Womens medalists at Sochi Olympics

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by butyrskafanatic, Jul 14, 2013.

?

3 Olympic medalists for women in Sochi

  1. Kim

    90.2%
  2. Kostner

    72.2%
  3. Wagner

    21.1%
  4. Asada

    50.4%
  5. Suzuki

    6.0%
  6. Gold

    12.0%
  7. Osmond

    3.8%
  8. Tuktamysheva

    6.8%
  9. Sotnikova

    12.0%
  10. Lipnitskaia

    3.8%
  11. Murakami

    3.0%
  12. Li

    5.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. butyrskafanatic

    butyrskafanatic Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2013
    Messages:
    198
    Who would be your picks for the 3 ladies medalists at the Sochi Olympics in any order. It is multiple choice so please pick 3 different ones.

    The womens poll was much easier than the mens are there are clearly only 12 with a chance, where for the men there were as many as 15 with a very slim chance at the bronze so I couldnt give everyone a category.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,602
    I will be shocked if Kim doesnt win gold and Kostner doesnt win silver. I know in theory Kim could get knocked to silver by an inspired Kostner or Asada, or Kostner could get knocked to 3rd or even 4th, or even have a total meltdown like Olympics past. However I just dont see it happening. I think the other medal will go to one of Wagner or Suzuki and not Asada actually, even if on paper Asada seems the favorite to complete the podium with some color of medal.
     
  3. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,128
    The big three: Kim, Asada and Kostner.
     
  4. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2012
    Messages:
    88
    Kim, Asada, Kostner. It's not set in stone, but it definitly looks the most likely to me now.

    Maybe that's a stupid question, but could someone enlighten me why so many people seem to see Kostner as the defintie second and surely above Asada?
    Yes, she won the silver over Asada at this years worlds - by 1,42 points. Not exactly much. If the technical panel would have called her 3T-3T in the SP as 3T-3T< (which it was), Asada might have already won the silver (I don't want to start a fan war over this specific reasult now - I'm fine win Kostner winning the silver over Asada, I just want to point out how close it was).
    What Asada did at 4CC would have handily beat what Kostner did at worlds - and even moreso what Kostner did at euros (and maybe GPF Mao would have been enough too).
    Then there's the thing with the back record those two ladies have - Kostner always had trouble skating at least close to clean and her past olympic experiences aren't anything to brag about. She's been better these last two seasons, but she fell in both SPs and LPs this season still, and the Olympics are usually worse when it comes to pressure. Asada has her fair share of bad events too, but in 2010 she proved that she can be far from good all season to come back and deliver exactly when it counts.
    I don't mean to say Asada has the upper hand over Kostner, but I'd rather say they're pretty tied by now.
     
  5. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    1. Kostner
    2. Kim
    3. Wagner

    Li'Kitsu, I think Asada's more prone to UR calls, Kostner will likely get higher PCS, and I believe she's closer to her peak than Asada is. The last time Mao beat Kostner was at Worlds 2010. Granted, it's only three competitions they've met at (Worlds 2011, 2012, 2013) so it doesn't mean much.
     
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,602
    I also think Kostner has the upper hand over Asada right now and has a better chance of both overall winning a medal of some color, or winning the silver. The only thing I would give Asada equal or better chance in is to upset Kim for the gold, as her insane difficulty and jump layout is what is probably needed to terminate a good Kim, and Kostner does not have that as while she has gotten back to doing very hard programs again her base value is still only the same or slightly below Kim's.
     
  7. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2012
    Messages:
    88
    It's true that Asada is prone to UR calls, but Kostner is prone to falls - how is that any better? There has been such a huge outcry over Chan winning with falls again at this worlds, I'd be suprised if the jugdes wouldn't penalize falls more severly at the Olympics, the biggest stage this sport has and probably the only stage where 'the public' aka non-fans are even taking notice.
    You're right about the PCS, but a decent skating Asada would very likely win in TES. And even a Kostner being closer to her peak is less likely to be "cleanish" than Asada is now - and she has gotten tremendously better again since the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, so even if she isn't at her peak, she's on an upward swing again.
     
  8. mustafinabars

    mustafinabars Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2012
    Messages:
    98
    Asada vs Kostner is a toss up but Kim is by far more likely to win. She would be the one to win even if all skated cleanly, and she is by far the most likely to skate cleanly or make less mistakes. So all around by far the most likely winner. Asada and Kostner have only a very outside shot of gold each at most, and maybe equal chances to each other at silver, while being in equal danger to the many challengers from behind of even falling off the podium.
     
