PCS angst and potential World winners

[dinakt]

In light of jump value changes and huge PCS differences, I've been thinking- are results at Worlds appear almost predetermined?
Regardless of personal likes and dislikes:
Takahashi and Chan will receive PCS in mid- 8th, for every aspect, no matter what is the performance on the day ( at least it seems so now). Maybe Joubert will get into 8ths based on history, though who knows this year.
Abbott, Kozuka, Verner, Oda, Rippon ( insert your favorite with good SS here)- guys who I would think could challenge with a stellar performance- have been receiving PCS in mid- 7th. That's the difference of 5 points in SP, 10 in LP, 15 total.
With skaters getting 7:30 for a fall on a Quad ( thus losing 4 points total with the fall deduction) and 5:50 for a fall on 3A ( also losing 4 points), Takahashi or Chan can fall on Quad, fall on 3A, fall on footwork ( -1), have another scratchy landing ( -1 of the value) in the Long and have a fall in the short and still win over a squeaky clean Abbott or Verner or Kozuka who had the same jumping content but executed perfectly.
Is that, in fact, correct?

[briancoogaert]

Well, we've learnt with time that PCS at the beginning of the season are not PCS at the end. And IIRC, Slutskaya had amazing PCS in 2005-2006 GP series, and her PCS were same as Cohen and Arakawa by the Olympics !

[pinky166]

In light of jump value changes and huge PCS differences, I've been thinking- are results at Worlds appear almost predetermined?
Regardless of personal likes and dislikes:
Takahashi and Chan will receive PCS in mid- 8th, for every aspect, no matter what is the performance on the day ( at least it seems so now). Maybe Joubert will get into 8ths based on history, though who knows this year.
Abbott, Kozuka, Verner, Oda, Rippon ( insert your favorite with good SS here)- guys who I would think could challenge with a stellar performance- have been receiving PCS in mid- 7th. That's the difference of 5 points in SP, 10 in LP, 15 total.
With skaters getting 7:30 for a fall on a Quad ( thus losing 4 points total with the fall deduction) and 5:50 for a fall on 3A ( also losing 4 points), Takahashi or Chan can fall on Quad, fall on 3A, fall on footwork ( -1), have another scratchy landing ( -1 of the value) in the Long and have a fall in the short and still win over a squeaky clean Abbott or Verner or Kozuka who had the same jumping content but executed perfectly.
Is that, in fact, correct?

Yeah pretty much. Although at the Olympics Takahashi's fall on the UR quad resulted in lower PCS because the fall caused him to project less. However, I do tend to think if Abbott or Verner managed to start skating clean programs consistently, their scores will be really big, but where they are prone to mistakes (sometimes lots of them), the judges don't hold them up with PCS when they do falter. If you look at Jeremy's FS from nationals where he was totally clean, his score was huge, and Verner at the 07 Worlds managed 155+ with a fall on his last jump for his great FS when he was a newcomer and hadn't put up a score nearly that large all season. I think there's something to be said about a totally clean FS and the effect that has on the judges. Chan and Takahashi can get away with making mistakes and still get huge scores, but I feel for the Abbotts, Verners, Rippons, and Odas of the World, if they skate totally clean they will be able to match or nearly match the scores put up by Takahashi and Chan, but they have to be totally clean. I think this is what helped Evan earn such big scores, his PCS seemed to increase dramatically once he was consistently performing clean programs, and then at nationals when he had mistakes, the scores weren't so great, and Ryan Bradley beat him in the FS.

[judgejudy27]

Well, we've learnt with time that PCS at the beginning of the season are not PCS at the end. And IIRC, Slutskaya had amazing PCS in 2005-2006 GP series, and her PCS were same as Cohen and Arakawa by the Olympics !

That is because by the time of the Olympics Irina's skating was inferior to what it had been during her 15 month run of dominance. Her health issues and age (and the pressure and altitude) had caught up with her.

[dinakt]

I think all my uneasiness about PCS come from lack of differetiation in PCS scores. Chan's SS and Transitions are superior, mark them as such- but they do not justify dominance in P/E, choreography or interpretation. Fernandez might have average skills, but great interpretation and performance- mark him as such. Abbott has great transitions and interpretation ( does musicality come under interpretation?), ditto. Lori's Take Five is a better piece of choreoraphy than Phantom ( IMHO)- let it be reflected.
Blah blah blah...

[judgejudy27]

Chan is overmarked in everything. Even his jumps which are rather ordinary compared to the other men get huge GOE as if he were some stupendous jumper.

[Coco]

I hope some brave federation proposes that the transitions mark be exempt from the whole corridor thingy.

I don't think we'll ever see true marking in the PCS. It's an ordinal system, with marks going up or down .25 from a raw number. That's kind of how I read them, anyway.

But if a judge's transitions mark was judged against a set a guidelines that looks at % of elements with transitions into or out of them, significance of the transition, execution, etc., that might be a start to fixing the PCS problem.

[gkelly]

I hope some brave federation proposes that the transitions mark be exempt from the whole corridor thingy.

The way the "corridor" calculations work for PCS, you're better off being high on some of the components and low on some of the others than being either high or low on a few and right at the average on the rest:

http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=453

For most skaters the Transitions scores are lower than the others, or than the Skating Skills in particular.

If you think the skater was weak on transitions and really good at something else, by all means go way up on the good component and way down on the bad one. They'll cancel each other out and you'll be right in the middle of the corridor!

But if a judge's transitions mark was judged against a set a guidelines that looks at % of elements with transitions into or out of them, significance of the transition, execution, etc., that might be a start to fixing the PCS problem.

More specific guidelines would certainly be useful then just leaving it up to the judges to balance out the Difficulty, Variety, Intricacy, and Quality.

Care to brainstorm what some good guidelines might be?

[casken]

Chan is overmarked in everything. Even his jumps which are rather ordinary compared to the other men get huge GOE as if he were some stupendous jumper.

Are you ignoring all the connecting steps/movements around the jumps in assessing the GOE for Chan's jumps? Because the judges aren't.