Can Hanyu and Murakami make the world team this year & if so, who would they replace?

[JerseySlore]

I actually thought Murakami would go on to bump off Suzuki, but she clearly has some consistency issue. Plus, apart from spin, I can't think of one thing Murakami does better.

[pinky166]

I actually thought Murakami would go on to bump off Suzuki, but she clearly has some consistency issue. Plus, apart from spin, I can't think of one thing Murakami does better.

I agree the outlook is mixed right now regarding all the skaters. However, I will say that I don't see Mao or Miki being left off the World Team this season, despite any problems they may be having, just because the JSF probably knows that they both have a good shot at winning the world title or at least a medal if they skate well. Suzuki on the other hand I don't think has a realistic shot at being World Champion this season, she may have a shot at a medal, but with the kind of PCS she tends to get, even that might be tough. So I say if anyone gets bumped by Kanako, it's Akiko, but we'll have to see how they are skating later in the season to get a better idea. Further, if Mao (or Miki) is still (starts) having huge issues come winter then maybe one of them wouldn't go to Worlds, but I still tend to think they will both be there.

[robinhood]

I love Hanyu, as I love all the Japanese men field, but I think he needs yet another season before making to seniors. I believe, as some of you, that the real dark horse is Machida. He looks completly ready this season and I fear for Oda the most. Hanyu could go to Jr Worlds and win 2 in a row as Rippon did. That'll set him up nicely for the future
About the ladies, I love Kanako. But I just don't trust her jumping technique. She does quite a strange thing with her left leg and she might address that before it becomes a real issue. At the moment, though, I do fear Mao's position. Even with her last year's problems the jumps weren't as catastrophic as they have been this year. She has lots to proof in the next competition. As you say, Fumie was left out of a worlds spot when she was a silver medallist, and Slutskaya didn't make the world team either in 1999 (2000?) when she was a world medalist too. Nothing is for granted in deep fields like these

[Hedwig]

Yes. But this is Mao we are talking about. She is a huge star in Japan. I am the same opinion as Allezfred - if she is able to walk she will be on the team.
And I am not too afraid for her. She often has a bit of a rough start in the season and this one everything is new. She is relearning everything. She will be fine come January. *knocks on wood*

[miki88]

Yes. But this is Mao we are talking about. She is a huge star in Japan. I am the same opinion as Allezfred - if she is able to walk she will be on the team.
And I am not too afraid for her. She often has a bit of a rough start in the season and this one everything is new. She is relearning everything. She will be fine come January. *knocks on wood*

I agree. I do have a feeling that if Kanako does well this season, she'll replace Akiko. I like Akiko but Kanako has more hype.

[Jenna]

Not going to happen. Unless Mao is injured she'll be at Worlds.

No way. Mao has a LOT to prove after her disaster at NHK. If she skates similarly while the others excel at nationals, she will not be named!

[dinakt]

Men are to Japan what Pairs are to Russia. Too few spots! Japan truly needs 6. I can see Oda being bumped for Hanyu or Machida ( or Mura, who looked lovely at NHK), if Oda implodes during the GP series.
I HOPE Kozuka is safe as I am a fan; cannot think objectively there.
Mao has to be safe- with the Worlds in Japan and Mao being 2- time World Champion, and a celebrity. She'll be there barring an injury.
I am not yet panicking about Mao... she has time.

[allezfred]

No way. Mao has a LOT to prove after her disaster at NHK. If she skates similarly while the others excel at nationals, she will not be named!

Mao has nothing to prove. She is a two-time World champion and Olympic silver medallist, as well as a huge star in Japan. She is reworking her technique. Everybody knows that this takes time. It ain't going to be pretty for a while.

But if you think a healthy Mao is not going to be named to the Worlds team, then you obviously haven't been following very closely how the JSF selects skaters.

[Ziggy]

Asada should take this season out, it's silly.

I hope Murakami replaces Ando or Asada (Fred is making a good point but what if Asada places like 9th at Nats - still gonna be named? :/).

I hope Hanyu replaces Oda whom I used to love in Juniors but now he's mind numbingly boring.

I though that being freed from Morozov would change that but then I saw his music choices.

[Marco]

Personally

I want the teams to be Asada, Suzuki and Murakami; Takahashi, Kozuka and Hanyu.

Ando and Oda have peaked or in any event are just no longer willing to try the harder elements to break through. They of course have not had a break through artistically since what, 2005.

[ainouta]

Mao has nothing to prove. She is a two-time World champion and Olympic silver medallist, as well as a huge star in Japan. She is reworking her technique. Everybody knows that this takes time. It ain't going to be pretty for a while.

But if you think a healthy Mao is not going to be named to the Worlds team, then you obviously haven't been following very closely how the JSF selects skaters.

*cough2006OlympicTeamcoughYukariwuzrobbedcough*

I don't think that Murakami will bump off Suzuki. Akiko attempts more difficulty in the jumps, has more reliable technique, and also gets Nationals inflation (see: last year's results.) Besides, Akiko has more sentimental value in terms of her struggle with anorexia, etc.

