If B/A had won Worlds 2009...

[skateboy]

Oh duh, I'm sorry, I could've sworn '09 was when Tanith fell in the CD! (Smacking head...)

[judgejudy27]

While Abbott was the reining US Champion, Lysacek, the reigning world champion, was in his own country in an Olympic year behind a skater that had never yet medaled at Worlds.

Abbott skated so much better than Evan at Nationals the judges had no choice but to give him the victory. There would have been a huge uproar if they had given Evan the U.S title with the way both men skated thsi year. When it comes to singles skating it is hard to argue with a guy skating cleanly with a quad vs a guy who makes multiple major errors without one. In ice dancing there is far less likely to be something so tangible to force such a result upon the judges.

Lets face it, Evan was always the real #1 U.S skater even after Abbott's Nationals win.

[judgejudy27]

I disagree. We will never know with any certainty, but going into Worlds in 08 B/A were the favorites to win IIRC. Del/S had problems with The PIano all season - they changed quite a lot of it by Worlds.

Falling in the CD really cost B/A because [1] it took them out of contention for a medal in the judges' minds [meaning their marks would be lower] and [2] that fall obviously affected their skating in the OD especially - their usual confidence was not there.

I think if they hadnt fallen, their marks in the OD and FD would have been higher - high enough for them to win. Del/S 2nd, V/M 3rd. Del/S got the benefit of the fall because they then became the forerunners and their marks were higher than they would have been otherwise. I know Casken will disagree but IMO Del/S won that year by default. B/A were out of it with the fall, Dom/S werent there, V/M were "too young" - Del/S had been around for a long time, many thought they were undermarked most of their career - it was "their turn" in a way.

But had B/A really skated well, I still believe 08 would have been their year. Having just won the Gold, they never would have left S/Z - although one of the other teams might have, we'll never know.

The reigning WGM is always considered a frontrunner, so that would have put them in good shape in 09 too. Considering all the injuries that year, I am fairly sure they would have won again in 09. 2 time WGM would always be a favorite for OGM. So that fall really cost them big-time IMO.

You make alot of presumptions. Ice dance judges dont typically greatly change how they score future programs based on the results of the CD. If they did B/A would not have climbed to silver in Turin after finishing 6th in the CD. If B/A were really viewed as the #1 team by the judges at the 2008 Worlds they would have easily brought them up to atleast the bronze overall even with the fall in the CD which they did not.

[Debbie S]

You make alot of presumptions. Ice dance judges dont typically greatly change how they score future programs based on the results of the CD. If they did B/A would not have climbed to silver in Turin after finishing 6th in the CD. If B/A were really viewed as the #1 team by the judges at the 2008 Worlds they would have easily brought them up to atleast the bronze overall even with the fall in the CD which they did not.

But remember that in Torino, the top 6 teams were very close after the CD - I think they were all within a point of each other. B/A didn't fall. It was easy for them to climb 4 spots in the OD b/c 1) they had a great OD and performed it at their best (which they didn't do with their '08 Worlds OD, IMO) and more importantly, 2) they didn't have to outscore the comp by that much. IIRC, B/A were several points behind after the CD at '08 Worlds and it's hard to make that up. And they didn't perform their OD and FD as well as they had at the GPF and Nats.

Actually, B/A were very close to winning the bronze over K/N but they had a slight error (loss of balance) in their last lift in the FD that I believe caused the level (and certainly the GOE) to be dropped. As it was, they place 3rd in the FD, but it was not enough to overtake K/N overall.

[judgejudy27]

But remember that in Torino, the top 6 teams were very close after the CD - I think they were all within a point of each other. B/A didn't fall. It was easy for them to climb 4 spots in the OD b/c 1) they had a great OD and performed it at their best (which they didn't do with their '08 Worlds OD, IMO) and more importantly, 2) they didn't have to outscore the comp by that much. IIRC, B/A were several points behind after the CD at '08 Worlds and it's hard to make that up. And they didn't perform their OD and FD as well as they had at the GPF and Nats.

Actually, B/A were very close to winning the bronze over K/N but they had a slight error (loss of balance) in their last lift in the FD that I believe caused the level (and certainly the GOE) to be dropped. As it was, they place 3rd in the FD, but it was not enough to overtake K/N overall.

Still if the judges considered them the #1 team there and the team that was going to win Worlds had all gone according to plan they would not have placed them 4th and 3rd for strong performances in the OD and FD and allowed a fall in the CD to prevent them from catching a team nobody expected to medal who even had a weak free dance performance. Ice dance judges dont take a team they were planning on giving gold to and mark them down lower in the other dances just because they fell in the CD, that is never how they have operated. I am not disputing B/A would have very easily beaten K/N without the fall in the CD of course (as you said they nearly did anyway).

