Would Kristi have continued to 1994 had she not won in 1992.

[Twilight1]

Nancy's whack wouldn't have happened, Baiul wouldn't have been the Oly Champ, Kwan would have had to wait longer to compete at a World's (potentially)

Wow, the whole dynamic would have been different then, I almost wish Kristi had stayed on... (much as I love Oksana and her being Oly champ) The trickle would have even been felt in 1998! Oksana would have stayed on and her, Kwan, Chen and Lipinski would have been fighting it out in Nagano.

[olympic]

Nancy's whack wouldn't have happened, Baiul wouldn't have been the Oly Champ, Kwan would have had to wait longer to compete at a World's (potentially)

Wow, the whole dynamic would have been different then, I almost wish Kristi had stayed on... (much as I love Oksana and her being Oly champ) The trickle would have even been felt in 1998! Oksana would have stayed on and her, Kwan, Chen and Lipinski would have been fighting it out in Nagano.

I agree with most of what you said, but I don't think Baiul would've had the chops to last as a top threat into Nagano '98 due to 1) injuries and 2) lack of sophisticated programs.

She was barely on top in the 5-6 triple world of the '92 - '94 era and there are many who take issue with her wins even in this easier era. In the '95 - '98 quadrennial, 7 triple winning LPs with more daring 3-3s and more intricacies came back into vogue. Oksana at her best was only doing 5 solo triples and little else besides fanny-wiggling and high-kicking. Despite the monstrous love that judges showered on her, they would've been forced to dump her IMO

[judgejudy27]

I think if Oksana had stayed in she would have been held up and won the 95 Worlds even if she didnt deserve it, unless she fell off drastically. Chen won with only 5 triples and much improved artistry, but the judges would always take Baiul over Chen. Chen even outskated Baiul at the 93 Worlds and 94 Olympics and it didnt matter. 5 triples would not have been even in the judges eyes to beat even a semi decent Baiul.

In 96 with how Kwan and Chen skated at Worlds they might have been forced to give the title to someone else if she hadnt improved at all. However by 97 with Kwan's and everyone elses problems it would have been easy to slide her back to the top again over a 14 year old Tara who was pretty much despised by all skating pundits at the time. I think if she just stayed around the same level it actually would have been pretty easy to keep her at or near the top in the coming years had she stayed in.

And had she not won the 94 Olympics I am pretty sure she would have stayed in. And had Kristi not won the 92 Olympics I am pretty sure she wins in 94 and that happens. And had Baiul stayed in, Tara's rise could well have been delayed to the point she doesnt win the 98 Olympics (though I dont think Baiul does either neccessarily). And if Tara doesnt win the 98 Olympics I think she tries to stay in too. Such a long chain reaction could have occured from the results of the 92 Olympics IMHO. Also had Sato not won the 94 Worlds I think she stays in and her best ever skating was in later years it turned out.

Another thing to remember is how Baiul is viewed now is not how she was viewed by people inside skating back then. Even with some questioning her 94 Olympic win skating experts gushed over her then and called her a future legend. She was ridiculously overrated and very much in favor with any of the people in the sport who mattered until her drunk driving episode which followed already a couple years of mediocre pro skating. She would have continued to be overrated to ridiculous proportions, and only 1996 was really a particularly strong year for womens skating in the 95-98 quad anyway. If it were such a tough era than a 14 and 15 year old Tara with tiny jumps and iffy artistry (especialy in 97) wouldnt have been able to rise to the top so easily, with Kwan really her only big obstacle.

[VIETgrlTerifa]

When did Baiul suffer her growth spurt? Didn't that cause a lot of her consistency problems?

Like the way Tonya Harding's early 90s style skating looked a little dated by 1993/1994, I think Baiul's lack of difficulty and content would not have cut it with the likes of Kwan, Chen, Lipinski, and even Slutskaya by 1997. Say what you will about Lipinski, she sold her routines just as well as Baiul. The only thing Baiul had over Lipinski was Eastern European cred and one gorgeous SP (Swan Lake). Oh and a true Lutz.

[olympic]

whole post

Well, that does make sense. But take into consideration that Baiul probably wouldn't have maintained even 5 triples due to injuries and/or growth spurt post '94. Plus, I think the drunk-driving incident showed personal turmoil which may have been exacerbated by tougher competition in the '95 - '98 quadrennial had she stayed in.

