Who will make GPF in DANCE?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Oct 30, 2011.

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Who will make GPF?

Poll closed Nov 19, 2011.
  1. Davis/White

    95.8%
  2. Shibutani/Shibutani

    85.7%
  3. Virtue/Moir

    95.2%
  4. Pechalat/Bourzat

    79.2%
  5. Capellini/LaNotte

    31.0%
  6. Bobrova/Soloviev

    38.1%
  7. Ilinykh/Katsalapov

    21.4%
  8. Weaver/Poje

    75.6%
  9. Riazanova/Tkachenko

    3.0%
  10. Tobias/Stagniunas

    1.8%
  11. Pushkash/Guerriero

    1.2%
  12. Zhiganshina/Gazsi

    1.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    OK just pairs and dance today- too many contendors in singles right now to make a sensible poll with all contendors.
  2. DinDonShamu

    DinDonShamu New Member

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    hoops how come I only voted for 5 ... boooo :lol:
  3. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov New Member

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    I only voted for 5 as well but I did that on purpose. I think either Shibutani's or I&K could be the sixth couple depending on their programs and how well they are skated.

    I chose V&M, D&W, P&B, B&S and W&P as the five. Of course W&P haven't skated their FD yet. Also it bears watching how quickly Fabian recovers; I'm hoping P&B don't have to miss Bompard as well.
  4. Really

    Really No longer just a "well-known member" Yay!

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    I picked 4 because I don't know enough about the others...
  5. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    My predictions are the followings:

    1. D/W 30 points (1st at SA = 15 points; 1st at CoR = 15 points);
    1. V/M 30 points (1st at SC = 15 points; 1st at TEB = 15 points);
    3. the Shibs 28 points (1st at CoR = 15 points; 2nd at NHK = 13 points);
    3. W/P 28 points (2nd at SC = 13 points; 1st at NHK = 15 points);
    5. P/B 26 points (2nd at SA = 13 points; 2nd at TEB = 13 points);
    6. Any of the 3 Russian teams - see my rationale below.

    I chose V/M, D/W, P/B, S/S, W/P, and R/T. To me the only question is which Russian team among three, that occupies the sixth and the last spot. Another possibility for the last spot is C/L of Italy, based on how well they skated at SC. After SD programs at SA, they are sitting on the 3rd place. However, they tend to lose ground to other teams after FD due primarily to lack of stamina in the early season. So I am not surpirsed that R/T wins the bronze medal at SC especially since their FD is superb. So R/T get 11 points.

    V/M and D/W are givens. Those two teams are in the league of their own. The only challenge comes from each others' team. So V/M will medal both at SC and TEB. D/W medal at SA and CoR. That's total of 30 points each.

    The Shibs are seaded at CoC and NHK Trophy - those are where predictions get fun.

    Based on programs I saw, only BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV could potentially threaten the Shibs' first place finish at CoC. However, B/S' programs I saw at Russian testing sessions in September were uninspiring. Their SD in particular did not provide the Latin feel at all; I would not be surprised that they were advised to change their SD, which would mean less time for them to prepare. The Shibs already debuted their programs at Finlandia where they placed the second after V/M. The following week the Shibs went to Harvard and skated for Evening with champions. Hence, preparation advantage also goes to the Shibs over B/S. It means B/S likely to earn 13 points.

    At NHK trophy, teams that potentially challenge the Shibs are W/P and I/K. I rank technical proficiency among three teams as:
    1. the Shibs;
    2. W/P;
    3. I/K.
    The shibs are the youngest, but watching SA and SC ice dance competitions helped me appreciate just how technically superior the Shibs are.

    However, the Shibs' young age and even younger appearance are the inevitable disadvantage for presentation. Hece the rankings as:
    1. W/P;
    2. I/K;
    3. the Shibs.

    Barring disaster, e.g., wardrobe malfunction, fall, I predict that the placement to be:
    1. W/P;
    2. the Shibs;
    3. I/K (11 points)

    It means the Shibs have the total of 28 points, and W/P, assuming that they placed the second at SC, also earn 28 points.

    The fifth slot is P/B, who had already placed second at SA; they are likely to place second again at TEB, after V/M. It means P/B will have 26 points.

