Who should be considered the favourite for the 2018 Olympic Ladies title?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Oct 2, 2013.

?

Who should be considered the favourite for the 2018 Olympic Ladies title?

Poll closed Nov 2, 2013.
  1. Ashley Wagner

    3 vote(s)
    2.9%
  2. Kanako Murakami

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Gracie Gold

    11 vote(s)
    10.8%
  4. Li Zijun

    6 vote(s)
    5.9%
  5. Kaetlyn Osmond

    6 vote(s)
    5.9%
  6. Adelina Sotnikova

    4 vote(s)
    3.9%
  7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  8. Julia Lipnitskaya

    9 vote(s)
    8.8%
  9. Elena Radionova

    26 vote(s)
    25.5%
  10. Courtney Hicks

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  11. Somebody currently competing in the JGP (i.e. Edmunds, Medvedeva, Chen, Sakhanovich, etc)

    17 vote(s)
    16.7%
  12. Other/Unknown/Somebody currently off the radar, etc

    18 vote(s)
    17.6%
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    5,492
    Most of us have a view on who is likely to win the 2014 Olympic title in the Ladies competition. But what about the 2018 Olympics?

    Its likely that Mao Asada, Kim Yu-Na, Miki Ando, Carolina Kostner, Akiko Suzuki, etc will all retire, although it is possible that one or more of them may decide to carry on. However, just for the purposes of this poll, lets just assume hypothetically that they all do retire (there has been talk of Murakami retiring, but I am assuming for the purposes of this poll that she does not. I am also not sure what Ashley Wagner's intentions are, so I shall also assume that she carries on into her mid 20's as Kostner has done during this current quad). Who does that leave as the current favourite?

    Growth spurts and body changes will, as usual, take some out of the reckoning as time goes by. Its very possible that somebody currently unknown and off the radar, as it were, will emerge. Who for example would have predicted that Baiul, Lipinski, and Hughes would go on to win the title 4 years prior to winning their Olympic gold medals? On the other hand, the current favourites for the 2014 Olympic title are mostly skaters who fought it out for the 2010 title (i.e. Kim Yu-Na, Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, etc). Hence, its hard to tell how matters will pan out over the next 4 years as there are so many variables and unknown factors. Nevertheless, based upon current knowledge, who should be considered the favourite?
  2. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2010
    Messages:
    4,891
    For me it's Radionova. It's till too early to judge her true potential but I like what I'm seeing from her now. I also think Gracie Gold might become a heavy favorite by then.
  3. HVS

    HVS Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2011
    Messages:
    165
    Olympic 2018 in KOREA, oh well :lol:

    I voted for others, not much chance but anyway

    But Gold coule be the safe answer right now
  4. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    7,870
    Hmm . . . Remember Mao Asada at the 2005 Grand Prix Final . . .
  5. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2012
    Messages:
    2,113
    Definitely Adelina!....and Dandelion who would not be God's dandelion any more ;) Love them!
  6. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,270
    Out of the list provided, my hope is that Sotnikova, Osmond, and Tuktamysheva would be the 3 podium finishers in 2018. IF Wagner were to stick around, then I would also include her in that mix, but I have some doubt that she would desire to extend her career out another 4 years after this season. Maybe she would be one of those to take 2 seasons off and then come back in the pre-Olympic season to make another Olympic run; it's hard to say. Any 3 of those 4 skaters would make an excellent podium for me. I don't particularly care about or know very much about the skating of the other choices in the poll.
  7. AliasJohnDoe

    AliasJohnDoe Spin Alissa Spin!!!

