Who would you pick for 2nd U.S ladie sspot to Worlds along with Wager

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by judgejudy27, Oct 29, 2012.

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Which U.S lady will join Wagner on World team

Poll closed Feb 6, 2013.
  1. Gold

    29.3%
  2. Nagasu

    36.1%
  3. Gao

    21.8%
  4. Czisny

    6.8%
  5. Zawadzki

    4.1%
  6. Zhang

    2.0%
  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    She had some wonderful moments at Nationals last year, but this year we are adding in Gold, H. Miller, a 2nd year surging Wang, possibly Cesario, an improved Gao, Hicks, and Keiser, all of whom skate with much more speed and excitement than Caroline. To try to imagine a scenario where she deservedly finishes 2nd at Nationals, kind of means a nightmare competition all around- sorry but she is just way too slow. There's also Lam, Cain, and Siraj to consider (not for 2nd place, but IMO they are as good as Zhang).
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I would say that is a major understatement. :lol: Would love to see Caroline finally qualify for a Worlds if it happened, but it would require the competition of her life and a competition that pretty much amounts to a total splatfest, and even then have to wait IF the judges choose to give her the nod or not in that case.

    Whatever happens though I do admire her greatly for her determined comeback and what she managed to get back to last season after how far she had sunk. The fact she managed to return to being a contender again is amazing in itself. I am not sure if her comeback will end up ever going further than where it reached last season or not though.

    The thing that will help all these women is if Wagner and whoever regain 3 spots for the U.S ladies back. Granted that would probably leaved only 1 spot to fight for, as whoever helps Wagner get the U.S 3 spots back would almost be ensured an Olympic team spot barring a meltdown at next years Nationals. The USFSA would have enornmous confidence in whichever duo did for the U.S what it has taken them years to do again.
     
  3. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Except she did back up her strong Nationals with a solid bronze at 4CCs, only placing behind Wagner and Asada, and ahead of Zawadzki, and also Murakami and Kexin Zhang who placed top ten at Worlds.

    Unless proven otherwise in the GPs, I am ready to count out Zawadzki and Czisny. When they implode, they really implode. Too much is on the line for either of them to be sent in my opinion. When Nagasu, Gold, Gao, or Zhang implode, they usually could still pull off 3 to 4 triples and perhaps salvage a bottom top 10, if their short program was good enough. Wang might not have the PCS of the top group, but it is possible that she could make it up on TES.

    Right now, I would assume Wagner pretty safely has the first spot. The second spot shall be awarded to one of Nagasu, Gold, Gao, Zhang and Wang. Gao and Wang have already skated well so far this season, Nagasu and Gold might have medalled at senior Bs but still have much to prove. Zhang has a LOT to prove. My money is on Gold.
     
  4. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Can someone answer something for me...

    Doesn't the USFSA always pick the top two at nats if it's two spots, or top three if it's three spots etc. I know that they say that they deliberate to make the decision, but from what I've seen, they always just pick their top finishers. Is this true?

    I'm Canadian so I'm not really in the loop when it comes to US Figure Skating haha. I wish they would take more factors into consideration if they don't factor in other things than nats placement.
     
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The U.S does pretty much always send the top finishers from Nationals to Worlds. However the skaters they favor go a long way to the scores at Nationals as last year when Czisny melted down and still placed 2nd when she probably should have been 5th or 6th reflects. Unfortunately for Czisny I doubt her favor with the USFSA is anything like last season, in fact she is more likely to receive Flatt treatment this year.
     
  6. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Make sure you keep your receipt! :lol:

    It remains to be seen if Gracie has what it takes to compete at a high level. She sort of bombed her first test. She's going to need a stellar skate at her next event as well as nationals to prove to the judges she has some sort of consistency where her performances are concerned. How many strong juniors have we seen unravel when they hit the big stage?

    I find Gracie average to weak in other areas of her skating, but who knows? Maybe she'll do what Mirai did in 2010 and come alive at nationals. Mirai had been pretty average on the GP that year but at nationals she looked like an entirely different skater. Maybe Gracie will have that kind of transformation...

    The good thing for Gracie is it won't be the end of the world if she doesn't make the world team. I think the time to develop might do her some good b/c she's nowhere near where she needs to be to compete with the likes of Mao, Carolina, Yu-Na, Akiko, Ashley or any of the other senior ladies when it comes to overall PCS. Her SS are good and her TR are great but she falls short everywhere else. She needs time to mature as a performer in order to compete at that level...assuming SC was just a fluke in terms of her jumps.
     
  7. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Yes I am aware of the Nats judging situation... Thanks for clearing that up :)

    I suspect Flatt treatment for Czisny, and I hope that whoever performs the best out of Mirai and Christina gets the 2nd spot (no politics in the choice, just fair judging). Unless Christina goes lights out at her next grand prix too (in which case they can prop her up all they want at Nats ;)) I could live with GGold but ONLY if she proves her capabilities at her next GP, even so, she's a sketchy choice imo.
     
