2010-2011 U.S. Junior Ladies & JGP assignments discussion

[Polymer Bob]

I won't say it's a good thing or bad, but the USFSA likes to shoot from the hip. They use early JGP results to determine later assignments.

[bek]

I won't say it's a good thing or bad, but the USFSA likes to shoot from the hip. They use early JGP results to determine later assignments.

I actually think using early JGP assignments is a good idea. The Russians should have given Sofia a JGP before they gave Anna or Rosa another JGP last year. I like the rule of a medal at the JGP will give you another shot.

I thought it was a mistake for the USFSA to give Ellie a second spot though. It was pretty unfair to Gong and well I thought they should have given Agnes a shot as well before given Ellie a second one.

[haribobo]

Vanessa LAM is now listed as an alternate for the JGP.

She already was listed as an alt a few weeks ago. But good for her- I hope she gets one!

[Jenna]

Oops. Perhaps I just noticed it because of her spectacular showing in Artesia. I hope she does too!

[jlai]

I actually think using early JGP assignments is a good idea. The Russians should have given Sofia a JGP before they gave Anna or Rosa another JGP last year. I like the rule of a medal at the JGP will give you another shot.

I thought it was a mistake for the USFSA to give Ellie a second spot though. It was pretty unfair to Gong and well I thought they should have given Agnes a shot as well before given Ellie a second one.

Gong, like Kawamura, was 4th in the first jgp last year and her score was comparable to Kawamura's. (in fact, Kawamura had the higher season's best last season.)

But yeah, Agnes Z. should have gone...

[Sylvia]

Vanessa LAM is now listed as an alternate for the JGP.

Vanessa Lam (J8 at 2010 Nationals plus some very good competition performances this summer) was first listed as a JGP alternate for JPN (#4) but not GBR (#5), then listed again for GER (#6) and CZE (#7) today. Even if she doesn't end up getting an assignment, it's noteworthy to be listed as an alternate. Felicia Zhang (J6) and Ashley Cain (N2) are the other two without assignments at this time, and with both Siraj and Gong now assigned to GBR, there are 4 skaters still to compete and 4 open slots left (GER & CZE).

I thought it was a mistake for the USFSA to give Ellie a second spot though. It was pretty unfair to Gong and well I thought they should have given Agnes a shot as well before given Ellie a second one.

IIRC, Gong had a slightly higher total score than Kawamura in their 4th place finishes. I think it was an advantage that Kawamura went out in the 1st JGP while Gong was assigned after the initial round to a later one (#4). One of USFS' goals is to try and qualify as many skaters as possible to the Final, and so sending out a 4th place finisher (Kawamura to #6) most likely trumped sending out Zawadzki to her 1st (and only) JGP. And Kawamura ended up justifying her 2nd assignment by winning the bronze and making it to the Final.

[Jenna]

I agree that USFS first and foremost goal is to qualify skaters for the final, which they were very successful in last year. I'm a bit surprised to see they reassigned Gong so quickly with Gao, Baga, and Wang left to skate. Sure, she got second, but her score was far behind Yasmin's. At this point, I highly doubt Jiang or Cesario will see a second event.

[jlai]

I think those who ranked higher at nationals will always have an advantage over girls who ranked lower, since the way to reward higher-ranked jr skaters is to give them first dips in JGP assignments. So Kawamura getting jgp over Gong is a no-brainer because they both placed 4th in the first event but Kawamura did better at nationals (and therefore earns her jgp assignments before Gong).

That said, I'd send Agnes Z before I'd send Zhou and wait and distribute second jgps to the highest finishers among the remaining ladies. JMHO

[pinky166]

I agree that USFS first and foremost goal is to qualify skaters for the final, which they were very successful in last year. I'm a bit surprised to see they reassigned Gong so quickly with Gao, Baga, and Wang left to skate. Sure, she got second, but her score was far behind Yasmin's. At this point, I highly doubt Jiang or Cesario will see a second event.

