You forgot Cesario on your initial JGP ladies list, oleada!
You forgot Cesario on your initial JGP ladies list, oleada!
Yeah, I meant to include her
Jiang was struggling with her jumps at Bluebonnet Open. I hope she gets her loop, toe and sal consistent by August.
ETA: is she doing another summer comp? Personally I would monitor if I were USFSA
Last edited by jlai; 06-26-2010 at 05:46 PM.
Jiang is scheduled to compete at Liberty next, as is Angela Wang.
I'm more impressed with Gracie Gold than I remembered. During Nationals, I thought she was kind of a jumping bean, pretty dry presentation and not good non-jump elements; but I rewatched a video of her and her spins, spirals and basics are all better than I remembered (still think she's pretty dry presentation wise, but she's 14, so she's got tons of time to work on that). If she does well over the summer, I can see her being an alternate for the JGP despite her 4th place as a Novice.
I first saw Gracie Gold live when she won the Intermediate Ladies FS event at Liberty several years ago with a single Axel, solid doubles, many cool transitions, and LOTS of expression and charisma. While she can land the triples now through Lutz, I do miss the young skater Gracie I remember.
Last edited by Sylvia; 06-26-2010 at 06:52 PM.
Using the USFS emphasis on good national results, I'd probably give an initial assignment to Gao, Baga, Cesario, Siraj, Davis, Jiang, and Zhang. But for the alternates, I would focus a lot more on summer competition results and wouldn't mind if USFS would skip nationals placements, e.g., if Gracie Gold does better than the other juniors not yet assigned and novices who beat her at nationals, then she would get an assignment before them.
Last year, USFSA assigned 5 senior ladies to JGP:
Angela Maxwell (8 S)
Laney Diggs (10 S)
Kristene Musademba (11 S)
Taylor Firth (13 S)
Karen Zhou (19 S)
Of these skaters, only Maxwell and Musademba, who had done JGP the year before and made the JGPF, got 2nd assignments.
Last year, the juniors division at nationals was a bit of a splatfest though, DeeDee Leng the winner fell 2 times in her FS, Kawamura the silver medalist fell 2 times in her FS (and that was the WINNING FS), Gao the bronze medalist fell 3 times in her FS. Further, no junior lady cracked 80 points for her nationals FS so maybe that was why the USFSA chose to send so many senior ladies.
This year, the only senior ladies who are being considered for JGP are:
Christina Gao (5 S)
Samantha Cesario (14 S)
Kristene Gong (16 S)
Ellie Kawamura (21 S)
Gong and Kawamura may not even get assignments and may get sent to Senior Bs instead, however, even if all four senior ladies are given initial JGP assignments, I tend to think only Gao and Cesario will place well enough to get a 2nd assignment.
Of the junior ladies, I think Siraj and Baga are definitely capable of earning 2 assignments. I also think Jiang and Wang are capable of getting 2 assignments so long as they skate well...
- Nina may not have as much technical difficulty as some of the other girls but the jumps she does have are nice, she has good spins, basics, presence, flexibility, expression sort of like Kiri last season so that she should be able to place well so long as she lands most of her jumps.
- Angela Wang is very talented with a lot of technical difficulty the only thing is that she may be in jeopardy of getting an initial assignment because of her placement at nationals. That being said, if she does get a 1st assignment, I bet she will do well and earn a 2nd.
Other junior ladies being considered are Lindsay Davis and Felicia Zhang.
- Lindsay I'm not too impressed with but she did place well at nationals and win silver at Gardenia so I think she will get an initial assignment. She may not get a 2nd assignment though just because I don't know how well she can expect to place where she doesn't have that much technical difficulty and the rest of her skating, at least IMO, isn't as strong as someone like Nina.
- Felicia seems to have more of a future in pairs and may be given JGP or GP assignments for pairs and not singles. She is a nice skater and may get an initial JGP assignment for singles though, but probably not 2, because with the pairs it may be too much.
In terms of novice ladies, Leah Keiser is too young, so that leaves Cain, Kulgyeko, and Gold.
-Ashley is maybe in the same boat as Felicia where she does pairs and seems to have more of a future in that. Maybe one assignment but likely not 2 because that might be too many competitions if she gets 2 assignments for pairs.
