Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 13, 2011.

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Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 Gold Medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Poll closed Sep 13, 2011.
  1. Yes

    125 vote(s)
    82.2%
  2. No

    7 vote(s)
    4.6%
  3. Don't Know/Too early to tell?

    20 vote(s)
    13.2%
  1. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    I really don't want to discuss something that hasn't even happened yet. Sure, Tuk and Sot has done some nice jumps at the junior ranks, but we all know that little girls can spin like a top in the air and stuff done as jr ladies doesn't necessarily transfer to senior ranks.

    BTW, Kim was capable of superb triple loops when she was a junior. She was doing magnificent triple loops during 07-08 season until she injured her hips. According to your logic, her jumps were THE cleanest in the world back then but not so clean during the Olys season. Does that really make sense to you? ;)

    Sometimes shits like injuries and growth spurts do happen and may take away physical abilities or psychological forte to do certain jumps. I like Tuk a lot, but she will have to display strong jumps consistently for considerable amount of time for me to be acknowledge her jumps as THE cleanest in the World.
  2. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I agree with you. I dislike Plushenko's skating. But nobody can deny his jumping abilities. I think Chan is the favorite right now, too. But a lot can happen in 2.5 years...injury, decline, etc. So I think it's too early to be too sure about anyone.
  3. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

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    I think Russia has a great chance of taking Gold in each of the 4 events with just under 3 years still to go. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have an excellent chance in the ladies. In the mens, Gachinski had a superb debut season finishing 3rd at the 2011 Worlds. He only turned 18 yesterday (belated happy birthday wishes!!) and he will improve a lot over the next 3 years. Plushenko may also come back. In the pairs, Volosozhar and Trankov had a fantastic debut season as a pairing winning Silver at the 2011 Worlds - just 6.12 behind S & S. They will improve a lot. In Ice Dance (probably Russia's weakest event at present), I think Ilinykh and Katsalapov will also improve a lot on their debut season in seniors, especially now that they are being coached by Nikolai Morozov. The juries still out on whether they will improve sufficiently to take Gold, but I think they certainly have a chance of making the podium at the very least.
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2011
  4. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    ^ while it's probably possible, I think it's quite unlikely, unless all Russian skaters are at their best in Sochi and all the rest are not. For now I don't see anyone capable of defeating an in-form Chan and even if, it's not gonna be Gachinski.

    In dance the young Russians will have to go against top North American teams, likely including D/W, maybe even V/M and of course the Shibs and none of the teams is gonna go down without a fight. Of course I'm not saying they don't have a shot at gold, just saying it's not gonna be easy.

    I'd say V/T will be the favourites next to S/S and the form of a day is gonna decide who takes the gold.

    Russian wonderbabies may take the lead in the ladies event, but they may as well be attacked by the puberty monster inbetween and you never know what happens. If Mao doesn't put herself together i don't see a strong rival for them, but 3 years is a lot of time in the case of such young girls.

    I do believe Russia will win at least one gold, though. Seems they're getting back on track with all the new/young skaters/teams they support so strongly.
  5. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Ah, so it just seems you're being wise and avoiding meaningless speculation. Which is totally fair and correct.

    I do think Russia's well place to get at least one gold medal in Sochi. They're particularly well placed in pairs and ladies. Pairs because they've clearly got one of the top teams and the gap between the top and the rest is huge, whereas ladies just seems to be all over the place. They have a ways to go in mens and dance.
  6. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I honestly don't believe Plushenko will be a factor in Sochi- age and injuries being the main reasons. I am afraid that will make a lot of fsuers happy. I would love to see him in competitive form, but his body has taken too much beating already. I think Russia's mens field is the weakest among the 4 disciplines. About the ladies, I am optimistic and hopeful, but all these ladies are very young and untested. Hopefully they will grow up to be special. Russia's chances for a gold are the best in pairs. I don't see them winning ice dance if the current top 2 pairs are still around.
    Cornfed likes this.
  7. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I think that Liza does have a shot at winning at Sochi, but she would need multiple triple axels and a triple triple in both the SP and the FS.
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    After the 97 Worlds I fully expected Lipinski to win the 98 Olympics. After Nationals I slightly favored Kwan, but I still wasnt at all surprised when Tara won.
  9. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    This comment is stupid beyond belief, and most amusing is you actually seem to be serious. You are always good for a hundred laughs per post. :lol:
  10. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    So are you.
  11. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    You should be more original in your pointless, and, frankly, stupid attacks.

    You've already said that, Tonya.

