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  1. #1
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    Wagner Just Misses Out on Olympic Dream


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    Wagner will be making her 2nd Stars on Ice tour guest appearance tonight in Salt Lake City.

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    Must have been tough coming third at US Nationals. Especially after beating Nagasu in the free but stumbling in the short.

    With two spots on the World team next year, is going to have to step it up and go for a triple - triple in the short with any hope of matching Rachael and Mirai now.

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    Yeah it was unfortunate not going to Olympics by 4 points. I think that she should probably play it a little conservative in the short. Nagasu really needs to get on top of her free skate game.

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    I really like Ashley, but sometimes I think she is a bit overconfident in her performances. I mean, really, a LP with just 4 clean triples is the "program of her life"????? She really needs to address the 2-foot issues, and work on centering her spins. All the other pieces are there, IMO. I hope her and Mirai make the trip to worlds next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by essence_of_soy View Post
    Must have been tough coming third at US Nationals. Especially after beating Nagasu in the free but stumbling in the short.

    With two spots on the World team next year, is going to have to step it up and go for a triple - triple in the short with any hope of matching Rachael and Mirai now.
    With Gao and Zawadzki, and maybe even Czisny, as spoilers. I mean Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics with no 3-3 and beat her in the SP at Nationals this year with no 3-3, so Ashley may be able to pass Rachael without a 3-3 IF she fixes her flutz and stops 2-footing her jumps.

    As for Mirai, if she gets her 3lz-3t solid, then I think she will be tough to catch, especially because she already has a very solid 2a-3t and with the new rules on URs I expect she'll start going for the 3-3, in both programs, all the time. Plus the occasional URed jump won't kill her scores now like they did before. Everything else is there. Gao can maybe challenge her but I think that will take a couple more years to happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    Wagner will be making her 2nd Stars on Ice tour guest appearance tonight in Salt Lake City.
    I like Ashley, but I'm a little unclear on something. She finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at Nationals. This gets her SOI appearances. ( as it should )

    But let's say she finished 3rd at both GPF and Nationals, then competed in the Olympics. Would this also warrant SOI appearances???????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Polymer Bob View Post
    I like Ashley, but I'm a little unclear on something. She finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at Nationals. This gets her SOI appearances. ( as it should )

    But let's say she finished 3rd at both GPF and Nationals, then competed in the Olympics. Would this also warrant SOI appearances???????
    depends, would she slap her face in the SP?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Triple Butz View Post
    I really like Ashley, but sometimes I think she is a bit overconfident in her performances. I mean, really, a LP with just 4 clean triples is the "program of her life"????? She really needs to address the 2-foot issues, and work on centering her spins...
    THIS. I like Ashley, but I hate it when she comes off as the underdog in her interviews IMO. It's not gonna get her to worlds next year. Hard work and practice will, which I'm sure she already knows. Save me the talk. I wanna see RESULTS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lilshorty View Post
    THIS. I like Ashley, but I hate it when she comes off as the underdog in her interviews IMO. It's not gonna get her to worlds next year. Hard work and practice will, which I'm sure she already knows. Save me the talk. I wanna see RESULTS.
    I have never seen her as an underdog. She is just someone who makes mistakes and therefore screws herself big time. There is really no #1 US lady now so therefore I dont see how anyone can view themself as an underdog.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    With Gao and Zawadzki, and maybe even Czisny, as spoilers. I mean Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics with no 3-3 and beat her in the SP at Nationals this year with no 3-3, so Ashley may be able to pass Rachael without a 3-3 IF she fixes her flutz and stops 2-footing her jumps.

    As for Mirai, if she gets her 3lz-3t solid, then I think she will be tough to catch, especially because she already has a very solid 2a-3t and with the new rules on URs I expect she'll start going for the 3-3, in both programs, all the time. Plus the occasional URed jump won't kill her scores now like they did before. Everything else is there. Gao can maybe challenge her but I think that will take a couple more years to happen.
    Gao probably will need to wait another year to get to the top. YuNa wasn't transformed overnight, and certainly Gao has more issues than YuNa did when she was 15-16.

    Zawadski will definitely do well next year in seniors and at Nationals, but I think the judges will tell her to wait her turn.
    Last edited by smarts1; 05-27-2010 at 10:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    Gao probably will need to wait another year to get to the top. YuNa wasn't transformed overnight, and certainly Gao has more issues than YuNa did when she was 15-16.