    The last slot: After the first events, three Russian teams earn:
    R/T (11 points);
    B/S (13 points);
    I/K (11 points).

    I/K is due to skate at TEB where she will likely to place the 3rd again, after V/M & P/B, meaning I/K earn the total of 22 points.

    Both R/T & B/S are scheduled to skate at the last event at their home country in which probably D/W is the winner and P/W to be the silver medalists. Hence, if B/S skate better than R/T, B/S will be the last slot recipients. However, if R/T wins over B/S, the math turns out to be:

    R/T 22 points (3rd=11 points at SC and 3rd=11 points at CoR);
    B/S 22 points (2nd=13 points at CoC and 4th=9 points);
    I/K 22 points (3rd=11 points at CoC and 3rd=11 points at TEB. :eek::eek:

    In the above scenario, the tie braker will be the highest total points among the couples.
  6. Tak

    Tak Well-Known Member

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    Wow - a lot of effort went into that post :cool: - and I can see your point. I'd love to see a 3 way tie.

    My picks were totally gut-instinct w/o a lot of serious thought - but I picked

    V/M, D/W, P/B, S/S - who I thought were all more or less a lock [barring some disaster]. Of the others I thought W/P and B/S probably had the best chance of making it - due to their placements at Worlds.
  7. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Of course there are many ways to come to a right prediction ;)
  8. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    I should have waited until I saw B/S because I voted for C/L because I just saw them and they looked good. But V/M, D/W, are the locks. Then you have S/S and W/P. I would have thought P/B but now his health seems to be in question - they would be in between V/M D/W and S/S and W/P. I voted 6th in C/L - They have been there in the GPF before. Maybe B/S can get there.
  9. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    R&T will have to make up 7 points on C&L in the FD which will only happen if C&L have a meltdown on a major element.

    Eh, same could be said for the Shibs.

    But they are Shpilband, so I concur that they are the favorites at CoC.

    And holy crap is the bronze wide open at CoC. :eek:
  10. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Absolutely! But B&S look like a lock for the silver there to me, and Shibs for gold


    CoC

    At NHK, Shib & W&P for gold and silver in either order. I&K for 3rd.

    NHK

    V&M gold, P&B for their 2nd silver. C&L and I&K fight it out for bronze.

    TEB
    CoR is tricky, but R&T are looking no better than 4th at SC. At best that gives them 3&4 B&S have a 2nd I think at Coc, and no worse than 4th here. W&P for 2nd, D&W for 1st.



    COR
    And that leaves B&S for the 6th spot with 2 & 4 or 2 &3. I&k and C&L have no better than 3&3 and the 2nd spot is the tie breaker.
  11. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    I&K could do better than 3rd. They are the big question mark for me right now.

    I think like at worlds, the PCS between Shibs, W&P, B&S, and I&K this season will be close enough that it will come down to the levels and GOE, which admittedly the Shibs usually have the upper hand on. But if I&K can actually get the tech stuff done and their FD is decent I could see them taking silver or gold at NHK.
  12. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Not unless they improved a whole heck of a lot since Russian tests--which is possible.

    Just looking at the competition at their events, B&S have a significantly easier path than I&K.


    Furthermore, Shibs get to debut their stuff at CoC where the only competition is Bobrova & Soloviev-they have time to adjust levels before NHK. I&K have to debut at NHK, where there are not only Shibs & W&P, but also Z&G (whom I hope will have revamped their FD) and K/G-S who are pretty good, as are P&I provided they don't bomb as at SA. Under worst case, I&K could end up fourth.

    Certainly, a problem in the SD could be disastrous for them, as they could easily end up in the 2nd group, as did Hubbell&Donahue at SA (leading to them not medalling).
  13. zotza

