Who will medal at NHK?

**babayaga** · 10-12-2010, 06:32 PM

I voted for Mao, Kiira, and Carolina. Seeing Kiira's programs this year, I am quite confident she will medal. I am not sure about Carolina at all, she can be replaced by Rachel or Ashley. I would love to see Kanako on the podium but this field is too strong for her yet, IMO. Of course, if Mao skates the way she did at JO, anything can happen. Even home ice might not help..

**peibeck** · 10-12-2010, 06:38 PM

Normally I would have though Mao would have dominated this field, but after watching the vid of her Japan Open performance (and that was "at home").... If she skates that poorly, I could imagine her off the podium. (Remember last season, she didn't even make the final.)

Korpi has had good, thought not spectacular, results already this season. Same with Helgesson, though even getting sixth in this field would be an awesome result for her.

Kostner will be Kostner: she could land 2 jumps or 7 in her FS.

Flatt has had some weak outings in her summer events, and isn't generally a great early season skater to start with.

Murakami and Wagner both seem hungry, so I expect at least one of them to be a "surprise" medalist.

Zhang is a total question mark. I guess we will see how relearning her jump technique is affecting her, and if she gets repeatedly dinged with the dreaded "<<."

My biggest wishes: I hope Gedevanishvili brings the voids,

and McCorkell doesn't embarass herself.

**mrinalini** · 10-12-2010, 06:44 PM

I voted for Mao, Rachael and Ashley. I suppose Kanako could knock out one of the Americans if she has her big breakthrough on home ground. Carolina is usually unsteady this early in the season (as if she isn't the whole year through, ha ha), and I reckon Kiira could sneak in there too if she lands enough triples and earns her usual SWP bonus.

Far be it for me to be the millionth person to jump on the Caroline doom wagon, but if her ship hasn't already sailed, it might be coming into port anytime soon what with Gao, Zawadzki and a bunch of insanely talented Russian youngsters breaking through the ranks.

**judgejudy27** · 10-12-2010, 07:26 PM

I am surprised anyone thinks Zhang will medal in this field.

**olympic** · 10-12-2010, 07:33 PM

-I would personally love to see Ashley nail an SP, get some confidence, and start a breakthrough to the top tier for the season. She tweeted earlier this year that nailed a true lutz in practice

-I still think Mao Asada is in the pole position despite her poor performance in the JPN Open

-Korpi looks good early this season.

-Caro is completely unpredictable. Sometimes I fear her time has passed, though.

-Rachael is never really that great in the 'season opener', as someone upthread mentioned.

-I'm not expecting anything from Zhang, but would like to see technical improvements if that's possible.....

-Murakami may delight, but I don't know if she'll be held back being a new Senior and all, even if she is skating in JPN.

-Gede is never really that 'hot' in the early season either I don't think

**blue_idealist** · 10-12-2010, 07:47 PM

Mao for sure, and I said Rachel and Ashley as well, but Kiira also has a good chance. Of course, anything could happen.

**newbatgirl** · 10-12-2010, 08:52 PM

I'm pulling for Ashley here. If she has truly fixed her lutz, she can be a factor. Of course, she says it's fixed on Twitter but I have not actually seen her jump lately.

**NMURA** · 10-12-2010, 09:28 PM

I've checked with wikipedia. Since the first event of 1979, NO American woman has won NHK trophy. The last American silver medalist was Tonia Kwiatkowski in 1996, and Ashley Wagner of last year is the ONLY American medalist since then. At least one European is on the podium in past 20 years (except two occasions of the Japanese sweep). American fans, it's better to be less optimistic.

**peibeck** · 10-12-2010, 09:52 PM

Originally Posted by NMURA

American fans, it's better to be less optimistic.

Interesting stats. I would think a lot of this has to do with who all was competing at the event and not just because of their nationality, however.

I don't ever remember Kwan, Lipinski, Cohen, or Sarah Hughes ever competing at NHK, and from '96 until about '06 they would have been amongst the top American ladies around to compete during those years. I know Meissner did compete once at NHK, I can't remember if she was still the reigning U.S. champ then or not. (I do remember she didn't do very well though.)

**pinky166** · 10-12-2010, 10:11 PM

Mao gold
Kanako silver
Caro, Ashley and Kiira duke it out for the bronze

Rachael, Caroline, Elene G could be potential spoilers, but I honestly think the medalists will be 3 of the 5 ladies I mentioned initially.

**Nomad** · 10-12-2010, 10:15 PM

Meissner competed at NHK in 2005. She finished 5th.

**peibeck** · 10-12-2010, 10:49 PM

Originally Posted by Nomad

Meissner competed at NHK in 2005. She finished 5th.

Okay, so she was the bronze medalist in the U.S. that year and she was 4th at Junior Worlds (since she wasn't old enough to compete at senior worlds), which would have been her last "big" competion before being able to do senior GPs in the 05-06 season.

**Polymer Bob** · 10-13-2010, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by newbatgirl

I'm pulling for Ashley here. If she has truly fixed her lutz, she can be a factor. Of course, she says it's fixed on Twitter but I have not actually seen her jump lately.

We have been hearing reports all summer of Ashley and Caroline improving their jumps and other issues. As soon as a report comes out, some expert tells us how that's not possible in such a short time.

I guess we will find out in 10 days.

**L'amour** · 10-13-2010, 12:43 PM

Asada - I think she is the best on this field, I not a fan of hers but when she is on, she is the best.

Flat - not a fan at all, but I think she is medal contender.

Korpi - my personal favorite from this field. I think looks great this season. She recevid some nice scores and her LP still have room to grow. She just need to be ON!

She is not very consistent but I think she migth have a chance to win teh bronze.

Wagner - I really like her and would be great to see her still a medal here.

**smarts1** · 10-13-2010, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by Polymer Bob

We have been hearing reports all summer of Ashley and Caroline improving their jumps and other issues. As soon as a report comes out, some expert tells us how that's not possible in such a short time.

I guess we will find out in 10 days.

Didn't Ashley not get dinged for an edge call on her lutz at the summer comps she went to?

**pinky166** · 10-13-2010, 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by smarts1

Didn't Ashley not get dinged for an edge call on her lutz at the summer comps she went to?

Apparently at Liberty she didn't get an edge call but the lutz was 2 footed.

**olympic** · 10-13-2010, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by pinky166

Apparently at Liberty she didn't get an edge call but the lutz was 2 footed.

That's good news if Ashley can get a proper outside edge in a more pressure filled situation like competition, even if she 2-ftd. the landing!

**Polymer Bob** · 10-13-2010, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by olympic

That's good news if Ashley can get a proper outside edge in a more pressure filled situation like competition, even if she 2-ftd. the landing!

But which is a worse deduction? ....... a 2-foot or a wrong edge?

**Chris_E** · 10-13-2010, 06:57 PM

Originally Posted by Polymer Bob

But which is a worse deduction? ....... a 2-foot or a wrong edge?

I think its about the same. Hopefully the jump has just been getting stronger for her since then.

**olympic** · 10-13-2010, 10:22 PM

Originally Posted by Polymer Bob

But which is a worse deduction? ....... a 2-foot or a wrong edge?

What I mean is that an edge is probably harder to fix than 2 ft. If she gets a true edge, the 2 ft. will clear up with confidence and practice

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