  8. edonice

    edonice New Member

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    I chalk up Gao's inconsistency to her changing height. Her jumping technique has always been beautiful (except for her wonky double axel). But she always looked too skinny and too tall for herself; until now.
     
  9. Mirai4life

    Mirai4life New Member

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    I really, really hope it's Mirai!

    Gao is my second bet. <3
     
  10. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mirai is to inconsistent and doesn't handle pressure well.
     
  11. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Unfortunately GGold hasn't proven herself to be any different :/...yet. The only US lady who fits the consistent and handles pressure well bill is Ashley.

    Can we send two Ashley Wagners to worlds? ;) I'd put my money on that heheh
     
  12. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I mean I think she is most likely to be propped up. I agree she is more of a 2018 hope than a 2014 hope. But between Gao's competitive history (peaking too early), Zhang's scores, Nagasu's downgrades etc, there really aren't many choices.

    Hopefully one of these girls can step up BEFORE Nationals to make things easier.
     
  13. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Actually, if all the other girls are not reliable, perhaps just sending Wagner alone won't be a bad idea. She very likely will place top ten, thus securing 2 girls for Sochi. But in the event that she places top 2, she can secure 3 spots. It's a tough order I know, but certainly not impossible. It's probably easier to have Wagner place top two than have the second lady place top 8.
     
  14. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Ashley is great, but sending her alone is a really bad idea to me. If she were to get sick while she's there and has to withdraw, we would have zero ladies to fall back on, and would actually miss getting an Olympic spot at all. Valentina Marchei finished 8th at Worlds with a 150.10, and Ksenia Makarova 9th with a 149.48. Ten US ladies have already scored higher than Valentina's score internationally this year- 185+ =Wagner, 170+ = Gao, Zawadzki, Gold, 160+ = Nagasu, Wang, 150- = Miller, Cesario, Keiser, and Hicks.

    That said, the Worlds field gets stronger this year when you put Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova in there instead of a Makarova and Korobeinikova. Osmond instead of Lacoste, Yuna Kim, Zijun Li, add Korpi back in...

    So far the SB list looks like this -


    1 188.37 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
    2 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
    3 181.76 Mao ASADA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    4 177.92 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    5 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    6 175.16 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    7 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
    8 169.86 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    9 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
    10 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    11 168.00 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    12 163.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    13 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012
    14 161.65 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
    15 160.52 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 12.10.2012
    15 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    16 160.06 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    17 158.79 Valentina MARCHEI ITA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012

    - Alissa, Agnes, and Yuna Kim have yet to compete for an ISU SB score this season...
     
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  15. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^ Wow. Thanks for the list, Haribobo. It's a good snapshot of where we are. But, don't forget Kostner, who also hasn't skated yet. Will she debut internationally at Euros, then? and I forgot, is Ando out for the season?

    Ashley is in a very good position right now. I doubt Alissa or Agnes will top her score but Yu Na might.

    Back to Caroline: I reiterate that she's a scrapper, so I think she does have a chance at the #2 spot. But if any of Gao, Nagasu, Zawadzki or Czisny perform well, she'll be relegated behind them. Then again, ice is slippery and all of those ladies are capable of being craptacular. What are the chances, though, of all of them failing?
     
  16. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    The fact is we don't have a strong number 2 Lady here in the US right now so even if Ashley gets on the podium the other girl might not even make the top ten. To think the US almost always used to have two strong skaters at Worlds almost every year.
     
  17. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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  18. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    Czisny has no chance whatsoever

    I think we can rule out zhang after her GP results

    Gao has had good results in the season but to me she still has the components of a junior

    Zawadski could easily make it, but she would have to skate 2 clean programs and we are still yet to see that

    Gold has to stop popping the easier jumps like her 3loop. She needs the technical points because her components are not so great

    Nagasu will have the edge on components, but has to land clean jumps



    Really could be any of them, most likely will be Nagasu with Gold trailing close behind.
     
  19. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, Gold was winning this particular poll for awhile. Now, it's Nagasu by a point. In the same poll in a different thread, Nagasu is also winning, maybe because of her recent performance at NHK, while Gold's recent success at her last GP has been forgotten? Gao who started out ahead in this poll, after her silver at Skate America, is fast becoming an afterthought, particularly in the other/ same poll. ;)
     
  20. TwizzlerS

    TwizzlerS Well-Known Member

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    Gao is doing better in this poll than the other one. Both polls have Gold and Nagasu tied.
     
  21. PeterG

    PeterG Argle-Bargle-ist

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    Zhang will crush everyone in her path.
     
  22. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    Too risky. Injuries happen.

    I believe that either Mirai or Gold are safe bets to finish top 10. Gao could also finish in top 10, but on the bubble. Assuming that Ashley finishes #1 or #2, the USA has a good chance of securing 3 spots at the 2014 Olympics.

    The skater should not send to world this year is Czisny. Nothing personal, but she is the least consistent of all, and when she does poorly, it's really really bad.