Also, even with just 5 triples, I think Lulu really blossomed in '95. She had combos, too. Kwan and Lipinski with 7 triples in '96 and '97 respectively were representing a strong fed., too. It wouldn't be skittish Nancy that Oksana had to squeak past in the '95 - '98 period, but 2 steady American jumping beans, loaded with charisma and one especially talented on the 2d mark....all at a time when I think Oksana would be in decline technically.

Anyway, pure conjecture.

[bardtoob]

The only thing Baiul had over Lipinski was Eastern European cred and one gorgeous SP (Swan Lake).

Ahhh . . . she stole it, I mean was "inspired" by the Protopopovs.

[judgejudy27]

It is all speculation of course. I agree if Baiul regressed much below even her 93-94 jumping level which with her injuries and growth spurt she was dead no matter how much the judges wanted to hold her up.

However "if" she stayed around the same level I am pretty sure she would have been gifted the 95 World title over a superior Chen because she was Baiul. When you compare Chen of 95 to her 93 World and 94 Olympic performances she had much improved artistically but she actually did much weaker technically, and the judges clearly put Baiul on top of Chen at both the 93 Worlds and 94 Olympics even though Chen clearly outskated her in the long program phase at both. Of course all of those performances should have beaten anything Baiul ever did but I doubt that would have been the case with the judges. The only skater the judges would have "allowed" to beat a 93-94 Baiul at the 95 Worlds would have been Nicole Bobek if she didnt fall on her ass twice.

In 96 the judges would have had a hard time justifying keeping her on top unless she actually improved alot.

In 97 though it would have been easy to slide her back to the top with even her 93-94 level of skating as long as she skated clean shorts, pretty clean programs, and did about 5 triples. 14 year old Lipinski's rise was despised by all skating insiders when she first emerged, many who were livid she was given major titles even while Kwan, Slutskaya, and everyone else was falling all over themselves in early 97 (minus the LP of Worlds). 1997 was actually one of the worst years of skating I can remember, half of the top 10 from the 96 Worlds werent even around, and the ones that were all had major problems around then.

Slutskaya was never that good before 2000. Lipinski was never that good before 97. Chen was never that good after 96. Butyrskaya was never considered a big name before 99. And the best skaters dont always win for a variety of reasons, if they did we wouldnt be having all these debates.

[Triple Butz]

It is all speculation of course. I agree if Baiul regressed much below even her 93-94 jumping level which with her injuries and growth spurt she was dead no matter how much the judges wanted to hold her up.

However "if" she stayed around the same level I am pretty sure she would have been gifted the 95 World title over a superior Chen because she was Baiul. When you compare Chen of 95 to her 93 World and 94 Olympic performances she had much improved artistically but she actually did much weaker technically, and the judges clearly put Baiul on top of Chen at both the 93 Worlds and 94 Olympics even though Chen clearly outskated her in the long program phase at both. Of course all of those performances should have beaten anything Baiul ever did but I doubt that would have been the case with the judges.

In 96 the judges would have had a hard time justifying keeping her on top unless she actually improved alot.

In 97 though it would have been easy to slide her back to the top with even her 93-94 level of skating as long as she skated clean shorts, pretty clean programs, and did about 5 triples. 14 year old Lipinski's rise was despised by all skating insiders when she first emerged, many who were livid she was given major titles even while Kwan, Slutskaya, and everyone else was falling all over themselves in early 97 (minus the LP of Worlds). 1997 was actually one of the worst years of skating I can remember, half of the top 10 from the 96 Worlds werent even around, and the ones that were all had major problems around then.

Slutskaya was never that good before 2000. Lipinski was never that good before 97. Chen was never that good after 96. Butyrskaya was never considered a big name before 99. And the best skaters dont always win for a variety of reasons, if they did we wouldnt be having all these debates.

I'm less convinced that the judges were so anti-Lipinski in 97. She won the GPF, the sp at worlds (where the judges easily could have propped up Gusmeroli or Butyrskaya- I could even see an outside argument for Kwan winning the sp). In the free program, the ordinals were all over the place for Kwan, Lipinski, and Slute, which leads me to believe that the judges really didn't have much of a bias, just judged what they felt.

