Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated cleanly

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanlysacek, Apr 4, 2013.

Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated clean

  1. yes, especialy with a quad

    9.0%
  2. yes, but not without a quad

    5.7%
  3. no

    85.2%
  1. SkateFan66

    SkateFan66 Active Member

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    Lambiel's base value in the SP was 36.20 (2A, 4T+2T, 3F). Plushenko's base value in SP was 44.10. Lysacek's base value in the SP was 40.00. In the FS, Lambiel's base value was 75.91. Plushenko's base value was 75.03. Lysacek's base value was 74.93. Therefore, Lambiel's total base values were lower than Plushenko and Lysacek.
     
  2. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Lambiel's GOEs on spins and footwork would have made up the difference in TES. Lambiel also handily beat Lysacek and Plushenko in PCS despite being rather messy on a few jumps. He will mostly likely be way ahead of the rest with Takahashi.

    Don't forget Chan also had some rather impressive PCS despite mistakes in both programs.

    All of Lambiel, Takahashi and Chan are the kind of skaters that receive sky high PCS when they skate clean or close to clean. I have no doubt these would have been the top three in vancouver if clean, regardless of what Lysacek and Plushenko would bring.

    Oda had scoring potential on TES, but his PCS would always hold him down until he could skate confidently and error free without breaching the Zayak Rule or other COP rules. The totally empty programs didn't help, no matter how well he skated them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2013
  3. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    LOL, and you can guess what someone who knows better than any of us would have thought ?
    IMO, if clean, Lambiel and Takahashi should have been higher than both Lysacek and Plushenko. But I don't know what judges would have done !
     
  4. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, part of being Olympic champion is skating cleanly when the pressure is on, which Evan did. The other skaters had their chance to skate perfectly and they didn't.
     
  5. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    No probably 5th or 6th - behind Plush, Takahashi, Lambiel, Chan, and maybe Oda too.
     
  6. vodkashot

    vodkashot Active Member

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    Lysacek would likely be scraping the bottom half of the top 10 if everyone (literally everyone, including headcases like Abbott and Verner) skated cleanly.
     
  7. fsfan22

    fsfan22 Member

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    No kidding!

    I don't see the point on dwelling on past results and wondering 'what if?'

    You can argue that Plushenko would have won if some of his jumps were cleaner, but they weren't!

    You can argue that Irina Slutskaya or Maria B would have won 2000 Worlds (other thread) if some of their jumps were cleaner, but they weren't and the Kween won.

    Sorry for the rant ... must be the off-season withdrawals affecting me :rofl:
     
  8. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    People just like to play with hypos. People debate "what if" all the time in a multitude of subjects. Anyway, after years on this forum, I've just gotten used to it. I actually think COP makes it more "fun" because we have real numbers to play with.
     
  9. Fandango

    Fandango New Member

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    Hardly.
     
  10. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    a) Lambiel had a backloaded triple-triple
    b) His LP base value was higher than Chan's and Lysacek. And Plushenko. Takahashi beats him (if he doesn't have the downgrades, though). I think the
    c) The judges were willing to give him huge PCS
    d) If you believe in reputation judging, Lambiel's record was stronger than Takahashi's.
    e) I'm pretending that clean means "with a triple axel"
     
  11. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, but does clean for Lambiel mean good quality jumps too? Even jumps he lands are often iffy and not that strong. It could even be argued his performances in Vancouver were somewhat close to clean, just with alot of mediocre quality jumps, and he isnt really a strong jumper to begin with except for sometimes having good quads, and a quad triple flip-triple toe combo. I quite disagree with counting clean for him as doing the triple axel as it is pretty clear to me he was never planning to do any, but to each their own.
     
  12. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    One could make the argument that a clean Takahashi won't get that high of GOE for jumps. I think Lambiel's GOEs would be respectable because of what he did (shorter entrances/transitions into them, often musically on point).

    And yes, the triple axel thing is clearly wrong (especially since I'm not giving credit to Takahashi, for example, for his 4CC 2008 content).
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think Takahashi gets good GOE on his jumps compared to anyone in the 2010 field. He is getting dwarfed often by Hanyu and Chan (both overscored skaters in general) in that category these days, but compared to the 2010 guys he was just fine there. Lambiel I think struggles in that category even on a good day, JMO. I am a big fan of Lambiel btw, but just trying to be realistic.
     