    zotza Active Member

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    I wouldn't be sure about anyone except for D/W and V/M at this point.
    R/T with all that early domestic PR couldn't score more than 5 points ahead from junior P/G?Their SD marks were exactly 3 points than at Russian Cup,and I'm waiting to see what happens with their FD tonight.because if it's 3 points down again it's going to be really low.
    I wouldn't consider Shibs clear favourite for either CoC and NHK.Ok,they are the bronze medalists but how better are they going to score from Finlandia? V/M did 3 points more in their SD so that puts them around 62?No one can really know and it's not that the Shibs won that medal with the others being clean.Again,both Shibs and B/S won't have the home advantage W/P have in Canada.
    I/K are a question mark.If they show up like they were at the test skates it's not going to be good.And it seems that Morosov didn't want them to do Russian Cup before the GP because he wouldn't like to risk a bad performance there.Quite clever if you ask me.
    I expect C/L to reach the GPF,and medal at Europeans,but again,they will have to finish 3rd twice and wait to see if one of the teams with a difficult field falls behind in one of their events.
    At this point I'd have D/W ,V/M (the latter I love to pieces but it seems like they're losing their spark,hope I'm wrong),S/S,B/S,W/P and I'd dare say I/K.
    To me Shibs have the easiest assignments.Worst case scenario for them is two silvers.
  14. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Doris, slight correction - the tiebreaker in your scenario would be who had the highest placemenet - which would be B/S at CoC with silver.
  15. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    That was what I meant, but I didn't say so particularly well. :slinkaway
  16. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Now that Pechalat & Bourzat are out of it I predict the 3 World medalists, the top 2 Russian teams, and Weaver & Poje.
  17. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    :confused: Péchalat & Bourzat still have to compete at TEB.
  18. Elkmaria

    Elkmaria New Member

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    I thought and voted exactly the same way, and it was before reading your post, I swear :)
    I think that the Shibutanis may have the edge over I/K, since they are Worlds bronze medalists and may therefore get more 'reputation' points. But if I/K are strong enough, they have a good chance of beating S/S.
  19. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Sorry - I read points as skating points (ie, total scores) not ranking points.

    Last season, at NHK, I/K got hammered on levels, w/ five level two elements in their FD. Even the top teams struggle earning the levels on their first competition - V/M at Finlandia had three level twos across their two programs. I get the strategy of chosing a later event for their debut (more time to improve; knowledge that the first two events are going to the gold and silver medalists who are a cut above, as opposed to the Shibs who are beatable) but a tought technical caller could destroy I/K's chances.

    The FD in SC will be interesting for W/P - they usually fall behind there, but so do C/L, and the fact that W/P can spoil in their third event as well.
  20. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Well, I only picked four.. Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat, and Weaver/Poje. I'm on the fence about the others, especially since I haven't even seen the Shibutanis skate yet this season. I'm expecting they will make it based on last season, but who knows. Cappellini/Lanotte, Bobrova/Soloviev, and Ilinykh/Katsalapov, who I also haven't seen, are distinct possibilities. I'm also watching Tobias/Stagniunas after their surprise medal at Skate America. I'm pretty sure Pushkash/Guerreiro and Zhiganshina/Gaszi are out of the running, and I don't expect to see Riazanova/Tkachenko make it either.
  21. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry I forgot this was the year they were going back to 3 assignments for some skaters. The Shibutanis have incredibly easy assignments. They have a good shot to win both, but at worst they would be 2nd in both which would easily make it. It would take something catastrophic to not.
  22. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Ok, time to eat my own words...:p

    I initially predicted:
    1. D/W 30 points (1st at SA = 15 points; 1st at CoR = 15 points);
    1. V/M 30 points (1st at SC = 15 points; 1st at TEB = 15 points);
    3. the Shibs 28 points (1st at CoR = 15 points; 2nd at NHK = 13 points);
    3. W/P 28 points (2nd at SC = 13 points; 1st at NHK = 15 points);
    5. P/B 26 points (2nd at SA = 13 points; 2nd at TEB = 13 points);
    6. Any of the 3 Russian teams.

    My predictions for the first 5 teams still stand, but I now need to make two adjustments:

    1. My 6th slot prediction among 3 Russians teams was based on the premise that R/T wins the bronze medal at SC thereby earning 13 points there. It didn't happen. They did not even maintain the 4th place coming out of SD comp; they lost ground and ended up at the 5th place, thereby earning only 7 points.

    Unfortunately I was struck by just how slowly they skated compared to the top teams. They also had two point music deductions, which was disheartening, as their program was out there for a while. I really wish that they make a strong comeback. As for now, though, their prospect for making to the GPF is considerably dimmed, if not impossible.