[Debbie S]

Still if the judges considered them the #1 team there and the team that was going to win Worlds had all gone according to plan they would not have placed them 4th and 3rd for strong performances in the OD and FD and allowed a fall in the CD to prevent them from catching a team nobody expected to medal who even had a weak free dance performance. Ice dance judges dont take a team they were planning on giving gold to and mark them down lower in the other dances just because they fell in the CD, that is never how they have operated.

Hmmm, that's kind of a bold statement (use of "never").

As I said, B/A did not give a "strong" performance of their OD and FD. The fall affected them in many ways - psychologically and politically. In dance, falls are rare (esp in the CD). When a favorite falls at Worlds, the judges will naturally think that they aren't WC material (at least not that year). They would rather see a team w/o a fall win. And there were also reports that after the fall, Marina went around politiking V/M to the podium (and I believe V/M's PCS marks went up significantly as the comp went on).

I believe if B/A hadn't fallen in the CD, they would have won. Of course, that's contingent on them skating each program at their best. Would they have? Who knows....but I do think the odds were pretty good given how they'd been skating that season.

[MOIJTO]

I believe if B/A hadn't fallen in the CD, they would have won. Of course, that's contingent on them skating each program at their best. Would they have? Who knows....but I do think the odds were pretty good given how they'd been skating that season.

No, I disagree, as I have said more than once their programs declined from 06, even without a fall in the CD they were pressed to be any better than 3rd. They were lucky to be 4th at Olys. I think that Ben's back and knee injuries were more the culprit of misfortune for them than Tanith's two left feet in the CD.

[Enthusiast]

And there were also reports that after the fall, Marina went around politiking V/M to the podium (and I believe V/M's PCS marks went up significantly as the comp went on).

That was NOT in 2008. IIRC it was in 2007 after the OD when Marina told the PRESS to keep an eye out for V/M as the future of ice dancing and they were talents from God or something like that.

I believe it was already translated in one of the D/W threads but in one of the Russian video interviews, Marina and Igor said they did politiks for D/W during the Olympic season. That's probably what you saw.

V&M (Tessa) made a mistake in the OD at 2008 Worlds which dropped them at least a level and dropped them to 3rd overall leading up to the FD that you forgot to mention.

[Debbie S]

That was NOT in 2008. IIRC it was in 2007 after the OD when Marina told the PRESS to keep an eye out for V/M as the future of ice dancing and they were talents from God or something like that.

I'm sure Marina did a lot of politiking for V/M during each of the past 4 seasons. But I do remember reading something somewhere that after B/A fell in the CD, Marina stopped politiking for B/A and started lobbying for V/M. Did this affect placements of B/A and V/M? I guess we'll never know, but as with anything politiks-related, we can speculate.

V&M (Tessa) made a mistake in the OD at 2008 Worlds which dropped them at least a level and dropped them to 3rd overall leading up to the FD that you forgot to mention.

I didn't "forget", I didn't mention details of V/M's performance b/c the thread is not about V/M. If you're comparing Tessa's mistake to Tanith's fall, I think that's reaching a bit. Tessa missed her blade catch on a twizzle and held it for 1 less rev, dropping the twizzles to Level 3. IIRC, their GOEs were still pretty good. A fall is a major error (esp in dance).

And V/M didn't win, either , although they wouldn't have beaten DelSchoes even w/o the twizzle mistake.

[Enthusiast]

I'm sure Marina did a lot of politiking for V/M during each of the past 4 seasons. But I do remember reading something somewhere that after B/A fell in the CD, Marina stopped politiking for B/A and started lobbying for V/M. Did this affect placements of B/A and V/M? I guess we'll never know, but as with anything politiks-related, we can speculate.

I didn't "forget", I didn't mention details of V/M's performance b/c the thread is not about V/M. If you're comparing Tessa's mistake to Tanith's fall, I think that's reaching a bit. Tessa missed her blade catch on a twizzle and held it for 1 less rev, dropping the twizzles to Level 3. IIRC, their GOEs were still pretty good. A fall is a major error (esp in dance).

And V/M didn't win, either , although they wouldn't have beaten DelSchoes even w/o the twizzle mistake.

I'm not comparing the twizzle mistake to the fall, but to Tanith's "failed" lift you mentioned that resulted in level 3 in the FD.

My point bringing up the messed twizzle is that since they DROPPED to 3rd, going by your logic, they wouldn't have come anywhere even close to 1st in the FD or win a silver medal.

