Who will win Mens GPF?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Nov 28, 2012.

Who will win Mens GPF?

Poll closed Jan 7, 2013.
  1. Javier Fernandez

    5.5%
  2. Machida

    1.0%
  3. Daisuke Takahashi

    8.5%
  4. Kozuka

    1.5%
  5. Yuzuru Hanyu

    25.5%
  6. Patrick Chan

    58.0%
  1. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    Hanyu first, Kozuka second, then Chan and Takahashi will both skate sloppily as per usual and come in 3rd and 4th. Chan's score at COR for that FS with all those doubles was quite inflated, IMO. Yeah, I get he didn't splat all over the place but apart from the quads, the rest of his jump content was like novice men level :shuffle:
     
  2. DaiKozOda

    DaiKozOda Active Member

    545
    65
    28
    I would really love to see Dai run away with the gold medal. Either him or Kozuka. In the end Hanyu or Chan will probably take it so my vote goes to Hanyu.
     
  3. rayhaneh

    rayhaneh Active Member

    452
    102
    43
    I think we should do another pole: who would you love to see winning - I have the feeling things would start to look a bit different :lol:
     
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  4. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

    2,701
    287
    83
    Hmmm... all the debate on Hanyu vs Chan? Would it be interesting if Machida wins gold? Strange things have happened in this GP season.
     
  5. professordeb

    professordeb Well-Known Member

    3,818
    414
    83
    I was replying to a response by VarBar who initially said
    I thought I would go into some detail for those who can't be bothered to look at the protocols aka "the naysayers". It really had nothing to do with how anyone may have voted in the poll or what people had been saying in the posts for this topic. It was more to do with the tone of things on this board in general when it comes to Chan. Hopefully that makes sense?
     
  6. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

    1,253
    211
    63
    Chan and Takahashi will both skate sloppily as per usual and will get beat by Hanyu and Kozuka who will skate cleanly and accurately as per usual.:lol:

    What are some people watching?:rolleyes:
     
  7. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

    2,701
    287
    83
    You are always so right and impartial. Indeed any novice can jump better than Chan.;)
     
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    I was more referring to the 2a, 2lo, and 3lz-1/2 lo-2s....Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou displayed more content when they won their Novice titles at Nationals :p.

    Of course, he also did a 4-3 and another 4t, so I get the argument is kind of dumb. It's just to me, that program was divided into 2 distinct parts - the mesmerizing first minute or so, and the distracted pop-filled remaining 3. Just my 2 cents.

    And Kozuka has been consistent this season. Yuzuru not as much but both his SP scores this season have been huge, and I don't think Chan will be able to top that at this point in the season, so it will come down to the FS, and Hanyu has more difficult content and better spins, plus he usually rotates everything even if he falls. Chan is prone to pops recently and given his history of falling, I wouldn't count that out either. If Hanyu skates clean/near clean and Chan skates like he usually does, I think Hanyu will beat him, and a clean Kozuka might too.

    Machida IMO has no chance of winning where he attempts no quad in the SP. Plus his PCS are much lower than Patrick and Dai, and even an "on" Hanyu or Kozuka. Fernandez's PCS seem to be very volatile...low 7s one competition then mid 8s the next. I love his SP but wish he'd dump the Chaplin FS, does anyone else feel the same way? Idk if its the music cuts being a bit slow and hokey, or the costume, or what, but I just feel like Fernandez is deserving of a better program.
     
  9. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

    256
    11
    0
    Agree.

    And I don't like judges are trying to make Chan's score rival(or false rival) hastily.
    Although I think Hanyu is an OGM(not 2014, but 2018 :p) material.
     
  10. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    Just to clarify, Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou's worst three jump (as in lowest base value) passes at US Nationals were what exactly

    Kozuka had three jumps UR'd in his CoR FS and has fallen more than Chan in the GP circuit. As has Hanyu. I agree that if Hanyu skates clean and Chan skates like he did at his two events, Hanyu wins. I'd argue that if Hanyu skates like he did at his two events, it's certainly not a rout as you suggest.

