Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, Jan 8, 2013.
Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim should be able to easily qualify two Olympic spots.
Agreed. Barring some unforseen disaster (as mentioned above).
Even though it's not the most reliable resource, let's just look at what other pairs have scored so far this season at the larger ISU competitions.
Here's the pair's ISU Judging System - Season Bests Total Scores 2012/2013
*I've grayed out those who are injured or not the in the highest 3 / 2 / 1 spot for their country, relative to how many spots each country has. Might have made a mistake in there in doing so - so just point it out and I'll correct.
*Who is Germany's second team that will compete? Van Cleave & Partner? Editted to add: Ioana mentioned below Hausch/Wende "(157 for a PB, as far as I could tell)".
*Japan also has two spots, but with the Takahashi/Tran split I assume they won't send any. Correct?
*Editted to add: As Sylvia points out below, Kemp/King (GBR) are not on the list but scheduled to skate at Europeans. Sylvia also mentioned, "Also, it's still unknown whether or not Sui/Han will return later this season."
Regardless, this gives us an idea that it realistically really, really, shouldn't be difficult for Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim to place accordingly to secure our two U.S. Olympic spots. (Barring some serious disaster).
Hausch/Wende (157 for a PB, as far as I could tell) are also in the mix for Germany and could go to Worlds depending on their Euros performance. I still agree the US should be able to keep 2 spots for next year. C/S and I hope they skate accordingly the rest of the season.
Correct, Japan has no other pair teams at the moment.
3 teams without SB scores this season that are scheduled to compete at Euros:
Maylin HAUSCH / Daniel WENDE GER - ETA that H/W withdrew from Euros today
Mari VARTMANN / Aaron VAN CLEAVE GER
Stacey KEMP / David KING GBR
Also, it's still unknown whether or not Sui/Han will return later this season.
To be fair, I believe museskater was referring to the fact that the top 3 pairs at 2012 US Nationals were not competing at this year's Nationals and wasn't aware of C/S and S/K's solid international results so far this season. I had assumed that D/C had already officially WD from Nationals (they weren't listed in the original Nationals practice groups document that was published online in late Dec./early Jan.), but their WD was and is being treated like new news (by the Associated Press, etc.).
I'm sad that Y/R had to withdraw from Nationals. But for C/S and D/S etc. if these other pairs don't step up and perform their best at Nationals they have no excuses, The opportunity is there to shine a year before the Olympics.
Have Caitlin and Rockne ever tried out? I'm sure its been discussed at some point here. Or is this Y/R pairing pretty solid/legit?
I think she might be too big for him at 5ft2 or 5ft3. Rockne's 5ft9, so while this could work, it will take some doing with the lifts.
There are actually a number of plausible scenarios in which the USA could qualify a single team for the Olympics but still earn two spots for for worlds. Remember that only the first sixteen slots are assigned to countries through the previous world championships.
Here's an example of a result that would leave the USA out of an Oly berth:
1. V/T RUS
2. S/S GER
3. P/T CHN
4. B/L RUS
5. D/R CAN
6. K/S RUS
7. MT/M CAN
8. B/H ITA
9. J/C FRA
10. P/Z CHN
11. H/W GER
12. USA team 1
13. USA team 2
In this scenario, Russia, Germany, China, and Canada would each qualify 3 teams, with Italy and France each qualifying 2, for a total of 16, taking up all of the berths up for grabs at worlds. The USA could then qualify only one team through the Fall qualifying event. A slightly more plausible scenario would see an American team finish in 11th place ahead of Germany #2 (either H/W or V/VC). In that case, the USA would take only the 16th and last qualifying spot. Of course, it's all possible that Italy or France could wind up the odd country out, or that Canada or China might fail to qualify three teams, etc. But a top-12 finish won't actually guarantee team USA one spot at the Olys, let alone two.
That was an educational post - thanks, Jenifer! Maybe we should have a separate thread re. Pairs qualifying scenarios (by country) for the 2014 Olympics?
Have there been any updates on John? I know they're out of Nationals, but have they also rules out Worlds as well?
I don't think they have ruled out applying for a bye to Worlds.
And if they are healthy, it would be silly not to let them compete given their results.
