Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 13, 2011.

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Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 Gold Medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

Poll closed Sep 13, 2011.
  1. Yes

    125 vote(s)
    82.2%
  2. No

    7 vote(s)
    4.6%
  3. Don't Know/Too early to tell?

    20 vote(s)
    13.2%
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Member

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    The 2010 Olympics were a disaster for Russia compared to previous Olympics. They came away with just one silver and 1 bronze. From 1976 - 2006 (as the Soviet Union, the Unified Team, and Russia) they won at least 2 gold medals in each Olympics except 1984 when they won 1. From 1964 - 1972, they won 1 gold in each Olympics in an era when there were just 3 events with no Ice Dance. Hence, 2010 was there worst Olympics since 1960 when they came away with absolutely nothing (1960 was the Squaw Valley Olympics which were a triumph for the United States - winning 2 Gold and 2 bronze - at the height of its supremacy just before the tragedy of the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961). In essence, ever since the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961, Russia has dominated figure skating for the most part right up to 2006. At the 2010 Olympics, however, Asia and North America shared the spoils with 2 Gold Medals apiece (the United States and China topping the medal table with a Gold and a Silver each)

    Accordingly, with the Olympics coming up in Sochi in 2014, will Russia bounce back to take at least 1 Gold Medal?
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2011
  2. Amy03

    Amy03 Member

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    i think it's a little to early to talk about that but one thing is for sure they will face some tough competition..
     
  3. babayaga

    babayaga Active Member

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    I voted yes, it looks like at least V/T and Sotnikova will be contenders for gold.
     
  4. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    It's hard to tell who will win that gold, but I think it's a reasonable expectation that Russia will win at least one gold in Sochi. I am sure they are very motivated after the 2010 Olympics disaster, and will get the support from their govt.
     
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    They will win atleast one of pairs or womens, quite possibly both. They could be contenders for gold in the mens and dance by then, least likely the dance.
     
  6. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    This is rewriting history. The Soviet Union did dominate the pairs and dance disciplines throughout the 1960's, but it didn't even have a World medalist in singles until 1971. Russian (or, for that matter Ukrainian) domination of singles didn't really start until after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990's.

    You could look it up.
     
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Russia/USSR has never dominated in ladies singles. By 2014 they may have some strong contenders. Their main competition might be from Japan. I suspect by that time the USA ladies will be strong too.
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I dont see Japan being major contenders for the ladies in 2014. A 26 year old Ando wont be a contender by then, Asada sadly looks finished, and Murakami isnt really developing that well as a senior so far. If Japan is all Russia has to worry about for the ladies come 2014 then that is great news for them, give them the gold and silver now in that case.
     
  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGUaMHPaTHs

    Here is Adelina Sotnikova's SP & LP at the nationals. She has the jumps, spins, flexibility. I don't see the maturity yet, but she has over 2 years to develop that. How old is she now?
     
  10. sequinsgalore

    sequinsgalore Member

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    She is 15 years now - born one (1!) day too late to compete at this seasons Europeans and Worlds.

    __________________________________________________________
    visit the danish figure skating blog: www.sequinsgalore.blogspot.com
     
  11. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    I think it's too early to predict anything now. I just hope Russia learns that they need to train all the athletes in case something happens to their "stars" that they didn't anticipate. If shortly before Sochi they have a dq or an injury or illness; they need to have everyone prepared to step in, and whoever steps in needs to have the same training as the top athletes in the nation not just the leftovers.

