Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by rickmercer, Apr 11, 2014.
2006 Olympic SP is one piece of evidence.
You mean a win by 0.03 over Slutskaya when lucking out to skate last, with Kwan and Asada not even skating. Yeah that is foolproof evidence a clean Cohen is unbeatable, LOL! That would only prove if both Irina and Sasha skate their best in the LP that Irina would win for sure since she would have atleast one 3-3 in the LP at her best and Sasha wouldnt, and even in the short doing the same jumps they were tied. Shizuka coming within a point proves in the LP at her hypothetical best she would win over Sasha too considering she would have the tougher jumps in the LP if she were skating her best.
What about 2002 Worlds SP, 2003 Worlds qualifying round. Clean Sasha was placed only 3rd in both. Kwan had a mistake in both programs and even still took 1st. Elena freaking Sokolova has even beaten a clean Sasha Cohen more than once, Cup of Russia 2000 and Worlds qualifying round 2003. 2003, 2004, 2005 U.S nationals Kwan was given 6.0s which means even clean Sasha had no chance. 2005 worlds she had no chance to beat Irina, 2003 worlds she had no chance to beat Kwan. Doesnt sound unbeatable to me.
Worlds SP that she lost with the Robin Lake LP? Sasha Cohen won so many SPs in her career it's not even funny. Yet you insist she wasn't a thread for gold if clean. She just never put out a clean LP.
And to consider what she did win in her career even despite ever-so-flawed free skates, you can't be serious.
Kwan and Slutskaya have won many more short programs than Sasha in her career. Kwan has won 5 world or olympic short programs. Irina won the short program of 8 total world, olympic, or grand prix finals from 2000-2006, and was ahead of the eventual winner after the short of 3 others (2002 Olympics, 2000 worlds, 2006 olympics). Sasha only won the short program at her own Nationals three times, only twice when Kwan competed (once when she fell on a simple triple toe). So good for Sasha winning a few short programs, but even that doesnt put her ahead.
I didnt say she wasnt a gold contender if she went clean and others made mistakes, but she wasnt unbeatable if she went clean, like her ardent fans potray. Now Patrick Chan is and always was unbeatable if he went clean. And therein lies the difference to Cohen and why a thread comparing them is stupid to begin with.
Even had Sasha skated cleanly all the time the only events she would have won are the 2004 worlds (maybe), 2006 Olympics, and 2006 worlds, and the 2006 Olympics only due to others mistakes and the absences, and 2006 worlds in a joke of a field. She might still have only 1 U.S title.
Now had king Patrick skated cleanly all the time he would have won the 2009 worlds, 2010 Olympics, 2010 worlds, 2011 worlds, all 7 world and Olympic titles from 2009-2014 Olympics in fact. No comparision to Cohen who does not have his skill set.
And how is this relevant?
I would say there was a sweet spot in her career when the judges would have given it to her had she gone clean, it would have been that stunning. However, I do agree that this thread is stupid and Cohen cannot be compared with Chan. Chan could be unbeatable with just a few minor mistakes and Cohen never had that kind of cushion.
In 2004 a substandard Cohen got three ordinals in her FS from a clean Arakawa, clean for that time, since under-rotation calls were judge-dependent and rolled into the tech mark, as were flutzes and lips. The writing was already on the wall when they gave the SP to Cohen.
Cohen wasn't going to win in 2005: that was destined for Slutakaya in Moscow after her heroic comeback, as long as Slutskaya skated decently.
US Nationals judges might have been willing to go with Cohen one year, if she could have pulled off a clean FS, but, on the whole, international judges rewarded Cohen as much as Kwan in the last few years of Kwan's career.
It is relevant since I was responding to someone who said Sasha was unbeatable if she went clean. And there is nothing that shows this. Not her so called short program dominance which doesnt exist as Kwan and Slutskaya have won many more short programs in their career than she has. Winning an Olympic SP by 0.03 over someone who is capable of much harder jumper in the LP than you, and with Michelle Kwan not even competing, isnt proof of this, only that she is a threat if she goes clean which nobody was denying. Unbeatable, or cant be touched, umm no. That would be Chan.
That's strange. It looks to me as if you were responding to my post. And yes, there was a point of Sasha's career and quite a few competitions where all she had to do was to be clean to win.
