How would 2006 womens event in Turin have gone with everyone there and at best

[miki88]

I meant at their then best, not at their career best. Kwan had not done a triple-triple combination since 2002, and with an aged body which had to heal from various injuries, and not having even tried one in competition for so long I wouldnt consider that as part of her then best even fully healthy. Lets face it, we pretty much know Kwan at that point was not going to be doing a triple-triple. I dont assume Sasha's best included the triple lutz-triple toe she last did in 2003 either.

Mao did skate poorly when she lost to Yu Na at the World Juniors. It is hard to see her losing to Yu Na skating like she did at the Grand Prix final. On the other side though if Kim and Asada had been age eligible Kim would have likely competed as a senior that fall and this would have helped her build a rep faster and maybe been more of a threat at this stocked brilliantly skated Olympics than most of us seem to think she would have been.

Maybe, but at that time Yuna haven't even managed to break 180, while Mao's almost managed to hit 190 at the 2005 GPF. It's also true that both Yuna's skating and results dramatically improved after she started training the next year with Orser. Actually, I am curious to know if Mao's presence at the 2006 Olympics would have put more pressure on the veterans since she did create a buzz by beating them all at the Grand prix series. I remember hearing commentators saying that the big guns (Sasha, Irina, Shizuka) should be relieved that she wasn't old enough to compete at the Olympics.

[briancoogaert]

I have no clue. Slutskaya was clearly the favorite of the judges with her incredibly inflated scores throughout the season. But judges seemed to mark her down at the Olympics. So, I'm lost.
With everyone at her best, I would have been with : Arakawa, Slutskaya, Cohen.

[museksk8r]

Maybe, but at that time Yuna haven't even managed to break 180, while Mao's almost managed to hit 190 at the 2005 GPF. It's also true that both Yuna's skating and results dramatically improved after she started training the next year with Orser. Actually, I am curious to know if Mao's presence at the 2006 Olympics would have put more pressure on the veterans since she did create a buzz by beating them all at the Grand prix series. I remember hearing commentators saying that the big guns (Sasha, Irina, Shizuka) should be relieved that she wasn't old enough to compete at the Olympics.

It's one thing though to have your first BIG pressure cooker senior competition be the Olympics without having competed at senior Worlds before and without really establishing a reputation with the judges the way Mao would have been challenged with in 2006 and a totally different thing with Oksana, Tara, and Sarah all going into 1994, 1998, and 2002 as reigning senior World medalists, having had more time to establish their reps with the judges and beating reputable skaters on more than one occasion. Who knows how Mao would have done in Torino dealing with that level of pressure in a senior competition for the first time? Think Tara Lipinski at the 1996 Worlds or Sasha Cohen at the 2002 Olympics. Besides, the only eventual 2006 Olympic medalist that Mao had faced at the GPF was Irina. Both Shizuka and Sasha were not even there, so it's not like Asada had beaten a totally loaded field at that GPF; plus, as I mentioned before, Irina was not at her best at that competition . . . it was an underwhelming GPF event actually.

[miki88]

It's one thing though to have your first BIG pressure cooker senior competition be the Olympics without having competed at senior Worlds before and without really establishing a reputation with the judges the way Mao would have been challenged with in 2006 and a totally different thing with Oksana, Tara, and Sarah all going into 1994, 1998, and 2002 as reigning senior World medalists, having had more time to establish their reps with the judges and beating reputable skaters on more than one occasion. Who knows how Mao would have done in Torino dealing with that level of pressure in a senior competition for the first time? Think Tara Lipinski at the 1996 Worlds or Sasha Cohen at the 2002 Olympics. Besides, the only eventual 2006 Olympic medalist that Mao had faced at the GPF was Irina. Both Shizuka and Sasha were not even there, so it's not like Asada had beaten a totally loaded field at that GPF; plus, as I mentioned before, Irina was not at her best at that competition . . . it was an underwhelming GPF event actually.

Mao met up with all three of the eventual medalists during the Grand Prix series. She beat both Sasha and Shizuka at her two earlier Grand prix events prior to meeting up with Irina at the GPF. I didn't say Mao would beat Irina at her best then. (Anyways, you used the same argument for putting Yuna above Mao when she clearly wasn't at her best at Junior Worlds that year.) I am just curious how it would have turned out had she been allowed to be compete there. I think it would probably have been a much more exciting Olympics than how it turned out to be.

[judgejudy27]

Asada actuaully was a combined 5-1 vs Cohen, Arakawa, and Slutskaya that year. A perfect 3-0 vs Arakawa, 1-0 vs Cohen, and 1-1 vs Slutskaya. Not that it neccessarily means too much and certainly doesnt mean she was ever a shoo in or anything but interesting nonetheless.