I don't think so. Kiri is just coming off an injury and her scores at her summer competition weren't so hot, so I think a 4th or 5th place finish for her at her 1st event is likely, and with the depth of the field at Graz that's probably the highest Lindsay would finish. Gao barring a meltdown will get a 2nd event, but if Davis, Baga, Wang all finish 4th/5th or lower at events, which is plausible given the unpredictability of juniors and depth of the field this season, USFSA might just give Nina and Samantha 2nd events before any of the other girls where they competed early. Nina especially I hope is considered for a 2nd spot, she put up a good score despite finishing 5th and I think she'd have a good shot at making the final (maybe win silver at a 2nd event and qualify like Anna did last year with 2nd and 5th place finishes).

[pinky166]

But actually, looking at the field in Japan, it's not that deep. There's a good chance Kiri and/or Angela can medal. I think a lot will depend on if Ovcharova competes and if she's in good form if she does (she also has/is recovering from an injury). She and Kiri went head-to-head twice last season, and Anna beat Kiri both times (2nd time scores were really close though). Further, with Hae-Jin Kim most likely out (she was in an accident recently, needs surgery on leg I believe), the only threats seems to be Shion Kokuben who was 3rd in Brazov, but her score wasn't that high, Eri Nishimura, who is the Canadian Junior Champion but doesn't have all her triples, and Nikol Gosvani, who was decent last year but apparently skated really well at test skates with high technical content. Both Russian girls could potentially beat out both US ladies (or not), but one of them should be able to get bronze at least, unless it's one of those weird competitions where the results are all over the place.

[chipso1]

I think it's very plausible for both Baga and Wang to be top 4 in Japan. With Ovcharova injured/coming off injury, I think their toughest competition will actually come from the Japanese ladies; I see Risa Shoji and Shion Kokubun doing quite well. If I were to predict at this point in time, I have those two on the podium with Angela Wang, though it's anybody's guess as to what the order will be. Rounding out the top 6 could be Baga, Ovcharova and Kemanai.

Is Eri Nishimura really that much of a threat at the Japan JGP? I know she has through the 3Lo, but has she landed the flip or Lutz yet? Just wondering, as I don't know much about her. Her winning junior score from Canadian Nationals this year was 115.55 (SP: 42.82; FS: 72.73).

Back on topic...I think it's possible Jiang could get a second event, but a lot of it depends on how well Davis does in Graz this week and what Baga/Wang do in Japan. If Lindsey and one of Baga/Wang finish lower than 5th, then I would say Nina is likely to get assigned to #6 or #7. With her 5th place finish in Courcheval, she has an outside chance at qualifying for the Final, and based on past history, the USFS might assign her a second event (in hopes that she does qualify) rather than giving someone like Lam a (one and only) event.

This is pure speculation (), but I could see it playing out like this:

JGP #5 (Sheffield): Siraj & Gong
JGP #6 (Dresden): Cesario & Gao
JGP #7 (Ostrava): Baga & Wang (or Jiang)

[bek]

I think those who ranked higher at nationals will always have an advantage over girls who ranked lower, since the way to reward higher-ranked jr skaters is to give them first dips in JGP assignments. So Kawamura getting jgp over Gong is a no-brainer because they both placed 4th in the first event but Kawamura did better at nationals (and therefore earns her jgp assignments before Gong).

That said, I'd send Agnes Z before I'd send Zhou and wait and distribute second jgps to the highest finishers among the remaining ladies. JMHO

But Ellie put up a very low score her first event. And did a program with low tech content too. They should have at least waited to see if other girls would perform better before they gave her a 2nd spot. And yes I think Gong who scored a bit higher deserved a second spot more. What if Gong had done even better than 4th? And then you had Baga and Gao.

They'd have been more than justified given not only the JGP but also how I believe Ellie was skating in summer competitions not to give her another spot. Nationals was almost a year ago after all, and Ellie hadn't been skating well recently.