I agree with this, but basically that just shows Sasha was only capable of winning a few more events had she been more consistent. She was never going to dominate or be a world beater. She just wasnt good enough. She wasnt a female Chan.
People say oh it is so amazing Sasha could be 2nd to 4th with 1 or 2 mistakes. Well Patrick can win events and even big events with 4 or 5 big mistakes and has many times, so what does that say about him and how the judges view him then. Just look at the 2013 worlds. Patrick outright missed over half the jumps in his long program, either falling, practically falling, popping and still stepping out of, etc...and still won gold over Denis Ten who skated two clean and beautiful programs, and also has great artistry, great skating skills, big jumps, and strong spins. Patrick is a god.
Wait, are you a Chan uber offended by the Cohen comparison? Is this what's happening?
I am a Chan fan, wouldnt say uber. Basically the only big events in Sasha's whole career she would have won had everyone hit and been at their best were 2004 worlds and 2006 worlds, and one of those had a field on par with the Nebelhorn trophy. She couldnt even win her own Nationals over a clean Kwan, other than 2006 and maybe 2005. How can you dominate the world scene with everyone hitting, when you cant even dominate in your own country.
How do you know she wouldn't have won over a clean Kwan, has she herself gone clean? Is there some kind of alternate universe where this actually happened? How can you say any of this with such certainty? We do know for certain, however, that a very flawed LP skater like Sasha had a very successful career. You can only say it would have been more successful had she been able to put out clean free skates, that's logical.
Well Kwan got 6.0s at the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 Nationals. This indicates even clean Cohen not winning. You dont beat someone who gets perfect 6.0s. I can only think of one time ever someone got 6.0s and lost and that was Kwan herself taking down perfect 6.0s Chen at the 96 worlds.
Plus Kwan was worshipped as some sort of goddess at Nationals so it was never really a fair fight. It would take someone who was way better than her to beat her (eg-maybe a female Chan skating cleanly). Someone who was just at the same sort of level or arguably a bit better like Cohen from 2002-2004 would not be able to do it just due to the enormous swell of love and support for the legend Kwan in the U.S. Even if internationally it would be close and Cohen possibly being able to win, Nationals was a different ball game between the two.
Just like facing Irina at worlds in Moscow in 2005 after her emotional comeback from illness that almost killed her wasnt ever a fair fight although the way Irina skated her LP there she deserved to win anyway.
If Kwan's 2005 Nationals SP is any indication, she certainly was still in the mix to win her 9th National title. That sort of performance was classic Kwan.
And you know that a clean Cohen wouldn't have gotten more 6.0? How?
Of course it is possible, it is just very rare to see a skater who gets multiple 6.0s losing. It doesnt happen hardly ever in the sport. Plus as I said Kwan was a huge emotional favorite at Nationals so it would be hard for someone who even at her level as a skater, which Kwan probably was from 2002-2005 (or atleast 2003 onwards) to beat her. You probably almost had to TKO Kwan. Just look at the perfect 6.0s Kwan even got for her boring and stripped down Bolero at the 2005 Nationals with the doubled 2nd triple lutz. She even looked peeved at the end, and said afterwords her skate kind of sucked, but she got 6.0s. There was a huge partiality to Kwan at Nationals by then that made it even harder to beat her than her excellent skating alone would have otherwise. It wasnt the same as facing Kwan outside the U.S or outside Nationals. The judges almost gave her a 5 metre head start in a 100 metre dash.
I love Michelle but I am not blind to the obvious that were a huge favortism to her in general at Nationals. She has something like 70 perfect 6.0s at Nationals and even as great as she is, she isnt the revolutionary of T&D from 82-84. Nobody in skating history in any discipline is. That is an unbelievable number, something she couldnt dream to get at worlds over her career, and kind of sums up the over the top Kwan lovefest that is Nationals. As it turns out she did deserve her 9 titles based on the performances given, but I could see her having won all 9 even if that possibly wasnt the case.
Patrick would be hands down the best mens skater ever today if he were totally consistent for the past 6 years. It is hard for anyone to compare to atleast his "potential" ability. Sasha also rates very highly in potential ability, aside from her consistency issues, just not as high as him.