It was the next season when all of the Tara hate started coming out. Still, in the 98 Olympics no one would have cried fowl if the judges had given the title to Kwan-who skated two remarkable programs- yet the judges went for Lipinski in the long. If they wouldn't do it for a 7 triple Kwan in 98, what makes you think they would do it for a 5 triple Baiul in 97?

[Triple Butz]

Ahhh . . . she stole it, I mean was "inspired" by the Protopopovs.

That's not even the same composer. This is "The Swan" from Carnival of the Animals by Camille Saint-Saens. Oksana used selections from "Swan Lake" a ballet by Tchaikovsky for her sp. Perhaps you are referring to her exhibition?

[judgejudy27]

I'm less convinced that the judges were so anti-Lipinski in 97. She won the GPF, the sp at worlds (where the judges easily could have propped up Gusmeroli or Butyrskaya- I could even see an outside argument for Kwan winning the sp). In the free program, the ordinals were all over the place for Kwan, Lipinski, and Slute, which leads me to believe that the judges really didn't have much of a bias, just judged what they felt.

It was the next season when all of the Tara hate started coming out. Still, in the 98 Olympics no one would have cried fowl if the judges had given the title to Kwan-who skated two remarkable programs- yet the judges went for Lipinski in the long. If they wouldn't do it for a 7 triple Kwan in 98, what makes you think they would do it for a 5 triple Baiul in 97?

I dont the judges were anti-Tara in 97. I do think the global media, skating insiders, and skating experts of the time were though. So many of them harshly criticized her title wins at the 97 Grand Prix final and 97 Worlds despite that except Slutskaya and Kwan in the LP at the 97 Worlds all her competitors were flopping all over the place. I think the most part the judges let her rise to the very top since there was nobody else. Kwan and Irina were in huge slumps, Chen was out for the year with injury, Maria was still a herky jerky skater seen as the Russian Kwiatkowski around then (emerging journeywomen), Szewcenko was out for the year with more physical problems, Bonaly too pretty much, Ito had retired. Granted the 97 Worlds LP they had the opportunity to place her 3rd in the LP which would have either given Kwan a come from behind gold or Tara an unusual asterix as a World Champ who finished only 3rd in the LP (if Irina won the LP) and didnt but by then the judges had warmed to this new sensation some and she had gained clout by then with her wins at U.S Nationals, the GP final, and by winning the SP at Worlds. I just think if any past champion of any competence was around who was standing up their programs with even average content, it would have been different. The judges didnt hate her, but nobody really wanted a 14 year old with no sense of maturity yet to rise to the top, it just happened because all due to the surroundings of the time.

And Tara being on top in 97 was totally different than 98 IMHO. Tara in 97 was not nearly as good a skater as 98, and she did not have the World title attached to her name yet. If you compare the quality of her skating at the 98 Olympics or the 97 Grand Prix final to the 97 Worlds or 97 Nationals I see a huge difference. She also was now a 15 year old with big titles attached to her name who people werent embarassed to see on top which seemed to be the general sentiment in 97 from all I kept hearing or reading. In early 97 she was a 14 year old with no real prior achievements who rose to the top by default. If you recall the skating season that year on the grand prix, the Grand Prix final, basically everything until the spectular Worlds LP thanks to Kwan, Irina, and Tara, it was otherwise unbelievably horrible. It made the 93 and 94 field criticized earlier in this thread look like some superstar extra field.

I guess one thing I am forgetting is the scenario of Baiul continuing only in her not winning the 94 Olympic Gold so actually I am probably overestimating her name value heading into the quad. Still someone who was already on top going into the quad would have the edge over people who were just coming up later in that quad assuming they mantained even a decent standard of skating. That is just the way the sport was around then, pre COP. And Baiul was of course one of the most overrated and overscored skaters of all time who did not lose her Emperors New Clothes like mystique until a few years of abysmal pro skating and her drunk driving episode. I am not convinced she would have had to ever outskated her competitors to beat them, she certainly didnt outskate them all to win the 93 Worlds or 94 Olympics did she.

[Canadask8er]

In an A&E documentary... I think "FIRE AND ICE".... about the American Skating Champions, it was stated that after Kristi switched to singles only, she was really aiming for the 1994 Olympics and 1992 was just supposed to be a warm-up. She didn't really think that she would be ready by 1992. Guess thats why she was in such shock when she won 1991 Worlds!