  14. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    I think one of the things we really know regardless of meaningless hypotheticals, is that Evan was the favored U.S. skater going in, despite Abbott being the U.S. champion (and also Abbot is now forever the forgotten man since he faltered, despite having the two best choreographed programs that year on a par with Takahashi's great sp). If Abbott had skated cleanly, he could have made the podium -- I guess the lesson is do well, but don't peak at Nationals, especially in an Olympic season. And btw, whoever said that Dai would have won had he skated cleanly, remember Dai skated great in his sp, but was not given deserving marks, so truthfully even skating his lp cleanly, I doubt Dai was going to be on top of the podium.

    The other thing we know is that Johnny Weir despite skating cleanly was predetermined by his outspoken political incorrectness and rebel status to come in 6th as it obviously didn't matter that Stephane and Patrick skated poorly, since they were placed higher than Weir. So, we can say had Stephane and Patrick skated cleanly, they may have had better chances to place even better, and had Johnny made the mistakes Stephane and Patrick made, he would have been further low-balled.

    Evan has always been a hard-worker, but not necessarily more consistent than everyone, just perhaps more determined, and definitely fortunate in his coach and in his political backing. In any case, it is what it is, or whatever we wish it had been, but won't ever be except in an alternate universe. :p
     
  15. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion Weir got for his CoP-unfriendly programmes exactly the scores he deserved, because he is not a skater with the kind of reputation Plushenko has. And both Chan and Lambiel had better programmes.
     
  16. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Chan Did not have a better program than weir. It was more cop so smarter not better. Weir had a 4/4 layout with both triple axels is the first half. That was wrong. They tried to make up for it with the 3/3 in the second half but was not good enough. If you were doing all triples it had to be 3/5 layout with triple axel in the second half and lots and lots of moves for no reason with speed. That was the new ideal to the judges.
     
  17. The Accordion

    The Accordion Well-Known Member

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    Seeing it live - Weir also skated really tentatively and small.
     
  18. Seerek

    Seerek Well-Known Member

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    Interestingly, Evan ended up only tied for 3rd in Component scores in the Free Skate at 2010 Olympics, though 2nd in components in the short program.

    The discussions here are quite similar to discussions regarding Katarina Witt's 2 Olympic Gold medals, and whether others (Sumners, Thomas) would have won had they skated cleanly in all segments.
     
  19. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Except that Witt has actually proven she could win an event with virtually all her main competitors skating their best (87 Worlds).
     
  20. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I think Stephane had beautifully-choreographed programs, and Chan's were okay but not outstanding, IMHO. The fact that neither Chan nor Stephane skated with any excitement, passion or determination nullifies any program quality.

    Clearly, people's overarching dislike of Johnny Weir colors their view of his skating and his programs. Even as a Johnny fan, I agree he didn't have a shit-load of transitions and Galina unfortunately messed with his already excellent jump technique, but Johnny's above-average talent and artistry was still in evidence, plus his programs were not exactly sh*t either, and he skated cleanly. I don't care how "small and tentative" anyone perceives his skating to have been in Vancouver, Johnny overall skated better than Patrick and Stephane did in both programs, and that's a fact.

    Even the great Toller Cranston appreciated the skating of Johnny and Evan over that of Plushenko, as he indicated in a CBC interview post-Vancouver Olympics.

    ETA:
    Johnny definitely was not CoP-savvy, but neither was he a political favorite, and neither was he politically correct, and neither was he diplomatic in speaking to the media, and neither did he always make the best choices to advance his career. But that's Johnny! Nothing changes the fact that he was an above average figure skater with enviable talent and that he had a huge impact on men's figure skating, especially circa 2004 - 2008.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2013
  21. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    He was not a political favorite. Everyone else in us skating was promoting inmans email and promoting it and saying plushenko should be judged on he email but he was criticizing it saying it was wrong to be so intent on bashing European skaters and it made him a man without a country without a federation and no support!!
     
  22. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Ha, caseyedwards, you are apparently so quad-addled, you don't realize that nothing you said in your post #51 contradicts anything I said in my post #50.

    Fact of the matter is, Johnny has always been kind of an outsider, underdog who lacked full federation support, and probably he was born in the wrong country, and even in his own estimation he was born different and less "normal." I think he meant that at the same time he was being tongue-in-cheek. Johnny is nothing if not rebellious and in-your-face, because he made the decision never to back down from being teased and made fun of, and to always try to be true to himself. He's paid the price for being different and often errantly outspoken, and for not always being strong competitively, and for not always making the right career choices, and for lying as a rebellious teenager, and for being too honest for his own good. But frankly, his arc through the world of figure skating has helped relax a lot of hidebound and stringent attitudes toward male figure skaters fully expressing all aspects of who they are on the ice.

