Who will medal at NHK?

[Polymer Bob]

I posted my predictions over in the NHK prediction thread. There, you pick the top 6. My logic is that despite one bad performance at the Japan Open, it's still Mao’s to lose. The European ladies have been not been doing well for a few years, despite a few medals here and there.
Caroline is usually top U.S. lady in ISU competition, whatever may happen at Nationals. She already has 3 GP medals, so I figure she can medal doing nothing more than recovering from her injuries. She and Ashley have reportedly been working hard on various aspects of their skating. Rachael has been weak this summer.

1. Mao ASADA
2. Caroline ZHANG
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Rachael FLATT
5. Carolina KOSTNER
6. Kanako MURAKAMI

[pinky166]

I posted my predictions over in the NHK prediction thread. There, you pick the top 6. My logic is that despite one bad performance at the Japan Open, it's still Mao’s to lose. The European ladies have been not been doing well for a few years, despite a few medals here and there.
Caroline is usually top U.S. lady in ISU competition, whatever may happen at Nationals. She already has 3 GP medals, so I figure she can medal doing nothing more than recovering from her injuries. She and Ashley have reportedly been working hard on various aspects of their skating. Rachael has been weak this summer.

1. Mao ASADA
2. Caroline ZHANG
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Rachael FLATT
5. Carolina KOSTNER
6. Kanako MURAKAMI

Kanako 6th on home ice is just not going to happen. I bet she places above Flatt, Wagner, and Zhang, and that none of the US ladies medal. Mao and Kanako will be on the podium along with a Euro lady, likely either Kostner or Korpi.

[Nomad]

Caroline is usually top U.S. lady in ISU competition, whatever may happen at Nationals...

[pinky166]

I still say it's crazy to assume she'll beat Kanako, who is so dearly loved by the JSF and can skate circles around Caroline.

[Polymer Bob]

I still say it's crazy to assume she'll beat Kanako, who is so dearly loved by the JSF and can skate circles around Caroline.

The JSF is not judging this event.

[miki88]

Kanako is pretty consistent and as someone who swept the junior circuit last year, she has more favor from the ISU judges than many of the American skaters skating at this event. I think she is definitely a contender for at least a podium spot. Where she would place will depend on how Mao and the European ladies do.

[pinky166]

The JSF is not judging this event.

So? It's still in Japan. And she's junior world champ and a very good skater.

[Sylvia]

Kanako Murakami skated a strong SP (65.62) but only landed 3 triples in her FS (98.46) at Chubu Regionals earlier this month. She reportedly withdrew from Nebelhorn Trophy due to a boot problem.

Rachael Flatt had a rough SP (46.18) but a very good FS (117.21, 7 triples landed) at her 2nd of 2 summer competitions, Colorado Springs Invitational, last month.

Who knows what will happen next week?

[Satellitegirl]

I chose Mao, Rachael, and Ashley. Possibly Carolina for the 3rd spot instead.

[oleada]

Video of Kanako's SP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zldnLK2b2g0&translated=1
She landed 3T+3T, 2A and 3F.

Kanako is pretty consistent and as someone who swept the junior circuit last year, she has more favor from the ISU judges than many of the American skaters skating at this event. I think she is definitely a contender for at least a podium spot. Where she would place will depend on how Mao and the European ladies do.

The JSF is not judging this event.

The JSF might not be judging, but judges of any nation tend to like skaters with great basics, effortless speed, musicality, charisma and expression - all of which Kanako has in spades, and Caroline and Rachael do not. I don't know what will happen, but if Kanako skates as well as she is capable of (and she's reportedly trying a 3F+3T in the LP this year), I think she'll be on the podium, making a big statement.

[peibeck]

Kanako's a very quick skater with lovely edges. Her presentation is nice but not exceptional at this point. I'm not sure if she has a 3 loop, and her lutz is not the stongest of her jumps. But the 3 sal/2 loop/2 loop combo she did at junior worlds was incredible. No one should underestimate how she could factor into this field.

[oleada]

peibeck, it looks like she'll be attempting a solo 3Lo in the LP, based on what was posted in the Japan national competitions thread in the K&C. However, she popped it to a single in this competition (along with several other jumps).