If we had to compare Chan to Cohen, I would say Chan is all substance (in the blade and skating skills) and little style (although he's worked on it and actually puts forth effort). Cohen was a lot of style but her substance (in terms of blade work) could have been better (although I won't exaggerate and say she was totally deficient in that area).
Substance beats style. That is why he is dominant and she isnt.
Nope. Many skaters have earned perfect marks and lost. K/O - 1998 Olympics, L/A - 2002 Olympics, Brian Orser in 1988, Torvil and Dean in 1994 Olympics, Roz Sumners in 1984 Olympics, Petrenko 1994 Olympics, Candelaro 1998 Olympics. Those are just at the top of my head and only focusing on Olympics. I'm sure there are many more.
Michelle received a bunch of 6.0's for her 2004 LP at worlds and was 3rd.
Ah, yes. The joke competition where 6.0s were handed out like candy from a pez dispenser. Shen and Zhao and Pang & Tong got 6.0s but didn't win. Denkova/Staviski and Winkler & Lohse also got 6.0s and didn't win.
Sasha was the best skater in the world for almost her entire career from the ankles up. Unfortunately for her what you do from the ankles down is 70% of the essence of ice skating and all she did beyond there was horrid, except her beautiful toe point in moves a leg was off the ice. Chan was the best skater in the world from deep into the ice all the way to his head. 10% of his extended body including his skates and blades making 80% of the difference to Sasha.
It wasn't just the toe-point: it was also the care and neatness in placing her blades on the ice.
I agree Cohen could have won every event from 2002-2006 had she skated cleanly. Except maybe 2002 nationals where she may have still not beaten Kwan even totally clean, and 2005 worlds where 95% likely she wouldnt have been allowed to beat Slutskaya even totally clean. The others- nationals, worlds, Olympics, she would have won all the rest had she skated cleanly in each competition. 2006 Olympics she might not have beaten Arakawa or Slutskaya at their best, but as it was skated she wins for sure clean.
I prefer Kwan as a skater overall to Cohen but those who think Cohen wasnt being considered to win nationals until 2005 or even 2006 are living under a rock. The hype machine on Sasha was high and heavy and for someone like myself who isnt even a Sasha fan somewhat annoying, and she got some extremely generous scores for all the mistakes she made at nationals. I am pretty sure starting in 2003 had she skated perfectly there was nothing anyone, Michelle Kwan included, could have done to stop the judges from going with in a coronation as new U.S #1 from that point forward. It is true Michelle is beloved by the USFSA and U.S judges, but they badly wanted Sasha to become the next superstar of U.S skating and they would have done nothing to impede her becoming that if she gave them an opportunity to annoint her through skating well enough to justify it. She would have gotten any benefit of doubt, including even against Michelle.
Sasha also should have stayed past 2006. She was only 21, and she would have had an easy time being U.S #1 even with mistakes and inconsistency now that Michelle was gone. She could have won each Nationals from 2007-2010 even with mistakes. Internationally it would be harder as the bar was being raised in a big way by people like Kim, Asada, and Ando, and technically women were going far beyond what even her clean best could offer, but never underestimate the power of being US federation clear #1 and the political backing of that, and who knows she may have finally learnt how to compete. With age comes maturity. She could have also stayed past 2010 and taken advantage of the no Kim/no Asada and really weak ladies skating of 2011 and 2012 and won both those worlds comfortably.
With the greater emphasis on fully rotated jumps done from the proper edge (something that clearly hurt Asada to some extent) I am wondering how that would have affected Sasha had she continued? I wasn't paying attention enough to those things when she competed and so I don't know if she had any issues with her jumps.
Rotations was not a problem for Sasha. She had good rotation on her jumps. Flutzing would be her only problem. However Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya seem to get by fine with far worse flutzes than Sasha has.