    Zawadski will definitely do well next year in seniors and at Nationals, but I think the judges will tell her to wait her turn.
    IMO, Gao has the potential to go farther than Zawadzki. Agnes is a bit generic and her height is concerning, most tall skaters have major consistency issues and Agnes is 5'6" and may still be growing.

    Christina has a slight flutz, but apart from that her technique is great, her speed is at least good in the beginning and certainly she is much faster than Agnes. Her spins are good, not amazing, but she can spin, flexibility is nice, she's elegant, she just needs to work a bit more on presentation and then she will be the soup. Agnes sort of seems like Tom's other students - Alexe, Rachael - very good but not unique. She will do well for herself if she can stay consistent, but internationally, I don't think she'll be winning many medals.

    As for Yuna, her transformation wasn't over night but just to give you an idea of what a difference a year can make:

    Yuna
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N00zw7LDs1M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhNms...eature=related

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FmncaNGLOI
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGAAOsZxNf4

    Mao
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fgj0QXEMsI
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS-JGt7X60E

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmyUwtmch9w
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ8LXKlFjUI

    Mirai
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh_4G...eature=related
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sGYqyf55rM

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcKKB29Bjpo
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rJX0_QqCTE

    Michelle
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHsorCH-690

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKmUW8wPB0s&feature=fvw

    Kimmie:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHfuj...eature=related

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1c3X...eature=related


    One year can make a big difference

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    Quote Originally Posted by lilshorty View Post
    THIS. I like Ashley, but I hate it when she comes off as the underdog in her interviews IMO. It's not gonna get her to worlds next year. Hard work and practice will, which I'm sure she already knows. Save me the talk. I wanna see RESULTS.
    I completely agree...she certainly talks a big game for someone who has yet to win a major title. It is ashame she missed the Olympics, but she knew going in there was only two spots available. If Ashley wants to do well next season, i'd skip the PR and get back to practice...there are a lot of good girls coming up the ranks and if the 2006-2010 years proved anything it is that ladies figure skating is demanding, unpredictable and ever changing

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    IMO, Gao has the potential to go farther than Zawadzki. Agnes is a bit generic and her height is concerning, most tall skaters have major consistency issues and Agnes is 5'6" and may still be growing.

    Christina has a slight flutz, but apart from that her technique is great, her speed is at least good in the beginning and certainly she is much faster than Agnes. Her spins are good, not amazing, but she can spin, flexibility is nice, she's elegant, she just needs to work a bit more on presentation and then she will be the soup. Agnes sort of seems like Tom's other students - Alexe, Rachael - very good but not unique. She will do well for herself if she can stay consistent, but internationally, I don't think she'll be winning many medals.

    As for Yuna, her transformation wasn't over night but just to give you an idea of what a difference a year can make:

    Yuna
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N00zw7LDs1M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhNms...eature=related

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FmncaNGLOI
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGAAOsZxNf4

    Mao
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fgj0QXEMsI
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS-JGt7X60E

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmyUwtmch9w
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ8LXKlFjUI

    Mirai
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh_4G...eature=related
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sGYqyf55rM

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcKKB29Bjpo
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rJX0_QqCTE

    Michelle
    :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHsorCH-690

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKmUW8wPB0s&feature=fvw

    Kimmie:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHfuj...eature=related

    vs.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1c3X...eature=related


    One year can make a big difference
    Hmmm. Agnes is definitely very tall and she might have jump issues later in life with that scary technique, but Tom does a rather good job with keeping the consistency with his skaters. But of course, when you compare Agnes and Christina, both of them are so different--both have good jumps, but everything seems to end there.

    Agnes is slow while Christina is pretty fast. Agnes is a better spinner than Christina and their artistic styles are very different..... But I do see some potential in Agnes (as opposed to many of you who don't think so, but whatever--have Tom's skaters ever risen to the tippy top? (like World Medals).

    Anyway, only time will tell with the younger ones... Hopefully they don't undergo a meltdown a la Kimmie.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    Hmmm. Agnes is definitely very tall and she might have jump issues later in life with that scary technique, but Tom does a rather good job with keeping the consistency with his skaters. But of course, when you compare Agnes and Christina, both of them are so different--both have good jumps, but everything seems to end there.

    Agnes is slow while Christina is pretty fast. Agnes is a better spinner than Christina and their artistic styles are very different..... But I do see some potential in Agnes (as opposed to many of you who don't think so, but whatever--have Tom's skaters ever risen to the tippy top? (like World Medals).

