Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by longingfornia, Nov 14, 2011.
i think Miki would have won this thing again.
If Leonova can come in 4th, I definitely think Shelepen could make top 6. I personally think there's a chance she could pull a Gatchinski and wind up on the podium considering how wide open the medals are this season and that the favorites all have histories of being inconsistent...
I don't want to jinx any of the ladies, particularly my faves, but here is my prediction (more like my wish)
(I am assuming that Miki will not compete, otherwise she would have been on the podium)
Miki would have been no lock for the podium, merely a contender for it. I expect several women to go over 200 points by Worlds, which Miki in her life has never done in competition. Miki is the flukiest and worst 2 time World winner ever, she just lucked into peaking in one of the worst years ever for ladies skating (2011) and another where the favorites all had untimely fluke like errors at the big event (2007).
I doubt Miki will even bother coming back either. The Russians will be age eligible for Worlds next year, Yu Na might be back, Mao should be fully back by then, and a couple of skaters should have gained confidence and momentum from their World medals this year. She seems like a smart women and surely knows going out with a fortunate 2nd World title is the perfect note to end things on.
For 2012 Worlds? Elizaveta won't be age-eligible until 2013.
ETA: Actually, I just checked her birthdate-and it appears Adelina Sotnikova won't be age eligible either-she doesn't turn 16 until July of next year.
Don't be mean.
2011, Four continents
I'm not sure we'll see the 200 point barrier broken as readily as you do.
I think the main challengers for the gold/podium will be:
Mao Asada (gold)
Akiko Suzuki (gold)
Carolina Kostner (gold)
Alissa Czisny (podium)
Mirai Nagasu (podium)
Kanako Murakami (podium)
Alena Leonova (podium)
Viktoria Helgesson (podium)
This is assuming the three Japanese skaters will be Mao, Akiko, and Kanako, and the two US skaters will be Alissa and Mirai, but Ashley could shake that up. I think it's more than likely Leonova, Helgesson and Kostner will not have their spots 'stolen' by another countryman.
I feel like I'm forgetting someone important, though. Imai crossed my mind but I don't think she's really podium material yet, and so did Phaneuf, but with the way she's been skating this season I don't think she is podium material either. OH - I know who it is, Korpi, but I think she's probably a long shot for a medal. Gedevanishvili too.
Hi, thank you for pointing out.
OK, my forecast now is:
I think Czisny is more a contender for gold this year than Murakami or Helgesson are for the podium. Murakami and Helgesson have done nothing that indicates they are podium threats this year.
personally i think it can be
the russian ladies depending on who they send.
miki ando if she goes
kanako if miki doesn't go.
not mirai why-she only fights for it when she wants to.
like in cc she attack in short,but she didn't attack in the long program
1. Carolina Kostner (land a 3f-3t, which she's been working on, in both programs! Maybe get the lutz back enough to land it once in the LP?)
2. Alissa Czisny (with a clean program and at least six triples)
3. Akiko Suzuki (with a clean program)
Realistically, I'd like any one of the three of them to win it. I'd love for them all to skate their best in both programs. I want Carolina to win so she can feel like she can retire, if she's ready. I've loved her speed, footwork, unique music selections, and choreography for a long time.
My prediction... ehrm... let's think positively!
Hopefully it will be:
I think there's a chance that these three women will medal as well. Obviously, Csizny has a great shot as well.
Dude, she's been INJURED!!! Do you expect her to totally obliterate her knee just so she can say she attempted the lutz and flip???
I expect Carolina will win it -- and oddly, this is the first season I'd be happy with her winning it. (I'm sure she'd be thrilled to hear it, right? ) I like her much better this season than ever before.
I'd like to see Akiko and Alissa take the other two podium spots, but Mao may have something to say about that. (Ideally, I'd LOVE to see Ashley take one, but I don't think she's there just yet.)
Whoever has the biggest skating, hopefully also with the 3/3 will win.
2 and 3. Alissa and Mao or Mao and Alissa.
Ashley Wagner will finish in the top 5. Kostner will choke and finish 3rd. A Japanese Skater will finish 2nd, maybe Akiko. Who knows with Alissa, either 1st or 4th or 6th or 11th. Throw a dart on that one. I luv Mao's long program this year. I hope that she skates well. Maybe Leonova will finish top 6 or 7.
2. don't know (could be US skater)
3. Akiko or
5. Alissa or 2.
8. Nagasu ? or European TBD
No way Flatt will make the World team. Splatt. Splatt. (but i luv her, really. just not her year for competition.)
I'd love these three on the podium too.
If Carolina Kostner wins the worlds with current jump layout, she will become the ladies champion with easiest series of jumps since Jill Trenary.
So much for 70% value for cheated triples pushing the technical difficulty higher.