I was in agreement with everything in your post until this paragraph where all logic and reality steadfastly left the room. I don't think a way past her prime Cohen would have beaten the difficulty and execution that Nagasu displayed in 2008 to win her National title. Reality showed us that Sasha was not going to win the 2010 Nationals with the performances given as she only finished 4th there. The 2007 and 2009 US championships were a crapshoot though, so yeah, perhaps Cohen could have challenged for those titles based on the executed performances from the winners (Meissner & Czisny). It's really hard to say if Sasha could have learned to compete considering she did not even have the motivation to stay in the game and motivation/will power is a key ingredient in the comeback equation for mature, past their prime athletes. If Cohen's 2010 Nationals LP performance is any indication, then it is best that she did stay retired and save face rather than come back in 2011 and 2012. I have a hard time believing that inconsistent/fall prone Cohen could have beaten the consistency that Ando showed in 2011 when a much steelier competitor like Yuna Kim couldn't even do it herself at the World Championships. And where are you getting the no Kim/no Asada idea from past 2010? Kim and Asada both competed at 2011 Worlds and finished 2nd (Kim) and 6th (Asada). Asada finished 6th again at 2012 Worlds, which Kim sat out of. It's hard to say how Cohen would have stacked up against Kostner in 2012. Caro's sublime artistry combined with her stellar skating skills by this point had far surpassed anything Sasha had ever put out on the ice I believe. Kostner doubled a loop in the SP and doubled the 2nd flip in the LP and did not attempt a Lutz, but she was visibly clean in execution throughout the entire event and landed 7 clean triples (including a 3T+3T & 2A+3T) and 3 clean 2Axels over both programs. Cohen was not going to have a 3+3 or 2A+3 by this time in her career, so she would have had to rely on spin values and quality to beat Caro because her lacking footwork sequences (Cohen never had the skating skills of Kostner), lacking jump technical difficulty, and lacking musicality, choreography, and artistry (I never saw any combination of short and long programs from Cohen that could stack up with what Kostner laid down in 2012 in the short and long program; those are 2 of the most glorious combination of programs ever from a woman in a single season IMO)!
All of this is to say and remind you that Cohen was dealing with pretty serious injuries throughout her career (missing the 2001 Nationals due to a stress fracture in her back, suffering from a hip injury and groin injury in the 2006 Olympic season and she was already performing exhibition programs completely stripped of jumps by this point in her career, the tendinitis injury in the 2010 season, which led to so many withdrawals). It's extremely hard to imagine that Sasha would have been healthy and injury free enough to prolong her career as far as you are suggesting.
You cant just someone by how they look after being retired almost 4 years, especialy having gotten injured (probably through pushing themselves too hard after years of not being used to that kind of technical workload) and having no warm up events for nationals. Nagasu in 2008 wasnt that incredible either. She lost the free skate to Flatt and Wagner at nationals. Wagner was something like 15th at worlds that year but would have on the 08 Nationals if she didnt stumble out of a stupid double toe.
None of the U.S girls had a high world ranking until Flatt took 5th place at the 2009 worlds. I dont think it would have been hard for a well trained Cohen to stay on top in the U.S post 2006. Also keep in mind the politics in U.S skating and Nationals in general. Cohen was a huge favorite of the USFSA as discussed already. I strongly believe she would have won Nationals in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, over Kwan who they worship like a god, had she just skated cleanly (and as you admit to agreeing with everything I said pre 2007, it seems you agree on this too), and that was with Kwan skating her best in all but 2000. This speaks to how much in love with Cohen they were. So they wouldnt let skaters like Nagasu or Flatt who were basicaly inferior skaters all politics aside anyway, and who werent even getting good results outside the U.S except for Flatt at the 2009 worlds and Nagasu in Vancouver ever beat Sasha had she stayed on top, kept her reputation up, and kept her technical skills reasonably high, unless she melted down and landed only about 3 triples. Cohen was coming back into the fray in 2010, and had not kept her tech. skills up at a world class level, so nothing was the same in that case. By her gift in the short program though it was clear they were still looking to put her on the team, and possibly as U.S Champion had she held it together in the long anyway though. They even had a long closed door meeting in picking the team after the event, and a rumor was leaked at the time they were arguing whether to still possibly put Cohen on the team even then, and that NBC had payed a ton of money to have her on the team before Nationals.
Cohen really was beautiful. All the time (unless she was falling ) People say Lipnitskaya was beautiful, but Cohen would NEVER flip for her flip with such ugly bent leg or allow her upper body to drop on jump landings.
I would say the judges and the US Fed were ready for her in 2004. Kwan had had her feel good comeback season in 2003 and with Nationals being her game always and Worlds being in the US too, I don't think Cohen had a chance. But in 2004 Kwan was again showing that she wouldn't do the GPs and her injury was surfacing. Both her technical content and artistic content went down. I believe Campbells in the start of the 2003/4 season was the first time Cohen beat Kwan in a competition. She had moved to Tarasova and showed up with a wonderful free skate. It was to be her year.