    Anyway, only time will tell with the younger ones... Hopefully they don't undergo a meltdown a la Kimmie.
    I don't think she'll undergo a Kimmie meltdown, Agnes seems to have a pretty wiry build so I don't think she'll fill out a lot through the hips and thighs like Kimmie did. As for Tom's skaters, Alexe and Ryan are not exactly consistent, and both those skaters are tall. I don't find Agnes's technique particularly scary I just wonder with her height. She def has potential but like you pointed out, Tom's skaters don't tend to go on and win World medals, or even qualify for the GPF most years so if Agnes follows suit with the mold, she'll be a technically strong skater who holds her own internationally without blowing the field away.

    Christina between her great jumps, speed, line, and body type I think has more star potential, but right now Agnes is heavy edge to Christina. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if Christina passes Agnes (and just about everyone else) in the future, which could be as early as this season, or may take a couple more years, or may never happen. Plus Christina isn't tall and I don't think her body will ever be an issue judging by how thin she is at 16.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UGG View Post
    I have never seen her as an underdog. She is just someone who makes mistakes and therefore screws herself big time. There is really no #1 US lady now so therefore I dont see how anyone can view themself as an underdog.
    Exactly. Her only mistake was going for the lutz instead of the loop in the sp at Nationals. But other than that, she packed both programs with transitions, difficult passes, elements of the highest level and quality and very good polish and speed.

    I think if she was clean in the sp her scoring in the lp would have been very different and she would have been to Vancouver with Mirai.

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    I don't see the "overconfidence" or "big game talk" that other folks are seeing in Wagner. Instead, I see someone very ambitious- who sets high standards and goals for herself and incidentally, unlike many other skaters, isn't afraid to keep those ambitions to herself. And why should she? I thought she was an athlete...she knows she has to work hard to get there and from the articles, seems like she is doing just that. I know some folks would rather let the skating do the talking but I think that's boring.

    This season, she set a goal for herself: going to the Olys. She fell short, so she said she wants to try again in '14. Maybe I'm different or something but I don't see the outcry. She'll be what- 22? if she can stay healthy and keep improving it's definitely doable. If she succeeded in making Olys, I somehow think this would be a non-issue...

    I've said this before, but the big thing she needs to do is strengthen her SP. Time after time she sabotages herself, digs herself a hole that she has to climb out of...this proved to be the difference at Nationals. Even with a very strong FS, she had to depend on mistakes from two of Nagasu, Flatt and Cohen. Cohen went as planned, but there was still Flatt and Nagasu. Flatt was her usual dependable self which left Nagasu as the wildcard. If Wagner had not fallen, I think she would have been going to Vancouver instead of Mirai.

    I think she said she wanted to be part of the '11 team and help get 3 spots back for '12. She can definitely do it if she gets her SP down and her FS jumps under control. (Anyone think the "70% rule" might help her out?) Once she actually gets on the world team, though, things get tougher. Even at her best (unless Yuna, Rochette and Ando retire) I think she can hope for lower top 10, which is fine if she is paired with a Nagasu that can manage bronze or 4th. I'd say Flatt and Nagasu might be the best shot (especially with the stress of an Olympic year eliminated this time) but Flatt seems to have reached her peaking point...anyway, we'll see what happens.

    P.S. I wonder what happened to her video blogs. I wonder if she will start doing those again, or whether it was just an experiment or something...
    Last edited by RD; 05-28-2010 at 09:31 PM.

  18. #18
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    Go Ashley! She and Mirai are my favorites of the current US ladies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    I don't see the "overconfidence" or "big game talk" that other folks are seeing in Wagner.

    Even with a very strong FS, she had to depend on mistakes from two of Nagasu, Flatt and Cohen. Cohen went as planned, but there was still Flatt and Nagasu. Flatt was her usual dependable self which left Nagasu as the wildcard. If Wagner had not fallen, I think she would have been going to Vancouver instead of Mirai.
    Well, let's discuss "big talk". The USFSA put out some "big talk" for a year and a half on how certain international events would factor into the Olympic team .... not just Nationals. Ashley was the only U.S. lady to make the Final. How much did that factor in? It seems not much? Could making the Final be considered worth 4 more points at Nationals?

    In all 4 disciplines, National results were the only factor.

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    I actually love Ashley's determination and focus with skating. I agree with RD that she seems ambitious but not overconfident. There's nothing wrong with talking about your goals as long as you're not arrogant or saying nasty things about other skaters.

    I'm really hoping it's Ashley and Mirai on the World team next season. I think Rachael has peaked, and Christina and Agnes don't seem quite ready. 2011 is most likely Ashley's best shot, and it's possible if she skates clean.

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