How would 2006 womens event in Turin have gone with everyone there and at best

[judgejudy27]

If everyone had been at the 2006 Olympics and everyone had skated their best how do you believe the results would have gone? By that I mean Asada and Kim were able to skate, Kwan was able to skate, and everyone who had been there did everything planned cleanly and as well as they could.

I believe in that case the results would have been with their top content:

Gold- Slutskaya (if she did atleast one triple-triple)
Silver- Arakawa (if she did the two triple-triples she was doing in practice)
Bronze- Cohen
4th- Asada (with triple axel and triple-triple combos)
5th- Kwan
6th- Ando (with triple-triples)
7th- Kim (with triple-triples)
8th- Kostner (with triple-triple)
9th- Rochette
10th- Suguri


On the other hand if Slutskaya and Arakawa did not attempt the triple-triples as they often did not anyway:

Gold- Cohen
Silver- Asada (assuming she does triple axel in long and triple-triple combinations in both programs which she always does)
Bronze- Slutskaya
4th- Arakawa
5th- Kwan
6th- Ando
7th- Kim
8th- Kostner
9th- Rochette
10th- Suguri

[miki88]

That's one weird competition. Lol. Do you mean "at their best" in that year (2006)? Michelle was definitely in better shape in previous years. If you're saying just for that year, then I'll have to go with either Mao or Irina for the gold if they skated their best. I just find it hard to picture Sasha winning the gold because I never remembered her skating two clean programs.

[judgejudy27]

I mean the best they were capable of that year. Kwan was IMO past her prime by that point, and also not at her best under COP, while someone like Kim was nowhere near the skater she was in future years nor with near the reputation. Just the best they were capable of at that point in time and how they likely would have been scored.

Cohen has skated 2 clean programs before but only in cheesefests or before she became a gold contender. She skated 2 clean programs at 2000 Cup of Russia when she was a relatively new senior and placed 4th behind Irina, Sokolova, and Hughes. I think she might have skated 2 clean programs at the 2002 Nationals or maybe her LP had a small mistake.

[museksk8r]

I'd probably go with:

1. Slutskaya
2. Kwan
3. Arakawa
4. Cohen
5. Kostner
6. Kim
7. Asada
8. Suguri
9. Rochette
10. Ando

Let's face it . . . the top 3 have the best reputation (all senior World champs in that Olympic quad) and Irina as reigning World champ would get the biggest benefit of doubt and rep boost if everyone theoretically skated their best. Yes, Kwan had struggled at 2005 Worlds, but given this imaginary scenario that everyone is healthy and skating their best, she'd definitely be top 2 given that she had been working really hard for the Olympic season to become COP friendly. Cohen was and should be the odd woman out if all of Irina, Michelle, and Shizuka were at their best. Sasha was always the 2nd American when Michelle was flawless and healthy. Caro was reigning senior World bronze medalist and with her speed, triple+triples, long lines, and talent, she'd be a force if she was on. By winter 2006, Yu-Na was defeating Asada in major junior competition despite Mao having won the senior GPF. Fumie came in as the Japanese champion and 2-time World bronze medalist and 2003/2004 GPF champ having defeated Cohen, so her rep with the judges would have put her over Joannie and Miki. Rochette had not yet come into her own and didn't have the best confidence at this point in her career. I was most unsure of Miki and Joannie - they really could be flip-flopped in the judges' placements. I prefer Rochette's skating skills, style, and attention to choreography over Ando's, so I gave her the edge.

[attyfan]

It would have been a lot more exciting, and, might have attracted more fans to the sport.

[casken]

Arakawa looked almost unbeatable in practices, but I think the judges would have went with Slutskaya for whatever reason.

[Karpenko]

Hmm thats actually tough. Because some of these skaters at their best exceed what we think they are capable of at their best.

I didn't think Arakawa "not at her best" would come close to a 125 for a 5-triple LP before seeing what she looked like at the Olympics, but she did and she absolutely deserved it. She really looked amazing in Turin, and I think she's the only one capable of scoring over 70 in the SP and 135 for the LP. I say if she were to go clean, she'd win based on what she was doing in practice.

This is where it gets tough.

I think part of the reason Irina's PCS (even though she deserved them a lot of the time) were so high in 05-06 was because she was consistently the one who delivered, so judges felt safe awarding her high PCS. Much like Plushenko during the time.

When you have skaters like Cohen, Arakawa, Kwan (without injury), etc at THEIR best, it makes Irina's PCS scores lower than what they usually are because stylistically, she's not as soft and refined as they are and when crowning an Oly ladies champ, thats usually what the judges go for. Most of the ladies besides Irina were always making mistakes, so you never saw their true PCS potential.