- Katarina is probably 1st in line of the novice ladies to get a JGP assignment and has some very nice qualities and could potentially get a 2nd event. At nationals she had 3t, 3s, and I think 3f but she popped the jump in the LP. She's been in Russia training though so she may have more jumps ready in the fall.
- Gracie has a lot of promise but where she placed 4th in novice she may not really be considered for JGP this year, if she does well in summer competitions though, she may get an assignment and even earn a 2nd, as she does have all her triples.
It will be interesting to see Ashley in the coming seasons. She seems so tall, I hope she doesn't outgrow pairs...Ashley is maybe in the same boat as Felicia where she does pairs and seems to have more of a future in that. Maybe one assignment but likely not 2 because that might be too many competitions if she gets 2 assignments for pairs.
So I see a few different possibilities:
Option 1: Gong and Kawamura are given assignments, Zhang and Cain are given singles assignments. (assume 1 event for all 4 girls)
1 assignment -
4/14 slots used
Skaters likely to 2 assignments each -
12/14 slots used
The remaining 2 slots (1 each) would likely go to -
14/14 slots used
Skaters on ISP with no assignments: Wang, Kulgyeko, Gold
Option 2: Gong and Kawamura are not given JGP assignments and compete at Senior Bs and/or regionals/sectionals instead. Zhang and Cain are still given JGP assignments for singles (assume 1 each as both will likely get pairs assignments as well)
1 assignment -
2/14 slots used
Skaters likely to get 2 assignments each:
10/14 slots used
The remaining 4 slots would likely go to:
If 1 each
If 1 or 2 each
Jiang* (1 or 2)
Wang* (1 or 2)
14/14 slots used
Skaters on ISP with no assignments: Gold, possibly Kulgyeko
Option 3: Gong and Kawamura are not given events and Zhang and Cain are not given events in singles.
Skaters likely to get 2 assignments:
8/14 slots used
The remaining 6 slots would likely go to:
Jiang* (1 or 2)
Wang* (1 or 2)
14/14 slots used
In this method all the skaters in consideration for JGP would at least likely get some kind of international assignment.
* which skater gets 1 and which gets 2 would depend on how they did at their first assignments, and in Angela's case, if she got an initial assignment in time to go to a 2nd.
Finally, the only lady who I really think is a complete lock for 2 events at this point is Christina Gao. Kiri with her stress fracture, Cesario with her URs, and Siraj being new to the scene all may not place as well as they hope and could end up with only 1 assignment, allowing some other girls to get a 2nd, but I think that those skaters are likely to get 2 assignments barring meltdowns.
I don't think you can base everything on national results pre JGP assignments ie. Agnes Zawadski was clearly the best Junior last year and did not get picked to go. It is clear USFS wants a skater to have made nationals. I think Gao, Baga, Cesario, Siraj, Jiang, are in a good position from their national results. I think Daniels impressive win at Broadmoor has put her in a good position for JGP with almost a 100 point free skate. It may very well come down to Liberty with Daniels, Wang and Jiang all competing there.
Last year some of the jgp girls got mediocre summer results but got sent to Jgp anyway.
Even though she doesn't have the most difficult jumps, I can't see the USFS overlooking Lindsay Davis for an initial JGP spot. She has a consistent 3L, and is the jr. bronze medalist. I doubt skaters like Cain, Kulgeyko and Gold would be given spots before her.
These are the scores from 2010 Nationals (they're not completely comparable because of the different # of elements in a novice/junior/senior program, but they help a bit):
Christina Gao [S5] -- 156.53
Yasmin Siraj [J2] -- 151.05
Lindsay Davis [J3] -- 133.97
Ashley Cain [N2] -- 133.95
Katarina Kulgeyko [N3] -- 133.48
Kiri Baga [J4] -- 127.35
Nina Jiang [J5] -- 126.38
Felicia Zhang [J6] -- 124.21
Gracie Gold [N4] -- 123.61
Angela Wang [J7] -- 123.53
Vanessa Lam [J8] -- 121.79
McKinzie Daniels [J9] -- 119.69
Samantha Cesario [S14] -- 119.20
Kristiene Gong [S16] -- 112.92
Ellie Kawamura [S21] -- 103.33
However many of the skaters on this list achieved better scores at spring internationals (Jr. Worlds, Gardena) or summer competitions so far this season:
Kiri Baga (Jr. Worlds 7th) -- 146.98
Samantha Cesario (Gardena 1st) -- 141.09
McKinzie Daniels (Broadmoor Open 1st) -- 148.79
Vanessa Lam (All Year Club Comp - 1st SR) -- 146.77
Angela Wang (Broadmoor Open 2nd) -- 132.38
Gracie Gold (Broadmoor Open 3rd) -- 131.77
*Felicia Zhang also scored 48.98 for her senior SP at the Chesapeake Open.
