Who wins of young ladies guns if all clean

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by dorianhotel, May 1, 2013.

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Who wins out of young ladies stars if all go clean in both programs

  1. Gold

    33.9%
  2. Li

    7.9%
  3. Sotnikova

    31.5%
  4. Tuks

    7.1%
  5. Lipnitskaia

    2.4%
  6. Osmond

    17.3%
  1. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    Of all the really young guns- Osmond, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaia, Li, and Gold, who would place the highest of the group if they all had a clean competition.
  2. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    I think Osmond would win out in that case. She is the most artistic of all the girls, and in jumps only Gold at her best is stronger.
  3. munow

    munow New Member

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    I think Sotnikova will because she has nice skating skills and presentation. She has the content too with seven triples (although she doesn't have a true lutz and her flip looks ugly too, well most flutzers have awful flips anyway) However because of her unstable jump technique her chances of skating clean is extremely low, and many find her recent programs very unappealing.
  4. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    I dont like Sotnikova's skating. Her programs are often awful and artisticaly blah, and her jumps are fugly and not that strong. Even if she skated clean she wouldnt impress me nearly as much as Osmond or others on a good day.
  5. karlon

    karlon New Member

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    If they all had a clean competition,
    Of course, I think it would be Gracie Gold. The second is Sotnikova.
  6. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    The other thing about Osmonds skating is she has amazing transitions. She does real steps and moves going into every jump and spin. That should both greatly increase her PCS and her GOE to help her TES too, although it seems the judges dont reward her for it as they should.
  7. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    I thought Kaetlyn was getting quite good PCS for a debutant, and it's not as if transitions and spunk were absolutly everything about PCS.
    Gracie beating Kaetlyn in PCS at the WTT (and I'm not sure if it happened elsewhere too) was a bad, bad joke though.

    Anyway, I doubt Kaetlyn would come out ahead. She's missing the 3Lo, sans "just" 6 triples, while all the others are doing 7.
    From this group, I think it would come down to Gracie vs. Adelina. Gracie has the better jumps, though I don't agree at all that Adelinas jumps are fugly - her technique is shaky on the Lutz and Flip, but her jumps are huge and powerful. And when she lands them right, she has gorgeous extention on the landing. Both girls are having the same layout, and while Adelina flutzes, Gracie lips. So the main plus Gracie can make are the +GOE.
    On the other hand I'd say Adelina leads in pretty much everything else - easily better in steps, about average in spins (though I think Adelinas's are a little better too), and Adelina has better skating skills, carriage and body lines (by far). Adelina "skates big", while Gracie doesn't (for now). And the choreos were equally... blah.
    So I think it would be close... I gave the notch to Adelina, simply because at this points Gracie leads with so many votes :D

    For Liza, I really hope Mishin works on her skating skills with her. Her presentation and interpretation are fine, and her choreography isn't that bad either. But her PCS are always so low, it's really holding her back.
    And I'm suprised Zijun is the only one without any votes. I would have put her before Kaetlyn and Liza, actually.
  8. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    1. Sotnikova
    2. Gold
    3. Tuktamisheva
    4. Osmond
    5. Li
    6. Lipnitskaia
    Last edited: May 2, 2013
  9. Skater91

    Skater91 New Member

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    Give her another year or 2 and I think Zijun Li will dominate all of them!

    But for now, considering the programs of the 2012-2013 it would be

    1. Adelina
    2. Gold
    3. Tuk

    but they would all be very close
  10. Dr.Siouxs

    Dr.Siouxs Well-Known Member

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    :lol:
  11. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

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    Why? We are talking about skating at their best. I like her, but she doesn't have Kaetlyn's power, transitions, and presentation, nor does she have Liza's textbook jumps. Her strength right now is her consistency but if all go clean she no longer has that advantage.

    I think Gold would come out on top simply because she has the most impressive jumps as of now and her speed is impressive - basically all the things that make judges go nuts and they don't seem to give a damn about choreography or presentation if you've got jumps like Gracie's. Sotnikova's jumps while big are not technically clean or pleasant to look at.
    Last edited: May 1, 2013
  12. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    What's funny??

