Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 13, 2011.

?

Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 Gold Medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Poll closed Sep 13, 2011.
  1. Yes

    125 vote(s)
    82.2%
  2. No

    7 vote(s)
    4.6%
  3. Don't Know/Too early to tell?

    20 vote(s)
    13.2%
  1. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    This thread is about predictions, NOT certainties. If Plushenko is skating in 2014 and he skates like he did in Vancouver, yes, I do believe he has a shot at the gold. I don't "firmly" believe anything, though. It's two and a half years out. That's just you putting words in my mouth.
     
  2. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,004
    You would have to define cleanest technique first. Do you mean take-off edges? speed in and out of her jumps? or abilities to begin and finish rotations in the air?

    I saw Tuk skate at the Jr Worlds and was somewhat disappointed at her jumps. She seems to have correct take-off edges but her jumps were smaller than I had expected, and didn't have great flow on landings.

    It might have been her off day, but I certainly didn't see signs of THE cleanest technique. If you had said ONE OF cleanest techniques, I wouldn't have challenged your statement though.
     
  3. justAfsfan

    justAfsfan New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2010
    Messages:
    112
    I'm fine with any Russia's win except men or silver (if gold is locked for Chan!!!).

    As I cannot stand the fact that Artur Gachinski might get on podium just because he land all jumps regardless of how his program will be.
     
  4. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,549
    If he skates in Sochi like he did in Vancouver he has a shot at the bronze at the maximum under the best possible circumstances. I would give the gold to Chan in this case definitely.

    Plushenko's jumps are great, but since not long ago skating is not only about jumps;)
     
  5. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    431
    All of these actually. Liza has it all. She was nervious in the LP at JW and it was visible, her landings were a bit shaky, but when she's on her jumps are gorgeous. Look at her jumps in SP for example, great flow and speed, fully rotated, beautiful 3Lz-3T combo, tano 2A, and I especially liked her 3Lo landing. And she jumps really high considering how tiny she is.
    I really don't know which nowdays lady skater has cleaner technique. Kim? Her toe jumps are great, but edge jumps - not so much, and she didn't do 3Lo for a while now. Other ladies have problems with edges and/or rotation of their jumps
     
  6. babayaga

    babayaga Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2010
    Messages:
    434
    Of course I wasn't trying to say that "the gold in Sochi is almost hers" and I agree with the rest of what you say. Let me rephrase my statement a bit more carefully: given what I see from her today I think she could be a contender for gold in 2014 if everything goes well. She is not there yet but she has what it takes.
     
  7. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,004
    Please don't get me wrong. I love Tuk's jumps, and I have repeatedly said on this board that either her or Sot has great chance of winning the GPF.

    My problem is crowning her with title of having The Cleanest Technique. Don't you think it is a little premature since she has shown so little?

    As for which skater has the best technique, I can only determine by looking at who did the best in a given day.
     
  8. miki88

    miki88 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2009
    Messages:
    806
    Because I like Adelina's skating, I will not predict her to get the gold in Sochi, since we all know what tends to happen when we start crowning people four years in advance. But I'm unsure if Adelina really has the advantage over Liz in terms of jumps. Liz's jumps aren't as big but she does have better technique. I wonder if the judges will start scrutinizing Adelina's lutz more after she becomes a senior. It's borderline at least to me. Adelina has advantage over Liz in consistency and presentation at this point, but these things can change in the future.
     
  9. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    431
    You talk about an execution of the jumps on one given day or competition and I mean an overall quality of the jumps. Everything about Liza's jumps is just fine: entrances, air positions and landings. Maybe Yuna has better 3Lz-3T and Adelina has better 2A-3T combo, etc., but when it comes to the full set of triples Liza has an advantage because of her great basics, and I don't think it's premature to say she has the cleanest technique.
    Of course, having good technique itself doesn't guarantee her anything, there are still nerves, pressure, puberty... But she already has solid basics and don't have to worry about fixing her take-off edges or anything and other girls have to.
     
  10. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,116
    I really don't know about ladies, because anything could happen with the 'wonderbabies.'

    For the men, Gachinski could be a contender, but it's too early to say. I guess Plushenko would still have a chance if he comes back too, depending on how well he's skating. Something tells me Plushenko nor Gachinski will actually win the GOLD in Sochi, though.

    Volosozhar and Trankov are a strong possibility for gold in Sochi. I think it'll be them up against Savchenko and Szolkowy, although other teams could become a factor and Pang and Tong will probably be in the mix if they stick around.