Mao could be one to beat, but I don't think the judges would've awarded her high PCS unless the other top guns were making mistakes. She had the technical goods and charm but I think her lack of experience and being young would've made the judges hold back a bit with her if there were other clean performances by the top guns.

Yu-Na started hitting her stride in 06 but she would've been lost in the shuffle IMO.

I guess in the end, I honestly think the podium would've been exactly the same. Maybe clean Cohen LP would've gotten the PCS edge over everybody, but Shizuka and Irina would still have the TES.

I think:

1. Arakawa - 70+ SP (she intended to do 3/3) 135ish LP
2. Cohen - same SP 130-135ish LP
3. Slutskaya - same as Sasha (but would need the 3/3), but I think Sasha would edge her on PCS
4. Asada - 64ish SP, 125ish LP
5. Kwan (hate putting her here but what she was capable of was completely unknown)
6. Meissner (that 129 at Worlds means you can't forget her)/Kim
8. Ando/Suguri
10. Rochette

[judgejudy27]

I actually forgot about Meissner briefly. I would have to think a bit where to place her. However she never would have managed the 129 she did at Worlds for the same skate at the Olympics. For starters the scoring at Worlds was much higher than the Olympics. Cohen and Suguri got higher SP scores for badly two footed combos with -2 GOE. Suguri got a much higher LP score at Worlds for a slightly worse performance. On top of all that Meissner was never going to pull the kind of PCS she did in the LP at Worlds which was made possible for her great skate through gaining judged respect through rounds of consistent skating and the situation she was in (weak depleted field, skating lights out after Cohen's splatfest).

She would be lucky to get 120 for the exact same skate at the Olympics.

[Karpenko]

If she were lucky enough to have the caller ratify her 3/3 in the SP and both 3/3's in the long, she would've been in the mix.

I agree about the lower scores, though. The judges ran with her after Sasha made mistakes, but I think over 60 in the SP and low 120 LP could've been possible.

[judgejudy27]

Well I cant imagine the judges leaving a reigning World bronze medalist out of the top 10 in her home country, meaning Kostner of course. Ando or young Kim seem unlikely to be dropped that low too if they skated their best. So I am guessing 1 of Rochette, Suguri, or Meissner (even with her 06 Worlds winning performances) would have been out of the top 10 even skating their best in this completely unrealistic hypothetical everyone else did too. I cant decide which one though.

As for Shizuka I was shocked at her SP score. I didnt expect her to score anywhere near Slutskaya or Cohen in the SP if all 3 went clean with a triple-double combo and she did, since Shizuka is never a spectacular SP skater. So I already knew after that she had a good shot, but I was taken by surprise by that all the same.

[MikiAndoFan#1]

1st - Irina
2nd - Shizuka
3rd - Sasha
4th - Mao
5th - Miki
6th - Michelle
7th - Carolina
8th - Yu-Na
9th - Fumie
10th - Joannie

Arakawa looked almost unbeatable in practices, but I think the judges would have went with Slutskaya for whatever reason.

I agree.

[miki88]

I'd probably go with:
Let's face it . . . the top 3 have the best reputation (all senior World champs in that Olympic quad) and Irina as reigning World champ would get the biggest benefit of doubt and rep boost if everyone theoretically skated their best. Yes, Kwan had struggled at 2005 Worlds, but given this imaginary scenario that everyone is healthy and skating their best, she'd definitely be top 2 given that she had been working really hard for the Olympic season to become COP friendly. Cohen was and should be the odd woman out if all of Irina, Michelle, and Shizuka were at their best. Sasha was always the 2nd American when Michelle was flawless and healthy. Caro was reigning senior World bronze medalist and with her speed, triple+triples, long lines, and talent, she'd be a force if she was on. By winter 2006, Yu-Na was defeating Asada in major junior competition despite Mao having won the senior GPF. Fumie came in as the Japanese champion and 2-time World bronze medalist and 2003/2004 GPF champ having defeated Cohen, so her rep with the judges would have put her over Joannie and Miki. Rochette had not yet come into her own and didn't have the best confidence at this point in her career. I was most unsure of Miki and Joannie - they really could be flip-flopped in the judges' placements. I prefer Rochette's skating skills, style, and attention to choreography over Ando's, so I gave her the edge.

But Junior Worlds was after the Olympics though, and Mao delivered one of the worst performances of her career at the event. If both skated clean at that time, I think Mao definitely had the edge over Yuna, since she just pulled one of the biggest upsets at the GPF and already had a lot of buzz from the media. If everyone skated clean in 2006, then the gold should go to Irina who had the reputation and the adapted well to the technical demands of the CoP. Michelle had the reputation but she did not adapt well to the new system. And by 2006, Sasha was gaining more ground as the no.1 US skater at least to the judges. I remember hearing more about Mao than Shizuka before the 2006 Olympics, so perhaps the judges may be more favorable to the younger Japanese skater if both were allowed to compete.

