Will Sotnikova and Tuktymasheva have the same impact on the Sr. level as Mao/YuNa?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Dec 12, 2010.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I was just perusing the scores that Sylvia posted in another thread and see how high they are for these 2 upcoming juniors, along with the natural jumping talent that they both possess, and the fact they belong to a powerful fed that can really promote the hell out of them.

    I wanted to know if any of you had an opinion as to whether they will enter the Senior ranks at the top in the way Mao and YuNa did 4 years ago? Or will they not for some reason, perhaps simply being a threat to the podium, but not necessarily a gold threat?
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think that depends alot on Mao and Yu Na Kim themselves. Mao and Yu Na came in at a good time. The old gaurd were all gone and the unimposing Meissner was World Champion. The field was ripe for a new world order and taking over by the young sensations, without any waiting or paying their dues behind any established stars. If the field stays like it has been so far this season then it would also be for the young Russians. If Yu Na comes back anywhere near her best and continues it, and Asada regains her form, it will be alot harder.
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Judging by how Kanako has become a threat her 1st season out, I'd say so. Kanako is nowhere near as good as Liza or Adelina and certainly wasn't last season. I think, especially if they go 1 and 2 at Junior Worlds, they will be a factor as soon as they move to the senior ranks (which I guess could be next season for GP only, or the season after for everything - it will be interesting to see if they take the Mao route and move to the senior GP next season or the Yuna route and stay on the Junior GP until they are old enough to compete at all senior events). This is all assuming puberty doesn't throw a wrench in their current abilities like it did with Mirai in the 08-09 season.
     
  4. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Most likely medal threats. Although I think Adelina will fare a little better than Liza at first. Liza still needs to become more consistent. I really can't wait for them to enter the senior circuit.
     
  5. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    I think a lot will depend on how they adjust to growth spurts, etc. Right now they're impressive, but that could change once their bodies start changing.
     
  6. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I hope they do! But like nomad said, growth spurts will play a factor. I'd also like to see them take on more challenging choreography. Aside from Sotnikova's flutz, both have generally good jump technique with a lot of height, so hopefully that will carry them through.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2010
  7. dundas

    dundas Banned Member

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    I doubt puberty monster will be very kind to them...
     
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to tell though. At age 14, Caroline Zhang and Kimmie Meissner were built a lot like Mao and Yuna at age 14, and then fast forward a few years and Meissner and Zhang couldn't have more different body types than Kim and Asada, and interestingly Meissner and Zhang both experienced a big fall from the top while Kim and Asada did not.
     
  9. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    With this jump technique both will be OK, I'm sure. Even if they'll struggle during growth spurts their jump will be back like it already happened to Sotnikova last season. She has grown a lot, fell 4 times at Junior Nationals and everyone worried about her 'cause she disappeared and didn't compete after that. But she came back strong and jumps even higher than before, her 3-3's and 2A-3T are amazing.
     
  10. pani

    pani Well-Known Member

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    I think all well depend from how this girls woll have a deal with heigh problems.
    Look, like Sotnikova grow up in last season on 13 cm and had problems with all jumps last season, but in this season her jumps look much better,
    I think Tuktymasheva is too small now, she will grow in future- this could be a reall problem.
    I think Shelepen could be on high level in Sochi, if she could save her jumps.
    And look, like Muracami could have a bright future too :)
     
  11. bek

    bek Guest

    It may be a problem but reports are both of her parents are quite small. Not to mention Elizaveta has really tremendous jump technique. Its hard to know for sure though.
     
  12. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Give these girls a chance to grow up a little then we'll see how good they really are. Just look at the american girls in juniors a few years ago they dominated everything including two straight sweeps at Worlds. Yet 3 years later and none of them have won any major senior titles and except for Mirai probably never will.
     
  13. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    To answer the original question -- most certainly. They are receiving scores as high as the seniors now. I believe their impact next year will be huge.
     
  14. bek

    bek Guest

    I think Adelina and Elizaveta are better than those American girls. I mean its hard to know, but both girls have much better jumps IMO than lets say Zhang, and better skating skills too.
     