  9. Jiazumi

    Jiazumi Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2011
    Messages:
    647
    1.Kim
    2.Asada
    3.Wagner
    :D
    With Murakami,Kostner, and Li following respectively.
     
  10. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,509
    If only :drama:
    I hope you are right.
    This podium would be as beautiful as the one from 2010 !
     
  11. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2007
    Messages:
    4,763
    Kim, Kostner, Wagner
     
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,602
    Are there actually any who dont think Kim will medal? I am surprised Kim, Davis & White, Virtue & Moir, and Volosozhar & Trankov dont have 100% votes. Since even if arguably none is a lock to win, I cant imagine any scenario those 4 skaters/teams dont medal.
     
  13. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    1. Falls are always better than UR calls under COP. At Worlds 2013, Carolina fell twice (once in each segment) with one downgrade. She beat Mao, who didn't fall but had three URs (both had one pop on the loop, with Mao's being slightly worse because of the mandatory -3)

    2. I don't agree that a decent skating Asada would likely win TES against a decent skating Kostner. Kostner would likely get higher TES due to better GOEs and a reasonable base value. Lets take a gander at 2013 Worlds again. Asada beat Kostner on TES by 4.62 in the LP. However, she had a massive 11.55 base value lead over Kostner. Kostner was able to make up nearly seven points thanks to GOE alone, and that's with a skate that had one triple-to-single pop and one downgrade with a fall.
     
  14. munow

    munow New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2013
    Messages:
    99
    Falls are not always better than URs. Falls and other good elements are better than URed jumps with flawed landings and other questionably executed elements under COP.
     
  15. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2012
    Messages:
    88
    Sorry, long post with a lot of numbers ahead:

    munow is right, an UR isn't flat out worse than a fall. Asada usually still lands her URed jumps on one foot and without any other mistakes, so her -GOE is relatively small: GPF: 3F< GOE -0,2; 2A-3T< -0.29 GOE; 4CC: 3F3Lo< -0.4; 2A3T< +0.07 GOE... that's really not a lot. If you take a 3T as an example, that's a lose of 30% of the BV (BV=4,1 so she loses 1,23) plus let's say -0.7 if all the jugdes give a -1. That's a loss of 1,93 Points. A 3F for example would be a loss of 2,29 Points.
    For a fall, you usually get all -3's and the -1 penalty additionally, so that's a loss of 3,1 Points. My main point though would still be that a fall (should) affect the PCS more than an UR call.
    Kostner had two falls, a pop and a DG, yes, but Asada had 3UR's, a Pop, a bad landing on the Axel, a 2Lo instead of 3Lo (no 3F3Lo because of the bad landing of the 3F, so she did a 3Lo2Lo), and she didn't get Lv4 on 4 out of 6 spins. And don't underestimate the spin levels, if Asada would have gotten her Lv 4's, she would have earned 1,6 points more (LSp3 to 4: +0,3; FCSp3 to 4: +0,4 twice; CCoSp3 to 4: +0,5 = +1,6 points in BV, without taking the higher +GOE into account). That alone would have been enough for silver, though barely.

    Huh? You just said yourself that Asada beat Kostner in the FS in TES, and both skated decently there (don't tell me Kostner didn't, because she usually skates like that).
    There's not much about agreeing or disagreeing here, you can simply count it: how much points did Asada lose? 3A: -2,14; 3F<: 1,2+1,59=2,79; 3Lo to 2Lo: 3,3; CCoSp3: 0,5; 2Lo<: 0,54+0,3=0,84; FCSP3: 0,4. So overall: 9,97 points. And Kostner? 1Lo: 4,59; 3S<<: 2,77+0,6=3,37 + -1 fall deduction. So overall: 8,96. That's actually about 1 points less.
    So they lost about an equal amount of points in TES, and Asada won with 4,62. How would that make you think, both ladies skating equally well, Kostner would win in TES? What's the matter with Asada's TES lead being all BV? It doesn't matter at all, higher TES is higher TES. And the difference is more than the PCS difference was (2,28).
     
  16. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2008
    Messages:
    1,234
    In my understanding of the scoring system, a fall clearly affects the PC mark by that the -1 point is deducted from the skater's TSS (TES + PCS). By contrast, there doesn't seem to be any such mandatory deduction from the total segment score for URs or popped jumps.
     