[olympic]

In an A&E documentary... I think "FIRE AND ICE".... about the American Skating Champions, it was stated that after Kristi switched to singles only, she was really aiming for the 1994 Olympics and 1992 was just supposed to be a warm-up. She didn't really think that she would be ready by 1992. Guess thats why she was in such shock when she won 1991 Worlds!

I think the CW was that after the abolishment of Ito's nemesis Figures in '90, Ito was going to 'mop-up' and sail through to '92 then probably retire. It may have created KY and her coach's strategy for Lillehamer. Additionally, you had the domestic insurgence of Harding who won '91 Nats and beat KY at '91 SA. Kristi probably felt she'd get on the podium in Albertville and have better luck in Lillehamer (although it was obvious that Midori and Tonya had their issues and KY/Ness grew to feel that she had a shot at the top). However, both Midori and Tonya were not at their best and KY was able to win in Albertville. I honestly think though that Midori and Tonya were more talented and if healthy or in Tonya's case, focused, they would've been ahead of Kristi in Albertville '92.

But I think once Kristi won, there was a sense of relief and she took the gold and ran.

[bardtoob]

That's not even the same composer. This is "The Swan" from Carnival of the Animals by Camille Saint-Saens. Oksana used selections from "Swan Lake" a ballet by Tchaikovsky for her sp. Perhaps you are referring to her exhibition?

The costume (save Oksana's was dipped in black) and the general body movements.

[FunnyBut]

I think winning an Olympic Gold Medal totally changes a person's outlook. Once the biggest goal is accomplished, there's a huge feeling of satisfaction, reward, and one is no longer so motivated and single-mindedly determined to sacrifice everything for another OGM.

So I think Kristi's 1992 win retired her. Had she not won, I've no doubt she would have continued to 1994. She did however, miss out on a totally unparalleled opportunity to be a 2 time OGM, with the next Olympics only 2 years away and an especially weak competitive field. As her pro career proved, she was the right combination of work ethic, skills and body type to maintain her toughest skills for many years, and she would have been an overwhelming favorite in 94.

I even think she would have continued to 98 if she somehow didn't win in 94. I think she'd have a Kwan-like record of many National and World titles, and a similarily impressive body of competitive programs. But I'm not sure that at 27 she'd have been able to overcome the much younger Kwan and Lipinski.

[query5]

personally-- i don't know,because i don't think kristi knows what she would have done,

why back in 1994 when she had the chance to comeback,
she stated no -why too much pressure and backstage stabbing .
in reference to tonya wacking , why she hinted that behind the scenes wasn't too great , they had to watch their skates, clothes and other things.
now remember.
Kristi wasn't the one to beat in 1992 , all eyes were on midori so if kristi didn't win in 1992 all eyes would be on her, could have she have handle it after the (loss) in 1992 and stayed on top with nancy, tonya and couple of youngster coming up,
kristi was 20 in 1992, back then youngster could go to the olympics,
i don't think there was an age limit except for maybe 13 or if they medal at junior worlds and junior worlds was held the previous year in december,
like dec 1993 for the 94 junior worlds, and december 1992 for the 1993 junior worlds if medal. they could go.
we don't know they ifs, what evers and what happens,
to say automatically kristi would win, kristi wouldn't have competition , or nancy and oksana, tonya wouldn't have won is just plain arrogrant and plain outright cheating and lies, it might have but we don't know,
it didn't happen that way.
unless they rigged the 1994 olympics for kristi-for which i see more likely happening because you fans seem way to sure of yourselfs.
(which they didn't want to do for michelle both times)

michelle would have still came on like gangbusters, kristi would have had to fight, check the 1997 ultimate four, kristi and michelle didn't like to face each other both were good,
still a pro-am but michelle won, kristi fell, like she did at the olympics in 1992 (hand down) i like it they don't mention it as a fall, yet michelles wasn't technically a fall but everyone states it. if that is the case than kristi fell at the 1992 olympics, midori was a bit worse,
everyone remembers her running into the boards which cause her to fall, no one remembers which jump just that she fell and ran into the boards, hardly anyone remembers krisiti fall( hand down) or whatever,
would have kristi put up with two more years of pressure from media, fans, expectations-she would have to win all her events she entered since 1992 .kristi didn't win all her events , so the expectation would have been higher.
sorry,but would have she won and continued only she can answer that,.
we can guess ,but we don't know and we don't know the outcome because it never happens.
to say it would have gone a certain way states arrogance and in figure skating outright cheating -why some of you are judges, coaches and otherwise fans.