And as for assigning Gong, I think Gong deserved to be assigned with her silver medal.

[chipso1]

But Ellie put up a very low score her first event. And did a program with low tech content too. They should have at least waited to see if other girls would perform better before they gave her a 2nd spot. And yes I think Gong who scored a bit higher deserved a second spot more. What if Gong had done even better than 4th? And then you had Baga and Gao.

They'd have been more than justified given not only the JGP but also how I believe Ellie was skating in summer competitions not to give her another spot. Nationals was almost a year ago after all, and Ellie hadn't been skating well recently.

And as for assigning Gong, I think Gong deserved to be assigned with her silver medal.

Look, it's not a perfect system. Gong scored 123.74 at her event last year to Ellie's 120.46, which she scored at her first event in Hungary. That's hardly a big difference. Ellie went on to score 131.33 at her second event in Croatia.

Ellie may have had lower technical content, but Kristiene had her own issues last season, including severe UR problems. The USFS had to do their best guessing as to who would perform better in a second event, and I think they did a fairly good job seeing as Ellie qualified for the Final.

[pinky166]

But Ellie put up a very low score her first event. And did a program with low tech content too. They should have at least waited to see if other girls would perform better before they gave her a 2nd spot. And yes I think Gong who scored a bit higher deserved a second spot more. What if Gong had done even better than 4th? And then you had Baga and Gao.

They'd have been more than justified given not only the JGP but also how I believe Ellie was skating in summer competitions not to give her another spot. Nationals was almost a year ago after all, and Ellie hadn't been skating well recently.

And as for assigning Gong, I think Gong deserved to be assigned with her silver medal.

Ellie score 120+ at Budapest and Kristeine scored 123+ at Minsk so really there scores were pretty comparable, but Ellie competed earlier so she got sent instead of Kristeine. It's not like this year where Nina scored 10 points higher than Cesario despite finishing lower. Further, in terms of qualifying for the final, a 5th and 2nd place finish would qualify before a 4th and 3rd place finish, and considering Cesario's score at Brazov and how many triples were marked UR, chances of her finishing higher than 3rd at a 2nd event don't seem likely. Nina however had a higher score and only one downgrade (on the back end of a 3t-3t combo) so sending her may be less risky, as she could very feasibly win silver at a 2nd event.

I could potentially see a Jiang vs Cesario decision being made like Kawamura vs Gong last season, unless someone else finishes 4th or 5th with a higher score than both. Looking at protocols, Nina probably has a better shot at making the final as Samantha got pretty lucky that Brazov was a washout and her score was good enough for 4th.

[jlai]

But Ellie put up a very low score her first event. And did a program with low tech content too.

Ellie got a 120, which was only 3 points lower than what Gong got in her first event. I believe Gong's only clean triple in the long was a 3 toe.

All things considered, it's a tossup, and Ellie's medal at nationals would have given her first dips.

I think they should have given Agnes Z. a shot and waited a bit, but Gong wasn't robbed last season imho

[pinky166]

Ellie got a 120, which was only 3 points lower than what Gong got in her first event. I believe Gong's only clean triple in the long was a 3 toe.

All things considered, it's a tossup, and Ellie's medal at nationals would have given her first dips.

I think they should have given Agnes Z. a shot and waited a bit, but Gong wasn't robbed last season imho

I agree with you about Agnes, the junior ladies event this year and last year was underwhelming, so DeeDee, Ellie, and Christina went 1,2, 3 and none of them cracked 80 for the FS. This year, Nina bombed the SP and Kiri and Angela bombed the FS, so Lindsay ended up 3rd even though she was 5th in the SP and 4th in the FS, and while about 20 points separated 1st from 2nd and 2nd from 3rd, 20 points lower than 3rd corresponded to 10th place. This is why I love junior ladies

Kiri Baga 2 9
Nina Jaing 11 3
Angela Wang 3 10

Only in juniors do you see score breakdowns like that. I personally was very surprised in 09 when DeeDee won the title and this year when Lindsay won bronze, but looking at the scores explains a lot.