[MOIJTO]

Cohen would have won hands down! Irina still would have been 2nd and Michelle if healthy would have been 3rd.

[Polymer Bob]

This is like one of those "time machine" discussions in boxing. If you could go back in time and grab the top 15 or 20 boxers throughout history, at their absolute best, and have a big tournament, who would win? Could Joe Louis beat Mike Tyson?

The problem with skating is ..... when do you have the tournament? If you have it after the figures competition was eliminated, maybe Mao or Kim would win. If you have it back in 1960, they might place 12th and 13th.

[museksk8r]

What's really comical about this imaginary scenario is our oversight of Japan being the only nation allowed to have 4 representatives. Had Asada not had the age ban against her and been allowed to compete, Ando wouldn't even be in the discussion here. However, this is a skating fans dream scenario thread, so I guess age bans and 3 national reps limits are nonexistent.

[museksk8r]

But Junior Worlds was after the Olympics though, and Mao delivered one of the worst performances of her career at the event. If both skated clean at that time, I think Mao definitely had the edge over Yuna, since she just pulled one of the biggest upsets at the GPF and already had a lot of buzz from the media.

Ahhh, BUTT, Slutskaya wasn't perfect at the GPF either. It's not like Asada knocked off Irina at her best!

Michelle had the reputation but she did not adapt well to the new system.

You're ignoring the fact that Kwan only skated in ONE COP competition though. By all reports, she had adapted her style to the code by the time of the all important Olympic season. This is a "dream" thread after all.

[judgejudy27]

Yeah that is true. Ando wouldnt have even been at the Games in this scenario. It is funny to think Fumie actually won Japanese Nationals that year.

I honestly cant see Kwan beating Cohen with both going clean under COP under the very safe assumption neither does a triple-triple (well actually Cohen had a triple-triple sequence which gave her 7 triples) but I suppose crazier things have happened.

[miki88]

Ahhh, BUTT, Slutskaya wasn't perfect at the GPF either. It's not like Asada knocked off Irina at her best!

You're ignoring the fact that Kwan only skated in ONE COP competition though. By all reports, she had adapted her style to the code by the time of the all important Olympic season. This is a "dream" thread after all.

But this scenario is assuming that everyone is at their best at that particular time period right? You're also ignoring the fact that Yuna and Mao haven't competed against each other all season until Worlds, so you're essentially basing your predictions on one competition, where one skater was clearly wornout from coming off one of the biggest wins of her career. As for Michelle, I am not sure where she would place since she didn't compete much during pre-Olympic season. It's a dream thread but the orignal poster also said that it is according to what the skaters were capable of during that year, so since we are not sure what Michelle was capable of, it's uncertain how she'll do even if she were healthy.


Actually, based on the personal best scores that the skaters were able to achieve up to that time, then the top four should go like this:


1) Irina
2) Sasha
3) Shizuka
4) Mao

Shizuka actually achieved her PB score at the 2006 Olympics, but since she wasn't perfect there, it does show that she had the potential to get a even higher score.

[museksk8r]

I honestly cant see Kwan beating Cohen with both going clean under COP under the very safe assumption neither does a triple-triple (well actually Cohen had a triple-triple sequence which gave her 7 triples) but I suppose crazier things have happened.

Your proposed scenario in this thread though was "everyone there and at their best" and Kwan at her best was more than capable of clean 7 triples with a triple toe+triple toe. She produced more clean 7 triples LPs than any of these ladies throughout her career. Michelle at her best would have shown up healthy with COP friendly programs too.

[judgejudy27]

Your proposed scenario in this thread though was "everyone there and at their best" and Kwan at her best was more than capable of clean 7 triples with a triple toe+triple toe. She produced more clean 7 triples LPs than any of these ladies throughout her career. Michelle at her best would have shown up healthy with COP friendly programs too.

I meant at their then best, not at their career best. Kwan had not done a triple-triple combination since 2002, and with an aged body which had to heal from various injuries, and not having even tried one in competition for so long I wouldnt consider that as part of her then best even fully healthy. Lets face it, we pretty much know Kwan at that point was not going to be doing a triple-triple. I dont assume Sasha's best included the triple lutz-triple toe she last did in 2003 either.

Mao did skate poorly when she lost to Yu Na at the World Juniors. It is hard to see her losing to Yu Na skating like she did at the Grand Prix final. On the other side though if Kim and Asada had been age eligible Kim would have likely competed as a senior that fall and this would have helped her build a rep faster and maybe been more of a threat at this stocked brilliantly skated Olympics than most of us seem to think she would have been.