially the bigger issue than growing too tall, but the way those girls train that shouldn't be much of a problem either.

[Seerek]

Any ideas as to whether the technical caller in senior competition (assuming a little more stricter) might affect their 3-3s being ratified (or not)?

Also, I'm not sure if the judges will scale down their component scores relative to the other skaters once they move to senior..

[oleada]

Any ideas as to whether the technical caller in senior competition (assuming a little more stricter) might affect their 3-3s being ratified (or not)?

I don't know, to be honest. I can't comment on Tuktamysheva's 3+3, but I rewatched Sotnikova's and it looked rotated for sure to me.

[pinky166]

I think all well depend from how this girls woll have a deal with heigh problems.
Look, like Sotnikova grow up in last season on 13 cm and had problems with all jumps last season, but in this season her jumps look much better,
I think Tuktymasheva is too small now, she will grow in future- this could be a reall problem.
I think Shelepen could be on high level in Sochi, if she could save her jumps.
And look, like Muracami could have a bright future too

Shelepen seems so tall and ungainly right now. If she can get a coach that can package her better, maybe she can use her height and long limbs to her advantage, become a Kostner type of skater,but she's currently lacking a lot of polish and her programs are quite messy, and it's just accentuated by her gangly body build.