Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 13, 2011.

?

Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 Gold Medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Poll closed Sep 13, 2011.
  1. Yes

    125 vote(s)
    82.2%
  2. No

    7 vote(s)
    4.6%
  3. Don't Know/Too early to tell?

    20 vote(s)
    13.2%
  1. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2011
    Messages:
    3,682
    Who, other than Oda or Gachinski, would have been awarded the bronze medal with better judging? No one, as far as I can tell.

    Kozuka beat Gachinski fair and square, and Dornbush (who didn't do any quadruple jumps) couldn't have beaten him without outscoring Chan on PCS.

    Březina (the fourth-place finisher) ran out of steam in the last portion of his LP and fell twice. Takahashi (fifth) was very generously marked given that he fell in the LP. Amodio (seventh) didn't do any quads and didn't have particularly distinguished programs. Joubert (eighth) had a sloppy SP and missed his combo.
     
  2. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    No, I'm not arguing over his bronze medal. I'm just saying his PCS could have been reduced to a where it should have been. He still would've had the bronze.
     
  3. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2011
    Messages:
    3,682
    Now you're talking! :)

    :COP:
     
  4. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2005
    Messages:
    7,952
    Very real possibility for gold in ladies and pairs, IMO. Oh...let's not forget the new "team" competition either. Russia will likely win that, as they'll have medals contenders in all 4 disciplines.
     
  5. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2007
    Messages:
    4,763
    Medals, yes. Gold medals, probably not.

    Shame, too. Russia (including the Soviet years) was as dominant in pairs and dance, as the USA was in singles for awhile.
     
  6. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,448
    Hard to tell, but Volosozhar and Trankov are so impressive I can think about them as the next Olympic champions (and I love Savchenko&Szolkowy !!!)
     
  7. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2010
    Messages:
    319
    I agree. They will at least win the team event. And I think they have a very good chance at winning pairs. V/T are already almost as good as S/S. It's too early to tell what will happen with the ladies.
     
  8. bek

    bek Guest

    I'm not really sure where your getting a probably not. The Russians have an extremely good chance at getting Pairs Gold in Sochi. The only team that compares with V/T is older than them, and not necessarily the best at handling the gold medal pressure. Perhaps the Chinese could contend but P/T are getting older and their are tons of puberty questions surrounding Sui/Han. And the Russians have a ton of young pairs teams.

    They also have an extremely good shot at ladies gold with their crop of talented young juniors.
     
  9. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,557
    Puberty questions are reserved solely for Sui/Han and can never be applied to the crop of Russian talented young juniors?:)
     
  10. a56

    a56 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2010
    Messages:
    232
    Hopefully, the ladies gold goes to Russia for the first time ever in history. They have a great shot at the pairs gold, and who knows about ice dance. I have hopes that Ilinykh and Katsalapov will somehow win the gold. You never know with the Olympics being two and a half years away and the judges choosing to dump or elevate dance teams with little prior warning.
     
  11. bek

    bek Guest

    Actually it was a typo to say Juniors because except for one Russia's pairs talent is in the Senior ranks. But most of Russia's young pairs teams are past puberty.
     
  12. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    What's happened to the Russian men? It's hard to see even a medal contender among them. If Artur Gachinski is their best (and I do like him), they are in trouble. Hopefully a few more will emerge in a year or two, but this is where I don't expect Russia to win a medal. BTW I don't expect Plushenko to be physically strong enough to compete by Sochi. I hope I am wrong.
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,466
    A 31 year old Plushenko would have very little chance of a medal, and Gachinski I agree isnt a good bet. Yet it is looking like those are their 2 best options which doesnt speak well to their chances.
     
  14. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,557
    Because there aren't since 2006. Lutai and Voronov gave a chance for hope, but...

    I guess there will be some in the coming years, since we've got some juniors who are quite talented, but they are definitely not for Sochi. Voronov will be back this season, Menshov, Gachinski - that is all we have right now, hope or no hope.
     
  15. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    I miss the golden era (pun is intended) of Petrenko (former USSR), Urmanov, Kulik, Yagudin, Plushenko. That's 5 in a row!
     
  16. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    10,111
    Other than Kulik and Yagudin, I wouldn't rematch any of the above men's Olympic performances. However, I would rematch some of their other ones (like Worlds).
     
  17. misskarne

    misskarne #ForzaJules #KeepFightingMichael

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,862
    I think Plushenko is strong enough mentally, and appears to be doing the work technically, to make it to Sochi.