    Anyway, I'd argue that pinky's comment is a pitch perfect example of what a Chan naysayer postulates.
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    I actually like Chan's skating, and if he skates clean, I think he probably should win. I just take issue with his scores and placements when he makes loads of mistakes. A score like what he got at COR should be reserved for a phenomenal skate by a great skater, Chan is a great skater sure, but that was not a phenomenal skate, not with all those doubles. His GOE also confuses me, when the quads and 3a work, those jumps deserve +2s yes, but the rest of his jumps don't seem that spectacular to me, and while he's a good spinner, he's not a phenomenal one like his GOEs would suggest. For example, Hanyu IS a phenomenal spinner but his scores don't reflect that as his GOEs are about the same as Chan's, who is merely one of the better spinners. Plus others are ambitious content, sure Patrick tries 2 quads, but only one 3a which he usually ends up doubling, others are trying 2 quads and two 3as, or Javi 3 quads and one 3a. It just seems like Patrick's advantage over the others should be eaten up more quickly by mistakes than results would indicate.
     
  12. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

    2,701
    287
    83
    Oh poor me, if I can only like skaters who skate clean, then I will have no favourites because NONE of my favourite skaters have skated 'clean' in all their competitions.:(
     
  13. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    Just so we're clear, pinky, I voted for Hanyu. I just take issue with you taking Chan to task for his inconsistent skating when you gave Hanyu and Kozuka a free ride - you can't argue Hanyu's the representative for "clean" skating when he's fallen on three jumps, a spin and a choreo sequence (you did take Takahashi to task as well, so it's not as if it was just a dismissal of Chan).
     
  14. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

    1,253
    211
    63
    Yes indeed. And when the facts clearly contradict them, they try to pass their opinions for facts such as "His jumps don't seem that spectacular to ME = he is definitely held up on the GOEs."

    How about "Why do the judges always give the highest mark to Chan on SS? Skater X's skating skills are so much more exciting than Chan's. Chan is overscored even on SS."

    Just trying to help.;)
     
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    I think Chan's SS marks are fair and better than the rest of the field. He also has very difficult transitions in his programs. It's the other components I feel he gets held up in, as those are the ones that can really vary with an "off" performance, but for Chan, they don't really, or the variance is from incredibly high to very, very high, even if he splats all over this place.

    Kozuka last season was very inconsistent, or consistently disappointing, I will admit that. But this season he seems to have found more consistency. Hanyu I know has had issues too. Basically what I was trying to say, is that I could see Kozuka or Hanyu skating clean here based on what they've done so far this season, whereas for Patrick I don't see that happening, just cause it hardly ever happens and this season there have been a lot of changes and he still appears to be in the "adjustment" phase. So if Hanyu or Kozuka skate clean and Chan skates like he normally does, I think those two *should* come out ahead. Or well, maybe I just expect Hanyu and Kozuka to skate cleaner than Chan (in my book doubling jumps doesn't constitute clean just FTR), and I don't think Chan should beat out those two if the difference in errors between them is moderate to large. Kozuka and Hanyu can get great PCS when they skate well, but like Fernandez those marks are very volatile depending on how they skate. While I think that's ok and warranted in some respects, it's more the consistency in which the judges do this that bothers me. Chan and Abbott get really high PCS regardless of how they skate, and often times it isn't very well, but other really good skaters like Hanyu, Kozuka, and Fernandez get harsh drops in PCS (up to like 10 points) for a rough skate.
     
  16. fscric

    fscric Active Member

    331
    85
    28
    I have a hard time understanding your logic here. Hanyu hasn't skated a clean FS, and Kozuka's SA FS has an underrotation call (unless you only considers doubling jumps as unclean but underrotation is clean).
     
