Tonya Harding at the 1993 U.S. National Championships

[gkelly]

OK, here's what Ben Wright has to say about those ladies' fall 1992 results in his Skating in America book:

Skate America
Kerrigan 2
Bobek 6
Ervin 8

Skate Canada
Harding 4

Nation's Cup
Kwiatkowski 5

Chrysler pro-am (first cheesefest )
Kerrigan 1
Harding 2

NHK
Ervin 10
(incidentally, Kyoko Ina was 8th)

Jr. Worlds
Ervin 2
Bobek 16

[judgejudy27]

It is funny how Szewcenko placed only 3rd and 4th at Junior Worlds in late 92 and late 93, yet placed much higher at Senior Worlds those same seasons than any of the women who beat her at Junior Worlds.

[dr.frog]

I was at that nationals. What a mess of a competition.

IIRC, Harding skated first in the final group. She landed, what, 3 triples? Folks I was sitting with were all wondering why she had so little content, and thought her marks were too high for what she did.

Bobek and Kwiatkowski were both really sloppy. I always figured the thing that tipped the balance in Kwiatkowski's favor was that she landed the only triple lutz in the final group.

Kerrigan was slow as molasses and looked like a nervous wreck, but after Harding failed to deliver any kind of serious challenge it was obvious that she was going to win no matter what just based on seniority.

Ervin didn't have the difficulty in her jump repertoire, but she was the only one in the final group to go out there and really attack her program and performance. Really, the only two performances from that entire ladies free skate competition that left any kind of positive impression were Ervin's and Kwan's. The rest were all somewhere between and .

[Margot]

I was also at the 1993 Nationals. I was disappointed Kwiatkowski placed 3rd over Harding. Then Kwiatkowski didn't make the cut at Worlds and the US could send only 2 skaters to the 94 Olympics and Worlds.

[Marco]

Then Kwiatkowski didn't make the cut at Worlds and the US could send only 2 skaters to the 94 Olympics and Worlds.

Incidentally if Harding had gone and placed top 8 at 1993 Worlds, US would have 3 spots and she probably wouldn't have to whack Kerrigan. (And Kwan would have competed in Lillehammer)

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Who knows though. Maybe Harding wanted to make sure she was the no. 1 U.S. lady going into Lillehamar. It wasn't that she just wanted to be on the team, but she wanted to take Kerrigan out of the equation altogether thus gain complete USFSA political backing. Harding may have been so desperate at that point that she felt she would never be in favor as long as Kerrigan was still viable for the Olympics, even if Harding shaped up in time for 1994 Nationals.

Of course my theory only works if we believe that Harding had any involvement with the whack,

[Tony Wheeler]

Incidentally if Harding had gone and placed top 8 at 1993 Worlds, US would have 3 spots and she probably wouldn't have to whack Kerrigan. (And Kwan would have competed in Lillehammer)

No.. Pretty sure you needed a medal back then to earn three spots for your country, so no, the USA would have been set with two skaters unless Tonya would have gotten into some miraculous shape between Nationals and Worlds and pulled off a podium placement.

We were just discussing the 13 points or less rule in another thread, and it was passed at the ISU Congress in 1996, and went into place during the ISU Championships in 1997 for determining spots in 1998.

[briancoogaert]

but Harding looked like she was working her way back to form, and may have done better at Worlds than even Kerrigan's fifth place.

Considering how well Surya Bonaly, Lu Chen and even Oksana Baiul and Yuka Sato skated at 1993 Worlds, I don't think Tonya Harding could have been better than Kerrigan's 5th place.
Anyway, she could have easily been the 2nd US skater at those Worlds.

[Marco]

No.. Pretty sure you needed a medal back then to earn three spots for your country, so no, the USA would have been set with two skaters unless Tonya would have gotten into some miraculous shape between Nationals and Worlds and pulled off a podium placement.

We were just discussing the 13 points or less rule in another thread, and it was passed at the ISU Congress in 1996, and went into place during the ISU Championships in 1997 for determining spots in 1998.

Thanks Tony. I had no idea.

Guess that means the only way to have Kwan at Lillehammer besides wishing ill on Kerrigan's recovery is to have Harding confess before then (which would never have happened).

[judgejudy27]

Considering how well Surya Bonaly, Lu Chen and even Oksana Baiul and Yuka Sato skated at 1993 Worlds, I don't think Tonya Harding could have been better than Kerrigan's 5th place.
Anyway, she could have easily been the 2nd US skater at those Worlds.