There's only 2 spots for US ladies this year...
Some more things to think about -
After watching ladies at TEB, I think judges are appreciating Czisny more, and I believe she could challenge for Gold. Although, I still think the challengers will be Asada, Czisny, Kostner and Suzuki, it will be interesting to see what happens when Kostner's clean but less ambitious jump content is measured against Asada and Czisny, who are going for lutzes [and maybe a 3x on Asada's part] and who also score big in PCS. Furthermore, will ISU judges put 2 Japanese ladies on the podium if everyone skates well? ie - any 'trading' among National feds?
Of the top ladies, the biggest question mark will be Nagasu [if she makes top 2 at US Nats and goes to Worlds]. Will the happy free Mirai show up who can ? or will the intimidated Mirai show up?
I also want to see what is going on with Sr. ladies in Russia. They have 3 spots, but could it be Leonova, Biryukova, and Shelepen, and who will get the full backing of the Russian Fed? Whoever does, will probably make it to the final warm-up group.
Korpi usually gets the benefit of the judges even when she skates poorly. She could factor. Gedevanisvhili is looking the best that I can remember since '06. Will Phaneuf turn herself around with Orser?
I still think Carolina will add in the 3lutz, she has a beautiful lutz jump. Even she does not, she can do the other jumps in triples.
I don't recall Jill Trenary doing a 3toe/3toe combo and Caro's spins, speed and fw are better that Ms Trenary. So I would say she's a better skater.
Is Sofia B eligible?
I just can't see Czisny winning the whole thing.. I think she'll make like one mistake that'll take her out of contention for gold.
Maybe Murakami and Helgesson don't have the biggest chances to podium, but they have more chance than a lot of the OTHER skaters. Helgesson did medal at Skate Canada, and Murakami skated really well last season even though she hasn't been the same this season. She might be back in good form by Worlds.
I dont see Czisny winning gold at Worlds either. However she has more chance to win gold at Worlds than Murakami and Helgesson have to even win a bronze at Worlds this year. That I am sure of.
I agree that main contenders will be Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny. All of them are so very deserving ( and I want all four to medal so very badly... guess I'll be heartbroken for at least one of them)
Leonova and Nagasu ( provided they go to Worlds) have a decent chance at podium, as well- both peak later in the year and when "on" can be very effective ( in their own very different ways).
Shelepen can play a spoiler, but will have to jump her way to the podium. With the PCS that Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny get- and deserve!- they would need to have subpar performances to let Polina S. in.
Totally agree with that assessment.
Asada, Suziki, Czisny, Kostner- only contenders for gold and most likely medalists
Leonova, Nagasu- moderately good chance at a medal, but not gold contenders
Shelepen, Korpi (I added her)- very outside chance of a medal, maybe a bronze. I guess you could add Murakami to this group too.
Adding a 3Lz doesn't neccesarily mean that she will land it cleanly.
I compared Caro's current jump layout to that of Jill Trenary's, not other elements or components.
BTW, Jill Trenary had lots of great qualities that made her a world champion.
She certainly had impressive hair.
My new order
1 Carolina Kostner
2 Mao Asada
3 Akiko Suzuki
4 Alena Leonova
5 Alissa Czisny
My gut feeling:
I will be surprised if Nagasu ends up as high as 4th at Worlds this year. She isnt exactly building momentum right now. In fact it wouldnt surprise me at all if Wagner makes it over her this year (Czisny, Nagasu, and Wagner are the only ones who can make the U.S team this year IMO with Czisny almost a lock).
Then again many were predicting Nagasu not to make the team in 2010 and she ended up having a spectacular Olympics. You can never tell with her it seems.
^^Nagasu has been known to surprise on occasion. She wasn't building momentum heading into nationals in 2010 either and we all saw the back-to-back performances she put together. Mirai is a hot and cold skater which means you never know which one you're going to get until you get her.
If she gets out of her own way at nationals, she has a good shot at the title. I do think the judges will reserve a spot for Czisny on the team...unless she mega implodes in which case even they will have a hard time justifying her scores. I think Nagasu and Czisny are the best bet for a team. Czisny has the judges' respect which should help her even if she has a rough time. Mirai, even on a bad day, can still make the top 6 so I say send her.
I'd like to see Ashley go but she doesn't exactly have the pull with the judges yet. BUT if she outskates Mirai or Alissa, I'll be pretty upset if she gets left off of the team...she's worked really hard and, more than anyone, you can tell she wants it.
Carolina should try a 2z-3t combo. That would be totally respectable combined with two 2a and 5 more triples.
Not a lot of incentive to do this unless perhaps it's done in the 2nd half of the program. Anyways, she already has 2a-3t scheduled in the 2nd half.
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