Who will medal at Junior Worlds Men

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Feb 8, 2013.

Who will medal

  1. Joshua Farris

    67 vote(s)
    70.5%
  2. Ryuju Hino

    13 vote(s)
    13.7%
  3. Shotaro Omori

    5 vote(s)
    5.3%
  4. Jin Boyang

    6 vote(s)
    6.3%
  5. Alexander Samarin

    6 vote(s)
    6.3%
  6. Jason Brown

    48 vote(s)
    50.5%
  7. Soma Uno

    2 vote(s)
    2.1%
  8. Han Yan

    76 vote(s)
    80.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Junior Worlds will be pretty competitive again this season

    will Han Yan return to Junior Worlds after 4CC ? will he be able to defend his title
    will Farris finally win Junior Worlds and Jason brown land a consistent 3A at international competitions
     
  2. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    :eek: at Yan's score at 4CC, what a debut !
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I would guess, Han Yan wins again, Joshua Farris is 2nd again, and 3rd place will be a fight between Brown, Hino, and Jin (if he goes for two 4T and two 3a in his FS again! :eek:), with Omori and Kolyada as potential spoilers.
     
  4. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    and Yna just won bronze at his 4CC debut :cheer2:,
    he might opt to go seniors though ?
     
  5. misskarne

    misskarne #408

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    Don't think it's his choice to make. The politics of the Chinese fed might come into play. IMO they're nuts if they don't send him, how many places does China have for Worlds?

    (But then IMO I thought they were nuts for not making him a Senior this year.)
     
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    China has just one spot for Worlds. Yan beat Song at 4CC, but not by such a huge margin, and Song beat Han at Nationals so I assume the teams will stay as is meaning Yan will go to JW and Song Worlds.

    Anyways, Yan is a phenomenal jumper, but the fact that the junior men can't try a quad in the SP and that his current FS layout has just one 4t and one 3a makes the title a little more open for others I think. His PCS will be among the best in the event too, but likely not as high as he got a 4CC where scores are generally pretty generous/inflated and he was skating as a senior. Still though, the main contenders are likely Yan and Farris, but I feel like there is the potential for someone else to upset, I'm just not entirely sure who. Does Hino have a quad? He looked much improved at JGPF. Brown with the strength of his spins and comparable PCS to Yan & Farris could maybe win if he hits his axels cleanly, but he might need those two to make mistakes. Kolyada from Russia had a score of 227 from JN so could also be in the mix. Maybe Omori too, he was so good in the SP at Nationals.
     
  7. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Song's performance and score are satisfactory enough for the Chinese federation. Yan's role was just to give Song a little pressure to step up. They never decide who goes to worlds at 4CC. At 2011 4CC, Song was the 3rd among the Chinese men, and in last year, he finished behind Guan. Yet he was sent to worlds as if it was a done deal.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2013
  8. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Han Yan is a incredible jumper but he still lacks polish and shouldn't beat someone like Jason Brown on PCS even with those jumps. In fact Farris should get at least as high a PCS score as Yan.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2013
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Last year Brown, Farris, and Yan all got virtually equal PCS in both SP and FS so I expect that should be the case this time around as well, unless any of them skate an absolute blinder or bombs badly. Congrats to Yan on his bronze medal at 4CC! This should give him a good confidence boost going into the event.
     
  10. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Earlier this season people were saying Yan Han wouldn't get 4CC because of Chinese politics or whatever, yet here he is, getting bronze medal and all.

    I don't know if Yan Han will get worlds or not. But he isn't the national champ right? Sending Nan Song will be like US sending Miner to worlds despite finishing behind Dornbush at 4cc.

    etA: Going back to check the results, Yan Han finished ahead of Song in both phases by 3-4 points, but Song also did pretty well, so it's not a robbery to send Song to worlds, imho
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2013
  11. whispering

    whispering Member

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    Song beat Yan at Nationals because Song got higher PCS from the Chinese Judges,as always.But the result of 4cc shows that Yan can beat Song on PCS easily in the international competitions.And what the Chinese fed considering right now is who is more likely to get 2 spots for China, so I don't think Song's going to world is a done deal.
     