    I think it's the unique differences every skater has that ultimately make all the difference if they are fortunate enough to put everything together in important career-defining moments. Even if Johnny Weir never comes back in the way he hopes, he still has the magic of his 2004 Nationals and Worlds performances, and he still has the iconic and mesmerizing beauty of his 2004-2005 season programs, and his 2006 Olympic sp, and he still has the personal victory of his 2010 Vancouver programs, and the solid bronze medal win at Worlds in 2008. And Denis Ten will always have the magic and personal victory of his triumphant performances at 2013 Worlds.
     
  23. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    ^^^^ no I realized it!! I was agreeing with you! Reinforcing with my own words and opinion as to why he was not a favorite! If anyone was going to win with all triples weir was the best.
     
  24. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Based on how everyone skated in Vancouver these should have been the results:

    Gold- Takahashi. How he was scored was a joke. His short program should have been 5 points above Plushenko and Lysacek, and a huge ROTFL and WTF to losing PCS to Evan freaking Lysacek with a clean skate. As for his LP the quad miss was what it was, but the two lutz calls were total BS, and Evans second triple axel should have been downgraded, and Plushenkos PCS were a bit too high for that skate.

    Silver- Plushenko. Mostly by default since nobody else was that good. Not his best but he still did do all the jumps and the quads, and most of the other programs werent great either or were filled with mistakes.

    Bronze- Weir. Even if his programs lack transitions and COP friendly jump layouts, there are alot of other areas he should smoke Evan in (jump GOE, some of the spins, interpretation, skating skills, performance).

    4th- Lysacek

    5th- Kozuka. Undermarked for solid efforts.

    6th- Lambiel. Love him and his best would have deserved to (and probably won) over the field as they skated, even if not neccessarily over Takahashi et al also skating their best, but too many mistakes in both programs.

    7th- Chan. His marks were actually reasonable for once. Actually they always were until the summer of 2010 when the CSA huge cheque was probably manufactured for what they wanted to happen this quad.

    8th- Oda. Good short, dissapointing long skate.
     
  25. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Blimey, I believe those assessments are fairly spot-on JJ!

    Ain't it a shame that Dai was unfairly done by in the Vancouver sp, and that he wasn't being coached by Frank Carroll. ;) The bigger shame is the way Dai has been treated these past few years vs Chan -- there's at least 3 times when in head-to-head comps against Chan, Dai deserved the win, 2012 Worlds being the most notorious.


    Okay, caseyedwards, I apologize for mistaking your intent, but still surely even you admit you're quad-addled, or at the least quad-obsessed. :shuffle:


    As to Weir being the best to win with all triples, ITA that Weir was better overall as a technically well-rounded and artistic skater, than Evan, and even better than Plush artistically (but Plush had the jump difficulty and consistency and rep with judges and full federation backing). Also, Dai had fast-improved in terms of becoming a more well-rounded skater, partly from being inspired by Johnny, IMO. Stephane is and was a genius and a sublime skater, but he had problems with technical consistency, lack of motivation seemingly partly due to injuries, and 3-axel miscues. At the point of 2010 Olympics, Chan was a favorite but he was also dealing with a bit of muddled confidence, too much over-hype, his foot-in-mouth mistakes at 2009 Worlds, and he was in wannabe mode. He should thank Plushy for giving him the quad wake-up call (but the judges' gifts are probably for Chan personally a mixed-bag).

    In any case, Johnny gave it his all, but he couldn't overcome the :rolleyes: re his outspoken comments, his lack of political support, Galina's meddling with his jump technique, his lack of CoP-savvy program strategy, the ridiculous hullabaloo over his lacking transitions, and a certain strange hesitancy on some of his jumps apparently caused by Galina's meddling with his technique (even though his jumps were still good, they didn't have the amazing effortless quality and flow out on landings that he magically possessed circa 2004 - 2007 and that were somewhat still within his muscle memory in 2008).
     
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yes people dismiss Chan beating not only relative unknowns like Ten but even established and fabulous skaters like Tahahashi even with numerous falls and mistakes and when Takahahshi skates great, and dismiss it with talks of Chans quality. Yet Chan making 1 minor mistake is enough to lose to Evan freaking Lysacek at the 2009 Worlds, and Takahashi making only 1 real mistake is enough to lose badly by a huge margin to Evan Lysacek at the Olympics. So are we now supposed to believe the gap in quality Chan supposably has ahead of someone like Takahashi is more than the gap in quality Takahashi has over Evan or old Plushenko. Then even more unbelievable the gap in quality Chan supposably has over Takahashi is much more than the gap he has over Lysacek (aka mistakes aside according to judges Evan is still a way better skater than Takahashi who Chan cant afford to put a foot wrong against in Evans prime, while he can put his butt on the ice many times over if it is Daisuke, and Daisuke skating cleanly with a quad possibly cant even be scored over Evan without one, hahahaha). Too absurd to even dicipher into something that could be rationalized. I cant decide what has been worse the last 5 years in mens skating, the mostly worst ever overall level of skating, or the increasingly shameful and inexplicable judging of the event.
     