2005 Worlds was going to be Slutskaya's no matter what (that rotten short program judging was enough proof) and for 2006 Olympics, if all the top skaters were to go clean, the contenders would be Slutskaya, Arakawa, Cohen and Kostner. I don't think she could win the battle but she would likely medal still, probably ahead of Arakawa.
Please. With those other 3 skating clean, baby version Kostner didnt have a chance in Turin. She barely beat a bad Kwan to medal at the 05 worlds, a clean Cohen, clean Slutskaya, and clean Arakawa would crush her badly no matter how she skated, and even a clean Kwan (had she skated) would have probably taken the 4th place before her and bumped her down to 5th or lower. Had Mao been there and skated her best too the final results would be: gold- Arakawa, silver- Asada, bronze- Slutskaya or Cohen, 5th- Kwan, 6th- Suguri or Kostner or Ando. That is with everyone doing their best. Olympics being in Italy means nothing, the Italian federation has no pull.
As for Shizuka the way she was skating in practice if she duplicated that nobody could have beaten her, including a top form Slutskaya. She got 125 for a LP with only 5 triples and some popped jumps. Cohen also made 5 clean triples and scored almost 10 points lower. Had Shizuka done 7 triples without a triple-triple she would already score 133 around. Then had she done the program with 2 triple-triples like she was doing in practice over and over she would get atleast 140 points, well out of the reach of others except for Irina in Russia with good programs (while her long that year sucked).
I also disagree with you on 2003. Sasha had all the momentum after the grand prix events and even in the short and long at Nationals the judges left tons of room for Cohen to win had she gone clean. By worlds she lost the momentum after Nationals and Kwan now had the edge, but if she did a triple lutz-triple toe she would have won for sure, since Sokolova and her garbage skating even took judges off Kwan in every round just due to her triple lutz-triple toe so a skater like Cohen with stunning artistry, stunning spins, and stunning spirals would have had to win with that.
Saying if Cohen landed her triple lutz/triple toe is like saying if Evan landed his quad.
Except she did land it atleast twice that season. She landed it to open her long program at worlds (but not in gold contention at that point), then fell on a triple toe and camel spin. Had she gone clean after the triple lutz-triple toe I am sure she would win the long program, when Elena Sokolova who is a horrible horrible skater in everything but jumps got a 1st place ordinal, and three 1st place ordinals in the short, and won the silver just due to her triple lutz-triple toe.
Evan has landed clean quads, and even clean quad-triples btw. Check his skate at the 2007 Nationals, his best ever. Had he won his Olympic gold with that skate he would be much more revered and not so mocked and put down like he is today by people who are upset he is an OGM.
Uh, Sasha had a far worse flutz than Lipni or Sotni have. The latter two have a Kwan/Slutskaya-type flutz while Sasha has a Mao-type flutz which should always get a big "e"-deduction.
I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I am not saying Kostner would deserve to be competitive with the top 3, just saying that it could happen. For 3 years in a row, she was receiving top 5 PCS. A little home country boost to top 3 PCS territory wasn't so impossible since she wasn't that far behind anyway. IIRC she was always planning a 3/3 in the short as well as 7 triples plus 2 2axels in the free, probably the highest planned base value out of those 4.
Arakawa and Cohen were on comparable PCS at the French GP. But at the Chinese GP, a clean Slute with a 3/2 scored 12.5 points more than Arakawa did with a popped flip. In the free, a 6 triple Slute scored 10 points more than Arakawa did with a popped loop when neither had other falls or mess ups. Deserved or not, Slute was around 0.4 to 0.5 ahead on each component at that competition. The Olympics free skate was the only time Arakawa pulled ahead of both on PCS, and barely, despite Cohen and Slute both making serious mistakes. I don't think Arakawa was as unbeatable as you thought she was. IIRC she (and Ando) were getting quite frequently dinged on downgrades on their 3/3s in 05 and 06.
I think back in 2003 they would go with Cohen if she was clean and Kwan messed up. But with Kwan skating the way she did and lifted the crowded, she wasn't going to lose no matter how Cohen would skate. Kwan didn't miss a single jump at practice. They didn't have to put Hughes ahead of her when Hughes' jumps regressed back to juvenile quality but they did anyway, unnecessarily. They didn't trust Cohen the same way they did Kwan. Worlds proved them right.