Also, while skaters like Gong and Kawamura were near the bottom of the senior results with fairly dismal scores last season, they shouldn't be counted out. As Sylvia mentioned previously, the USFS often chooses skaters who have competed senior at Nationals for the JGP because they have had more experience "under the bright lights," competing at the highest level, in front of more spectators, cameras, etc. Perhaps this is a way of "rewarding" them and, in some cases, giving them "another chance." This year will be even more interesting, and I'm anxious to see how both Kristiene and Ellie have improved under Frank Carroll's tutelage.
While we still have some major summer monitoring competitions to go, my best guess for the 7 initial JGP spots would be: Gao, Cesario, Siraj, Davis, Baga, and Cain, with skaters like Jiang, Daniels, Lam, Wang, Kulgeyko, Zhang and Gold being monitored for the final spot. If tradition holds, it will likely be Jiang nabbing the final initial spot.
Last edited by chipso1; 06-27-2010 at 09:12 PM.
Is Lindsay Davis age eligible?
Further, where skaters like Wang, Kulgeyko, Gold have more content than Davis, they may be more likely to earn a 2nd assignment than her so long as they get a 1st assignment in time.
Yeah, i think she's around 17. I don't doubt that she'll get an initial assignment; not sure if she will earn a second.
While the Russian wonder babies are spectacular now, who's to say they won't be hampered by growth this coming season? Davis is petite, but she's not twig-like and at 18 appears to be done growing. The same cannot be said for many of the Russian ladies, most of which are 13/14, quite slender and still no doubt growing. So while they may be able to rotate the more difficult triples at this point in time, I'm curious to see what will happen when they continue to grow and mature.
I also disagree that "5-6 of the entrants at the JGPF will be from Russia." While I think many of them are spectacular (especially Sotnikova), I don't see nearly all of them mowing down the rest of the competition. Gao, Baga, Fujisawa, Cesario, etc. are all more than capable of holding their own and medalling at (or winning) 2 events.
ETA: ^^I forgot Charbonneau! She is healthy (knock on wood) and seems to be more comfortable with the Lutz and flip. She'll be a factor, too.
To do some number crunching:
Davis scored 133.97 at Nationals and 128.24 at the Gardena Spring trophy, both as a Junior. This is where she would have finished in the JGP with those scores, respectively:
Of course, there are the obvious caveats that scoring across events are not comparable; nationals scoring tends to be inflated and B-events tend to have comparably higher scores than JGP, GP and ISU championships. But overall: good results, if not spectacular. 126-130 seem to be the minimum you had to score to get on a JGP event podium; and Lindsey could potentially score that if she has a good skate.
However, I personally think that the field this year is a bit stronger than the one last year. I think of them like this:
Strong JGP veterans coming back for a another year: Shelepen, Ovcharova, Agafonova, Biryukova, Gao, Baga, Fujisawa, Nishino and Charbonneau, to name a few.
Up and comers with a lot of hype, i.e. Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Haejin Kim, Karen Kemanai, etc.
US skaters that either outscored Davis nationally or scored similarly as novices: Cesario, Siraj, Cain & Kulgeyko.
and then there are young skaters who did respectably, if unspectacularly last year, who could make a big step and score better this year, like Roza Sheveleva, Sila Saygi, Shira Willner and so on. Also skaters like Ayumi Goto or Shion Kokobun who scored high at Japanese Nationals and Golden Spin, but didn't get a chance to skate in the JGP last year due to limited amount of spots.
I think Lindsey just doesn't have as high scoring potential as some of the other girls - she only has the jumps through the 3Lo, and there's nothing really outstanding about the rest of her skating. At 18, it gets less likely that she could get the harder jumps down. If she puts down two good skates, she could place well, but there are a lot of other skaters who could hypothetically score a lot of higher. She obviously deserves an initial assignment based on her Nationals finish and US seleciton policy.
But of course, what is on paper and what actually happens in competition, especially with junior skaters is always very different.