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    13,704
    787
    113
    Very true, if one were to believe Chan's scores as being legitimate one would have to believe he is not merely the best mens skater ever, but the best ever in every single department of the sport- best quality jumps ever, best spins ever, best footwork ever, best skating skills ever (the last 2 the only ones that could plausibly be argued), best musical interpretation ever, best performer ever, most elegant and polished skater ever, more charismatic. Hence his 4 or 5 fall margins he has had the last 2 years over anyone else, and why despite being a bigger splatter than Sasha Cohen he has been almost unbeaten that whole time. :lol:
     
  18. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    And had you said this, I wouldn't have said anything. Well articulated.
     
  19. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    I realize this. I just could see one or both of them pulling out a clean or almost clean FS at the GPF, and for Chan, I think if that is going to happen at all this season, it won't be until later, like 4CC or Worlds. It's more the upward ascent, Kozuka and Hanyu have both shown the ability to skate really well early in the season before, whereas Patrick usually builds over the season. For this season especially, with all the changes and his quad not as consistent as usual, I doubt he'll skate clean here, hence why I think he is not the run away winner. Though of course if he does manage to skate clean, he likely will win, by a large margin unless the other guys skate out of their skin as well.
     
  20. NMURA

    NMURA Member

    408
    24
    18
    It's not meaningful to argue how Chan is "best" or "good". Since it's rather obvious that the judges are favoring Hanyu in this season, Chan can't afford many mistakes. IMO, there are only two past competitions that Chan can possibly beat Hanyu(NHK). 2011 worlds and 2012 four continents. I'm confident that anything other than those are not enough. If Hanyu stands on his feet to the last of FS, probably Chan needs to skate better than 2012 four continents.
     
  21. professordeb

    professordeb Well-Known Member

    3,818
    414
    83
    Chan doubles his jumps and *some* people say "not clean, not clean". Judges disagree and give him positive GOE for a lower based jump.
    Chan puts a hand down and *some* people say "not clean, overmarked" even though the judges dinged him for the "mistake".
    Chan falls and *some* people say "not clean, overmarked, reduce those PCS marks" even though the rest of his program may have been sparkling clean.

    However, let another skater do any of the above and they get a free pass by *some* who give reasons why deductions *shouldn't* be applied to said skater.

    Hmmmm.

    Chan gets better as the season goes on -- no disagreement there. However, if you take a look at what he is capable of scoring should he go clean, I still think he comes out on top.

    Here's how he's done thus far and what he is capable of scoring
    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD]SC -- Short
    TES: 39.81
    PCS: 37.63
    TOT: 77.44[/TD]
    [TD]CoR -- Short
    TES: 41.62
    PCS: 43.82
    TOT: 85.44[/TD]
    [TD]Possible -- Short
    TES: 51.32
    PCS: 46.25
    TOT: 97.57[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]SC -- Free
    TES: 75.13
    PCS: 86.78
    FALL -1
    TOT: 160.91[/TD]
    [TD]CoR -- Free
    TES: 84.21
    PCS: 92.70
    TOT: 176.91[/TD]
    [TD]Possible -- Free
    TES: 96.69
    PCS: 93.14
    TOT: 189.83[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Skate Canada Total
    238.35[/TD]
    [TD]CoR TOTAL
    262.35[/TD]
    [TD]POSSIBLE TOTAL
    287.40[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    So between SC and CoR he increased his short by 8, his free by 16 and his overall total by 24 and he still left a bunch of points on the table at CoR. In the short alone he lost a bunch with his 4T/1T giving him a lower base AND a GOE of -3; he got a level 3 in three elements.
    In his free, two of his jumps ended up being doubles instead of triples and considering they came in the second half of his program, he left over 11 possible points there (if I read the chart correctly -- feel free to tell me if I messed up again :D ).

    Will Chan skate cleanly at the GPF? Difficult to say cause I would think he's aiming to peak at World's. However, given how much he left on the table at CoR and believing that he is likely to have better skates at the GPF (more mileage on his programs), I think it would be fair to say his TES & PCS will likely see an increase. Do I think that he'll hit those numbers I posted as possible -- not likely at the GPF but maybe World's. All things considered, I still think Chan is the skater to beat in this comp.
     