However, starting in the 2004 season, it was clear Cohen would get some help against Kwan. She got to beat Kwan at a cheesefest and score really, really high at Nationals, even getting a 6.0 despite falling and skating before Kwan skated. That was the moment when I felt the tide turned and Cohen could have taken Kwan's title if she skated a clean Swan Lake at Nationals. Too bad she had to bake all those cookies during Xmas and didn't give more to Tarasova. Let's face it - that's why she got fired and ultimately led to her never beating Kwan at Nationals.
Not really. On a typical day Cohen, Slutskaya, Kwan, Suguri, Arakawa, all got higher PCS.
She was very far behind people like Cohen and Slutskaya in PCS at that point.
At the 2005 worlds she did the only triple-triple in the short and was dumped to 4th behind Irina and Sasha who both had mistakes, and Kwan who had lower level elements.
Obviously how they were viewed by the judges at the Olympics was entirely different. The short program already proved that. Then in the long Slutskaya needed 6 triples to even have a chance to beat Shizuka with only 5, what does that tell you.
Well I think you are wrong but we will never know. Sasha was not seen as someone you cant count on at that point. She was seen as a young skater who was gaining experience and after a good freshman year (4th at her first ever Olympics and worlds), won almost all her competitions, and beat Slutskaya to win the gp final (vs Kwan who had lost to Irina 3 straight years at the event in addition to the 2002 Olympics and worlds), and was ready to take over at top. That was the perception going into Nationals. Kwan's marks were still the lowest she ever got for perfect skates at Nationals, even with the 1 or 2 6.0s for presentation in the long program. They were clearly waiting for Sasha to deliver and win.
At 2005 Worlds, Slutskaya landed seven triples in the FS, but got credit for only six, as she jumped the 3Lo three times, violating the Zayak rule. (By the rules of the time, she received credit for the 2Lo at the end of the combination, hence 130.x points in the FS instead of over 135 had she note or almost 129 had the rules disallowed the 2Lo at the end of the combo as well as the third 3Lo.) Arakawa landed four and over 30 points behind Slutskaya in the FS. (She didn't crack 100.) Had Arakawa landed everything she'd been landing in practice and received credit for seven triples, she would have received about 18 points in base and up to five points back in GOE -- her 2Lo was -.04 and the 2T lost her -.6, with everything else receiving +GOE -- and she still would have needed to raise her PCS by an average of .875 each to tie Slutskaya's 130.10. Had Slutskaya not Zayaked and received credit for a seventh triple by repeating a solo or combo 3S, Arakawa would have had to raise her average PCS by even more. As it was, Slutskaya averaged 8.25 and Arakawa averaged 7.00.
I am not talking about 2005 worlds though. I never questioned the 2005 worlds were Slutskaya's to lose and even if Arakawa, Cohen, and Kwan had all landed 2 different 3-3s there, Slutskaya would have probably still been given the win if she landed just 4 triples. For two reasons, in 2005 Slutskaya was really the best skater, and also after dominating the whole season, being in Russia, her whole emotional comeback, she always had a huge edge and it was always her worlds to lose.
However the 2006 Olympics are a different place, different time and it is clear from the way Arakawa and Slutskaya were scored there things were not anything the same as the 2005 worlds, or even the earlier events of 2005. Slutskaya was no longer the judges princess after getting beaten by a 15 year old girl at the grand prix final, her long program that year sucked big time, unlike her long program in 2004-2005 which worked perfectly for her and her skating when she delivered it well, and Shizuka, Sasha, and others were learning how to use COP well and build the points up, while before only Slutskaya and to a lesser degree Cohen had managed this. Shizuka after tearing up practices was also in better graces of the judges, as her very generous short program score proved.
Shizuka's skate at the 2005 worlds sucked badly in everyway. She only had 2 clean jumping passes out of 7, didnt even do a required double axel, her programs that year sucked just like Irina's long in 2006, and she skated with no energy or life at all. She wasnt ever beating Irina at the 2005 worlds anyway, just like nobody else was ever going to, but lets not waste time analyzing her skates there either.
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