Sato didnt skate that well though. Only a triple loop combo in the short which is why she ended up 6th in the short when Kerrigan, Baiul, Bonaly, Choinaurd, and Chen all cleanly landed triple lutz combos. Then in the long only 4 triples managed- a triple lutz, two triple loops, and one triple salchow.

[IceKween]

Frankly, the way Harding was skating in that 92/93 season, and coming off her disastrous Worlds, I was ready for new blood to go to Worlds in 93. Harding always had the potential, but by that time it seemed her mind, lifestyle, and body were betraying her skating. Had she TRIED in that LP at 93 Nats, maybe I'd have thought she deserved to go to Worlds. But she didn't. It was just same old same old that we'd seen for an entire year. So, even though I thought both Ervin and Kwiatkowski were inferior skaters to Harding, they at least seemed to be trying, and maybe a Worlds would give them a boost. Of course I fell in love with Nicole Bobek at that Nats and thought she should have been on the World team, bumping Kwiatkowski.
I just figured USFSA wanted to give an early Valentine to Carol Heiss Jenkins. Her skaters showed up poised, sane, and trying. And I also don't think the USFSA was thinking Kerrigan was going to blow up at Worlds, so let's give the newbies a shot at earning experience on the world stage.
I have the feeling that if Tonya did make the World team that year, she'd have shown up in even worse shape, and bungled it all up anyway. She needed a 'lesson' that year, o/w she was just going to do the same thing over and over again.

[judgejudy27]

I always thought Bobek was kept off the team by the U.S judges that year because of her nightmarish World Juniors, both as far as her skating (that 16th place finish in an event Ervin was 2nd) and her off ice behavior. Wasnt she arrested for raiding a mini bar at those Junior Worlds in Korea.

I can totally see why Ervin made it that year. She was the only one to do almost a clean long program even without any of the harder triples, and she was very young and had been the U.S's top junior skater for years. Kwiatkowski is harder to figure. She didnt skate well at Nationals at all either, landing only 2 triples, taking a hard fall and making other mistakes. She was not really new, she was already a middle aged skater in her early 20s who did not have much future potential. She actually surprised me by hanging on another quad after the 94 season and being a late bloomer who went beyond what I thought was her potential in the 95-98 quad (which was still only a solid journeywomen type skater).

[briancoogaert]

Sato didnt skate that well though. Only a triple loop combo in the short which is why she ended up 6th in the short when Kerrigan, Baiul, Bonaly, Choinaurd, and Chen all cleanly landed triple lutz combos. Then in the long only 4 triples managed- a triple lutz, two triple loops, and one triple salchow.

Yes, that's why I put her in a second group. But IMO, her LP was good enough to beat a not perfect Harding (more likely to happen).

[casken]

Considering how well Surya Bonaly, Lu Chen and even Oksana Baiul and Yuka Sato skated at 1993 Worlds, I don't think Tonya Harding could have been better than Kerrigan's 5th place.
Anyway, she could have easily been the 2nd US skater at those Worlds.

Yes, Harding was known as a technical skater, but she consistently pulled higher presentation marks in 91 and 92 than Bonaly. The international judges actually seemed to really liker her at the time. Her presentation marks went up over her technical ones in the sp at 91 worlds, and her program was the exact type that judges usually go down on presentation for.

If she had skated at 93 worlds and done a clean a short and at least a 5 triple LP, I think she probably would have been second ahead of Bonaly, and at least third ahead of Chen, who the judges were still cool to at this point. The 3 axel probably would have got her the title.

[judgejudy27]

Bonaly had absolutely horrible presentation in 91 and 92. Of course Harding got much higher presentation scores since her presentation was so much better at that point, and Bonaly is even less of a judges favorite than Harding to boot. Harding still wasnt a judges favorite in her career even when she had a much higher rep and status in 91-92. How she was scored at the 92 Olympics even for what she did relative to the other contenders is proof of that. Bonaly had improved her presentation a huge amount in the 93 season, probably the biggest single season improvement she had made. Bonaly did 7 triples, 2 triple lutzes, and a triple-triple combination at Worlds. No way does the U.S #2 skater Harding beat Bonaly's performance in Prague with just 5 triples, heck I am pretty sure she wouldnt have even beaten Chen with that despite the judges coolness to Chen. Baiul is the only one who would have been placed over Bonaly's triple packed program with just 5 triples, and perhaps Kerrigan. Remember all the USFSA backing would have been behind Kerrigan at Worlds even if Harding were there. Harding would have had to work for anything she got at Worlds and would have needed 6 or 7 triples to even hope to medal.

A 3 axel for Harding at the 93 Worlds? She had landed maybe 1 triple lutz the entire season.