    I also don't feel Canada was such a disaster as some think; some of those teams in particular hadn't been together for very long.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2011
  12. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Member

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    You will note that I said 'for the most part' (i.e. in general - they of course did not dominate each and every event. Instead, there dominance was in terms of medal numbers) - and the Olympic stats back that up:-

    1964 1 Gold (Joint 2nd in medal table behind Germany who had a Gold and a Silver. Canada also won two medals - both Bronze - and in some medal tables they finished joint 1st with Germany)
    1968 1 Gold, 1 Silver (Joint 1st in medal table with United States)
    1972 1 Gold, 2 Silver (1st in medal table)
    1976 2 Gold, 2 Silver (1st in medal table)
    1980 2 Gold, 1 Silver 1 Bronze (1st in medal table)
    1984 1 Gold, 1 Silver, 3 Bronze (1st in medal table)
    1988 2 Gold, 2 Silver, 1 Bronze (1st in medal table)
    1992 3 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze (1st in medal table)
    1994 3 Gold, 2 Silver (1st in medal table)
    1998 3 Gold, 2 Silver (1st in medal table)
    2002 2 Gold, 3 Silver (1st in medal table)
    2006 3 Gold, 1 Bronze (1st in medal table)

    Hence, from 1968 to 2006, they were first in the medal table at every Olympics. Now that's what I call dominance. Vash01 makes a valid point in that they have been weaker in the ladies - but my point was that for the most part in general in terms of medal numbers across the board (i.e. all 4 events), Russia had dominated figure skating for around 40 years until they came unstuck at the last Olympics.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2011
  13. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    If anything, V/T will grab gold in pairs.

    I'm a little perplexed by Sotnikova being anointed a gold medal contender. She's not THAT dominating. Her score at Jr. Worlds was only 13 pts. or so higher than an imperfect Zawadzki
     
  14. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Also, some of those smaller ladies still have some growing to do and that may hurt their future.
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Who do you expect to win gold in Sochi if not Sotnikova. Kim seems bored and not even wanting to compete anymore. Mao is a big question mark at this point. The Americans arent likely to produce the gold medalist.
     
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    IMO it's too early to crown V&T with an Olympic gold. They did well at this year's worlds and logic says they will get better. However, even one injury could slow down their progress. We don't know yet if they can handle the pressure of being the favorites (in case they reach that status/level). S&S are dominating pairs right now and barring injury they are likely to stay at that level or get even better. I would love to see a Russian pair win the gold in Sochi, because I have been a big fan of Russian pairs for years. However, I am only cautiously optimistic at this point.
     
  17. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Why do you think S/S will get better?

    I certainly don't see any team beside V/T or S/S winning in Sochi, though.
     
  18. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    Sotnikova wasn't perfect either, and it was Zawadzki's best competition in the whole season actually... To see how dominating Adelina is we should wait at least for Grand Prix and see her scores as a senior competing with seniors. Right now I would say the judges really like what they see.

    There are still Liza, you know. She has the cleanest jump technique in the World right now and is going to do 3A. I expect (and hope) a good rivalry between her and Adelina
     
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Because you cannot predict whether a skater/pair will stop growing or not. I am not even a S&S fan, but I am not going to say they will not get better. Anyone that continues to skate has a chance to.

    I would not crown either of these two pairs yet as Olympic champs because Sochi is more than 2 years away. Other pairs have the time to develop and challenge them.
     
  20. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Tough luck! Anyway, this may give her a chance to polish her presentation and challenge for a podium spot in 2013. That should place her in a good position for the 2014 Olys.
     
  21. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    I like Tuk a lot, but this statement just isn't true. She doesn't have THE cleanest jump technique in the world. I also doubt that she will ever have a consistent 3A.
     
  22. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Yup. Sotnikova/Tuktamisheva, Plushenko, or V/T. Possibly I/K but, they'll have a better chance in 2018.
     
  23. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I will say that the US dry spell has been going on for quite some time and can't last forever considering the deep talent here, both Jr. and Sr. I just have a hunch that at least one of them will be a gold medal challenger in a couple of years
     
  24. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    13 points is a large margin of victory IMO, and Adelina had a mistake in both of her programs at Junior Worlds, which wasn't her best competition of the season, unlike Agnes who made more mistakes at all her other events. Adelina won every competition she entered last season and only fell once! And this was as a 14 year old in the midst of puberty - she grew 5 centimeters over the course of the season and was still reeling off the money combos like they were doubles! If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.

