Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Oct 30, 2011.
I think we have enough info to say who the contendors will be now-
Seems pretty clear it will be Volosozhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy, Sui & Han, Zhang & Zhang, Duhamel & Radford, and Kavaguti & Smirnov, now that Bazarova & Larionov are already almost out of it with their poor Skate America result.
I think V/T, Z/Z and S/S will almost definitely be there, and even though K/S are still to show their programs at the GP circuit, they have enough skills and international reputation to make the GPF as well, IMO. I also picked S/H and D/R, though I'm not so sure about them. S/H were good at Skate Canada, but they are very young and may have a meltdown due to lack of experience. However, their other GP is CoC, and they will probably feel comfortable skating at home. As for D/R, I picked them just because they don't seem to have much competition at TEB, and they have a huge chance of finishing second after V/T, while MT/M are definitely going to have a hard time at CoC - I think it will be extremely difficult for them even to make a podium with Z/Z, S/H and K/S around.
I only voted for three yet.. Volosozhar/Trankov, and Savchenko/Szolkowy are a no-brainer. I expect to see the Zhangs there too. I'm guessing Kavaguti/Smirnov are going to make it too, but since I haven't seen them, I can't really say for sure. For the last two spots, I'm mostly torn between Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Duhamel/Radford, and Sui/Han.. while I'd like to see both Canadian teams make it I'm not sure if they will. Don't think Takahashi/Tran or Berton/Hotarek will be there, and Bazarova/Larionov and Denney/Coughlin only have an 'outside' shot. Haven't seen Evora/Ladwig, but I think they only have an outside shot too.
The only three that will have no trouble getting in are S/S, V/T and K/S.
I think the rest of the three spots will be fought over between Z/Z, S/H D/R, MT/M.
Sorry to say D/C, T/T, B/L and I/M are out of it and even though I haven't seen E/L this season. I have them in 5th in China and 4th in France so I doubt they'll make it, but again I haven't seen them.
I have the same lineup. Unless D/R bomb without home field advantage, in that case I still give the last place to the other Canadian team.
K&S from what I recall always have a slow start to their season so I don't know if they are a given for the GPF. I picked M-T&M for that reason. (I just simply like them better than D&R and for no other reason...lol!!)
K/S have medaled at every Grand Prix competition they have entered (even B competitions like Coupe de Nice) so I have no doubt they won't get at least silvers in all three competitions. They have made it to the GPF all three years they could where they finished fifth all three years. Even last year when they only had one competition at the Cup of Russia, they won the gold. If that's a slow start, I think they'll take it.
They should win gold in China unless an element is not counted like a lift or something, they should have no trouble especially since they are keeping their long program.
Japan might me harder since it's back-to-back but Yuko is home and the traveling is not that bad.
I agree that they should win in China, but with them competing on Z/Z and S/H's home ice, I feel that if they make a small mistake the judges will take that and rush to put them in 3rd place
I voted for S/S, K/S, Z/Z, S/H, V/T but for the sixth spot I really don't know. Seems like it is a tie on one the Canadian teams based on the poll. I just threw a vote to B/L but MT/M could go again.
I don't know, even at Chinese Nationals Z/Z and S/H received 183.88 and 177.56 respectively and on the GP they scored 178.66 for Z/Z and 180.82 for S/H.
At the COR last year after all the injuries and time off K/S got 182.70 and a 7+ point lift wasn't even counted. They would have to have to mess up big time and the rest would have to be flawless.
Even if they bomb and get 8th, they are a lock for the other two silvers and China would only be a practice competition for them.
Those are my predictions too.