Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by centerstage01, Nov 13, 2012.
Chan scored 262 during CoR. Does anyone think a skater will ever score 300 or close to it?
Yes I think the two skaters who have a shot are Chan and Hanyu.
Chan has already. At Canadian Nats in January this year, he got 302.14 as his total score. But that was Canadian Nats, and the Chanflation season was open. It hasn't happened yet in a GP event, or 4CC, Worlds etc.
Canadian Nats doesnt count. I know it hasnt happened but he has a shot. Also believe that Hanyu does too.
Patrick Chan 2014 Olympics
I hope he will do it before !
I think it's going to be difficult for anyone to score 300 and above. One has to be perfect and brilliant in every element. Patrick's 302 score at Canadian Nationals is not recognised and anyway, scores at any Nationals tend to be higher. But for the future and beyond .. who knows. Maybe someday one brilliant and perfect skater may come by and break that 300 record.
Clearly I should get on with my work but instead killed some time working out the score Chan would get if he hit every element in both programmes as planned with all spins and steps up to level 4 with +3 GOE on everything, plus 10s in every PCS and the maximum score for the programme would be 319.53.
I think the likelihood of the judges giving him uniform 10s across the board is unlikely so he's already getting the highest PCS he's likely to get.
Then +3 GOE on everything....even V&T in pairs haven't managed to get +3s for their spectacular 3 twist, so the likehood of any skater getting even a majority of +3 GOEs is pretty slim.
I think a score of 300 would be nigh on impossible to get right now.
Did you remember to factor in second half bonuses in both programs?
I think it would be very difficult and would require a skater who's strong pretty much across the board (more than one quad would also help) giving a performance that is perfect or very near it and having a relatively friendly panel on hand. But it's not completely impossible, just unlikely.
Interestingly, I went and looked at old scores from when Worlds still had a QR, and the skaters were scoring less in three segments than some people are now. I dispute that this is entirely because skaters are now that much better or even that much savvier about the scoring system. There is also some scoring inflation in play, and if it continues in that direction, the 300 mark can be within reach for some.
Fortunately, I do not know where you work, otherwise I will dob you in!
319.53??... that's not a human score! But thanks for doing the sums. As you said to get uniform 10s and +3 GOE on everything is impossible.
Chan or a great Hanyu.
Plushenko in sochi
I think one thing to also consider is that inflation of element scores also will help (and deflation hurt, obviously). Additionally, I think the ISU wants those high scores (witness the push for tens during the Olympic season)
I did remember to include the second half bonus for both (only his 3Lz gets the bonus in the SP). The only thing I did was add the factor to the GOE on the lutz in the SP which I think was wrong; I think the second half bonus only applies to the base value of the element and not also the GOE so the total score could be reduced a fraction.
This is where having more than one type of quad would be helpful - even if the jump it replaces is a 3Lz (and in the LP it would likely replace something of lower value than that), that's still an extra 4.5 points in base value and higher GOE factoring besides. Of course, skaters with more than one quad are few (Reynolds, Fernandez, Hanyu and Joubert are the ones I can think of) and doing that many quads would be draining and probably make it more difficult to execute the program as well. But if anyone does get it right... it will be worth a massive amount of points.
I really don't know why Javier Fernandez isn't going for two quads in his SP, but I think if Hanyu can get his 4S consistent, he'll be doing that soon.
The scoring system keeps changing from season to season, with some jump elements being reviewed and given greater credit.
Apart from the fact that there are only seven elements, a short program from 2005 would score quite differently in 2013.
I think it is possible and I could see Chan doing it.
it would likely require PCS scores at least in the mid 9's for 300 overall to be within reach. We might see it in the Olympics.
The ladies' equivalent benchmark would be probably 240 (80% factor)
Chan should be able to break it even with just three quads in a competition. Chan has made a lot of mistakes at CoR. If he could maximize his technical content, and skate two perfect programs, with his ability on PCSs, he could even break 300 this season. However, the real question is, could he maximize his technical content this season?
Hanyu has the potential to break it too. But I don't think Hanyu could do it this season. His skating is still rough and needs a lot polish. Depend on how fast and how much he improves on his skating details, he may or may not break it next season.
Fernandez, even with four quads in a competition, cannot break it at least in a couple of years. But he sure is one of the challengers on this regard.
Only Chan deserves the 300 mark, JMO.
(or super-perfect Kozuka with 3 quads.)
It's Chan or Hanyu as they can do the big elements with GOE....and would be at an event like 4CC where you can let it all hang out with little pressure. And, not early in the season.
You'd need a clean skate with 9.4 or higher avg PCS and 4 clean quads at least short and long combined.
I think we'll see a number of skaters get into the 290s sometime soon but 300 may end up being elusive in the short term...
This makes me laugh. But I agree.
I adore kozuka's skating. His skating skill and speed makes me feel good. always..
Technically he is great except quad. And he can interpret music.
It's a shame he can't do quad more perfectly and consistently.
I love Kozuka's skating skills too. Breaking the 300 mark is hard for everyone IMO. I think among the Japanese man, Hanyu may be the best bet as he has excellent TES compared to his fellow Japanese skaters.
To dream the impossible dream ... To reach the unreachable star ...
Not to compare the two scoring systems, mind you, but even the unlikely reaching and breaking of 300 mark internationally wouldn't have nuthin' on the excitement of seeing one or two or a string of 6.0s in the kiss n' cry either at a Nationals or International event!
These magical performances and kiss ‘n cry reactions still bring a chill up my spine. Can’t say the same for the generally boring kiss ‘n cry reactions and frantic point-gathering on-ice moves (especially the slow eked-out spin revolutions) that quite often occur under IJS/CoP.
I don't think 300 is impossible dream and unreachable star. You are living in the past. But here people are talking about future.
Not to compare the two scoring systems, but lets compare my feelings about seeing high scores from the two scoring systems.