    In ice dance it's hard to say. Ilinykh and Katsalapov are pretty good, but it's hard to picture them becoming a #1 team by 2014, especially if Davis and White are still competing.
     
  11. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,004
    I really don't want to discuss something that hasn't even happened yet. Sure, Tuk and Sot has done some nice jumps at the junior ranks, but we all know that little girls can spin like a top in the air and stuff done as jr ladies doesn't necessarily transfer to senior ranks.

    BTW, Kim was capable of superb triple loops when she was a junior. She was doing magnificent triple loops during 07-08 season until she injured her hips. According to your logic, her jumps were THE cleanest in the world back then but not so clean during the Olys season. Does that really make sense to you? ;)

    Sometimes shits like injuries and growth spurts do happen and may take away physical abilities or psychological forte to do certain jumps. I like Tuk a lot, but she will have to display strong jumps consistently for considerable amount of time for me to be acknowledge her jumps as THE cleanest in the World.
     
  12. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Oh, I agree with you. I dislike Plushenko's skating. But nobody can deny his jumping abilities. I think Chan is the favorite right now, too. But a lot can happen in 2.5 years...injury, decline, etc. So I think it's too early to be too sure about anyone.
     
  13. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    5,564
    I think Russia has a great chance of taking Gold in each of the 4 events with just under 3 years still to go. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have an excellent chance in the ladies. In the mens, Gachinski had a superb debut season finishing 3rd at the 2011 Worlds. He only turned 18 yesterday (belated happy birthday wishes!!) and he will improve a lot over the next 3 years. Plushenko may also come back. In the pairs, Volosozhar and Trankov had a fantastic debut season as a pairing winning Silver at the 2011 Worlds - just 6.12 behind S & S. They will improve a lot. In Ice Dance (probably Russia's weakest event at present), I think Ilinykh and Katsalapov will also improve a lot on their debut season in seniors, especially now that they are being coached by Nikolai Morozov. The juries still out on whether they will improve sufficiently to take Gold, but I think they certainly have a chance of making the podium at the very least.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2011
  14. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,124
    ^ while it's probably possible, I think it's quite unlikely, unless all Russian skaters are at their best in Sochi and all the rest are not. For now I don't see anyone capable of defeating an in-form Chan and even if, it's not gonna be Gachinski.

    In dance the young Russians will have to go against top North American teams, likely including D/W, maybe even V/M and of course the Shibs and none of the teams is gonna go down without a fight. Of course I'm not saying they don't have a shot at gold, just saying it's not gonna be easy.

    I'd say V/T will be the favourites next to S/S and the form of a day is gonna decide who takes the gold.

    Russian wonderbabies may take the lead in the ladies event, but they may as well be attacked by the puberty monster inbetween and you never know what happens. If Mao doesn't put herself together i don't see a strong rival for them, but 3 years is a lot of time in the case of such young girls.

    I do believe Russia will win at least one gold, though. Seems they're getting back on track with all the new/young skaters/teams they support so strongly.
     
  15. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    Ah, so it just seems you're being wise and avoiding meaningless speculation. Which is totally fair and correct.

    I do think Russia's well place to get at least one gold medal in Sochi. They're particularly well placed in pairs and ladies. Pairs because they've clearly got one of the top teams and the gap between the top and the rest is huge, whereas ladies just seems to be all over the place. They have a ways to go in mens and dance.
     
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,432
    I honestly don't believe Plushenko will be a factor in Sochi- age and injuries being the main reasons. I am afraid that will make a lot of fsuers happy. I would love to see him in competitive form, but his body has taken too much beating already. I think Russia's mens field is the weakest among the 4 disciplines. About the ladies, I am optimistic and hopeful, but all these ladies are very young and untested. Hopefully they will grow up to be special. Russia's chances for a gold are the best in pairs. I don't see them winning ice dance if the current top 2 pairs are still around.
     
    Cornfed likes this.
  17. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,830
    I think that Liza does have a shot at winning at Sochi, but she would need multiple triple axels and a triple triple in both the SP and the FS.
     
  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,357
    After the 97 Worlds I fully expected Lipinski to win the 98 Olympics. After Nationals I slightly favored Kwan, but I still wasnt at all surprised when Tara won.
     
  19. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,357
    This comment is stupid beyond belief, and most amusing is you actually seem to be serious. You are always good for a hundred laughs per post. :lol:
     
  20. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2009
    Messages:
    14,083
    So are you.
     
  21. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    You should be more original in your pointless, and, frankly, stupid attacks.

    You've already said that, Tonya.