Caitlin and Rockne used to train together (with different partners) in Colorado Springs. They are well aware of each other's size and capabilities. IMO Caitlin is much too big for Rockne. An ideal height difference would be 7-8" or more. Caitlin is close to 5'4" and Rockne is 5'9".
Using the ISU Communications for Torino and Vancouver and Wikipedia for the 1991, 1993, 1997, and 2001 WC results, there was never a situation where the total number of spots earned by countries earning 3 or 2 spots at the pre-Olympic Worlds was greater than the number of spots for the Olympics from pre-Olympic Worlds:
Pairs (16 spots):
2010: 14; 2006: 16*; 2002: 15; 1998: 15; 1994: 15; 1992: 12
*Next country down the list earned one spot.
Dance (19 spots):
2010: 14; 2006: 18; 2002: 18; 1998: 16; 1994: 17; 1992: 13
(Although it's mathematically possibly for there to be 27 28 qualifiers in singles if eleven countries had two skaters who, in combination, each earned two spots, and the gold and silver medalist were the lone entries for their country, it hasn't been close for the last six Olympics at least, as it has in Pairs and Dance, and I didn't look at details.)
Were the top US Pairs to under-perform, with neither beating P/Z or J/C (and P/T winning bronze), but were still to earn two, I suspect USFS, or any other country in the same position, would ask the ISU for an exception, since it would the first time earned spots would be split.
There are 10 young (ish) teams that are ready for the challenge this year at Nationals. I for one am excited for some new blood.
Anyone who has seen Caitlin this year should not be surprised by the withdrawal announcement.
I am certain Caydee and John will go to Worlds if he is able. (They have put in an official bye request)
What do you mean? I thought it was because of Josh's injury.
Offering my condolences here too, as well as over on the Pairs Thread. BUT, I actually think this is a blessing in disguise. It will give them more time to heal properly, *gell*, and perfect their programs for next season.
Pulling out of all competitions this year (including 2 Grand Prixs) all the way back to skate Detroit because of an injury to Josh? You can question me all you want, this team will never see the light of day.
Given the (un)reliability of your previous posts, it's not worth questioning you.
I'm just asking what you mean. Your previous statement was rather vague so I was asking for clarification.
Clarification isn't that poster's strong suit. Peppering subtle hints and then dropping the microphone and walking off stage is what we usually get. Take it or leave it, I guess.
If you have information, share it. All these vague hints based on supposed insider knowledge are pointless otherwise.
While I have no idea what's happening with Y/R, it is hardly unprecedented for skaters to miss extended periods of time and even full seasons due to various injuries.
My assumption is the poster is referring to the fact that Caitlin never really looked in competitive shape, nor did the team ever really get off the ground as far as looking strong contenders for this season domestically or internationally. Whether or not it is due to injury, I don't know, but judging from what little they put out this year they were never going to be in the medal hunt and were most likely not ready to compete at Nationals this year. Missing this year leaves little hope for Sochi, so I would be suprised if this team stayed together after this season. Perhaps they withdrew to avoid a poor showing moreso than an injury. I guess I am just not suprised by this withdrawl considering they didn't finish a competition this season.
Thanks carriemarie. That makes sense. A straightforward answer.
Where did Yankowskas/Reagan show this year? I doubt Denney/Coughlin would have looked all that great in a small, mall rink with a tree in the middle of the rink.
It's what the ignore feature is for.... LOL!
That was my point. They haven't put anything out really (although they did a SP at Detroit this summer, right?), so I personally wasn't shocked they withdrew. It's not a slam on the partnership. In theory it sounded really good, but the lack of competitive results led me to believe there was little chance they were ever going to show up at Nationals. They never got their programs out there and if they have been off the ice for a considerable amount of time for whatever reason it just not realistic to debut at Nationals for a brand new team. Injury, lack of training, the inability to gel, whatever. This has been a disappointing year for them. Perhaps they will focus on next year, but with the way US Pairs go I have a feeling they will break up. Regardless, best of luck to them.
I understand why they wouldn't be ready given their lack of preparation due to his injury, but when did people see the two of them perform to conclude that she's not in good shape? The only thing I saw was a YouTube video clip in the mall shot from way above. She didn't look particularly out-of-shape to me, but it wasn't much to go on.