    Instead of berating me for my "stupid" comments, why don't you refute them with a solid opinion backed by facts, rather the hide behind sarcasm and causticity?
  12. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

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    Well, I guess it's my time to agree with you now :)
    I think there are only two ways for him to get gold in Sochi:
    injuries and declines, as you mentioned;
    or a change of Plushenko's skating;

    If it turns out so that Plushenko will change totally the skating technique and combines it together with his jumps - then I would eat something uneatable here, I promise :)


    That is what I call optimism, actually :)
    Personally, I can talk about gold with more or less certainty only for the pairs.
    Men - well, Gachinsky was the third at the Worlds 2011, yes. But let's just see and compare the results with Worlds 2012, okay?
    My doubts about Plushenko I expressed above...
    Who's left? Menshov probably, but I am afraid he is rather old at the moment and will be older by 2014.

    Women - I'd rather see the Worlds 2013 before I can make any predictions. This is where it will be more clear who's the best - Liza, Adelina, Ksenia or Alyona, though a maximum of three women are admitted :p

    Ice Dance - I used to love I/K and used to be beaten for that:p Now I just like them, but everything may change. I am just not sure in Morozov, but from what I have heard from the test skates, their skating looks wonderful.
    However, the competition with D/W and V/M will be very tough. And I also hope B/S will be able to show their best. But, I don't believe in gold for Russia here. Rather bronze, but that may be easily claimed by P/B.
  13. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    But would you have thought of Lipinski after 1995 Worlds? I mean 2011 Worlds just happened and it will be another three years before the 2014 Olympics.
  14. IceIceBaby

    IceIceBaby New Member

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    I agree with you. Gachinski's bronze medal was a total gift from the judges because the competition was in Russia, imo. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the Russians will get at least a couple of medals in Sochi, no matter how they skated. :slinkaway
    Cornfed likes this.
  15. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    The gift was from Nobunari Oda, who gave up about 12 points by doing a 3A+3T combination (instead of a 3A+2T) after turning his planned opening 4T+3T into a 3T+3T. :wall:

    As for Gachinski, he simply rose to the occasion in his home country. Some skaters do, others don't.

    The other top men who finished behind him -- Březina, Takahashi, Amodio, and Joubert -- didn't deliver the goods.
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    Excellent points.
  17. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

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    I can't call myself Mishin's group fan at all, but, no, Artur's bronze medal was not completely the total gift. He skated at the Worlds much better than at Euros first of all, and although yes, in some things the Home Champs influenced the results, the second half was definitely his good work.

    Yeah. All that is left to say is that we will have all the medal sets in figure skating :D Time to close the thread as all the predictions are obvious.:D Just kidding :)

    Those couple of medals will be deserved, I think, if we talk about V/T and ladies/ice dance. All the other possible medals will be up to skaters I guess. Medal scandals are not the things authorities would like to get at the so much awaited Winter Games.
  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    After 95 Worlds? I wouldnt have known what to predict but I would have predicted an American winning the 98 Gold. I knew Bonaly would never hold on for 98 (I mean as a real contender, not just maybe being there). Chen I had my doubts about as well as she had been on the scene awhile already. I did not expect a Russian or German women to win Gold in Nagano, even though Slutskaya was a hot prospect at the time. It was already confirmed soon after Worlds that Baiul, Sato, and Kerrigan were not returning. So I would have said some American- Kwan, Bobek, or one of the top juniors at the time like Vogel or Lipinski. If someone looked into the crystal ball and said Lipinski it wouldnt have shocked me even after the 95 Worlds. I had no idea who would be the lead American by 98, but I felt pretty sure one of them would win it. As it turns out the Americans were completely dominant by 98.
  19. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Plushenko in 2010 did not even beat Lysacek (I thought maybe he should have but that is another story). Chan does everything better than Lysacek and has quads as well. Plushenko skating as he did in Vancouver would be looking up to a semi clean Chan by atleast 30 points. Kozuka's LP from the 2011 Worlds would have even crushed Plushenko and Lysacek from Vancouver.

    Your comments are rich too when the best you can do is to keep calling me Tonya in each thread. I guess you admire women of your own IQ however. :lol:
  20. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    I agree he rose to the occasion. He went out there and completed all the jumps and spins. But he was surely assisted by the judges. Those PCS were out of control. 8+ for interpretation, while someone like Dornbush is only mid 7s? One judge even gave him 8.75 for IN, but Kozuka only 8.25. Please.
  21. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Who, other than Oda or Gachinski, would have been awarded the bronze medal with better judging? No one, as far as I can tell.

    Kozuka beat Gachinski fair and square, and Dornbush (who didn't do any quadruple jumps) couldn't have beaten him without outscoring Chan on PCS.