[bek]

Ellie got a 120, which was only 3 points lower than what Gong got in her first event. I believe Gong's only clean triple in the long was a 3 toe.

All things considered, it's a tossup, and Ellie's medal at nationals would have given her first dips.

I think they should have given Agnes Z. a shot and waited a bit, but Gong wasn't robbed last season imho

When I truly think about it your right about Ellie vs Gong. But I guess I can say the worst thing was that they didn't wait. Ellie's score content etc wasn't that great, and it surely wouldn't have hurt to see how the other girls did first. And it was especially glaring because someone like Agnes didn't get a spot at all. And I know Agnes didn't make it to nationals, but that was frankly due to a tough sectionals.

I'm not sure why the USA was so gungho on the importance of Ellie making the JGPF for the JGPF's sake. I thought it was pretty darn clear if Ellie went she'd likely place last if everyone else skated decently. I'd think giving someone like Agnes experience would have been more important long term. I'd have looked at her and Gong's 4th place finishes as a golden opportunity to give Agnes a shot (to be frank)

[pinky166]

Oh and about Japan, Gosviani was reportedly landing 3-3s and 2a-3t at her test skate, so she may be a force. I don't know how serious Anna's injury was/is but last season she got very high PCS (so did Baga though). I think a lot will depend on if Kiri is still inconsistent with her 3lz, 3f, 2a like last season (and I guess 3lo too because she will be attempting it here but didn't do it last season) and if Angela gets hit with lots of URs like she did at nationals. The Russians should be the American's biggest threat if they are on form, the Japanese girls competing there aren't the strongest.

[Sylvia]

When I truly think about it your right about Ellie vs Gong. But I guess I can say the worst thing was that they didn't wait.

I checked the Archives and came up with this exchange between us that was posted on October 2, 2009:

Well I wasn't to impressed with Gong's showing either but at least she attempts harder jumps than a triple salchow which is the hardest jump Ellie even tried. It would be one thing if Ellie had actually medaled but she didn't. With jump content like her's she's not going to be competitive and "if" she makes the JGPF will place dead last. So why not at least hold out and see how others do before you give her a second spot.

While I agree that USFS should have held out longer, I think the problem may have been that USFS couldn't wait for the results from Belarus before assigning the team for Croatia and getting all the travel paperwork started (if BLR had taken place the week after Poland, rather than 2 weeks later, then maybe they could have waited). From what I understand, USFS headquarters staff has been processing the athletes' and coaches' travel paperwork further ahead of time than they have in the past.

[pinky166]

When I truly think about it your right about Ellie vs Gong. But I guess I can say the worst thing was that they didn't wait. Ellie's score content etc wasn't that great, and it surely wouldn't have hurt to see how the other girls did first. And it was especially glaring because someone like Agnes didn't get a spot at all. And I know Agnes didn't make it to nationals, but that was frankly due to a tough sectionals.

I'm not sure why the USA was so gungho on the importance of Ellie making the JGPF for the JGPF's sake. I thought it was pretty darn clear if Ellie went she'd likely place last if everyone else skated decently. I'd think giving someone like Agnes experience would have been more important long term. I'd have looked at her and Gong's 4th place finishes as a golden opportunity to give Agnes a shot (to be frank)

Well, Kiri only beat Ellie by a few points at the JGPF, and Kiri had won both of her events. Further, Ellie beat Anna in Budapest and Anna made a pretty impressive turnaround by the time the final rolled around considering she was totally hot mess in Budapest, I think most people thought she would place/score lower than she did at the final. Angela was bombing her SPs all last season, Christina qualified by winning two bronzes, and Ksenia scored 126 at the event she won bronze at, so I'm actually not sure that it was so clear Ellie would finish last.