  22. NMURA

    NMURA Member

    408
    24
    18
    Chan has no clean SP after 2011 worlds (save Chanadian nationals), doesn't he? He tends to skate well when he knows the judges are on his side and feels no pressure. I guess he had NO pressure at COR even before the SP. He usually skates poorly in Japan because he knows he's not the favorite there (both judges and audiences). In Sochi... let's see how he handles his nerves after Hanyu's SP. And if the judges are actually favoring Hanyu as I predict, Chan can't expect very generous PCS before Hanyu's FS. That is one thing the judges have learned at SA.
     
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,669
    352
    83
    3 of Chan's jumps ended up becoming doubles at COR, the loop, the axel, and the sal in combo. The 3-jump combo is intended to end with a 3s not a 2s. That gives him more points he could make up, but also contributes to why I feel he was overmarked at COR. He gave up a lot of points with those 3 doubles, and his score was still massive.
     
  24. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    Wouldn't the judges have been more on his side at Skate Canada 2012 as opposed to CoR? Certainly the audience would be more on his side in Canada than Russia.
     
  25. fscric

    fscric Active Member

    331
    85
    28
    Proustable, so right! Isn't it quite comical to say Patrick had NO pressure at COR when he was second in SC and if he didn't skate well enough he's in danger of not qualifying for GPF?! Besides, I've always read on the forum that Patrick is not so well received in Russia so how did anyone come to the conclusion that Patrick felt no pressure at COR is beyond me.

    Anyway, if the judges are so ready to crown Hanyu the winner, so be it, like Patrick said, it's just figure skating, it's not the end of the world.
     
  26. NMURA

    NMURA Member

    408
    24
    18
    No doubt chan had MORE pressure at SC. Fernandez scored 85+ before Chan. While the score to beat was only 76 at COR.
     
  27. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    NMURA, you operate at a logical level far removed from my own.
     
  28. The Accordion

    The Accordion Well-Known Member

    3,460
    900
    113
    I just DON'T KNOW how to answer this poll! So instead I will ask questions

    Will Chan follow his usual curve of getting better as the season goes at a similar rate? Or will the changes in choreographers and coach OR having 2 new programs change that curve? Are people right about his not having a technical coach taking its toll - and therefore he will continue to have issues technically? Or is he right to work on his artistry first and foremost and spend some time with technical coaching - and things will be falling into place by the GPF?

    Will Hanyu believe in the new Hanyu who can perform well in both portions of the competition? And if he does - how much effect will his asthma / endurance issues have? Will his crazy short take him far enough ahead that the others don't catch him in the long even if he doesn't win it:? Will he still get the same sky high marks next to the World's top men?

    Will Fernandez be Skate Canada Fernandez - or will he be NHK Fernandez? Will he doubt himself because of his last competition or will the pressure be off because of it? Will the judges keep his PCS down even if he does have a stellar competition?

    Will Machida take advantage of the pressure/ focus being on everyone else and sneak in as the dark horse?

    Will the judges up the PCS for Kozuka to where so many think they should be? Even if the judges are willing - will he skate to his potential or hold back?

    How will Takahashi's quads be? Will his programs have grown into the performance wonders that Takahashi programs can be? If so - will the judges see that and reward them accordingly? Will his jump landings be a bit eeked out? If so - will the judges recognize that in their GOE?

    With all these men together - where will all their PCS fall with the judges seeing them all back to back? Will the judges go with old patterns/perceptions or will what they see on the ice make a new world of PCS? Somewhere in between?

    How will everyone handle the pressure? If they all make mistakes will Chan's PCS hold him up? Will Hanyu's short hold him up?

    Inquiring minds want to know. And the prediction contest is a beast!
     
  29. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

    8,231
    1,287
    113
    I prefer Chan or Fernandez, but I think it is Hanyu's to loose because he is skating very well and consistently executes his content.
     
  30. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

    2,701
    287
    83
    :lol:

    :respec:
    Predictions are not absolute. There are too many variables involved. We can only GUESS given present circumstances. Anyway, personally, I never take polls seriously .. it is always in the name of fun when I participate. :)