    Březina (the fourth-place finisher) ran out of steam in the last portion of his LP and fell twice. Takahashi (fifth) was very generously marked given that he fell in the LP. Amodio (seventh) didn't do any quads and didn't have particularly distinguished programs. Joubert (eighth) had a sloppy SP and missed his combo.
  22. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    No, I'm not arguing over his bronze medal. I'm just saying his PCS could have been reduced to a where it should have been. He still would've had the bronze.
  23. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Now you're talking! :)

    :COP:
  24. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Very real possibility for gold in ladies and pairs, IMO. Oh...let's not forget the new "team" competition either. Russia will likely win that, as they'll have medals contenders in all 4 disciplines.
  25. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

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    Medals, yes. Gold medals, probably not.

    Shame, too. Russia (including the Soviet years) was as dominant in pairs and dance, as the USA was in singles for awhile.
  26. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Hard to tell, but Volosozhar and Trankov are so impressive I can think about them as the next Olympic champions (and I love Savchenko&Szolkowy !!!)
  27. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    I agree. They will at least win the team event. And I think they have a very good chance at winning pairs. V/T are already almost as good as S/S. It's too early to tell what will happen with the ladies.
  28. bek

    bek Guest

    I'm not really sure where your getting a probably not. The Russians have an extremely good chance at getting Pairs Gold in Sochi. The only team that compares with V/T is older than them, and not necessarily the best at handling the gold medal pressure. Perhaps the Chinese could contend but P/T are getting older and their are tons of puberty questions surrounding Sui/Han. And the Russians have a ton of young pairs teams.

    They also have an extremely good shot at ladies gold with their crop of talented young juniors.
  29. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

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    Puberty questions are reserved solely for Sui/Han and can never be applied to the crop of Russian talented young juniors?:)
  30. a56

    a56 New Member

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    Hopefully, the ladies gold goes to Russia for the first time ever in history. They have a great shot at the pairs gold, and who knows about ice dance. I have hopes that Ilinykh and Katsalapov will somehow win the gold. You never know with the Olympics being two and a half years away and the judges choosing to dump or elevate dance teams with little prior warning.
  31. bek

    bek Guest

    Actually it was a typo to say Juniors because except for one Russia's pairs talent is in the Senior ranks. But most of Russia's young pairs teams are past puberty.
  32. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    What's happened to the Russian men? It's hard to see even a medal contender among them. If Artur Gachinski is their best (and I do like him), they are in trouble. Hopefully a few more will emerge in a year or two, but this is where I don't expect Russia to win a medal. BTW I don't expect Plushenko to be physically strong enough to compete by Sochi. I hope I am wrong.
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    A 31 year old Plushenko would have very little chance of a medal, and Gachinski I agree isnt a good bet. Yet it is looking like those are their 2 best options which doesnt speak well to their chances.
  34. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

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    Because there aren't since 2006. Lutai and Voronov gave a chance for hope, but...

    I guess there will be some in the coming years, since we've got some juniors who are quite talented, but they are definitely not for Sochi. Voronov will be back this season, Menshov, Gachinski - that is all we have right now, hope or no hope.
  35. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I miss the golden era (pun is intended) of Petrenko (former USSR), Urmanov, Kulik, Yagudin, Plushenko. That's 5 in a row!
  36. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Other than Kulik and Yagudin, I wouldn't rematch any of the above men's Olympic performances. However, I would rematch some of their other ones (like Worlds).
  37. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    I think Plushenko is strong enough mentally, and appears to be doing the work technically, to make it to Sochi.

    Whether his body lasts is another matter. I hope it does. I would sorely like to see him skate at Sochi. I think he would be on another level. The power of the mind is amazing.
  38. Kasey

    Kasey Loving on babies!

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    I think Plushenko would be on another level in Sochi if he makes it as well; unfortunately, not the elevated, celestial level that you seem to be thinking he'll master. He will be quite "figure skater old", he will have undergone multiple surgeries for injuries, and he will be up against a younger and possibly stronger generation. I could see Plushenko being the "still trying to hold on to glory Stojko" in his final Olympics, and that just wasn't a pretty sight.
  39. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    The power of the mind is amazing, but I am afraid his body is not going to hold up till 2014. He is already having problems with his knees, back, and is having surgeries. He has been skating at the senior worlds level since age 15 (and winning medals!). He has already surpassed most figure skaters in longevity. I would love to see him back, but only if he is in good shape, and if it does not permanently damage his body because he could do show skating for many more years.
  40. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I found these quads by Artur Gachinski in practice (flip, loop, lutz)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=Lle_MKUW9ac

    If he is able to land two of these in an LP in competition, it will be historic. Of course he will need to work on other aspects of this skating too, but I find it exciting when new jumps are added to the sport.