    As for Liza, I don't think she will surpass Adelina, at least not any time soon. She has good technique, but her jumps are not very big even now and she does not look anywhere close to full grown. Also, she is not as consistent as Adelina, her 3-3 is often MIA and a lot of her good results last season were due to PCS she was lucky enough to receive for error ridden performances. If she is having such issues now, I fear for what happens when she finishes puberty. Yes, she has 3a, but she hasn't even done it in competition and when you are competing against someone who has no 3a but everything else, it won't make a difference - at least it didn't for Mao. Adelina is comparable to Yuna (jumps are as big if not bigger) but has potential to be even better because she points her toes and has a more balletic presence on the ice, something Yuna never had. Liza I think will fare more like Mao if she continues to be inconsistent and does not get her 3-3 down solid.

    I think Adelina will most likely win in Sochi barring injury or a severe growthspurt/body change, but where she grew 5 cm last season I tend to think that won't happen. Also, there are so many talented pairs in Russia that I could definitely see them winning that discipline too. And who knows, maybe I&K will finally skate up to their potential, if they do they could spoil for gold. In any event, I expect Russia to be a major factor at the 2014 games, regardless of if they end up winning any gold medals or not.
     
  25. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Pressure is a big factor in big competitions and particularly in the Olympics. We don't know yet if any of these young skaters has the ability to handle pressure. Yu na clearly has it, but she may not even be competing by then. It will be interesting to see if we see (once again, like in 2002) a lady with the least amount of pressure win the gold, or if we will see a tough as nails (like Yu na) lady win. She could be from any country.
     
  26. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Who do you expect to win gold in Nagano if not Kwan? Because it's too early to make predictions...that's why.

    At the end of the 08-09 season S/S were gold medal favorites and ended up winning the bronze and it had nothing to do with S/Z coming back, they just had a bad season. So you just never know what can happen.
     
  27. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    Then which lady skater has the cleanest technique in the World right now if not Liza?

    True. And after Mao's win at GPF 2005 I think pretty much everyone were sure they saw an Olympic champion 2010, but we all know what happened. The rivalry between Liza and Adelina reminds me a lot of Mao and Yuna. Right now Adelina is a clear winner, but it still can change
     
  28. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    It's nice to have that kind of rivalry in your own country. It makes both skaters stronger. Classic example: Yagudin and Plushenko.
     
  29. FarFarAway

    FarFarAway Choice is an illusion

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    What an interesting discussion, but somewhat rather suprising, actually.:rolleyes:

    What I really cannot still understand is why people think that Liza and Adelina will surely have a claim for gold by 2014. If someone explains me this idea, I will be just very much obliged. They are both very young, they will start on Euros and Worlds only the NEXT season due to age reasons and in this season they are able to participate only at the GP cups. So no one actually have seen them performing at the serious senior competitions so far, but everyone is sure the gold in Sochi is almost theirs. But they will be right in the middle of the growing up process by that time:rolleyes:No one knows yet how it will influence the jumps and all the other things in their skating.

    As for me, I believe we need to first see them at Euros and (hopefully) Worlds, but this will happen only in 2012-2013 season.

    I guess all the athletes are trained. What we really need is to crash that veni-vidi-vici stereotype.

    Plushenko again:rolleyes:
    We actually still don't know if he is going to have any starts this season and you still firmly believe he is one of the candidates for gold?

    For winning gold in Sochi he will need to have a lot of work to be done. The skating changed and changed greatly since he last skated. If he returns with the programs of the same type, he will surely secure himself a place in the top 15, but definitely not in the top 3.
     
  30. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    I guess I should have said trained 'equally'

    I'm hoping Stolbova/Klimov and Iliushechkina/Maisuradze are going getting the same attention as Volosozhar/Trankov and Kavaguti and Smirnov. So no matter who gets sent they are top form.