    Sotnikova might have unstable technique on her jumps but she has beautiful flow across the ice, good speed, clean edges, gorgeous lines, lovely posture, and (whether you like her programs or not) she delivers her choreography with expression and energy. She has cleaner and more mature presentation than any of the other ladies on the list...
  13. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    I just think Li is a better mixture, if you want to put it like that. She has 7 triples and a 3F-3T, plus amazing spins. That's why I think she'd beat Kaetlyn in TES. And on the other side, I think she'd beat Liza in PCS - and in that case, TES is not just jumps either, and their BV is really close. I'm not even sure Liza would win the TES by that much.

    Besides that, I know people like to praise Kaetlyns transitions - but for me, there was a huge difference between her SP and LP. Her SP was completly kickass, but the LP wasn't as impressive to me. So I think Kaetlyn should easily win the PCS in the SP, but the LP is a different game.
  14. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Sadly, who wins depends on where the competition is held.
  15. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    All this talk about Osmond doing only 7 triples and not doing a triple loop is silly. Yu Na Kim only does 6 triples and doesnt do a triple loop, and does that mean she would lose to Sotnikova, Li, Gold, if they skated clean and she skated clean too, LOL!
  16. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I think Sotnikova would win if they were all clean, or maybe Osmond but Sotnikova skates maybe slightly more maturely right now. Gold is most likely to go clean, IMO.
  17. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

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    Zijun's spins besides the lay back are all just okay quality - decent enough to tick all the level boxes but not particularly fast or with great extension. Even though she attempts all 7 triples she has a pretty unfixable flutz. Her jumps may get the BV but I don't think they can score as much GOE as the other girls can potentially score. Don't get me wrong, I've like her skating since she was a junior and consistency has always been one of her biggest strengths. But until she really improves on all aspects of her skating (power, speed, projection, extension, interpretation) she'll have to rely mainly on her consistency and others to make mistakes to place well.
    You don't think Osmond's LP has good transitions?
    Last edited: May 1, 2013
  18. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    Sokolova is the ultimate definition of an overrated skater. The judges would not place her 1st if everyone skated cleanly. Europeans shows her scoring cap is about 130 in the LP even clean (what she would have gotten with her triple flip) and even that probably only a Euro friendly event like Europeans. Gold, Osmond, Tuktams, can all go above 130 if they are clean.
  19. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    Zijun flutzes, but so does Kaetlyn. If the flutz is a little less or more severe doesn't really do much to the scores right now (though I agree Kaetlyn is more likely to fix it in the seasons to come).
    GOE is... well, not always what they're supposed to be. Zijuns jumps at worlds garnered +1's and +2's, and Kaetlyn isn't exactly getting a lot of +3's - it's another thing if you agree with it, but the judges tend to give out +1's just the moment a jump is landed, if it had the quality or not. It's similar to the Gracie vs. Adelina thing - if people think Adelinas jumps are pleasant to look at or not, she's getting up to +2's on them quite regulary if she lands them well.

    And I'm not disliking Kaetlyns LP, it's a nice program and still the best of the LPs this young girls had this season, but it's not that far ahead. Her SP is more complex, more intricate and I thought she regulary selled it better than her LP (not counting the mistakes, I mean).

    Yeah, because any of those young girls, including Osmond, had Yunas absolutly amazing overall skating to make up for the missing triple... but it was clear someone would make that comment :rolleyes:
  20. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    You are missing the point. 6 triples vs 7 is not some big or any disadvantage under COP. Even leaving a type of triple out means nothing. Under 6.0 it would be huge, but this isnt 6.0 anymore. Many 6 triple programs without a triple (unless it is the lutz) have a higher base value than many 7 triple programs. Kim does not need to "make up" the points lost by an extra triple on others, even though she could. She would easily gain more points on jumps alone than all these ladies even clean, except maybe Gold. She isnt disadvantaged by it anyway. I am not saying Osmond is as good as Kim in jumping or overall skating yet, but having 6 triples and missing a triple doesnt mean you lack difficulty under COP, especialy when you can do a 3-3 which Osmond like these others can.
  21. Sparks

    Sparks Well-Known Member

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    Sokolova isn't skating anymore. ;)
  22. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    Yuna can afford not having a Loop because of her monster of a Lutz - she has two amazing Lutzes in her FS + one in her SP, in combo no less. Kaetlyn does one Lutz. The reason 6 triples can have a higher BV than 7 is because of which triples you are doing - but Kaetlyn doesn't repeat the hardest of the triples. For her, not having a Loop is more of a problem than for Yuna pointwise, even if you don't start to talk about quality. Additionally, there's the 2A. A lot of 7-triple-programs don't have two 2A's, since for that, you need a 3-3 besides the 3T-3T and very likely a 2A-3T (or a 3-3Lo combo). All of these girls besides Kaetlyn are attempting those.
    Yes, the difference in BV is not that much and could be made up with PCS, non-jump elements and GOE, but I don't think Kaetlyn could do that as things are now.