    Instead of berating me for my "stupid" comments, why don't you refute them with a solid opinion backed by facts, rather the hide behind sarcasm and causticity?
     
  22. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,549
    Well, I guess it's my time to agree with you now :)
    I think there are only two ways for him to get gold in Sochi:
    injuries and declines, as you mentioned;
    or a change of Plushenko's skating;

    If it turns out so that Plushenko will change totally the skating technique and combines it together with his jumps - then I would eat something uneatable here, I promise :)


    That is what I call optimism, actually :)
    Personally, I can talk about gold with more or less certainty only for the pairs.
    Men - well, Gachinsky was the third at the Worlds 2011, yes. But let's just see and compare the results with Worlds 2012, okay?
    My doubts about Plushenko I expressed above...
    Who's left? Menshov probably, but I am afraid he is rather old at the moment and will be older by 2014.

    Women - I'd rather see the Worlds 2013 before I can make any predictions. This is where it will be more clear who's the best - Liza, Adelina, Ksenia or Alyona, though a maximum of three women are admitted :p

    Ice Dance - I used to love I/K and used to be beaten for that:p Now I just like them, but everything may change. I am just not sure in Morozov, but from what I have heard from the test skates, their skating looks wonderful.
    However, the competition with D/W and V/M will be very tough. And I also hope B/S will be able to show their best. But, I don't believe in gold for Russia here. Rather bronze, but that may be easily claimed by P/B.
     
  23. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    10,033
    But would you have thought of Lipinski after 1995 Worlds? I mean 2011 Worlds just happened and it will be another three years before the 2014 Olympics.
     
  24. IceIceBaby

    IceIceBaby New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    354
    I agree with you. Gachinski's bronze medal was a total gift from the judges because the competition was in Russia, imo. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the Russians will get at least a couple of medals in Sochi, no matter how they skated. :slinkaway
     
    Cornfed likes this.
  25. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2011
    Messages:
    3,629
    The gift was from Nobunari Oda, who gave up about 12 points by doing a 3A+3T combination (instead of a 3A+2T) after turning his planned opening 4T+3T into a 3T+3T. :wall:

    As for Gachinski, he simply rose to the occasion in his home country. Some skaters do, others don't.

    The other top men who finished behind him -- Březina, Takahashi, Amodio, and Joubert -- didn't deliver the goods.
     
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  26. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,432
    Excellent points.
     
  27. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,549
    I can't call myself Mishin's group fan at all, but, no, Artur's bronze medal was not completely the total gift. He skated at the Worlds much better than at Euros first of all, and although yes, in some things the Home Champs influenced the results, the second half was definitely his good work.

    Yeah. All that is left to say is that we will have all the medal sets in figure skating :D Time to close the thread as all the predictions are obvious.:D Just kidding :)

    Those couple of medals will be deserved, I think, if we talk about V/T and ladies/ice dance. All the other possible medals will be up to skaters I guess. Medal scandals are not the things authorities would like to get at the so much awaited Winter Games.
     
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,357
    After 95 Worlds? I wouldnt have known what to predict but I would have predicted an American winning the 98 Gold. I knew Bonaly would never hold on for 98 (I mean as a real contender, not just maybe being there). Chen I had my doubts about as well as she had been on the scene awhile already. I did not expect a Russian or German women to win Gold in Nagano, even though Slutskaya was a hot prospect at the time. It was already confirmed soon after Worlds that Baiul, Sato, and Kerrigan were not returning. So I would have said some American- Kwan, Bobek, or one of the top juniors at the time like Vogel or Lipinski. If someone looked into the crystal ball and said Lipinski it wouldnt have shocked me even after the 95 Worlds. I had no idea who would be the lead American by 98, but I felt pretty sure one of them would win it. As it turns out the Americans were completely dominant by 98.
     
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,357
    Plushenko in 2010 did not even beat Lysacek (I thought maybe he should have but that is another story). Chan does everything better than Lysacek and has quads as well. Plushenko skating as he did in Vancouver would be looking up to a semi clean Chan by atleast 30 points. Kozuka's LP from the 2011 Worlds would have even crushed Plushenko and Lysacek from Vancouver.

    Your comments are rich too when the best you can do is to keep calling me Tonya in each thread. I guess you admire women of your own IQ however. :lol:
     
  30. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    I agree he rose to the occasion. He went out there and completed all the jumps and spins. But he was surely assisted by the judges. Those PCS were out of control. 8+ for interpretation, while someone like Dornbush is only mid 7s? One judge even gave him 8.75 for IN, but Kozuka only 8.25. Please.