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  1. #1

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    Kentucky Derby 2010

    So one week before the KY Derby and we've lost the favorite, Eskenderaya. Pletcher reported Eskenderaya has a "filling" in his front leg and will no longer be pointed to the Triple Crown races. Further testing will be done this week to see exactly what the issue is.

    Pletcher has 5 horses and will possibly be entering a filly named Devil May Care. She will be cross entered in both the Derby and the Oaks.

    Eskenderaya out of Derby

  2. #2
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    I've been more interested in Lookin At Lucky, and given how out of left field most of the preps have been, I'm not exactly heartbroken to lose Eskenderaya. (Heard on TVG this morning.) At least they didn't wait until the morning of like with I Want Revenge!

    And of course the other big news is Rachel Alexandra may be entered on the Derby undercard in the La Troienne. Rumor has it her works have been improving.

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    This has nothing to do with this year's Derby, but a bunch of my family/friends are planning on going to next year's. Sounds like a fun experience!

  4. #4
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    Devil May Care is IN and will not be entered in the Oaks, per Todd Pletcher this morning.

    And Rule is out. So Jackson Bend and Backtalk move up into the gate.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by danceronice View Post
    Devil May Care is IN and will not be entered in the Oaks, per Todd Pletcher this morning.

    And Rule is out. So Jackson Bend and Backtalk move up into the gate.
    Backtalk only gets in if Interactif doesn't run. Pletcher said he may not run him. Devil May Care is already in the lineup due to her graded stakes earnings.

    Here's the Current list:
    Updated Graded Stakes List

    btw: Backtalk is the son of Smarty Jones.

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    Pletcher confirms that Interactif won't run....now Backtalk is in.

    Interesting article from DRF

    Derby Changes in 24 Hours

  7. #7
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    I hope Smarty Jones' stud fee is way, way lower than it used to be (it's "private", word has it it's WAY down from its initial fee, which makes sense as Birdstone's offspring have whipped his offsprings' rears in earnings so far.)

    Same article I saw this morning had Pletcher saying Interactif wasn't going. It was pretty much a given. And I wonder how much the decision on Devil May Care came from her jockey being free now Eskenderaya is out. (Apparently he's going to be sold in the fall and Fifth Third's protecting their investment.) I'm surprised about Rule.

    Thoroughbred Times had some pretty pictures on their Facebook page this afternoon of American Lion.

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    Interesting article by Andy Beyer...who irritates me sometimes...but has some excellent points. His take on trainers/owners who enter their horses in the KY Derby when they really shouldn't.

    Nevertheless, Churchill Downs's starting gate will be filled to capacity on Saturday. The rules of the Derby limit the field to 20 entrants, and for the sixth straight year the race has attracted the maximum number. This is a new phenomenon. From 1985 to 2004, the Derby didn't have a single 20-horse field. The numbers reflect the sustained popularity of the event, but there is also a disturbing development that has helped create these 20-horse fields. Most trainers have stopped employing sound judgment and horsemanship to determine whether a horse belongs in the Derby.
    and

    Last year, after one entrant was scratched, a total of 19 horses started in the Derby. Of them, 16 did not win a race for the remainder of the year. Six didn't race more than once. Promising colts regressed and couldn't regain their form after their Derby venture. It is understandable that almost any owner and trainer wants to experience the excitement of the Kentucky Derby, but it is an experience that often comes at a high price.


    Andy Beyer

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    Interesting point (he annoys me at times, too) but the fact remains they have to earnings-qualify, which means they're beating or finishing in the money either in a LOT of company (not the case these days with 2 and 3yo) or against expensive, ie stakes, company. Though there is a horse in this year whose last win was an allowance. Which doesn't say a whole lot for the three-year-old crops lately in general.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danceronice View Post
    Devil May Care is IN and will not be entered in the Oaks, per Todd Pletcher this morning.
    Bummer. I'm going to the Oaks this year and I was looking forward to seeing her run.

  11. #11
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    The Kentucky Derby is a great event to go to, not a fan of watching it on TV, but I've gone in-person twice and had a blast.

  12. #12
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    I wish I could go! I've never had the chance.

  13. #13
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    Endorsement fractured his leg in a bullet work and is out. Interactif may or may not be in (if he's out Make Music For Me is in). Draw is today at noon so we'll have a final list.

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    http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...rby-field.aspx

    Field is up! Interactif is OUT. Lookin At Lucky is the morning-line favorite and draws post 1, while ML second choice Sidney's Candy draws #20! The filly Devil May Care is in 11, and will put on blinkers.

    I am kind of rooting for Sidney's Candy for Joe Talamo's sake.

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    I don't understand about the odds (like 20-1 or 8-1). Is it the higher the number the better chance the horse has, or the lower? In that example, which horse is the better choice?

    I am picking Dean's Kitten ... 'cause of the factor.
    Last edited by BaileyCatts; 05-01-2010 at 10:24 PM.

  16. #16

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    There's been too many fluff pieces on the owners and not enough stories on the horsies. I want fluff pieces on the horses.

  17. #17
    drinky typo pbp, closet hugger
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    wheee, Derby Day! I was going to go to a Derby party this afternoon but it didn't work out, so here am I. All I know about the entrants this year I've gotten from this thread, so I don't know who I'm rooting for yet, although I love Calvin Borel and would be thrilled if he won again.

    Bailey - the lower the odds, the more likely the horse is to win. So, a horse at 20-to-1 is not considered very likely to win (although last year's winner entered the race at a whopping 50-to-1 ).

    PML love the Baffert fluff on MTB winning last year. "it's that frickin' Calvin Borel!"

    ETA: ok, there's a filly, plus it's a Pletcher horse. I'll root for her .
    Q: Why can't I read the competition threads?
    A: Competition forums on the board are available to those with a Season Pass or a premium membership How to View Kiss & Cry

  18. #18
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    Actually, the lower the odds, the more bettors think he's going to win (so ironically the less he's worth to the bettors.) The way people bet the Derby, the odds often border on meaningless (like their contest winner putting $100k on Super Saver. Hoookay.) There are SO many people betting, so many horses where there's no real way to gauge how they'll handle a mile and quarter (none have run that far yet this early in their three-year-old year) and this year so many are coming off synthetic and have never run on dirt...in the past there have been horses who've not only never run a mile and a quarter but have never even raced two turns. And today you have a LOT of betting action based on the track being sloppy as some horses who might be fastest don't like mud.

    In most races, from a "sure thing" perspective if someone's a prohibitive favorite with very short odds, bet them, and if you want to make money either bet something a little longer or start playing exotics. (I made $59 off a $2 bet boxing an exacta--I picked two horses to win and place in either order, plus I was also holding a $2 win ticket on the winner.) In the Derby, who knows?

    Sentimental pick: I "know" the pony rider on Mission Impazable, and I would love to see Sidney's Candy win for Joe Talamo. Serious: God knows. Devil May Care has blinkers on, Lucky's are off.....who knows?

  19. #19
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    HOly crap...what's $100k on a 7-1 shot pay?

    (And Borel on the rail....)

  20. #20

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    #4 Super Saver!!?? Was that the horse the guy put the $100,000 on?!! How much money did that dude just win!
    Last edited by BaileyCatts; 05-01-2010 at 11:43 PM.

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