    Oh, and for that... so Gracie, Kaetlyn and Liza can score above 130 - and Euros showed that Adelina will score over 130 too if clean. That proves exactly what?
  23. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    Europeans only showed Sotnikova can barely reach 130 if she goes clean at Europeans. Given how European skaters are scored at Europeans that means she probably couldnt anywhere else. Also she would have lost the LP to Tuktamysheva at her own Nationals (just as she did the short program) and maybe even at Europeans where Tuk. was down after the short, even had she gone clean. She is a super overrated skater.
  24. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    Sotnikova of course, IMO, she is the only all-around skater in the list. Huge jumps, very good spins, great skating skills, lines, best basics of all these ladies. Flutz, yes, but all others except only Liza are flutzing/lipping too.
    Then I would put Tuktamysheva and Gold. Both are great jumpers and both need to work on presentation.
    Zijun Li is a lovely skater, but she needs time to get more power and flow.
    Osmond, IMO, is overrated. I wouldn't call her jumps nice, her basic skating and lines leave much to be desired. Transitions, yes. But other girls skating is much cleaner than hers.
    Lipnitskaya is a dark horse so far. She is younger than other girls and is dealing with puberty and injuries. But once she matures - I wouldn't be surprised if she will beat them all
  25. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    Adelina had 126+ with a popped 3F and an underrotated 3T. Her 3F's tend to get +GOE (if you agree with it or not), so let's say she lost about 6 points with that jump - 132+. The 3T< makes this 133+. Liza had 131+ at the same event. Gracie got 132+ at her nationals.
    You have quite an interisting definition of over- and underrated :D
  26. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    Pretty similar to the poll results. Sotnikova and Gold fighting it out for first of this group (unless in Canada, since we all see how Canadian skaters get scored there), Osmond probably 3rd highest of that group (unless in Canada in which with one fall she beats Sotnikova and Gold clean), then the other Russians, then Li last. None can medal over the more senior champions unless they make mistakes though, even at their current best.
  27. BelleBway

    BelleBway a monkey stole my title

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    Who wins if all the top young female skaters go clean? That's easy- Skating fans. :D It would be one helluva comp.
  28. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    1. Sotnikova
    2. Tuktamysheva
    3. Gold
    4. Osmond
  29. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    This is surprisingly a very tough poll.

    Jumping wise i would say gold has the strongest technical, but IMO she is probably 5th in components.
    Elizaveta would be next for technical, but her components are better than Gold
    Sotnikova has ok jumps but if she is cean then i guess she is also landing 3Lz+3T. Her components are probably higher than gold and tuk
    Osmond would have slightly lower technical as we havent seen her do 3-3 in free program. but once again her components are even higher than the rest even without the home crowd
    Li is more of an all rounder, her jumps are good and components are good, but lacks slightly on goe which would put her technical below others if clean
    Lipnitskaya i would say would lose if all skated clean because of her low GOE and disastrous components

    I really dont know who to vote for, so i voted Zijun Li because i like her the best
  30. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

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    Well, the judges' inability to use GOEs correctly has been a constant since the day IJS was adopted. I'll agree to disagree. Just don't see Li placing ahead of Osmond if both skate cleanly.
  31. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    Li would never beat Osmond if both skate cleanly. That is crazy IMO. Maybe one could argue she should have a chance, but the way the judges score both it is obvious who would win.

