Who will win the ladies Grand Prix Final?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Jul 24, 2011.

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Who will win the ladies Grand Prix final?

Poll closed Aug 24, 2011.
  1. Mao Asada

    33 vote(s)
    19.3%
  2. Adelina Sotnikova

    49 vote(s)
    28.7%
  3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    8 vote(s)
    4.7%
  4. Mirai Nagasu

    33 vote(s)
    19.3%
  5. Rachael Flatt

    3 vote(s)
    1.8%
  6. Alissa Czisny

    18 vote(s)
    10.5%
  7. Carolina Kostner

    9 vote(s)
    5.3%
  8. Akiko Suzuki

    2 vote(s)
    1.2%
  9. Kiira Korpi

    1 vote(s)
    0.6%
  10. Alena Leanova

    1 vote(s)
    0.6%
  11. Kanako Murakami

    5 vote(s)
    2.9%
  12. Other

    9 vote(s)
    5.3%
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

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    This season we have a potentially somewhat bizarre situation in the ladies section in which the Grand Prix final could be more competitive than the World Championships. This is because both Adelina Sotnikova and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva make there senior debuts in the Grand Prix, but will not be able to take part in the World Championships. Of course, Miki Ando and Kim Yu Na will be at the World Championships, but will be entering the competition cold without much competitive skating behind them. Kim was a completely different skater at the 2011 Worlds than the skater who won the 2010 Olympic title due to lack of competitive skating. This is an all too similar situation to what we had during the 2005/06 season in which Mao Asada was clearly the best skater, but was barred from competing at the 2006 Olympics and Worlds. In my view, the Age Eligibility Rules should be relaxed by 1 year as this is clearly an absurd situation - nevertheless, that's a subject for another time.

    I think both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are in with a very strong chance of winning the Grand Prix final - both have powerful triple-triple combinations. Whatever happens, I think this years Grand Prix is going to be far more interesting than last years due to their presence, as last years had to be one of the most boring ever. Whatever happens, I just hope Mao Asada is back to her best.

    So who will win the Grand Prix final? Am restricted to 12 nominations so could not fit in Makarova, Phaneuf, Helgesson, and others (including Lepisto as she remains an injury doubt - although I read somewhere that she has now recovered - but seems to be some doubt) in to the list of nominations. Please vote 'other' if wish to vote for one of these others
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2011
  2. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Well-Known Member

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    I think it's a bit too early to tell. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have strong 3-3s and a lot of potential but their skating is still a bit juniorish right now. Who knows how (or if) improved the other senior ladies will be this season. The one thing they all have over the two new Russians is experience. I think we will have an interesting GPS this season but I'm not willing to make any bets on who will actually win the GPF until I see them skate.
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I am not sure. It is totally wide open, and would have been totally wide open even if Ando and a seemingly disinterested Kim had competed (of course the Kim of 2009-2010 would trash all current women including Ando and Sotnikova at this point but who knows when we will see that Kim again, if ever). Rest assured regardless who wins the GPF that Worlds will be wide open too, unless someone who is not underaged totally lights up the GP series and final.

    I think Asada might be done although I hope I am wrong.

    Will Nagasu finally fulfill her potential.

    How will the Russian babies debut as Seniors.

    How will the erratic European brigade pan out, especialy the elder Russians who are now feeling the heat from the Russian babies coming up.

    I dont even really care who wins so much, I just want someone, anyone, to step it up and revive womens skating. Last year was the worst year for womens skating since 1982. Someone needs to step up and take control again, and set the bar for others.
  4. Amy03

    Amy03 New Member

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    it's still to early to tell we haven't seen any off these skaters ad don't know how there condition is, but assuming everyone is in there best condition then i think it would be mao asada that would win it...
  5. bek

    bek Guest

    The thing is in terms of maturity we need to wait and see what Adelina and Elizaveta's programs look like. I'm not so sold on the clip of Elizaveta's program.

    Adelina though is already a very lovely skater for her age, and she might have some very big programs. I have no doubt that Sotnikova is going to be a beautiful skater
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I picked Kostner. I have a wierd feeling she is gradually gaining some consistency and hopefully she is now healthy enough to start doing all the big jumps again, including triple lutzes and triple-triples.
  7. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    I picked Mao. I think she'll come back with her jumps revamped and ready to go! Kostner and Nagasu are my other early picks for medals.

    Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will probably make the final, but I just don't think they'll score in the same PCS range as the above three. I could be wrong. They're both really solid.
  8. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Wow, Sotnikova is the favorite to win the GPF even before she makes her senior debut. How about that. I must say I'm surprised.
  9. mysticchic

    mysticchic Well-Known Member

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    I pick Alissa, it's in Canada
  10. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    Gutted that Jenna Mckorkell didn't make the list :(
  11. falling_dance

    falling_dance The Scarlet Unlettered

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    Well, I'm gutted that Joanne Conway lost the British title to Emma Murdoch during the 1989-90 season; there are some things one just has to live with. ;)
    haribobo and (deleted member) like this.
  12. query5

    query5 New Member

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    predicting before we see them skate--wow, can't believe it.
    i would like to see them skate in competition at least once.
    you can't judge by shows for some skaters-now it is too early, alot of them need work/practice.
    more like who would prefer /like to win the GPF final. not who will win based on competition.
    for that i would go i would like to see alissa, mao, both russian ladies win-like i don't have a preference but who will win, as i stated have to see skate in competition this year before i decide. for me too early.
    just anyone really as this point.
  13. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

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    Here are some links to Sotnikova's and Tuktamysheva's performances at the 2011 Junior Worlds and the 2010 Junior Grand Prix final:-

    Adekina Sotnikova - Junior Worlds 2011 - LP

    Adelina Sotnikova - JGPF 2010 - SP

    Adelina Sotnikova - JGPF 2010 - LP

    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - Junior Worlds 2011 - SP

    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - Junior Worlds 2011 - LP

    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - JGPF 2010 - SP

    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - JGPF 2010 - LP

    I think on the basis of these performances, they are going to be tough to beat in the forthcoming senior Grand Prix series

    There are plenty of other videos of them on YOU TUBE in competitions going back several years
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2011
  14. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    I am looking for Mirai to medal- I hope this is the year when she starts fulfilling her great promise. Win? No clue.
  15. query5

    query5 New Member

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    things happen, things change from year to year.
    i still will wait to see everyone skate in at least one gp event this year before i make my decisions on who will win.

    sometimes the skater and competition clicks/sometimes they don't.
    judging from junior gp events to senior while might be same, the difference is the senior gp event sometimes are judged a bit harsher/differently.
    while i agree the two young russian skaters will be competitive on senior circuit how well they do depends on how well they skate

    like i stated anyone at this point. predicting is still to early for me anyway
  16. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    I am betting on Tuktamysheva having a quite consistent 3axel in addition to her 3/3s next season and winning the whole thing.

    Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I think Asada is done.

    Although I probably should have more belief in Nobuo Sato.
  17. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    :rofl:
  18. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I still have belief that if Mao can fix her edges and her rotation issues (I know it's a lot, but Sato is shooting for 2014, so we'll probably start to see a little progress soon and much more progress in 2013 and 2014) she can definitely be a factor for a medal.

    BTW, besides the triple lutz triple toe, what others 3/3's does Tuktamysheva have?
  19. Amy03

    Amy03 New Member

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    how can you say she is done when she proved everyone wrong and showed to incredible performances at nationals and 4cc!!!

    and even a "done" Asada is still better the the rest of the field just compare mao's score at worlds where her psychical condition was horrible with the highest score someone like Tuktmashewa had scored and you will see that even when mao is in horrible condition she is still better then most of the others.
    especially now that she has had more time to adjust to all her changes, I really wouldn't rule her out, she really is one scary competitor...
  20. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Interesting to see the disparity between the votes given to Adelina and Liza, although I do feel Adelina is the better competitor as of now.