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2004
    Messages:
    3,676
    Polina Edmunds!!!! :cheer:
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  8. koatcue

    koatcue New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    75
    Gracie, Elena, Julia
  9. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2012
    Messages:
    629
    Don't put your money on Russian babies, ever (well at least if their jump technique looks like Radionova's/Lipnitskaya's)! Just wait until they grow first
  10. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,324
    I would say most likely either someone who is junior now, or someone we dont even know of now. Out of the current up and coming Seniors- Li, Gold, Osmond, Sot, Tuk, Lip, Radianova, I really dont see an OGM winner amongst that group. Olympic Medalist possibly, someday a World Champion possibly/probably, but not an Olympic gold medalist. I dont think Murakami or Wagner will even be around by 2018.
  11. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2002
    Messages:
    4,356
    So hard to say. I think Elena and Serafima look the most complete of them now. But Gold and Chen have more solid jumps that will hold up over the years. And what of Anna Proklova, what gorgeous skating. It could totally be someone who hasn't hit our radar yet, but I think it's interesting to discuss those we already know. I agree Murakami will be long over-the-hill by the next Olympic cycle. And Zawadzki won't make a difference
  12. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    Trying to decide who will be the favorite in 2018 is beyond insane. Who even knows what skaters will make the US team for instance? I remember reading a article not long after the 2006 Olympics were over and they had Kimmie Meissner and Emily Hughes on the 2010 team partly because there were not a lot of topnotch girls besides those 2. The two girls who eventually made the team were only 13 years old at the time and were totally unknown. I will say there is much more depth in the US now than after the Torino Olympics. With Kwan and Sasha retiring the US was heading into a downturn which we are only coming out of now.
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2013
  13. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,346
    Julia Lipnitskaia will win.
  14. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2012
    Messages:
    694
    Radionova, someone we dont know, or a current junior. It will be one of those three options for sure. Could see any of Gold, Li, Osmond, Lipnitskaia on the 2018 podium, but none in gold spot unless it is a splatfest. I doubt Tuktamysheva or Sotnikova will be any factor by then.
  15. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2012
    Messages:
    694
    Yu Na Kim should be on the poll. While I know it is only 15% likely at most she would comeback unexpectedly for 2018, if she does she would probably be atleast 50% likely to win, especialy being on home ice. Even a 5% chance in total would be higher than most of the pretenders on this poll.
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,111
    I am surprised that Yu na kim is not on this poll, but Ashley Wagner is. I don't expect to see Ashley at the 2018 Olys, but I expect Yu na to be there, unless she is no longer in shape to compete. If she is competing and is in shape, she should be at least a co-favorite with whoever is dominating the field at that time.
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,324
    Kim has openly stated she plans to retire after this season. That doesnt mean she couldnt make a comeback, but by her own words she has no plans to compete until or for 2018.

    I agree even a supposably retired Kim is a far better poll option than a 25 year old Wagner (by 2018) and many of the others on the poll though. People like Wagner, Murakami, Osmond, many of the Russians are on no planet ever going to be an Olympic Champion, sorry. World medalist perhaps, but OGM, no way, it would be 10 times the upset Hughes's (the biggest OGM upset winner ever) was. I would put Asada on the poll (despite that she too plans to be retired) before many of those too.
  18. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,346
    Kim Yuna totally crushed the field like her Olympic victory in 2013 so she can win in 2018 no problem. Look at how sotnikova and tuktamisheva did compared to Yuna in 2013 and look what they were doing in 2011 and you can see how young contenders can vanish without a trace when they get to a worlds and not be a blip or factor.
  19. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    5,492
    1. Your absolutely correct in pointing out that Kim Yu-Na has stated that she plans to retire at the end of this season. She already has an Olympic gold medal (and could win a 2nd in Sochi) and by the time of the 2018 Olympics, she will 27 years of age. It is highly unlikely that she be competing at the 2018 Olympics.

    2. Poll options in an FSU poll are restricted to only 12. There is no point in including skaters who plan to retire and who are therefore highly unlikely to be competing, in such a poll. I purposely made this a poll consisting of those who are intending/likely to continue up to the 2018 Olympics, and prefaced it by excluding those who intend to retire. Its my view that poll sizes should be increased from 12 to 20, which would provide greater scope for including a greater number of variables. If there had been 20 options, then I probably would have included skaters such as Kim and Mao on the off chance that they change their mind and make a comeback. However, there are only 12 options and the whole premise of the poll is based upon a hypothetical assumption that those referred to in the original post do retire (i.e. the question then being who then would have the best chance of winning)

    3. It was a very borderline decision as to whether to include Ashley Wagner. I have not come across any statement by her on the subject of whether she plans to retire at the end of the season or not. If she does not make the Olympic podium in 2014, then she may very well decide to continue.

