Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated cleanly

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanlysacek, Apr 4, 2013.

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Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated clean

  1. yes, especialy with a quad

    9.0%
  2. yes, but not without a quad

    5.7%
  3. no

    85.2%
  1. kwanlysacek

    kwanlysacek Member

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    I think Evan would have won the last Olympics even if everyone had skated cleanly. Who agrees with me. At the very least had he done a quad in both programs his short would be 100 points and his long 180 points and made him unbeatable even by all skating cleanly, but I think even his performances and scores were unbeatable for the others as they were.
  2. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    I think he would not have even made the podium.

    There was so much talent in that event, with Plushenko, Takahashi, Oda, Lambiel, Chan, Weir, Kozuka, Joubert and more. Had everyone skated cleanly, I think Evan may have ended up around 6th or 7th. The problem in 2010 was that pretty much everyone else blew it.
  3. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    I think the PCS that Lambiel and Takahashi received (especially in the LP) may indicate otherwise. I know Lambiel was at a disadvantage with having a flimsy 3Axel, but by "clean" are we going by the idea that he would have landed one in both the SP and LP?

    Lysaceck may have been the reigning World Champion and gotten a bit of a PCS boost, but I think that year, even Abbott may have overtaken him if he skated well.
  4. kwanlysacek

    kwanlysacek Member

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    Lambiel's career PBs are lower than Evan posted in Vancouver in both SP and LP by a large margin. About 7 points in both programs.

    Weir did skate cleanly and lost easily to Evan.

    Plushenko did skate cleanly with quads and still lost to Evan.

    Takahashi had only a fall which lost him 4 points and lost to Evan by 11, and that was even trying a quad when Evan didnt.

    Oda had a clean short and lost to Evan by 6 points in just the short.
  5. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't think so, as he didn't pop them into doubles. He never had any intention to do them to begin with. I still think he would've beaten Evan.
  6. kwanlysacek

    kwanlysacek Member

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    If Lambiel without a triple axel couldnt beat Evan without a quad, it only proves Evan is that much better as a quad is worth points than a triple axel. It shows had both skated cleanly with both the quad and triple axel, Lambiel would lose by even more.
  7. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps, but what I take from your question is how the results would have been had everyone skated PERFECTLY, or at least their very best. Plushenko was clean, but had some less than stellar elements. Evan beat him by just a hair and, unlike all the others, Evan never skated better programs in his life.

    With everyone skating their perfect programs, I believe Evan should've been beaten by Plush, Takahashi, Lambiel, Oda and Chan for sure, probably Joubert and Kozuka as well. Why? They are better quality skaters than Evan. (Plush probably wouldn't have won gold and may have even struggled to make the podium over Dai, Stephane and Nobu.)

    That's my answer to the question. Evan, at his best, has so-so skating skills and scratchy takeoffs and landings. While he worked his butt off (and it paid off for him), he never had the talent of the others and he is hardly a skating purist's dream.
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2013
  8. kwanlysacek

    kwanlysacek Member

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    It seems you are basing the placements on what YOU would have done with the scores, not on what the judges would do. The judges know more about figure skating than any of us, so what they would have done is what matters most, even if one of us disagrees. That is what my question is based on, what the judges would do. Nobu did a perfect short and skated 6 points behind Evan so it is obvious he has no chance. Stephane Lambiel has PBs way below Evan's Vancouver scores so it is obvious he has no chance too. Takahashi scored low even with only 1 mistake so it is prety obvious even he has no chance. The only ones that one could argue are Chan (his SP score was low for smaller mistakes so I doubt it), Plushenko, and maybe Joubert. Abbott's SP score for a clean short at rules already eliminates him too.
  9. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, most skaters would have probably scored higher than their PB if they all skated the best of their abilities. The judges in Vancouver were more generous with their scores. It just so happened that Lysaceck skated cleaner than the other men. You point about Oda is probably right though. I just think it's telling that in terms of PCS, Lambiel scored higher in both the SP and LP and Daisuke scored higher in PCS in the LP. Who knows if those would've been even higher had they skated better than they did. Couple that with getting the elements they missed and the GOEs, then you can make a claim that it is quite possible they would have overtaken Lysaceck.
  10. Fliple Trip

    Fliple Trip New Member

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  11. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    How did plushenko not skate cleanly? Give me a break! Obviously if takahashi skated cleanly he would have won.
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    His performances as they were would have lost to all of Plushenko, Lambiel, Takahashi, Chan, Abbott, and maybe Joubert had they skated cleanly.