    Agnes needs to develop more consistency before making the 2013 worlds team. She could make the 2014 or 2015 worlds team, though (regardless of whether she makes the Olympic team or not). I still have hopes for her.
     
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting to see what they do if everyone skates their best at Nationals. I am actually not so sure Nagasu can beat Gold if both are at their best. Even Nagasu's best will be well beaten by Gold's best when it comes to TES, and Mirai's presentation is not what it used to be and she doesnt get very high PCS either anymore, although probably still higher than Gold. Zawadzki at her best would make it even more interesting. If Zawadzki skates her best in the SP she will probably kill the other two in that phase, and it is hard to guage her LP scoring potential since she has never skated a really good one, but she might still be able to hold on. A large part comes what the USFSA wants though, I am sure they will have already hinted at who they would prefer to get that 2nd spot all things equal, and that will play a large part in the marks pending performances.

    I am rooting for Gao to get the 2nd spot but like every year she will probably be at the mercy of the others and how many mistakes they make. She just doesnt have the scoring potential of the others, even though she has been consistent this year.

    I dont think Zhang and Czisny are any factors this year.

    I guess the last question is if Wagner has several mistakes and Nagasu or Gold or even Zawadzki skate perfectly what do the judges do. I suspect given her consistently great international results over the last year, and the complete lack of international reliability of all the others, they would still protect Wagner (with good reason) but would still be interesting.
     
  24. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

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    Just this year? I think it's safe to say they won't be a factor at all when it comes to World and Olympic teams.
     
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think if the U.S regains 3 spots and Czisny skates well at Nationals this year and skates well next fall, and skates well at Nationals next year, she could get a spot on the team.

    Zhang I dont think has much or any chance at Sochi, but she could be around until 2018 and continue her improvement of last year if she gets back on track.
     
  26. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

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    Even with 3 spots, I think the only way Czisny can make the Olympic team is to have the skate of her life in both SP and LP at Nationals next year. Stranger things have happened, sure. But I don't see the point of giving her a spot unless the USFSA were giving her a goodbye gift and wanted to send her out in style.

    I also don't see Zhang continuing past 2014.
     
  27. os168

    os168 Active Member

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    Miraicle "Not an Alien" Nagasu.

    ... for completely selfish reason, I want to check out her Exhibition Gala again which I really like, certainly more than her 2 competitive programs.
    She has proven she can regain judge's favour by being more consistent and going for the 3:3. She also seems to have momentum on her side coming off the bronze at NHK.
    My second choice is Gold who could do with more international exposure (to build up PCS) and experience.
    However given ice is slippery, I don't think Ashley is as a sure thing as everyone thinks. For example, I'd love Czsiny unFLATTen her last season treatment from USFSA and regain her placement just to watching everyone else going :mitchell: crazy, and break even more rulebooks :kickass: out of the window.



    :2faced: :slinkaway
     
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I dont see why the USFSA would be that adverse to having Czisny on the 2014 Olympic team if they had 3 spots and if she deserved it via her performance(s) at Nationals. They wouldnt put her on the team over Wagner, and perhaps a 2nd skater who shines from now or then (maybe Gold or Nagasu if they help the U.S regain 3 spots) but I predict the 3rd spot for Sochi to be wide open, and if the U.S fails to regain 3 spots the USFSA will not be happy and the 2nd spot will also probably be wide open too. They dont need to worry about Czisny not qualifying spots for the Olympics, and if they have 3 spots even her qualifying spots for the 2015 Worlds wont be dependent on her if she is the U.S's #3 skater and they have 2 others they can really on who are fairly consistent, and they could even send her to Sochi and leave her off the World team like they did Wylie if they wish. She is still a skater who can produce a good international result if she somehow has a good day. I agree no way Czisny is seeing Worlds this year, even if she does a program with 3 different quadruple jumps at Nationals. They would give her 5s in PCS if neccessary (I know shocking to say that given the past USFSA and U.S judges lovefest with Czisny) to keep her off the World team knowing this is a pre Olympic year with Olympic spots on the line, but next year could be a window for her if she does everything right from now until then.

    As for Zhang you could be right, but she is young enough to go for 2018 if she wants to, but with Gold, Zawadzki, Gao, all likely going to 2018, and all the other up and comers who are just started to be noticed now, she probably wouldnt be any factor by then anyway.
     
  29. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Do you really think most of these skaters can last til 2018?! 6 more years? Skating/injuries can take a toll on the body, plus the ridiculous expenses associated with training another 6 years?
     
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Alissa Czisny has been skating for forever and ever, like extending her career to try for 3 Olympic cycles (presumably), and in the end she is unlikely to make it to the Olympics for any of them. Anyways, IIRC Alissa is not from a wealthy family, but somehow she has managed to make things work and continue training all these years so there's so saying Caroline couldn't do the same. I think Caroline talked about wanting to go to college full time and become a vet though, but maybe she could put that off, or try and do both, hey, it's working for Christina.