[NMURA]

Maybe not as blatant as Skate Canada though, home favoritism is quite common at NHK trophy. And it's in Nagoya, not just Japan. I think GBR and CAN will be Japan's close allies in this event. That's one reason of inviting skaters from the alternate lists. As always there are majority European judges (six). They wouldn't want two Americans on the podium.

Since 2004, all Japanese ladies (except Shoko Ishikawa) have won NHK trophy medals at their first appearances. (Ando 2004, Nakano 2005, Asada 2006, Takeda 2007, Suzuki 2008). Murakami will win a medal by this rule.

[mrinalini]

Video of Kanako's SP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zldnLK2b2g0&translated=1
She landed 3T+3T, 2A and 3F.

I had a better impression of her last season. Here she has abhorrent choreography, and that kick into the flip is not a pretty sight. The baby doll costume has got to go, too. Her performance quality reminds me of Mirai's before she went to Frank in that it's overly cutesy and juvenile - this was the main reason why I couldn't warm up to Mirai when she was with Charlene, so I hope Kanako gets that sorted out. It's strange because I think she actually looks older in the face than even Mao (I don't know if it's due to her make-up or whatever), and yet her juniorish choreography totally plays against her facial appearance.

Minor gripes aside, ITA that she has better scoring potential than Caroline and Kiira (and possibly Rachael and Ashley, too, if they're both in an early season funk).

[peibeck]

peibeck, it looks like she'll be attempting a solo 3Lo in the LP, based on what was posted in the Japan national competitions thread in the K&C. However, she popped it to a single in this competition (along with several other jumps).

Good to know she is adding it to the free program this season, thanks oleada!

[pinky166]

I had a better impression of her last season. Here she has abhorrent choreography, and that kick into the flip is not a pretty sight. The baby doll costume has got to go, too. Her performance quality reminds me of Mirai's before she went to Frank in that it's overly cutesy and juvenile - this was the main reason why I couldn't warm up to Mirai when she was with Charlene, so I hope Kanako gets that sorted out. It's strange because I think she actually looks older in the face than even Mao (I don't know if it's due to her make-up or whatever), and yet her juniorish choreography totally plays against her facial appearance.

Minor gripes aside, ITA that she has better scoring potential than Caroline and Kiira (and possibly Rachael and Ashley, too, if they're both in an early season funk).

Cutesy works for Kanako, she's little and cute and good at skating to upbeat music, so I find no problem with her new program/costume. I was actually noticing how much taller and more mature she looks in that video, looks like she's grown a good few inches since last season.

[chipso1]

Kanako has some serious technical issues of her own (flutz, high kick into Lutz and flip, and some nervous UR tendencies). She's definitely going to be a podium threat here, but I don't think she's a lock to medal. There are lots of talented (and inconsistent) girls fighting for medals here.

[Autumn_girl]

Kanako has some serious technical issues of her own (flutz, high kick into Lutz and flip, and some nervous UR tendencies). She's definitely going to be a podium threat here, but I don't think she's a lock to medal. There are lots of talented (and inconsistent) girls fighting for medals here.

It's not like other girls are perfect. All of them have their issues. Kanako is not the only one with the flutz and URs (though she usually gets less URs than Ashley, for example), she is more consistent than US girls except maybe Flatt, and more consistent than Kostner and Korpi. And she will skate at home, I think it's an advantage for her

[chipso1]

It's not like other girls are perfect.

When did I say this? I realize that the other ladies have their own flaws too, but some posters here are making it seem like Kanako is going to simply waltz in and take a medal unchallenged. I don't think it will be that easy for her, though I do think she has a good chance at a medal.

[NMURA]

No one says "unchallenged", but I believe Murakami is in the position "to be challenged" in this field. Her flaws will be overlooked this time as a home advantage, but not for the Americans. That's my reasoning.

ETA
Murakami is extremely consistent in the SP. She hasn't made any visible errors in past 8 or 9 competitions. Her 3-3 is now becoming perfect. I think no American can beat her in the SP. That will help her in the FS, especially in PCS.