[Cheylana]

I think a perfect Cohen would have gotten the gold. The judges had been salivating to give her gold her entire career, she just never delivered. Then I guess Irina with the silver, Shizuka with bronze. Asada would have gotten the "wait your turn" treatment and finished fourth or so.

[Indra486]

Since Miki is included in this discussion, despite the technicality that was pointed out, and we're going by the scenario that everyone hits their planned programs, wouldn't Miki place higher? She was aiming for a quad. Her PCS would certainly hold her back but I would think that Miki would place a bit higher than where she's is currently (looking at various lists). I suppose her quad could balance out the low PCS so her ranking might be about correct from what most of you have said.

[judgejudy27]

Miki was planning a quad? This is news to me. The last quad I even saw her try was at a cheesefest in 2004 and it was horribly cheated, basically 3.25 rotations.

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Miki was planning a quad? This is news to me. The last quad I even saw her try was at a cheesefest in 2004 and it was horribly cheated, basically 3.25 rotations.

Didn't she attempt one at the Olympics?

--'

So she obviously planned one.

[Fallcolor]

My opinion- Cohen would have the highest PCS, but Arakawa would have won in TES and enough to win gold overall.

Frankly I’m confused as to why so many people chose Slutskaya. For me, the most telling sign that she would not win if the ladies skated clean was the fact that Sasha hung onto 1st place (rightfully so) after the SP despite having –GOE on 2 jump elements (flutz and axel). Her PCS was almost a full point ahead of Slutskaya/Arakawa, and the scores were only factored at 0.8!
(btw judgejudy, correct me if i'm wrong, but Arakawa only planned one 3-3 in the LP- the sal+toe, since she wasn’t doing the 3lz+3loop combo anymore during her full run-thrus). Regarding TES, I think Arakawa would have been 1st, Slutskaya 2nd. Arakawa was the only lady to gain level 4’s on spins and 3’s on footwork, had a slightly higher base value, but most of all the GOE’s and the quality of her jumps were far ahead of Slutskaya. Slutskaya’s landings carried no speed, were not of high quality, but the judges seemed to love big/high jumps anyways so they would probably give her higher GOE’s than Cohen. Cohen would have probably been 3rd on TES with no 3+3.

PCS- Cohen would have won on that, for sure. Now, others may disagree with me on this, but I think Arakawa would have gotten slightly higher PCS than Slutskaya, even if reputation helped Slutskaya. Arakawa tends to show her beautiful qualities better in the LP than in the SP, so it is not surprising that Slutskaya slightly got higher PCS in the SP. Slutskaya is more of a powerful, quick skater, and her SP showcased her strengths more than the LP did. After the SP Arakawa was almost tied with Slute on PCS so the judges obvi liked her. But I think Slutskaya knew she was in trouble because the SP was where she could have made a big lead for herself but didn't. A clean Sasha (or Michelle) would almost always beat Slutskaya in PCS. Oh, and i didn't include Kwan b/c we never saw her compete that season. Charlie cyr mentioned she did her homework on levels etc but...so did Slutskaya and Cohen, who lost levels in the spins and footwork. So who knows.

But... i'm torn on Arakawa and Cohen in the LP! I guess the question is would Sasha garner enough PCS to beat Arakawa's TES.
IMO the results would be:

1. Arakawa (71 if she did 3+3 in SP+ 135 in LP)
2. Cohen (66+134-135?)
3. Slutskaya (66+130)
4. Asada (64+125)
5. Kostner (66+120ish)
6. Meissner
7. Suguri
8. Rochette
9. Ando

[judgejudy27]

For me, the most telling sign that she would not win if the ladies skated clean was the fact that Sasha hung onto 1st place (rightfully so) after the SP despite having –GOE on 2 jump elements (flutz and axel).

Sasha usually gets -GOE on even some of her clean jumps, especialy the flutz once the judges began to score it correctly. At the 2005 Worlds she had only 2 jumps at most with small mistakes and still had -GOE on 4 of her 7 jumping passes. For her standards that was the best she could do, in fact it is still probably her best SP performance ever. She also was lucky to skate last of the contenders in the SP.

[Fallcolor]

sorry i cannot agree! In 05 she only got -GOE on (f)lutz, 3flip that she stumbled on and 3+3seq on a step out, so it's understandable. When her jumps were clean she never got -GOE's.
In Torino, i actually thought that other than the first 3 LP jumps, the rest of her jumps were the best quality ones she's ever done. It didn't have the usual fragile shaky edge landing we usually see from her. In fact at the olympics imo her GOE's were somewhat undermarked. The 3+3seq was 2 footed at the end, but a -1.14 is a bit harsh, no? when compared to Slutskaya's -.29 for a 2footed 3flip. Sasha's 3f+2t was beautiful, even if it was tiny, but got no GOE.