  17. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    1. Asada had a huge lead on Base Value

    2. Kostner was able to make up some of that lead due to her GOE.
    Asada base value: 62.30; Kostner base value: 50.75
    Asada TES: 65.96; Kostner TES: 61.34
    Asada GOE (TES - BV): 3.66. Kostner GOE: 10.69

    3. I believe that Asada might skate better in terms of maximizing her levels. I don't think she'll skate much better in terms of improving jump GOEs or URs. I believe that Kostner can skate better than she did at Worlds in terms of avoiding pops/DGs. Which is ultimately why I'm more comfortable predicting Kostner to beat Asada than the other way around.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2013
  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,602
    There are already reports Gold has significantly improved her artistry over the summer. If that is so and she puts it together, Kostner and Asada might have to skate close to clean to keep her off the Olympic podium.
     
  19. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,980
    Gracie still won't get the PCS scores that Kostner or Mao usually get no matter how much she has improved. If clean she can beat both Mao and Kostner on TES since both are prone to making errors on their jumps. I can see perhaps her making a run at a Bronze but it depends if indeed she has made improvements in her choreography and performance skills plus she will need some luck from the top girls making mistakes.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2013
  20. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,511
    Gold may be improving artistically but it will only mean higher PCS if she is firmly established as number one. Because Wagner will also get "she so amazing artistically and so improved with a 3/3" maybe so she has to establish herself as US number one which means GP wins or medals and then appearance in GPF and then of course win the US title. It was great for Lipinski to win the title in 1997 and then win worlds and Gold winning US title in 2014 would mean judges PCS will be better than against Wagner because Wagner may get US number 1 PCS.
     
  21. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    2,016
    Has Gold has actually improved or are people just saying that? Being that performance, presentation, artistry, interpretation, etc. are Gracie's weakest areas, that's the area people are most anxious to see improvement...is it a case of seeing something there b/c you want to see something there? Or has she actually improved? I remember the commentators going on and on about how artistic Irina became in the early 2000s but I never once saw it. It got to the point where I was pretty sure they were trying to convince themselves and the audience to see something that wasn't really there. With Gracie, I think I'll wait and judge for myself...

    That said I think Gracie has a shot at sneaking onto the podium but she'd have to turn in two flawless skates, particularly in the FS where she does her damage...most importantly, one of the Big Three will have to come up short. If everyone skates well the best Gracie can hope for is 4th...
     
  22. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,511
    You wont know until she starts skating at GP events but you give the example of Slutskaya. Lots never saw an improvement and in 2006 Bezic made the famous comment that she had no attempts at any artistry! But the artistic scores kept going up and up and because the more the coaches and skaters and lobbyists for the skaters say they improved it may create an impression of improvement where there has actually been none!
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2013
  23. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    2,016
    Exactly! :lol: And that's what I don't want to see b/c then I'll be forced to call "bullshit" on the group thinking thing.

    I don't think Gracie is a pwetty pwincess skater...it's not her style. She's not naturally graceful or expressive when she skates. She's a powerful skater, very similar to the way Irina was. I'd rather see them embrace that aspect of her skating and play to it rather than try to turn her into something she's not.

    We'll see what happens...
     
  24. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

    Joined:
    May 23, 2012
    Messages:
    460
    I just hope Kostner doesn't do what she did at the last 2 olympics.
     
  25. torren

    torren New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    132
    I hope Mao doesn't crash down desperately like at last olympic which was so sad to see, and can smile on top of the podium
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2013
  26. usova94gold

    usova94gold Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    107
    Mao skated great at the last Olympics. 3 clean triple axels, only 2 mistakes over both programs with huge difficulty, and she had NO chance of the gold even had she skated perfectly. So how can you say she crashed desperately or missed an opportunity. Neither is true.
     
  27. Jeschke

    Jeschke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    3,633
  28. NMURA

    NMURA Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Messages:
    404
    As for Mao Asada, I think her biggest problem is always motivation. It won't be a problem at the Olympic, which is supposed to be the culmination of her career. And it seems that she is usually in the best form in February. Therefore, I don't worry about Sochi. For the JSF, they should invest all available resources in Asada. Murakami or the 3rd skater have no chance of a medal anyway. At London worlds, their first priority was promoting Murakami to the #2 position. Such considerations are unnecessary at the Olympics. If Mao falters, one of Russians will pick up a medal, not an American.
     
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,980
    Not if Adelina or Liz skate like they did at Worlds. Ashley or Gracie if they make the Olympic team could sneak in for a Bronze medal if Mao stumbles.
     
  30. Sasha is DIVINE

    Sasha is DIVINE New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2002
    Messages:
    680
    Asada, Kim, Gold

    I think Mao will peak for the Olympics. She's been building towards this for 4 years.