    As for Mao, I just hope she comes back and prove her doubters wrong. :p
  21. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    If her incredible performances these days cant even beat Miki Ando then that isnt exactly promising.
  22. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Miki Ando is world champion, so I don't quite understand your thinking.
  23. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    ITA. Miki's performances beat everyone last season including Yuna.
  24. Lookingood

    Lookingood New Member

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    Im more curious about who will makes it to Grand prix Final in this year then Winner for now. Will Asada going to make it to final this year?
  25. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    I think it's too early too tell, but I want Mao to win. :D
  26. kia_4EverOnIce

    kia_4EverOnIce New Member

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    I think it's too early, but I voted on Adelina, doing like Mao 2005/06 season!
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Kim skating incredibly would crush Ando. The Russian youngsters will too if they pan out as good as expected. So if Asada skating incredibly (previous posters words, not mine) cant even beat Ando anymore then that only further indicates how much trouble she is in going forward.
  28. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    I know there is no direct correlation of scores from one competition to another. Yet Mao has a combined international personal best of 205, Mirai at 190, Kostner at 184, Czisny and flatt at 182. Sotnikova has slightly under 179. We all know any of the top skaters can have a bad day, but I can't see Sotnikova jumping over all these veterans.
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I would say those scores are deceiving to a point. Do you really believe Flatt would beat Sotnikova with both skating their best for instance. Juniors scores tend to be lower.
  30. Amy03

    Amy03 New Member

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    Mao skated two incredible programs at 4cc but she still had mistakes and therefor didn't deliever her best, had she made just one or two less mistakes she would have won that competition.
    the same could be said about Kim if she didn't make those mistakes at worlds she would have won. but since neither asada nor kim where in there best condition last season so ando winning with two totally clean performance doesn't indicate anything.
  31. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    Ando wasn't totally clean at Worlds. She reduced a planned 2Axel+3toe to a 2Axel+2toe with a very noticeable turn-out. Plus, in a post-LP interview, she said that one of her spins wasn't good. 4CC was her best showing of the season without a doubt.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2011
  32. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Well, last season, Miki was skating better than she has probably ever had (at least in a while). I am not a fan of her skating but you gotta hand it to her when it came to her consistency. If "incredible" refers to Olympic or pre-Olympic level performances, then none of the other top skaters reached their previous levels this past season.
  33. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    The level in Ladies was very weak. Ando's lackluster FS would never win otherwise.
  34. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Or, a more direct comparison would point out that despite Leonova having a higher international score Sotnikova, Sotnikova has beaten Leonova head to head (Russian Nationals), that personal bests are innacurate due to scoring changes season to season (and leaps certainly aren't that uncommon - to wit, Patrick Chan and Yu Na Kim).

    I will very impressed with Nagasu if she makes the final. She tends to peak later in the season, two events back to back, lots of travelling (LA to Missisauga to (LA to) Shanghai. Making the final means she likely medalled at both events (and with CoC's current slate, that's impressive, imo). I'd be even more impressed if she won the GPF after that.
  35. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    I have seen both Sot and Tuk live at the Jr Worlds last season and they were very impressive indeed.

    If they skate to their capabilities, and the rest skate like they did at last year's GPF, Sot and Tuk will definitely be the top 2 skaters. I don't necessarily mean to say that they will end up with gold and silver, as I have doubts about judging in figure skating.

    I also like Agnes Zawadzki this year. She has huge jumps and fine spins, and most of all, I felt that she skates with heart. I think this trait, with some improvements in overall flow of her skating, could take her a long way.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a duplicate of last year's jr Worlds podium in coming season's GPF.
  36. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I said Adelina. It could be Mao, Mirai, or Carolina though. Or anyone really. Wide open affair. I will say that I think Adelina will fair better on the circuit than Liza though, I would not be at all surprised if Adelina wins both her events and medals at/wins the final while Liza has middle of the pack finishes. Idk Liza is very talented but she seems prone to mistakes and her 3-3 was MIA a lot last season, so idk how far she can expect to get without it.
  37. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

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    What you need to understand is that the scores for junior girls will always be lower than those of senior ladies because there are less required elements in the programs for junior girls compared to senior ladies. For example, in the free program there is 1 less element - junior girls do not have to do a spiral sequence. Furthermore, a junior free program only last 3 minutes 30 seconds whereas a senior ladies free program last 4 minutes. Accordingly, the top score for Mao, Mirai, and Kostner is bound to be higher than Sotnikova's and Tuktamysheva's as the juniors have less scoring opportunities than the seniors!!