    Decrease in R/T's fortune means the increase in B/S's fortune as Doris described in the previous page. B/S has a considerably easier path to the GPF; they may battle out the last slot with C/P.

    My second adjustment does not affect who would go to GPF; it has to do with the placement between W/P and the Shibs at NHK Trophy.

    My initial prediction at NHK was:
    1. W/P;
    2. the Shibs.

    I am no longer certain about the placement after watching W/P's performance at SD. The Shibs could win gold at NHK, though I still think it is a close call. The reason being that I have almost forgotten just how "accident prone" W/P were. I had to hold my breath a couple of times during W/P's FD performance.

    True, W/P are a smoking hot couple, but their striking good looks do not save themselves from stepped out twizzle sequence, and/or wobbly lift (at least they shouldn't :lol: but one never knows). If not for an outright deduction, they would certainly be punished for reduced GOEs. On the other hand, the Shibs are known for racking up positive GOEs. (Side note: ISU judging panels used the Shibs' skating video as a model for earning bonus/positive GOE points. This young couple's skating skills are considered that good.)

    And somebody better tell Kaitlyn to fix her "spaghetti strong" dress, which was kept coming down from one side of her shoulder during their FD. That was a "wardrobe malfunction waiting to happen." At their elite level of skating, no details should be unattended.

    That's it for now, though I have a strong suspicion that I have to come back again & again to eat my words...:rolleyes: oh, well...
  23. Pratfall

    Pratfall Active Member

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    :lol:

    Kaitlyn actually has a flesh coloured strap on that shoulder and the red 'strap' is extra and is sewn on to hang off the shoulder.

    And don't forget they've opted for best 2 out of 3.
  24. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    The strap - it maybe, but don't you think it may still be hazardous for accidentally being ripped off or something? :shuffle:

    As for skating three events, the GP rule dictates that you have to submit ahead of time the 2 out of 3 events that should be counted as official scores.

    W/P attend SC, NHK, and TEB. If I hazard a guess, W/P asked ISU to account SC and NHK as their official scores. Why? Their practice mates and the closest rivals, P/B also signed up for two overlapping events:
    SA, SC, & TEB.

    It is the coaching teams' responsibility to strategize and map out the best possible path for their team to the GPF. So, if I were W/P & P/B's mutual coaches (Krylova & Camerlenge), I would make two official scoring events of each team as:

    P/B = SA & TEB;
    W/P =SC & NHK.

    That way, each team get to maximize their own home court advantage. The fact that P/B withdrew from S/C (i know Fabian got afflicted with bronchitis, but still, they incurred monetary penality) also suggest that their remaining offcial score event is TEB.
  25. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    From the ISU Grand Prix Announcement:
  26. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Sylvia - thank you for correcting my misconception.

    Still, if those high ranking skater are allowed to pick the best two out of three, don't you think that that would give these players unfair advantage?

    For instance, I'm sure Paul/Islam would love to have an additional event to "re-do" their disastrous SD at SA. :confused:
  27. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    They need to be in the top 6 at worlds and they will get that chance next season.

    Those skaters get that additional event because they are the upper echelon of skaters; not many took advantage of it.
  28. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Yes, I understand these are the criteria for skating for three events and not many took advantage of it.

    I understand that the ISU went for enticing the "upper echelon" skaters with the hope of drawing larger audiences.

    Guess when monetary motive is stronger, it tramps the fairness, then. :rolleyes:
  29. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    It's not all about money for some teams; it's about getting to do as many competitions as they can. Some of the teams depending on their schedule of competitions (and other things I'm sure) can't go to Nebelhorn, Ondrej Nepela Memorial, Finlandia or Cup of Nice etc......

    So by the time some of the skaters meet up; some are competing for the first time and others have a few competitions under their belts already.

    Why should the top 6 who chose three events be punished because some skaters need a do-over? I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem if Paul/Islam a medal.
  30. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    ^ Perhaps I might not have made it clear. When I wrote about money, I referred to the monetary motives of ISU/GP organizers. Like higher ranking players presumably could attract larger audiences, thereby fattening the ISU bottomline.

    I am not sure what you mean by "Why should the top 6 who chose three events be punished because some skaters need a do-over? I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem if Paul/Islam a medal."

    How would teams who choose to skate 3 events be punished?