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Han Yan is better than Song when they are both at their best, but consistency also needs to be considered. Han Yan did not even qualify for the JGPF because he bombed one of his events so badly. I believe he was sick then, but it seems like he often falls ill, so regardless of the cause, consistency is a concern. Song isn't always perfect either and his marks seem to suffer more than Yan's when he isn't, but I don't worry about Song having a meltdown at Worlds whereas with Yan it could happen. But again, if the goal is 2 spots, Yan has better odds, and if he goes and then doesn't deliver, it just means one spot for China so it won't really matter. Placing in the top 10 will be a tall order for Song anyways, so it's a question of risk-to-reward I suppose.
     
  13. zgr4088

    zgr4088 New Member

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    The reason Han Yan bombed his JGP events is he attended three competitions in three consecutive weeks.
    Sept. 20-21 Chinese national Grand Prix, Sept. 26 – 29 JGP Slovenia, October 4-7, 2012 JGP. And he only bombed JGP Slovenia. Not too bad actually.
    The Chinese federation and Han Yan himself didn't take the JGP events seriously because before this season he grabbed all the gold medals in all the JGP events he attended.

    It is time for Han Yan to move up to senior level. Senior competitions would give him more motivation. I read one article says Han Yan's bad JGP experience was because he felt upset and frustrated for not getting senior GP assignments. To some extent, it is true.

    I'm very glad to see a highly focused and motivated Han Yan in 4cc. Hope he can attend the world championships. China needs two spots for men's events.
     
  14. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

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    Farris
     
  15. Gliding on ice

    Gliding on ice New Member

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    Han Yan's bad JGP experience had nothing to do with him being upset about not getting senior GP assignments.

    Han Yan had a shattering fall doing 4T in his long program at Slovenia, and just couldn't really recover after that (Actually, the same thing happened during his LP at 4CC, and I was just glad that he was able to fight through this time). Since the Chinese Fed usually doesn't send physicians/therapists to go with their teams for junior GP events, Yan had to be on his own for that week before his next JGP assignment in Croatia.

    But I agree with you that Han Yan is China's best bet to getting 2 spots.
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree that Yan has better odds of getting 2 spots, and that Jin and Zhang are likely to get 3 spots for China at JW even without Yan being there, but sending Yan to Worlds means Song's season ends now and he doesn't have a chance to get more WS points, whereas if Song goes to Worlds, Han can still go to JW, and then they both get another event can earn more WS points. Because Yan's age makes him eligible for both Worlds and JW, but Song is too old for JW, I guess sending Yan to JW is the best way to keep them both content and raise their ISU ranking points as much as possible. But if Song goes, doesn't get 2 spots for the Olympics, and then Yan outperforms him next season, his WS won't matter much because Yan would be going to Olympics and Worlds instead of him. I'm not sure what China will do.

    Anyways I think Farris can win too if he delivers. His FS at Nationals was very good and garnered him a really high TES mark despite the fall on the 4t (and two edge calls, a lvl3 spin, and lvl2 footwork! - I assume he'll be changing that second 3f to a 3lz anyway as that was what he was attempting in his other comps before Nationals). But Yan obviously is formidable competition and Brown with 3 3axels could certainly put up high marks as well. This is actually quite a strong field.
     