    The really impressive aspect about Sotnikova is that she had the top score (junior or senior) until well into last season (with Tuktamysheva having the second highest score) despite the fact that juniors have less scoring opportunities. Indeed, her score of 178.97 was the leading score right up until the 11th December 2010 when the senior ladies Grand Prix final took place where Alissa Czisny finally beat it with a score of 180.75. (but only by a margin of 1.78 despite the fact that as a senior, Czisny had far greater scoring opportunities than Sotnikova). Now that really is impressive! And it indicates that once Sotnikova is skating a full seniors program, she could potentially score well in excess of 200 points. Furthermore, Tuktamysheva's scores were not that far behind Sotnikova's during the 2010/11 season and she is also in with an excellent chance of winning the Grand Prix final and of scoring in excess of 200 points.
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2011
  38. RockTheTassel

    RockTheTassel Well-Known Member

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    I'm a little surprised that Mao and Mirai are getting so many votes, considering that Mao hasn't qualified during the last two seasons and Mirai only has one GP medal total.

    I ended up voting for Carolina. I just have a feeling that she'll have a good year. But like last season, it's pretty much anyone's to take. If we'd had a prediction thread last year, I'm sure next to no one would have said Alissa even had a shot at qualifying.
  39. icellist

    icellist New Member

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    While i do think that Adelina is the technical goddess of figure skating right now, her skating continues to look junior-ish to me compared to Mao and Yuna the years they were juniors. Adelina is great with jumps but some of her spins are ugly and step sequences are not as strong as current seniors. I still think it's too early to judge the Adelina and Elizaveta. Artistically, they are still very behind and hence I don't want to predicate them when the final. Adelina looks bored when she's skating, probably focusing too much on jumps and Elizaveta reminds me too much of Johnny Weir. I would actually judge them closer than everyones perception of Adelina>Elizaveta. For me Adelina has the technical advantage but Elizaveta edges her out in PCS, but her skating is still junior-ish to me.

    Mao has not started the season strong in a long time so I'm not predicting her to make the final but most likely medal strongly at 4CC. I'm giving Mao another pass ticket this season because the ultimate goal is Sochi and I'm only looking for improvement this year, not a bunch of medals this season. I wonder if Mao has considered stop skating so many shows during the off season, it must really take away from her training. She really doesn't need the money...

    My personal favorite is Mirai. I think people are voting for her because she does have the potential and are hoping very very much that she can bring it. She has great flow in step sequences and out of jumps. She really listens to music. Her jumps always look clean to me. Beautiful spins and strong lines. Sounds like Mao but Mirai looks more effortless. I still can't understand why Mirai's short was so underscored last year... Her skating has matured for me while keeping joy in her skating. The only thing that Mirai lacks is consistency on her triple triple.

    Alissa Czisny is a beautiful skater, one of the best artistically. Her spins are beautiful, even though I don't like her arm positions in some of them... Alissa will go for as a pro-skater, but I don't think she can maintain competitive much longer. Her step sequences dont always look effortless. Her jump content isn't up to par as some other top skaters, and that includes wrong edges on some jumps. The lack of triple triple is also a factor. Alissa came out strong last year, when the women's field was very very weak.

    Carolina Kostner is the PCS goddess. I'd wish she up her technical content, but I'd be scared because she skates so fast and falling at her speed is like a zamboni on rocket fuel. I would give Kostner the highest PCS in any competition if she's "on". I wish she would change her programs though, theyre getting a bit boring. The only other skater that comes close to PCS would be Laura Lepisto.

    Considering how most skaters peak later in the season, I would be betting that consistency can prevail at the GPF. There are so many outcomes for first or silver, but Akiko Suzuki will probably get third or fourth, but it really just depends on who makes it to the final anyway. I really think we should vote "Who will win ladies [enter GP event]?" before the GPF because since entrance to the final is still totally wide open. I am almost sure that Caroline Kostner will make the final because of her 3 entries and Adelina, beccause of her technical consistency and since so many of you are fans of her...

    Can we make a new multiple choice poll voting for who will MAKE the GPF instead? It's still too early and too wide open to vote on this situation yet.
  40. babayaga

    babayaga Active Member

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    I voted for Mao but I admit it was more of what I wish will happen rather than a prediction. As for Mirai, I am pretty sure she will make the final this year. She is mad at herself for doing poorly last season and is determined to do well. She had plenty of time to train and her season starts early this year. I think Mirai can win Skate Canada and medal at Cup of China easily and then do pretty well at the final despite of how she skated in the past.