    Whether his body lasts is another matter. I hope it does. I would sorely like to see him skate at Sochi. I think he would be on another level. The power of the mind is amazing.
     
  18. Kasey

    Kasey Loving on babies!

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2004
    Messages:
    12,027
    I think Plushenko would be on another level in Sochi if he makes it as well; unfortunately, not the elevated, celestial level that you seem to be thinking he'll master. He will be quite "figure skater old", he will have undergone multiple surgeries for injuries, and he will be up against a younger and possibly stronger generation. I could see Plushenko being the "still trying to hold on to glory Stojko" in his final Olympics, and that just wasn't a pretty sight.
     
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    The power of the mind is amazing, but I am afraid his body is not going to hold up till 2014. He is already having problems with his knees, back, and is having surgeries. He has been skating at the senior worlds level since age 15 (and winning medals!). He has already surpassed most figure skaters in longevity. I would love to see him back, but only if he is in good shape, and if it does not permanently damage his body because he could do show skating for many more years.
     
  20. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    I found these quads by Artur Gachinski in practice (flip, loop, lutz)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=Lle_MKUW9ac

    If he is able to land two of these in an LP in competition, it will be historic. Of course he will need to work on other aspects of this skating too, but I find it exciting when new jumps are added to the sport.
     
  21. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2002
    Messages:
    14,032
    That was my feeling about Plushy going into Vancouver. I was amazed that he skated as well as he did, and nearly won. It would be too much to ask for that lightning to strike twice.
     
  22. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,836
    I'm kind of hoping that Plushenko can bring back the triple axel half loop triple flip. It's worth the same as a quad toe triple toe, but it's just so much cooler.
     
  23. misskarne

    misskarne #ForzaJules #KeepFightingMichael

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,862
    I'd love to see him do it again too - that was amazing, that combination. I'd also like to see him do an Ina Bauer into 3A (Kulik-style) but that's mostly because I've never seen Plushy do an Ina Bauer.

    I hope he goes full-out with the 4T-3T-3Lo and I'll be interested to see if he keeps working on the 3A-4T combination. I definitely think he's more than capable of beating everyone else in the field...if his body holds out.
     
  24. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    Kulik was doing spread eagles (not Ina Bauer) into triple axel, as eligible.

    I too loved the 3A-0.5loop-3f combination. I don't think he can do the 4t-3t-3R combination now, but if he does the 4-3-2 even that will be amazing.
     
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,466
    The caliber of the mens event come 2014 will be much higher than 2010. One just has to compare the level Lysacek was skating at and able to win big events to the level Chan is skating at now to see the enormous difference.
     
  26. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2002
    Messages:
    14,032
    Agreed but then again Takahashi and Joubert in 2007 were skating at a much higher level than Lysacek in 2010. Even Buttle's quadless performance from 2008 would beat Lysacek because of the transitions, IMO. The level could drop back down again as it did leading up to 2010, for whatever reason. Still doesn't mean Plush medals, obviously.
     
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,466
    True, it was sad how mens skating went backwards so much leading into Vancouver. It is also probably a large part of the reason Plushenko returned at all, since he was already well below his former best due to his knee surgeries in Vancouver.

    Seeing Evan go on to win a surprise World and Olympic gold also makes me sad Jeff didnt continue. Then again Jeff was inconsistent so who knows if he would put it together to win or not, but a clean Jeff would always crush a clean Evan if both were quadless.
     
  28. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2004
    Messages:
    9,898
    But the flip looked force, because Plush was basically taking off from a standstill after the half loop. I would've given it 0 or -GOE if it was done under IJS. A jump sequence must have good flow in and out of its multipe connecting jumps. An excellent jump sequence was Ito and Browning's 2A-.5L-3S. A really bad example was Maria's 3T-.5L-3S.
     
  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    You are comparing 2A-0.5L-3S sequence with a 3A-0.5L-3f?

    Midori was a great jumper, but that sequence was not all that difficult. How many men have even attempted the 3A-0.5L-3f?
     
  30. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,817
    I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now. We don't know if Kozuka will develop, if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well), if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules. By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

    Evan won the 2009 worlds because Joubert made a tactical error during his LP. IMO both Joubert and Takahashi were contenders for the OGM, at least on paper. Also Abbott was skating very well. I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys. He almost did, but partly because Joubert had his Olympic meltdown, Takahashi fell on the quad while Lysacek wisely eliminated the quad from his programs, and IMO Oda was never as strong artistically as these skaters. Abbott skated poorly too, but on paper the field was pretty strong.