  17. zgr4088

    zgr4088 New Member

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    Only one isu championship counts for world ranking per season. Both Yan and Song have earned enough points at 4cc. Yan has to finish before 6th at worlds to match his 4cc points.JWC doesnt help at all
     
  18. zgr4088

    zgr4088 New Member

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    I suppose Chinese federation will send Yan to the world if they would like to consider him for Sochi. Not too many big events left for Yan to gain experience
     
  19. misskarne

    misskarne #408

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    The poll results so far seem to indicate that people expect to see the same podium as last year, but maybe in a different order. ;)

    Here are last year's scores, for those interested:

    1. Yan Han (is his first name Han or Yan? I'm so confused.) 222.45 (SP: 74.88, LP: 147.57)
    2. Joshua Farris 221.97 (SP: 75.43, LP: 146.54)
    3. Jason Brown 214.90 (SP: 70.20, LP: 144.70)

    Denis Ten (who is now age ineligible) was 4th with 208.20.

    So it was pretty close between Farris and Han Yan last year, only half a point. Han Yan did a 4T in the LP last year, whereas Farris did not. Brown topped the PCS score list. There were no falls in the top three or major mistakes (hand down etc).

    All three have, of course, made major improvement since then, so it really could be anything. Farris is now landing quads (or at least rotating them), so Han Yan no longer has that advantage, but IMO Han Yan's quality of movement has improved greatly, which should boost his PCS. Brown is now landing/trying the 3A on a regular basis, which may also result in a PCS boost, though his were already the highest of the three.

    In terms of the other skaters who will be in the mix, Keiji Tanaka was 7th (189.86), Ryuju Hino was 9th (181.34), and Shoma Uno was 10th (175.92). I didn't see if Zhan Bush was on the entry list for Russia but he was 5th (196.06).

    Omori of course is only first-year age eligible, Kovtun did not compete last year and is likely not going this year (because of the Russian Cup final), Boyang Jin also did not compete at last year's Junior Worlds (the other Chinese man was Zhang He, 6th, 193.97).
     
  20. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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  21. zgr4088

    zgr4088 New Member

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    First name is Han. But in Chinese, Family name goes first
     
  22. misskarne

    misskarne #408

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    Thanks guys. Just seeing it written two different ways confused me!

    EDIT:

    It's also worth noting that Maxim Kovtun is listed as an alternate for Russia. I assume this is so that if, for some reason, the skate-off goes badly for him and he isn't sent to SW, they can switch him to JW. If that happened, it would change the complexion of the men's event.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
  23. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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  24. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I'm so excited Uno gets to compete, his skating is so awesome and I love love his FS this season! He really does have some Dai quality to his skating :swoon:

    And yes Kolyada had a very high score at Junior Nationals and could certainly be a spoiler, when the poll was made the Russian team may not have been finalized yet or something, also he hasn't competed internationally this season yet, or at least not on the JGP - he had one B comp, so I guess he's a bit unknown? But certainly the ability and jumps are all there.
     
  25. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    Keiji Tanaka has withdrawn. Shoma Uno is replacing him.
     
  26. misskarne

    misskarne #408

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    Han Yan has disappeared from the entry list as of today. My guess is that he's going to SW instead of JW.

    If that's so, Joshua Farris has immediately become the favourite to win, IMO.
     
  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Unless Kovtun goes now that Menshov won Russian Cup Finals? I'm uncertain what's happening there, but in the case Menshov goes to Worlds, Kovtun might replace Samarin or Kolyada in which case he'd be a favorite to win as well. If Han Yan is definitely out and Kovtun doesn't wind up competing either, then yes, Farris is the favorite, but it also leaves the door open for Brown and Hino to do very well and secure themselves a medal/possible win.
     
  28. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

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    I think Brown can beat Farris if he nails the 3A. He should have higher PCS. Anyway, I think both are the future of American skating
     
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think PCS of Jason vs. Joshua is a toss up, it should be comparable, and if an edge is given to one over the other it will likely go in favor of whoever skates cleaner. I think if Josh were to nail all his 3a and the 4t though, he would win. Unless Kovtun winds up competing and nails two 4t and all his 3a (I think both of his in the FS are in the bonus section :eek:), then I think he'd take it. Should be interesting to watch. I wonder if Jin will try for two 3a and two 4t in his FS again like at JGPF? If he does and pulls it off he could be a podium spoiler.