I honestly think Hanyu has better programs in the past, and I'm hoping that Kozuka will finally gain some of the JSF's favor after being a reliable performer for a couple of years.

[pinky166]

Asada should take this season out, it's silly.

I hope Murakami replaces Ando or Asada (Fred is making a good point but what if Asada places like 9th at Nats - still gonna be named? :/).

I hope Hanyu replaces Oda whom I used to love in Juniors but now he's mind numbingly boring.

I though that being freed from Morozov would change that but then I saw his music choices.

I don't see why JSF would bump off Ando or Asada as both are world champions with a good chance at winning another title.

[judgejudy27]

The fact Ando was put on the 2006 Olympic team after coming only 6th at Nationals only illustrates allezfred's point about how the JSF pick their teams. And she wasnt even a World Champion or World medalist yet. And had finished lower than Nakano at the Grand Prix final that year too. However since she had been 4th and 6th at the previous two Worlds and was back then an up and coming star she still got the nod to go to the Olympics.

So Mao the 2 time and reigning World Champion could probably come 8th at Nationals and still be sent.

[ks777]

I think Hanyu is better than Machida. Machida does everything ok.. nothing particularly stands out.. His jumps aren't big, his skating skills aren't nowhere near takahashi or Kozuka, he doesn't have a soft knee like Oda and his jumps doesn't flow like Hanyu.
Machida just doesn't grab me like takahashi, kozuka and Hanyu. He is an inferior version of Oda to me.

[Marco]

The fact Ando was put on the 2006 Olympic team after coming only 6th at Nationals only illustrates allezfred's point about how the JSF pick their teams. And she wasnt even a World Champion or World medalist yet. And had finished lower than Nakano at the Grand Prix final that year too. However since she had been 4th and 6th at the previous two Worlds and was back then an up and coming star she still got the nod to go to the Olympics.

So Mao the 2 time and reigning World Champion could probably come 8th at Nationals and still be sent.

At 2006 they had that point system where both the 2005 and 2006 seasons were considered. Ando's consistency over the 2 GP seasons were rewarded. Nakano's surge came too late. In hindsight it was unfortunate for Olympic berth purposes that her peak years were 2006 to 2008.

Back on Asada - I obviously understand JFed can still decide to send an Asada who came 8th at Nationals, but it's by no means guaranteed. If Asada consistently does poorly all season I can see JFed ditching her for Worlds this season.

[judgejudy27]

They wont ditch Mao for Worlds since no matter how bad she does all season she has a great shot to win Worlds if she skated her best and if Kim doesnt skate her best. They dont have any other women that can win Worlds. Miki isnt likely going to win Worlds again barring a miracle, and Murakami would do extremely well to get a bronze this year.

[briancoogaert]

Murakami can replace Ando or Suzuki. But I don't think Yuzuru will replace any of the top 3 men.

[blue_idealist]

I don't think Hanyu will bump Takahashi or Kozuka. He's clearly not as good as Takahashi, even if he does his best and Dai makes mistakes. Hanyu's artistry also leaves a lot to be desired, compared with Kozuka. I actually wouldn't see him beating Oda, either, unless Oda has a meltdown close to what happened at Worlds 2010.

It might be easier for Murakami to displace someone due to the inconsistency of Asada, Ando, and Suzuki. If they look at placements alone, I don't think Asada is safe but she may be named to the team anyway due to her past results. Ando and Suzuki can either be really great or bomb, so if they happen to bomb and Murakami is good that day, she might sneak in there.

[Sylvia]

Japan Skating Federation's published criteria re. 2011 Worlds -- see: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...655#post515655

[lowtherlore]

Mao will be there as long as she can manage standing on her feet. They have invested in her too much, too long. She still is the marketing focus for Japanese figure skating, which is not a minor sport there. Not sending Mao to Worlds IN TOKYO would be equivalent of admitting that it has been a big hype after all, and it would be disastrous for domestic marketing of the sport in Japan.

IMO Mao doesn’t have intention to carry on with substantial overhaul of her jumping techniques, at least for now. It was obvious after watching her jumps at NHK. In that context, I think she has reasonable chance to regain her old mediocre form in time for Worlds. Whether it would be good for her in the long run, or whether Sato would be happy with that, is another matter.

I think Murakami is also a near lock for appearance at Worlds, unless she bomb beyond hope at their nationals. They seem anxious to showcase her on the big stage. And their media, sponsors and Japan the people have the thing for teen fetish. If she deliver this season, she could challenge Mao’s position as the marketing queen in Japan.

Ando has realistic chance to be on the podium. Time and again she proved she could skate relatively clean in big competitions. She could end up winning the whole thing again, if the likes of Yu-Na bomb at Worlds.

So I think it would be Asada, Murakami and Ando for Japanese ladies.

For men, IMO Takahashi is the only sure thing. As for Hanyu, a teen MALE figure skater is not exactly manga-theme friendly, and they could afford giving him another year or two. I think Oda, Kozuka, Machida and Hanyu will be all on even ground. I would give Oda and Kozuka some edge.