    BTW Li'Kitsu the reason Li has almost no votes even if you feel she would beat a clean Osmond or Tuktamysheva (totally wrong IMO but to each their own) is it is already obvious by Worlds she would have no chance to beat a clean Gold. In the LP of Worlds a flawed Gold with several stumbles beat a totally clean Li. She even beat her in PCS, Gold's weakness. So that already eliminates her in everyones minds (to get the vote it is saying clean so and so would beat clean everyone else on this poll), hence no votes. Atleast Osmond and Tuk. it is more subjective since we have almost never seen their very best against the others at theirs, and we havent seen them skate their best LP and lose to someone on this list.
  32. lowtherlore

    lowtherlore New Member

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    Limiting my opinion to be relevant as to 2013-14 season:

    1. Gold &#8211; I think she has way better flow, speed and jumps among the young ones, and huge room for improvement in performance/presentation.

    2. Sotnikova &#8211; IMO she has some tasks at hand in negotiating flow and jump technique. She has good height but poor flow on her jumps, and it would be a huge challenge to improve her skating and at the same time her jumping technique and consistency.

    3. Osmond &#8211; I think she has good potential to be a performer. But to be a consistent performer AND a winner, she needs to fix/stabilize her jumps first, and second, to control (mental and goal-oriented) pace and broaden the width of her presentation. She&#8217;s exciting, and I hope she is ambitious and hard-working.

    4. Tuktamysheva &#8211; She&#8217;s a lovely skater, but everything she does looks tiny. IMO the only way for her to be a winner is to be a consistent and convincing performer with pound-per-pound punch in her skating and jumps. Sorry to mention that she has some disadvantage in terms of size/scale, but I think it&#8217;s a fact. I do think she can overcome this, but it would take huge commitment and determination. I would love to see her strong next season.

    5. Li &#8211; I think she will be a champion at some point in the next quadrennial leading up to PyeongChang. She needs to control her puberty, build up strength and speed, and stay injury-free. She has every quality to be a great performer as she would mature in the years to come.
  33. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    This strikes me as funny! How does one control their puberty?!
  34. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Don't they all need to stay injury-free to succeed?!
  35. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    No she didn't, Li was 4th, Gold was 5th in the LP.
  36. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    My bad, but it was still close enough that it is evident a clean Li would have no chance at all to beat a clean Gold, so you shouldnt be surprised nobody is voting for her. Worlds LP and how obvious it was a made a clean Gold is certain to beat a clean Li already eliminates her from being considered. The others atleast you havent seen their best against the others much or ever.
  37. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Another one : And if she is the best of the group, she will win. :p
  38. karlon

    karlon New Member

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    :confused:
    Why??

    I think Osmond has been the most overrated among youngsters. And I think Li zijun has been the most underrated by judges.

    Li zijun has a better presentation than Osmond, regardless of the PCS.
    She was one of the skaters who was praised most in 2013 WC. Even some said they felt she shows performance better than some veteran skaters, and I agree with them.
  39. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    And I said myself clean Gold would beat clean Li. But clean Gold would beat clean Tuktamysheva and clean Osmond too, so I'm not seeing how the comparison between Gold-Li helps anything with Li-Osmond-Tuktamysheva.

    Agreed. I think Li was always under the radar and a little forgotten between Gold, the russians and then Osmond. And this influences the PCS, that's nothing new. But she got herself some respect at worlds :)
  40. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    That clean Gold would beat clean Osmond and clean Tuktamysheva is your opinion, and could well be right, but my point is that wasnt proven the way Li vs Gold is. No event happened that made it obvious if this is the case or not. There are probably some who think that is not the case. Worlds LP proved clean Gold beats clean Li and it isnt even disputable. So Li is already eliminated by that in virtually everyones mind, hence almost no votes, while atleast Osmond and Tuktamysheva havent been proven to not possibly win in an all clean competition amongst these girls, as there isnt an example they did a clean LP and lost (or nearly lost to someone from this list with several mistakes with their own clean LP). Li is the only one on this list who actually went clean and was proven in that instance to have no shot vs someone else on the poll, so it makes sense she has very low votes. That is if your opinion she would beat a clean Osmon and clean Tuktamysheva was even correct, which IMO it definitely isnt, but even if you feel a clean Li is above those, because of what happened between Gold and Li in the LP at Worlds you should still not be surprised her votes are so low.

    BTW Tuktamysheva scored over 130 in her LP at Europeans, so if you think Euro scores are legit (and you must as you keep pumping up Sotnikova based on that), that would also prove a clean Tuktamysheva would beat a clean Li right now.