Can Hanyu and Murakami make the world team this year & if so, who would they replace?

[Marco]

The current top 4 men are Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka and Hanyu.

The current top 4 ladies are Asada, Ando, Suzuki and Murakami.

If Hanyu and Murakami somehow rock this season, maybe even make GPF or medal at 4CCs, is it possible for them to displace their senior countrymen on the world team?

I think Takahashi and Asada (despite recent struggles) are rather safe.

Oda is mentally unstable at big events and Kozuka hasn't been very consistent. I think they can both be at risk. Trouble is, neither have been geeting consistent high PCS from international judges.

Ando for some reason always gets good PCS and Suzuki mostly rotates and stands up on her jumps. I think unless someone gets injured or somehow withdraws, Murakami will have a hard time making Worlds.

Thoughts?

[jlai]

For a moment I thought this was another poll...

I must say the Japanese men are unstoppable this year. This year it's like the US men back in 09: 6-7 men competing for three spots!


No comments on who will be on the team but I'd say the US boys better bring their jumps to worlds...

[Tak]

Of the men I'd say Oda looks the most vulnerable. I havent seen him or his programs yet, so I have no idea how good or bad his is right now, but going by his performance last year, I doubt the judges at Nationals are going to be at all inclined to hold him up. If he doesnt deliver 2 solid programs and Hanyu does, my guess is Hanyu will be on the team.

The same is not true with the ladies however. Apart from injury, I dont see any way Murakami will make the team. Miki looked great in exhibitions, so did Suzuki. And I just dont see any way the JSF would leave the reigning World Champion off the team - in spite of her terrible debut. I just dont see it happening.

[judgejudy27]

I agree Kozuka and Oda are both vurnerable to being bumped by Hanya possibly. Of the two I would say Oda is the more vurnerable. That said I am guessing the current trio remains in tact for this year.

For the women I see Suzuki in great danger to be bumped by Murakami. In fact I am predicting it to happen. Suzuki is probably the most overrated skater on this forum. People talk about her like she is so great but really she is just a good and pretty consistent journeywomen who had a good year last year at the right time. She will never be a medal contender at the World level, Murakami has more chance of challenging for a World medal this year if the women stay this inconsistent than Suzuki ever would. They will want to send Asada, Ando, and Murakami to Worlds this year to see how they all compare. Asada has become unpredictable, Ando is past her prime but still doing respectably up to now, and Murakami is the future along with Asada.

Hanyu could bump Kozuka or Oda, especialy Oda, but I predict he wont this year. Murakami will make the World team and Suzuki will be off. My predictions.

[barbk]

The same is not true with the ladies however. Apart from injury, I dont see any way Murakami will make the team. Miki looked great in exhibitions, so did Suzuki. And I just dont see any way the JSF would leave the reigning World Champion off the team - in spite of her terrible debut. I just dont see it happening.

I agree. Particularly given the influence of endorsements, which Mao has in spades, and which seem to carry some weight. But as you say, injuries happen.

I'm also curious to see if Mao and Miki both continue to compete this entire quadrennial. It is a long haul between now and Sochi.

The nice thing for Japan is that pretty much no matter which three men or ladies they send, they're going to earn three spots for the following worlds. I don't think that there is another country where that is such a certainty.

[AliasJohnDoe]

Don't forget about Tatsuki Machida. He won 2010 Nebelhorn with a score of 221.22.

[maclou]

I see them wanting to keep Hanyu and Murakami off of the world team and sending them to junior worlds again instead. Their juniors aren't particularly strong this year but they'll probably want to keep the spots they have for next year's JGP. I'd even say that Machida has a better chance of making the world team than Yuzuru does.

However as for who would be bumped if someone new did make the team, for the guys I'd have to go with Kozuka. Other than Worlds (and kind of the Olympics but where he placed wasn't SO bad) Oda had a great season last year, much better than Kozuka and as for comps this season so far Oda had a bad showing in his SP at regionals but he did well in his long program and from the practice video I've seen his jumps look as good as ever. For the ladies I'd go with Akiko, not because I think she's overrated (not at all!) but just because she's not Mao or Miki and doesn't quite get the PCS she should.

[midori]

Don't forget about Tatsuki Machida. He won 2010 Nebelhorn with a score of 221.22.

Machida is a wonderful skater I hope he can go to Worlds next march. (The problem is I also want others to go to Worlds)

Also, do not count out Takahito Mura, who has 4t-3t along with huge 3a!

Seriously, we need 6 slots for Japanese men at Worlds.

[Marco]

Suzuki and Ando had held off their big tricks last season because of the stricter calling and the much reduced value of downgraded combos.

Now that underrotated combos still get 70%, I bet Suzuki and Ando will unleash the big combos again. (Suzuki with 3flip3toe or 3loop3toe and Ando with 3lutz3loop and both have 2axel3toes)

Murakami would have to earn her way up on PCS.

As an aside, I can see them leaving a reigning world champion off the world team. They left Suguri off the team in 2007 when she was a reigning silver medalist, won silvers in both her GPs and made GPF, and at that point was Japan's only world medalist entering Worlds in Japan.

Asada ofcourse is a reigning champion, but she is also bombing her GPs for a second straight second and this time with deadly pops. If she bombs Nationals too, I can see the JFed considering leaving her off. But then as some suggested, she might just pull through and make the team with all her endorsements and Worlds being in Japan etc. Also, she tends to peak later in the season anyway so this point may be moot.

