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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    I didn't mean in that order, if Yuna is back to her old form she should easily win, but we don't know what she'll do there and it will be her first competition in a year so it's hard to tell what she will do.

    Murakami is not clearly above Gao, Christina put up a 58+ score in the SP at JGP Graz which is higher than both of Kanako's SP scores this season, and she scored 108 and 109 for her FS that had mistakes and one less element than a senior FS, Kanako beat that by like 2 points at SA but take out the spiral and she's below that. Christina has also been more consistent with her jumps thus far, their spins are comparable, and Gao probably has jumps that are more prone to +GOE. They are very comparable and if anyone is ahead at this point I'd say it's Gao.

    Further, if Christina is clean at nationals and hits 3f-3t in the SP and FS I don't see her not being on the World team.
    Juniors scores cant be compared to Seniors. I/K this year are already evidence of that. Murakami would definitely beat Gao on PCS and I dont think Gao would outjump her enough to compensate.

    If Gao does the hypothetical jumps you said all clean of course she would have a reasonable chance to make it but the judges would probably still put Flatt, Nagasu, and Czisny on the team over her at this point all things equal. We will see though.

    It is true nobody knows what Yu Na would do in her first event of the year. I see them giving Miki a 2nd World title as a last resort kind of option for them though, they are probably already ailing they had to give her the first one. She was never a big judges favorite compared to the other very top (Asada, Kim, Rochette, Kostner) skaters. The judges will be praying any of Asada, Kim, or Rochette show up at Worlds and skates even reasonably well, and if none of that occurs and Ando skates lights out then they might grudgingly give her the gold.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Juniors scores cant be compared to Seniors. I/K this year are already evidence of that. Murakami would definitely beat Gao on PCS and I dont think Gao would outjump her enough to compensate.
    ITA. For some reason, I feel like judges on the junior circuit tend to hand out more GOEs than on the senior-level. For example, while certainly it is very impressive that Adelina Sotnikova can do a 3Lz-3T and a 3Lz-3Lo, does it REALLY deserve such high GOE? I feel like the judges are more impressed when a young competitor does it rather than someone they expect more from.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Murakami is not clearly above Gao, Christina put up a 58+ score in the SP at JGP Graz which is higher than both of Kanako's SP scores this season, and she scored 108 and 109 for her FS that had mistakes and one less element than a senior FS, Kanako beat that by like 2 points at SA but take out the spiral and she's below that. Christina has also been more consistent with her jumps thus far, their spins are comparable, and Gao probably has jumps that are more prone to +GOE. They are very comparable and if anyone is ahead at this point I'd say it's Gao.
    Murakami has life and energy to her performances. I find Gao completely sleep inducing and void of personality. JMO.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by burntBREAD View Post
    ITA. For some reason, I feel like judges on the junior circuit tend to hand out more GOEs than on the senior-level. For example, while certainly it is very impressive that Adelina Sotnikova can do a 3Lz-3T and a 3Lz-3Lo, does it REALLY deserve such high GOE? I feel like the judges are more impressed when a young competitor does it rather than someone they expect more from.
    I agree with the positive GOE happy judges. I've also noticed that the technical callers at the junior competitions are also a little more lenient when it comes to calling under-rotations. Would the same 3-3 combinations be ratified at the Senior Grand Prix event?

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Murakami has life and energy to her performances. I find Gao completely sleep inducing and void of personality. JMO.
    Not a fan of Murakami's long program. Plus she has more technical issues to deal with than Gao - the lutz, flip and loop all have issues and are inconsistent.

    But back to topic, if Lepisto and Korpi can skate a clean competition, they are totally medalling, or in case Kim, Asada and Nagasu aren't back in form, winning!

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Juniors scores cant be compared to Seniors. I/K this year are already evidence of that. Murakami would definitely beat Gao on PCS and I dont think Gao would outjump her enough to compensate.

    If Gao does the hypothetical jumps you said all clean of course she would have a reasonable chance to make it but the judges would probably still put Flatt, Nagasu, and Czisny on the team over her at this point all things equal. We will see though.

    It is true nobody knows what Yu Na would do in her first event of the year. I see them giving Miki a 2nd World title as a last resort kind of option for them though, they are probably already ailing they had to give her the first one. She was never a big judges favorite compared to the other very top (Asada, Kim, Rochette, Kostner) skaters. The judges will be praying any of Asada, Kim, or Rochette show up at Worlds and skates even reasonably well, and if none of that occurs and Ando skates lights out then they might grudgingly give her the gold.
    You're right, but junior scores are usually LOWER than senior scores, especially regarding PCS. I mean, the Shibutani's have just made the jump to seniors and are winning medals already and getting high scores, Kanako just scored her PB FS score with a FS with a number of errors.