  15. senorita

    senorita New Member

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    in an article some years ago it was written that when she was picked by Mishin team in a local event, they checked parents height, body type, and potential grown up height , they used to do it in my gymnastics team also
     
  16. bek

    bek Guest

    I think its worth mentioning to that Adelina and Elizaveta are competiting against a much deeper Junior field than I think the American girls were competiting in. This was one of the deepest junior fields in years IMO.
     
  17. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Mine too! They said my parents were borderline too tall and they are like 5'3" and 5'10" so not tall at all. I actually don't think it's that uncommon. Also Liza is very short and tiny now so I'd be surprised if she ever ended up that tall or big boned. It seems like a lot of skaters who are peanuts as young teenagers grow to be average height/size (Mirai, Caroline, Mao, Christina, etc) but none of them end up as amazons, not even by skating standards. For both girls future weight gain will potentially the bigger issue than growing too tall, but the way those girls train that shouldn't be much of a problem either.
     
  18. Seerek

    Seerek Well-Known Member

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    Any ideas as to whether the technical caller in senior competition (assuming a little more stricter) might affect their 3-3s being ratified (or not)?

    Also, I'm not sure if the judges will scale down their component scores relative to the other skaters once they move to senior..
     
  19. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, to be honest. I can't comment on Tuktamysheva's 3+3, but I rewatched Sotnikova's and it looked rotated for sure to me.
     
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Shelepen seems so tall and ungainly right now. If she can get a coach that can package her better, maybe she can use her height and long limbs to her advantage, become a Kostner type of skater,but she's currently lacking a lot of polish and her programs are quite messy, and it's just accentuated by her gangly body build.
     
  21. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    I think the three to watch headed into 2014 are Kanako, Liza and Adelina. So yes, I think they will move over well.

    Frankly, if anyone follows gymnastics, I always think of Liza/Adelina along with Viktoria Komova and Aliya Mustafina as Russia's return to dominance.
     
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  22. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    So far, Sotnikova is the one to beat. She has a natural ease and elegance to her skating and is packaged very well. Tuktymasheva in contrast is extremely poorly packaged and her Plushenko-esque style is so outdated.

    Still, there're 3 more years before Sochi so they have plenty of time to improve. They can't compete at senior Worlds until 2013 anyways, right?
     
  23. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Exactly. Sotnikova's jumps are very clean and are done withe excellent form. Let's hope the puberty monster is kind to her.

    She seems to be quite consistent this season, so hopefully she isn't that big of a head case.
     
  24. Kitty Hu

    Kitty Hu New Member

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    3 year is a too long time to say something about the girls . after torino, every one mao her self included thougt she will have the best chance to win in vancouver, but Yuna got it.
     
  25. orientalplane

    orientalplane Mad for mangelwurzels

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    :rolleyes: How do you know what Mao thought?
     
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  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    And let's not forget Kimmie Meissner and Caroline Zhang, also expected to be podium threats in 2010. Funny how that worked out...
     
  27. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Adelina and Liza are far more talented than these two though and have better technique. It's far too early to predict who's going to be the next OGM winner but I think it's very likely they will be in the running. I'm only really concerned about Liza's Mishin-style packaging but then it never detered Plushenko from reaching the top.
     
  28. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Random Adelina question: I can't help noticing that her birthday is July 1, 1996. This would have made her 13 in time for the 2009-10 JGP, no? And hadn't she just won the Russian Nats on the senior level? Was there ever an explanation given as to why they waited a year to send her out?
     
  29. falling_dance

    falling_dance Bravo, Patrick.

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    I wonder if that's a typo on her ISU bio; this one says that her birthday is actually July 11.
     
  30. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I never expected them to be podium threats. They already had all sorts of technical issues back in 2006/7, and that was pre-puberty for them. And technical issues are even harder to fix during or post-puberty.

    Mao and Yuna had, and these two young Russian girls have, a legitimate shot because they had/ have everything at a young age. The only variables were puberty.