    His performances with a quad-triple in both still would have lost to Lambiel, Takahashi, and maybe Abbott had they skated cleanly.

    Oda, Weir, and Kozuka who were mentioned in this thread would have never beaten him sorry. These clean hypotheticals are getting ridiculous anyway though as figure skating is a tough sport and skating cleanly isnt even the norm except in ice dancing, and under COP even that arguably not anymore either. Evan's career is a bit lucky I still think, but he deserves credit for being a super consistent skater in his prime, which is a rare thing in the very challenging sport of figure skating.
  13. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

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    Taka had a < fall and < on both of his triple Lutzs.
  14. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Takahasi's quad was worth 9.8 but with the ur he went down two 4 points and then with negative goe went down to 1 point and with the minus one deduction went down to nothing. So his 3+ rotations got him no points whatsoever. That was rightly changed! Quads are now worth 10.3! < is not as bad but << is.
  15. Prancer

    Prancer The "specialness" that is Staff Member

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    Let's say that you all conclude that no, Evan wouldn't have won if everyone had skated cleanly.

    Everyone still didn't skate cleanly and Evan still won.

    I never understand the purpose behind these threads. Not only are they purely speculative, they are purely speculative about something that already happened and can't be changed.
    numbers123 and (deleted member) like this.
  16. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Counterfactuals are fun?

    Probably....

    1. Lambiel
    2. Takahashi - wins base value, but loses GOES and slightly PCS to Lambiel
    3. Chan - if Chan has the rise he had in 2010/2011 with the quad, I think he would be pull it off. But presuming he doesn't, third for him
    4. Lysacek - dependable, but when everyone's this good.....
    5. Plushenko - he was basically clean in Vancouver.
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Lambiel not only didnt have the triple axel but he didnt even have quad-triple or triple-triple combinations. At the end of every jump he only did doubles. I am not sure but I would guess his base value was probably even lower than Evan`s or Chan`s who werent doing quads, but were doing everything else. I still think he would have beaten Evan but I highly doubt he is the winner if EVERYONE skates cleanly. Takahashi almost certainly is, Lambiel maybe silver at best.
  18. Eyre

    Eyre New Member

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    This is such a loooooooooooooooong stretch. Evan hadn't been able to put a quad in his competitions for over a year. He finally tried once to see his own luck at 2010 Nationals, but he failed. How could you assume that he could put a quad in both SP and LP? I can't imagine that. What a sweet dream though! But no, if everyone skated clean, Evan wouldn't have been on the podium.

    Had Brian Joubert skated clean at 2009 World, Evan wouldn't have won the world title either.
  19. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Lambiels base value was higher than chan lysacek plushenko.

    lambiel did 3F+3T
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2013
  20. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    Ah, how quickly we forget. Based on the fall comps before Olys, Oda was heavily favored to challenge Plush for the gold. He was landing 4-3s. Of course, he had a disastrous Olys and didn't even try a quad. But at his best, yes, he could have beaten Evan.
  21. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Oda did a clean short at the Olympics and got an 84.85, a so soish score which I thought was too low, and an indication of his pecking order with the judges (just as Weir`s SP score for his clean short also was). He would have needed a 173.5 range score in the long to beat Lysacek which was something like 13 points above his PB at that point (and the best he is capable without a quad is probably more like 160ish).

    I havent forgotten anything. Oda did do well in the fall, as he often does, but a bunch of skaters were either not even skating or not skating well yet at that point (Plushenko, Lambiel, Chan, Takahashi, Joubert), so the true guage of where he stood was a YTB sort of thing. I still did think he was one of the major contenders in a very open mens event before the Games, but he already all but wrote off his own chances to beat Evan by not even attempting a quad at the Games. Oda doesnt score highly enough in PCS to have a hope of beating Evan without a quad and he didnt plan or attempt one in either program, so based on that it wouldnt matter how he skated. Hypothetically had he done a quad-triple in both programs and skated perfectly maybe a chance, but I am not going to speculate that when he wasnt even willing to try one. To each their own.
  22. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    But that's my point. Had Oda done all of his content, I believe he would've beaten Evan. He beat him a number of times before Olys.

    All the stars aligned just right for Evan in Vancouver, good for him. But no way was he a favorite for gold going in.
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well he was the reigning World Champion so that atleast made him one of the favorites. I dont like Evan or his skating but I am trying to be fair to him. I will admit though the last 5 years have been the most disaesterous time in the history of mens skating in general though I will conede. An average skater (but great competitor) like Evan winning Worlds and Olympics. Chan sliding on his butt to 2 World titles in a row. Hopefully the dark age of mens skating are nearing an end, and better things are on the horizon. It reminds me of the time in womens skating when the horrendous Rosalynn Sumners won Worlds and nearly the Olympics, the all time low point of womens skating.
  24. Zokko!