    As for nationals, Alissa is really inconsistent, it seems like because of SC people are convinced she's back and better than ever but I'm not so sure, and further a couple mistakes from her will get her down to like, 3 or 4 triples in the FS, which shouldn't hold her up over Christina if Christina is clean. Also GOE, Christina has big, nice fully rotated jumps and Alissa's jumps are fine but not great, the same goes for Rachael. Mirai has nice jumps when she rotates them, but her injury may hold her back, and now Rachael is injured too, so I'm not convinced they will be the 2 to go at this point.

  7. #47
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    The Shibutanis are skating miles better than last season. That is why they are able to medal in Senior Grand Prix events when they couldnt even medal at Junior Worlds last year. So of course their scores will go up, it in no way implies easier judging. Murakami has also improved since last season.

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    After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.
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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frau Muller View Post
    After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.
    Let's be honest though Ksenia is a much better skater than Joshi at this point. Joshi has a lot of potential for the future but she's not soup yet, sometimes she still seems awkward and juniorish. She also has UR issues, though they seemed improved at SA. I think she can definitely be top 10, probably top 5 at Euros but medaling will probably be a stretch this season.

  10. #50
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    At this point Knesia seem to be the best euro lady in term of what can offer in TES. She has complete set of triples, 3+3, minor edge problem and she can polish her program better and land her jumps a little more smoother, it will be hard to beat. As much as Calrolina PCS is above the rest of the euro ladies, program with Loop, Salcow and Toe will only get you so far now that you can only do two 2A and both salcow and 2A value is decrease.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderlen View Post
    As much as Calrolina PCS is above the rest of the euro ladies, program with Loop, Salcow and Toe will only get you so far now that you can only do two 2A and both salcow and 2A value is decrease.
    She hasn't been attempting Flips and Lutzes because she is injured.

  12. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frau Muller View Post
    After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.
    Yes, because sincerity and uplifting qualities are such an important part of PCS. She has nice potential but has UR issues, basic skating issues, and a serious lack of power/speed to deal with before she makes the podium even at Euros. Her sister, Viktoria, is much more likely to place top 5 than she is.

    But back to the original point, if Korpii and especially Lepisto could ever skate back-to-back clean performances, they could win a world title this year. Lepisto's Olympic freeskate is my favorite ladies skating performance of the last 5 years (of course excluding Gizmo and my beloved OES).

    But its between those two, Kostner, and the Russian girls. I like Makarova but her programs are poorly constructed this year. I really feel like Leonova has much better programs, in terms of choreography and transitions. If she can skate well at Cup of Russia this week and beat Makarova, I think Leonova can be a contender for the Euros ladies, too. Alright, flame away on that opinion, because I know it's unpopular!

  13. #53
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    If Lepisto and Korpii skate back-to-back clean programmes at Worlds?


    Hell would freeze over, pigs will fly, Carolina Kostner will also skate clean, etc., etc.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by vodkashot View Post
    If Lepisto and Korpii skate back-to-back clean programmes at Worlds?


    Hell would freeze over, pigs will fly, Carolina Kostner will also skate clean, etc., etc.
    Pigs can fly, silly!

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    Why do folks find it so unpleasant to speculate what Korpi could achieve by skating clean? Stranger things have happened, like Sandhu at the 2004 GP final. We have a pretty good idea how much Lepistö is able to score, but is it really just a complete waste of energy to estimate how much Korpi's new programs are worth when performed flawlessly?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kukkura View Post
    Why do folks find it so unpleasant to speculate what Korpi could achieve by skating clean? Stranger things have happened, like Sandhu at the 2004 GP final. We have a pretty good idea how much Lepistö is able to score, but is it really just a complete waste of energy to estimate how much Korpi's new programs are worth when performed flawlessly?
    I'd say clean Korpi would be maybe 5 points below a clean Lepisto for the FS. So for a SP I think she could score 60ish if clean, and for the FS maybe 115-120?

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    I think if Kiira were to nail all her elements in the SP and the LP, she could score at least 170.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    I think if Kiira were to nail all her elements in the SP and the LP, she could score at least 170.
    I'd say maybe 175-180, according to my above post

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    It is hard to say since the scores right now seem lower. I am pretty sure Lepisto would go past 180 no problem in this scenario though, even with the lower scores this year. And if she does that the only ones who could beat her are Kim obviously, a fully recovered Asada, Rochette if she returns, or maybe (but I am not sure at all) a totally clean Nagasu.

  20. #60

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    I'd say maybe 175-180, according to my above post
    I did not include GOEs in my estimate, which is why I said "at least". I was also conservative on the PCS, using Nebelhorn as my guide.
    Last edited by Nomad; 11-19-2010 at 11:00 PM.
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