[Marco]

And while Machida and Mura are both wonderful skaters too with big tricks, JFed is clearly trying to promote Hanyu as their next star.

The point about wanting Hanyu and Murakami to return to Junior Worlds for JGP spots next season is a valid one. JFed will have all the reasons in the world to lowball/ control their PCS.

Politically, I can see JFed viewing Oda as someone passed his peak and Kozuka as someone yet to peak. No matter how clean he was at the GPs, Oda did almost always have trouble at the big comps.

[SamuraiK]

Machida is actually Japans #4. He beat soundly Hanyu at Nationals and has received higher scores internationally so far. I think he has equal chances as Hanyu to overtake any of Oda or Kozuka. He has a shot of podium this week at SkateCanada, if he does it will certainly solidify his position.

Japanese nationals is gonna be so nail bitting to watch ....

[judgejudy27]

Suguri in 2007 is not the same as Asada this year. Everyone knew Suguri wasnt a real contender for the 2007 Worlds, Asada and Ando were their true threats. So it wasnt a big deal that Nakano went instead of her as the 3rd Japanese women after skating better than Fumie at Nationals. No matter how bad Asada skates throughout the season she is still a major threat to win Worlds this year, only Kim at her best can shut out Asada at her best from winning.

[Marco]

Does Machida have a quad? I don't like him nearly as much as I do Hanyu with the wonderful quad and 3axel. Hanyu's skating looks much more stylish (to me anyways).

[Hedwig]

Machida is actually Japans #4. He beat soundly Hanyu at Nationals and has received higher scores internationally so far. I think he has equal chances as Hanyu to overtake any of Oda or Kozuka. He has a shot of podium this week at SkateCanada, if he does it will certainly solidify his position.

Japanese nationals is gonna be so nail bitting to watch ....

I think Hanyu has a much better long term prospect. I was at Nebelhorn and while I appreciated Machida very much my money would be on Hanyu long term.

[MikiAndoFan#1]

I think Yuzuru doesn't have a chance. In my opinion, the three spots for the men are already filled. I have to agree with judgejudy27 regarding Kanako. I think she has a chance of beating Akiko, but only if Akiko doesn't skate clean and Kanako does. We'll see!

Does Machida have a quad?

Yes. He did one at Nebelhorn Trophy this year.

[NMURA]

I see them wanting to keep Hanyu and Murakami off of the world team and sending them to junior worlds again instead. Their juniors aren't particularly strong this year but they'll probably want to keep the spots they have for next year's JGP.

I don't think Murakami is needed for Jr worlds. As long as she can't do the 3loop consistently, she won't be much help. Losing badly against Russian girls doesn't help her reputation in the senior as well. If Murakami takes one spot, probably Shoji and Nishino take the rest. Even if they can maintain 3 spots, the total number of send-able skaters will be same (or less, if they failed save 3 spots).

2011 Murakami, Shoji, Nishino
2012 Shoji, Miyahara, Fujisawa?
or
2011 Shoji, Nishino, Fujisawa?
2012 Shoji, Miyahara

JGP spots will be OK as long as Shoji can fend off Li Zijun. That should not be a big problem.

As for junior men, they don't need maximum spots in the first place. And even if Hanyu wins again, there's no guarantee they can save 3 spots.

[Marco]

My reservation with Murakami is the same as what I had when Asada / Caroline Zhang first went senior. The flutz and the picking technique was fine by junior standards but suddenly got scrutinized much more harshly and they stagnated until they finally sacrificed consistency, time and results to rework their jumps.

[allezfred]

As an aside, I can see them leaving a reigning world champion off the world team.

Not going to happen. Unless Mao is injured she'll be at Worlds.

[KittenInTheSun]

Does Machida have a quad? I don't like him nearly as much as I do Hanyu with the wonderful quad and 3axel. Hanyu's skating looks much more stylish (to me anyways).

Machida is very short and Hanyu is slim and tall with longer limbs, but I can't say Hanyu is more stylish than Machida when the former always stoops while skating.

Yes, it's a personal thing, but I just can't stand skaters with bad postures.

Regarding the topic,
I think Hanyu needs one or two more years to get as high PCS as Oda and Kozuka.
I hope the best top 3 at Japanese Nationals will go to Tokyo worlds.

[AliasJohnDoe]

Does Machida have a quad? I don't like him nearly as much as I do Hanyu with the wonderful quad and 3axel. Hanyu's skating looks much more stylish (to me anyways).

Yes Machida has a quad. And I find Machida much more stylish than Hanyu at this point. Hanyu just needs a year or 2 to mature, as Machida did 2 years ago. Machida has great style this season and has matured nicely. Though he is tiny.

Machida has been posting some respectable scores internationally. Machida not only won 2010 Nebelhorn with a score of 221.22. He won the silver at 2010 4CC with a score of 217.48. Adam Rippon won the gold at 4CC. But Machida did beat Reynolds, Bradley, Mroz, Sawyer and D.Ten at 4CC 2010. Which is commendable.

Machida has been posting scores worthy of a World spot on the Japanese Men's team. I can't wait to see how he does at CoC next week. I actually felt bad for Machida waiting in the wings of such greats as Takahashi, Oda and Kozuka. Machida deserves his chance, especially with the results he's been getting this year. He has patiently waited and shown he is ready. Hanyu can wait a year or 2 like Machida has, and mature. But Japan does have a huge depth in men.