  27. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Its totally appropriate To believe the 1998 to 2006 Olympics and 1997 to 2007 worlds set a standard for jumps in men's programs that win gold and to go below that standard represents a major regression. 2008 to 2010 has the most controversial wins in terms of jumps. 1997 to 2007 and 2011 to present have quads in all gold medal performances sometimes multiple quads. So I don't think there's anything Wrong with pointing Out how things have changed and what lead to those changes.

    There is no disagreement on weir really.
     
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    So strange people thought 2008 was a low point, but in reality Buttles winning performance from 2008 have turned out to be by far the best and most inspiring gold medal performances in the years since (apart form Chans 2011 Worlds winning performances perhaps). Atleast Buttle at his best was a godly skater in everyway except his absence of the quad. Instead we go from quadless Buttle as World Champion with an artistic, pure skating, and quality masterpiece, to Evan Lysacek also without a quad and average generic skating in every sense of the World as World AND Olympic Champion. Oh Jeff why couldnt you have stayed in another 2 years and somehow mantained your consitsency from the 08 Worlds, blah. Then we go to Chan who has quads and basic skating, but also lacks true artistry and emotion, with jacked up out of the World crazy GOE and PCS all over the place, occasionaly skating great competitions to win, but mostly falling and stumbling all over the ice in rarely seen mistake strew programs even from bottom feeding skaters to title after title, including the last 2 World titles. Oh shame on us Jeff, we should have admired your great win so much more!
     
  29. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Actually, Jeff Buttle and Johnny Weir were superbly great in the sp in 2008, and nothing really separated them except Johnny's lack of political favor, particularly with his own federation. Of course Johnny was under increased pressure to medal in the fp and he had the opportunity to win, but was fortunate to skate with few enough mistakes to grab bronze. And Jeff was amazing in his determination and consistency, and his 3-axel command which was historically his major shortcoming. Worlds 2008 was Jeff Buttle's finest moment!


    In any case re Dai vs Chan, and your previous post, I mostly agree with your take JJ, but breathe and don't allow yourself to be consumed by the total injustice. It's also frankly an injustice to Chan. And I doubt that Dai has let it get to him that much.

    IMO, TPTB in skating have made innumerable errors in judgment, but nothing will be done about it, so skaters realize they will just have to soldier on, until perhaps incremental positive changes begin to happen, or until a complete overthrow happens.


    In terms of Dai, he was hurt by his injury, especially re his difficulty in getting the quad completely and commandingly back into his arsenal. It is amazing though how he has been such a determined fighter and under the circumstances how often he has been able to ace the quad or at least stand up on it. That's what makes the utter dismissal by the judges when Dai deserved to win all the more despicable. Dai's programs last year are iconic and will surely go down in skating history.

    To put Dai down because Chan has a reputation for the SS and the quads but didn't display either cohesively or cleanly in his 2012 Worlds programs is mind-boggling. Kind of reminds me how Todd Eldredge was completely dissed and dismissed when suddenly quads were in vogue. Todd could do them in practice but he simply didn't have enough time left in his career to master them; if he had, he would have. Todd was a great jumper.


    It is very ironic that Chan deserved to win at 2009 Worlds, but took silver in part because of his unnecessary trash-talking against Joubert when Lysacek (who missed out at Worlds the previous year due to injury) was the real (who woulda' thunk) threat in Los Angeles.

    Figure skating! I wish I could quit ya!


    BTW, caseyedwards, quads have caused hugely more trouble than that one extra revolution is actually worth, IMHO!
     
  30. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    While I always liked Johnny Weir for his elegant skating, I don't think he would have deserved any higher placement than 6th in Vancouver. Chan did fall on his second 3A but he had incredibly difficult transitions into most of his jumps, no stalking, no setup time, no rest moments, tons of speed and he really attacked his program. One of the best quadless Chans I've seen.

    But with a more severe penalty for falls, I suppose we could imagine Lambiel taking the bronze, Weir finishing 4th, Takahashi 5th and Chan 6th.