[Fabrichnova]

The costume (save Oksana's was dipped in black) and the general body movements.

Actually, the Protopopov's program was also inspired by Anna Pavlova's performance to the same music. So Baiul isn't anymore guilty of artistic plagiarism or "stealing" than they are, at least with regards to the "Dying Swan" exhibition.

As far as the costume, considering the original source, of course there are going to be similarities.

Now if you wanna talk Baiul and thievery, take a look at her LP dress at Skate America in '93 and tell me the designer wasn't inspired by Kristi's Malaguena costume for the Olympics...

[judgejudy27]

Kristi wasn't the one to beat in 1992 , all eyes were on midori so if kristi didn't win in 1992 all eyes would be on her, could have she have handle it after the (loss) in 1992 and stayed on top with nancy, tonya and couple of youngster coming up

Since when does Tonya even become a factor for 1994 suddenly even without the whack. I actually like Tonya alot but the last place she seemed to be going after 92 was "up". She had an abysmal 92-93 season, finishing off the podium in most of her events including her own Nationals and not making Worlds. Her only strong performances after 92 were her performances at the 94 Nationals which she won easily now in the absence of both Kristi and Nancy. She never arrived at Lillehammer as one of the favorites, had the clubbing never occured she still would have been considered an unreaiable spoiler at best.

No of course Kristi would not have been a total gaurantee for the 94 Olympic Gold had she competed. That is why they skate the competitions. However her chances would seem good. She has never lost to Nancy Kerrigan in all their years of head to head competition, and she often made mistakes and still had no problem beating Nancy. And there are many like Frank Carrol who said Nancy would have easily beaten Baiul for the gold without the whack. And Baiul won with a joke performance (for an Oly champ) with only 3 clean triples, alot of small mistakes, and a messy ending finishing off her music. Kristi would never lose once to Baiul in pro competition either.

It would have been funny if Kristi had lost in 94 though, to see her potentially stay to 1998 and compete with Michelle and Tara at 98. The ironic thing is she might have ended up being considered more of a legend this way even if she lost the Olympic Gold 3 times in a row. Just look at Kwan. She would then however have missed out on all those years of being the female star of Stars On Ice, crushing mostly older technically time warped women in pro events and getting praised to the skies for doing so, and basically living the luxurious life of stardom she was able to enjoy getting the Oly Gold out of the way at only 20.

[Muffin]

But take into consideration that Baiul probably wouldn't have maintained even 5 triples due to injuries and/or growth spurt post '94. Plus, I think the drunk-driving incident showed personal turmoil which may have been exacerbated by tougher competition in the '95 - '98 quadrennial had she stayed in.

But a lot of the turmoil in her life started after she won the gold medal, went pro and suddenly had a lot of money and fame. If she'd never won the gold medal, she might have kept her head down and kept working towards the goal. She wouldn't have had the money to do otherwise. She might have even avoided that knee injury, which was probably caused because she was in such terrible shape.

[briancoogaert]

Nancy's whack wouldn't have happened, Baiul wouldn't have been the Oly Champ, Kwan would have had to wait longer to compete at a World's (potentially)

About Kwan, I doubt it. Because with Kristi winning the 1993 Worlds, US would have had 3 spots at 1994 Olys and Worlds.
And with Kristi competing at 1994 Worlds, I doubt Tonya or Nancy would participate. So, MK would have had a spot for 1994 Worlds (even if 4th at US Nats).

[olympic]

But a lot of the turmoil in her life started after she won the gold medal, went pro and suddenly had a lot of money and fame. If she'd never won the gold medal, she might have kept her head down and kept working towards the goal. She wouldn't have had the money to do otherwise. She might have even avoided that knee injury, which was probably caused because she was in such terrible shape.

Valid points. Very valid 'what if' scenario, but if at her peak those performances of '93 and '94 were the best she could do [5 solo triples - poorly structured programs] I just don't see her doing more in the '95 - '98 quadrennial