But yeah, I'm pretty sure the "reports" you saw were about Marina and Igor politicking for D/W during last season, because I do remember it to be pretty recent.

[briancoogaert]

OMG, the title makes me laugh so hard. I can't imagine this. But why not, they are not worse than Domnina&Shabalin.
Anyway, we all know that the podium in ice dancing is not about what is on the ice. But for once, in Vancouver, judges gave the gold and silver to the deserving teams. The bronze is another story, but a podium with 2 american teams and no russian team was probably not something imaginable.
My answer is : no change !

[cheriepopo]

I think even if Belbin didn't fall in 2008 worlds, DeloSchoen would be the champion still judging by the scores B/A and D/S got at that event. B/A's OD was 5th too IIRC, the judges just stopped loving them.

[olympic]

I think even if Belbin didn't fall in 2008 worlds, DeloSchoen would be the champion still judging by the scores B/A and D/S got at that event. B/A's OD was 5th too IIRC, the judges just stopped loving them.

As stated upthread, there could've been other factors involved there

[Quintuple]

Another B/A what-if: What if Tanith did not get her citizenship by the 2006 Olympics, and they were aiming for 2010 as their first? Would their ascent have been "delayed", closer to 2010? Would they ever have switched coaches? Would they not have just retired?

[carriecmu0503]

Another B/A what-if: What if Tanith did not get her citizenship by the 2006 Olympics, and they were aiming for 2010 as their first? Would their ascent have been "delayed", closer to 2010? Would they ever have switched coaches? Would they not have just retired?

The answer to your question about delayed assent is no. Tanith and Ben won the silver medal at 2005 Worlds, before Tanith had citizenship. It looked like she would not get it before the Olympics at that time, either. It took a special act of Congress for her to get it on 12/31/05.

[VIETgrlTerifa]

There was that popular sentiment at the time that B/A were used as a non-threatening buffer to separate Navka/Kostomorov and the rest of the field before anyone knew Tanith would get her citizenship in time.

[kwanfan1818]

I think even if Belbin didn't fall in 2008 worlds, DeloSchoen would be the champion still judging by the scores B/A and D/S got at that event. B/A's OD was 5th too IIRC, the judges just stopped loving them.

But did the judges stop loving them because they fell or did it gave them an easy reason to drop them from contention because they ran out of love?

There was that popular sentiment at the time that B/A were used as a non-threatening buffer to separate Navka/Kostomorov and the rest of the field before anyone knew Tanith would get her citizenship in time.

Whether intentional or not, B/A's placement ended up serving a multitude of agendas.

[judgejudy27]

There was that popular sentiment at the time that B/A were used as a non-threatening buffer to separate Navka/Kostomorov and the rest of the field before anyone knew Tanith would get her citizenship in time.

I know some felt that way but B/A's silver medal at the Olympics pretty much disproved that theory IMO. I understand their rise to 2nd in 2005 too. Denkova & Stayviski who were often underrated were skating sloppy that year with a not so hot OD and an overcomplex and messy looking FD. Their twizzles were pretty weak that year for some reason. Grushina & Goncharov were never that big a threat at the very top and did well to even sneak out their 2 medals (which many didnt even agree with). Dubreuil & Lauzon werent a big threat yet in 2005. Delobel & Schoenfelder were the team that were most underrated in 2005, but they often were underrated in general anyway.

[blue_idealist]

If B/A had won Worlds in 2009 they would have remained U.S #1 and won silver at the 2010 Olympics behind Virtue & Moir, repeating their performance from 2006. An ailing and continually declining Domnina & Shabalin would have been pushed off in favor of an improving Davis & White.

I'd agree with this. It's hard to imagine a Russian team not on the podium, but honestly, the judges could not have put Davis and White's FD at Olympics below Domnina and Shabalin's, without a HUGE outcry of bias (probably worse than the pairs fiasco in 2002).

[judgejudy27]

I'd agree with this. It's hard to imagine a Russian team not on the podium, but honestly, the judges could not have put Davis and White's FD at Olympics below Domnina and Shabalin's, without a HUGE outcry of bias (probably worse than the pairs fiasco in 2002).

Then again most seem to feel B&A were clearly better than D&S in Vancouver as well and they pushed them off to avoid a NA sweep. So maybe in this case D&W would have met with the same fate. Who knows.

I wish Delobel & Schoenfelder had been the Euro team the judges had gifted with the token Euro medal, even though they clearly werent at their best in Vancouver either. I still dont think they were any worse than Domnina & Shabalin were there.