    When I mentioned that P/I wishing an additional event for a do-over, I was fully aware that they did not have that opportunity due to their lower world ranking.

    But that is precisely my point: To me the fairness factor comes in if three events options are available to all GP invitees.

    Another unfair factor is monetary concern. Top 6 teams, by virtue of being higher raking, mean that have more opportunities to earn prize money. It means less opportunities for lower ranking teams to earn prize money.

    Likewise, P/B, by having an option to skate at three events, and by having to sign up to three events, they are still potentially eligible to qualify for GPF even after withdrawing from their second event (SC); they have TEB to skate. This option is not available to lesser seaded and/or non-seaded skaters who are invited to two events. For them, if for whatever reason, they withdraw from one event, they are no longer eligible to earn enough points to qualify for GPF.

    Please understand that I am not begrudging that P/B could still skate one additional event. I am happy that they have one more fighting chance. I am, however, merely pointing out the option that they have but not others.
  31. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Another unfair advantage relates directly to monetary concern. The top 6 teams, by virtue of being the highest ranked teams, mean they have higher probability to earn prize money, and they have three opportunities to do so. This was one of the motives P/B stated as their reason for signing up for 3 events.

    It means that lower ranked teams have less opportunites to medal and earn prize money.

    P.S.: I apologize for being off-topic.
  32. Pratfall

    Pratfall Active Member

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    I agree that the GP set-up is inherently unfair ( especially to the skaters who don't get the chance to compete in the GP because of the reduced # of entries ).
    W/P feel that the more they can compete, the more they improve ( and I wonder if they might also feel that it's to their advantage to be seen as much as possible ,since before last year they were basically held out of the international scene.) You can't blame them for going for it, and hoping it doesn't backfire.

    I like the Shibs and C/L very much too,So I'm finding the GP really interesting.
  33. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Who else is going to pay for it? Would you be more or less likely to buy a ticket if it were Kemp/King or Savchenko/Szolkowy?

    Because you want the top six to get two events like the other teams who don’t skate nearly as well so they have a chance. Or skaters who do have a chance and mess up get another one. Instead of the top 6 skaters who really deserve it.

    So maybe they should give lower ranked skaters four events to see if they can get up to level of the top skaters?

    So who will pay for every skater at the senior level (who wants to) attend two competitions and who wants to see the 20th ranked skater at a Grand Prix even twice? Isn’t the Grand Prix supposed to the best of the best or close to it?

    Then the lesser ranked skaters need to go to the other competitions I said and earn points and experience so they can be on the top 6 the next season.

    P/B will take (depending on ISU rules) a huge hit financially for withdrawing. Was it anymore fair that Kavaguti and Smirnov withdrew from Skate Canada last year and although they won the Cup of Russia, they couldn't go the GPF even though they would have most certainly medaled? Of course it’s not fair, but those are the rules and I didn’t hear anyone skaters/fans who got to go to the GPF in their place.

    They have the options others don’t have because they have been 4th in the world for two years straight. I would rather see a few skaters have one more competition (as they have in the past) then have to sit though another skater who barely got the minimum points to enter.

    Maybe they should set it up so that all the ladies and pairs who are eligible go to Skate America and all the men and dancers who are eligible go to Skate Canada so everyone has a chance and so on; but who is footing the bill?
  34. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    I believe that the dispute between you and I comes down to the umbiguity of the GPF format. Is it a competition or exhibition/show skating?

    If it is a pure competition like nationals, giving multiple chance to skate to certain upper echelon skaters but not to others, like it is done at GPs, is out of question.

    On the other hand, show skatings are money making enterprise aiming to entertain audience. To maximize the money making purpose, you want to highlight the most popular skaters as much as, and as often as possible.

    I think we are having this discussion because the GP format is neither a pure competition nor the pure entertainment.

    I critisize the "unfairness" of the GP format because I come from the pure comepetition perspective; you seem to take into account the pragmatic aspect of skating, e.g., need for the federations to raise fund so that they could keep holding events.

    I don't think we settle what we have discussed as long as the GP format/structure attempt to be everything to everyone, that is, pretending to be a competition when its rules are not entirely consistent with a pure competition.

    P.S.: By the way, I can't wait to see CoC, so we can go on predicting the GPF candidates! ;)