[essence_of_soy]

Bonaly had absolutely horrible presentation in 91 and 92. Of course Harding got much higher presentation scores since her presentation was so much better at that point, and Bonaly is even less of a judges favorite than Harding to boot. Harding still wasnt a judges favorite in her career even when she had a much higher rep and status in 91-92. How she was scored at the 92 Olympics even for what she did relative to the other contenders is proof of that. Bonaly had improved her presentation a huge amount in the 93 season, probably the biggest single season improvement she had made. Bonaly did 7 triples, 2 triple lutzes, and a triple-triple combination at Worlds. No way does the U.S #2 skater Harding beat Bonaly's performance in Prague with just 5 triples, heck I am pretty sure she wouldnt have even beaten Chen with that despite the judges coolness to Chen. Baiul is the only one who would have been placed over Bonaly's triple packed program with just 5 triples, and perhaps Kerrigan. Remember all the USFSA backing would have been behind Kerrigan at Worlds even if Harding were there. Harding would have had to work for anything she got at Worlds and would have needed 6 or 7 triples to even hope to medal.

A 3 axel for Harding at the 93 Worlds? She had landed maybe 1 triple lutz the entire season.

Two things to note.

Harding was working her way back to form. If you compare her performances from Skate Canada and the US Pro / Am to Nationals, she did far better in Phoenix. Also, comparing Harding (at her best) to Bonaly, is like comparing apples to well, bananas. Tonya could generate tremendous speed with just a few strokes, and she had deep edges as well. Surya's skating was very choppy, and needed to take a lot of strokes between elements.

Also, Kerrigan really wasn't that much better than Harding at 93 Nationals, and as the No. 1 ranked skater in the country with a middling performance, this result was a factor in Kerrigan's attack in Detroit.

[essence_of_soy]

I was at that nationals. What a mess of a competition.

IIRC, Harding skated first in the final group. She landed, what, 3 triples? Folks I was sitting with were all wondering why she had so little content, and thought her marks were too high for what she did.

Bobek and Kwiatkowski were both really sloppy. I always figured the thing that tipped the balance in Kwiatkowski's favor was that she landed the only triple lutz in the final group.

Kerrigan was slow as molasses and looked like a nervous wreck, but after Harding failed to deliver any kind of serious challenge it was obvious that she was going to win no matter what just based on seniority.

Ervin didn't have the difficulty in her jump repertoire, but she was the only one in the final group to go out there and really attack her program and performance. Really, the only two performances from that entire ladies free skate competition that left any kind of positive impression were Ervin's and Kwan's. The rest were all somewhere between and .

I though Kerry Anne Thomas skated to the worst music in the history of skating for her short program in Phoenix. There must have been a gazillion music cuts, all awful.

[casken]

A 3 axel for Harding at the 93 Worlds? She had landed maybe 1 triple lutz the entire season.

Well we were discussing "what if" situations, so I was doing just that.

I still think if Harding managed to show up in shape and did two clean solid programs with at least Lutz/Flip/Loop/Sal/Toe/2Axel in the free she would have edged out Bonaly.

[essence_of_soy]

Well we were discussing "what if" situations, so I was doing just that.

I still think if Harding managed to show up in shape and did two clean solid programs with at least Lutz/Flip/Loop/Sal/Toe/2Axel in the free she would have edged out Bonaly.

Considering this scenario, then Nancy would have needed someone to crack Tonya on the knee to make sure she was the number one skater heading into Lillehammer.

[judgejudy27]

Well we were discussing "what if" situations, so I was doing just that.

I still think if Harding managed to show up in shape and did two clean solid programs with at least Lutz/Flip/Loop/Sal/Toe/2Axel in the free she would have edged out Bonaly.

I think you are vastly overrating how the judges perceived Harding at that point in time, and would perceive her as the distant #2 U.S skater politically. You actually brought up an example from 1991 Worlds. Please dont tell me you actually believe Harding would have had the same respect and status from international judges in 1993 as she did going into the 1991 Worlds as the new U.S Champion (beating Kristi Yamaguchi). It was nothing the same by that point, international judges like National judges already considered her a skater on the way down. Harding didnt skate well at Skate Canada at all but that event is another example. At Skate Canada that season with 2 triples she couldnt even beat Chouinard with only 1 or Clays with 3, and when she did a clean short there with a double loop combination her marks were plunged all into the mid 4s for required elements (a skater seen as a leader would have been held up all in the low 5s). Then at NHK the next season didnt she skate a clean short and still be placed 7th in the short? Baiul who got far higher presentation score than Harding with just 5 triples would ever get at that point nearly still lost to Bonaly at those Worlds (should have lost to both Chen and Bonaly but anyway). As you said it is all speculation though.