    Zokko! Comansnala?

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    Is the earth a disc? :D
  25. Zokko!

    Zokko! Comansnala?

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    Amen to that!
  26. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Morozov was Oda's coach and he was smart with Oda not doing any quads and not attempting any in either program at any point of the season and then he wins 2 GP's and almost the GP FInal and Morozov strategy was working really well but then 84 in the SP for equal to Lysacek and Takahashi technical showed where he was!

    He was landing quads in practice but smart coaches were not allowing any quads to be done at all. They weren't dumb. THey didn't want to risk no points. Zero points was very possible.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2013
  27. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    My first thought was that Takahashi would have won if he skated clean, but then another poster reminded me of the fact that Takahashi lost to Evan by 11 points. So I have no idea. lol.
  28. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    clean for takahashi doesn't only mean making the quad go from no points to 9.8 but no UR on triple toe and then he already has 11 to win. He also got 2 exclamation points for edges which knocked off GOE.

    quad 9.8 from 0
    3F+3T 9 from 5
  29. reut

    reut Active Member

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    He had 3F+3T and he was the only one who had two quads in LP.
  30. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

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    Why are we having so many 'back in time' polls? :watch: Must be creeping boredom of the coming off-season! ;)
  31. SkateFan66

    SkateFan66 Active Member

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    Lambiel's base value in the SP was 36.20 (2A, 4T+2T, 3F). Plushenko's base value in SP was 44.10. Lysacek's base value in the SP was 40.00. In the FS, Lambiel's base value was 75.91. Plushenko's base value was 75.03. Lysacek's base value was 74.93. Therefore, Lambiel's total base values were lower than Plushenko and Lysacek.
  32. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Lambiel's GOEs on spins and footwork would have made up the difference in TES. Lambiel also handily beat Lysacek and Plushenko in PCS despite being rather messy on a few jumps. He will mostly likely be way ahead of the rest with Takahashi.

    Don't forget Chan also had some rather impressive PCS despite mistakes in both programs.

    All of Lambiel, Takahashi and Chan are the kind of skaters that receive sky high PCS when they skate clean or close to clean. I have no doubt these would have been the top three in vancouver if clean, regardless of what Lysacek and Plushenko would bring.

    Oda had scoring potential on TES, but his PCS would always hold him down until he could skate confidently and error free without breaching the Zayak Rule or other COP rules. The totally empty programs didn't help, no matter how well he skated them.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2013
  33. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    LOL, and you can guess what someone who knows better than any of us would have thought ?
    IMO, if clean, Lambiel and Takahashi should have been higher than both Lysacek and Plushenko. But I don't know what judges would have done !
  34. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, part of being Olympic champion is skating cleanly when the pressure is on, which Evan did. The other skaters had their chance to skate perfectly and they didn't.
  35. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    No probably 5th or 6th - behind Plush, Takahashi, Lambiel, Chan, and maybe Oda too.
  36. vodkashot

    vodkashot New Member

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    Lysacek would likely be scraping the bottom half of the top 10 if everyone (literally everyone, including headcases like Abbott and Verner) skated cleanly.
  37. fsfan22

    fsfan22 New Member

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    No kidding!

    I don't see the point on dwelling on past results and wondering 'what if?'

    You can argue that Plushenko would have won if some of his jumps were cleaner, but they weren't!

    You can argue that Irina Slutskaya or Maria B would have won 2000 Worlds (other thread) if some of their jumps were cleaner, but they weren't and the Kween won.

    Sorry for the rant ... must be the off-season withdrawals affecting me :rofl:
  38. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    People just like to play with hypos. People debate "what if" all the time in a multitude of subjects. Anyway, after years on this forum, I've just gotten used to it. I actually think COP makes it more "fun" because we have real numbers to play with.
  39. Fandango

    Fandango New Member

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  40. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    a) Lambiel had a backloaded triple-triple
    b) His LP base value was higher than Chan's and Lysacek. And Plushenko. Takahashi beats him (if he doesn't have the downgrades, though). I think the
    c) The judges were willing to give him huge PCS
    d) If you believe in reputation judging, Lambiel's record was stronger than Takahashi's.
    e) I'm pretending that clean means "with a triple axel"