[bardtoob]

"At there best" . . . since Asada had beaten Cohen and Slutskaya earlier in the season, I think she would have won.

Podium:

1. Asada
2. Slutskaya
3. Kwan
4. Cohen (assuming her best means only one screw up)

[judgejudy27]

A triple flutz for Sasha is a clean triple lutz for her. She isnt capable of doing it as anything other than a flutz, she never once has in competition atleast. And she usually got -GOE on it even landing it cleanly once the judges began scoring it correctly (she was lucky she didnt compete now as it would be scored far worse today). So to count that as a "mistake" in any form for her makes no sense.

Even with her shaky double axel (and Sasha even at her best is good for atleast one of those) it was still the best short program performance she ever did according to most. That was Sasha at her best, and she still probably wouldnt have even won the short if she didnt skate last considering she won it by only 0.03 as it was.

I also think the judges scored Sasha's jump GOE correctly in Turin. Most of them should be 0s IMHO. Sasha's strength is everything outside the jumps and her medicore basic skating. Her jumps are small and quite ordinary in everyway with sometimes bad takeoff technique even when she does make them. In 2004 she was getting outrageous GOE on her jumps (far higher than say then nobody Arakawa in the same events) so it was nice to see them scored correctly in her final 2 injury marred seasons (apart from blip of a comeback).

[UGG]

Well, if we are going by the way they were skating currently at that time, I would say the top 4 would have been Irina, Shiz, Mao, Sasha.The best Irina ever skated was 2005 worlds LP. if she had skated like that she would have won. Shizuka would have been a close second, even if she had done a 3/3, I just do not see how the judges would deny Irina the gold with that type of skate. I think Mao would have taken the bronze with a clean skate. Sasha's very best has always included some type of error. She has never skated an error free program so I cannot put her at the top because her best was never good enough, sadly. I don't know where to fit Kimmie in here. She skated amazing at worlds. I guess I would put her ahead of Sasha because technically it was better than anything Sasha was capeable of. maybe I would even put her third. I have no idea how to rank Michelle. Based on the previous season, and how she skated at that cheesefest, she would really not be in the mix due to her hip injury. But we really truly do not know.

[Domshabfan]

If everyone was clean, by looking at the SP scores i would think that panel of judges would award the gold to Sasha Cohen, silver to Mao, Bronze to Arakawa or Slutskaya. I think Shiz would be favored for bronze medal considering how she almost outscored Ira with a slighly flawed combination jump. Yuna would have rounded of top 5.

But, as we all know, Sasha could never deliver two back to back clean performance at a competition, hence Mao would have taken the gold ahead Shiz and Ira. i do think scores would have been so tight that Yuna would have had a realistic chance for gold, after all Yuna did finish ahead of Mao later that year at the world Juniors and successfully did a 3+3 in both her programs.

[barbk]

I'm not sure even how to consider what Sasha's best might have been given that she never, ever delivered a clean short and a clean long in a senior competition -- at least not once that I remember. Do you hypothesize that this might be that one time when everything works (It's a Miracle!) or are we talking "skates her best" given a more likely jump scenario?

I mean, using the "skates her best" theory I'd guess any number of skaters could have won in 2006. I just don't think you can completely get away from competition psyche -- some skaters are (and were, then) much better competitors than others. Czisny is a beautiful skater on so many levels, but she has big nerve problems and is not a good competitor. Do you set up the hypothetical competition as if those nerves weren't an issue and Czisny magically lands every jump along with delivering her wow spins? (And I know Czisny wasn't at the Olympics in 2006, but she's the best example that comes right to mind.)

Maybe it would make more sense to consider what if each skater in the event had skated her SP as well as she'd skated her SP at any of the GP or Euro/4CC events that season, and the same for the LP. Then you'd at least be in the realm of the reasonably possible.

[taf2002]

For all the contenders who were actually there, I think we have to take the results that they actually had...Sasha with 2 falls, Shizuka with only 5 triples & no 3/3, & Irina with a completely lackluster LP. There is no reason to believe they could have done anything other than what they did. Same with Fumie, Miki, et all.

We can only speculate about what Mao, Yuna, & Michelle would have done. In my dream scenerio Michelle is healthy with 3 & 4 levels on everything & her 3T/3T successful. So the result is

Kwan
Shizuka
Cohen
Slutskya

No way do the judges let either of the 14yr olds win.

[Indra486]

Didn't she attempt one at the Olympics?

--'

So she obviously planned one.

Yep, she did and she fell on it. I was wondering where Miki would have placed with a successful quad and triple-triple since we're all assuming that everyone would land their planned jump layout.

[judgejudy27]

No way do the judges let either of the 14yr olds win.

Mao and Yu Na were both 15.