    4. With 12 poll options, the first 10 were selected on the basis that they are in my view the 10 senior skaters (although some are not eligible to compete at 2014 worlds and Olympics, they are eligible to compete in the senior grand prix) who are both (in combination) the most likely to continue and who have the best chance at the 2018 Olympics. Some undoubtedly have a better chance than others. I voted for Radionova. You, as always, have some very forthright views on the subject and state that some have no chance. Your entitled to your view. However, almost all of those included in the poll have attracted votes. Hence, others evidently disagree with you. Everybody is entitled to their opinion. The final two poll options were for those currently competing in the JGP and for others not included elsewhere (except the retirees referred to). Are the 12 poll options the perfect choice? Of course not. Put 100 people in a room and ask them to design a poll, and you will get 100 different results. You will only get a poll that everybody agrees upon in terms of poll options once in a blue moon. Whenever a poll appears in FSU, invariably somebody will post: "oh you missed out "x" and you missed out "Y". And why did you choose "Z"" And so on and so forth.

    A top 10 finish in a debut Worlds was extremely creditable for Sot and Tuk, especially given the fact that both struggled with growth issues last season. Tara Lipinski finished 15th in her first world championships and then won it the following year. Both Sot and Tuk appear to have put their growth spurts etc behind them, and I expect them to perform considerably better this season. I think both have excellent chances of winning world and Olympic medals in the years to come.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2013
  20. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    Yuna is not competing in 2018. To be honest i'm surprised that she's going to be in Sochi. It's obvious that she doesn't want to continue after this season so it will be a open field in 2018 for which i will be glad.
  21. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,104
    I think it'll be Radionova, unless something happens with puberty between now and then, or she quits skating.
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  22. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2011
    Messages:
    3,536
    Fumie Suguri. :)
  23. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    :lol:
  24. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    256
    I wonder whether Radionova will make a history(the first 2-time lady JWC) this season.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2013
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  25. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    Betting on these tiny Russian girls is foolish to say the least. Wasn't it just a slightly more then 2 years ago that everyone was hyping Adelina as the next Olympic champion? Now she may not even make the Russian team.
  26. Yunabot

    Yunabot New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2013
    Messages:
    19
    Karen Chen, Polina Edmunds, Alexandra PROKLOVA. There is your 2018 Podium. Gold? Hmmm, I will say Karen Chen.
    Dogs know what to do with polls.
  27. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2012
    Messages:
    694
    The special Olympics Gold (which she will become medically diagnosed to be eligible for if she is still trying to skate elite then).
  28. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    256
    Right.
    But I see from Radio a thing that I did not see from Sot, Tukt, Lip at their junior days. Specialness. (or phenom quality.)
  29. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2011
    Messages:
    1,473
    makes me think of who still will be around by then
    probably less than half from the polled :lol:
  30. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    Maybe but all that could change when she grows 3-4 inches and suddenly she can't rotate as fast. That's why older Senior skaters have trouble doing 3-3's there bodies changed and they aren't 70 lbs anymore. So i just take all these tiny Russian phenoms with a grain of salt and see where they are in 2-3 years.
  31. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,385
    Indeed, before age rules, I think basic skating test have to be more drastic ! lol
  32. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2002
    Messages:
    4,342
    My favourites are Osmond and Radionova. But Radionova is still so young and small and the way her jumps are, we can't really tell whether puberty will make thems stronger and higher or it will cause her to lose them. Love her skating to pieces, but it's too early to tell.
  33. pat decaro

    pat decaro New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    56
    Surprising that Radionova is getting more votes than the group of pominent juniors. Her age, body size, and jump scale considered, I think she's one of the more vulnerable to puberty monster.

    About Yuna Kim, it seems unlikely she will return for 2018.
  34. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,346
    Early signs are not good for Sotnikova who has competed recently. With the "3/3" combo she's doing going to be deduction central. But if you compare Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva's jumps and skating to the medalists or Li, Gold or Wagner or Osmond there was just a big letdown. Moreso from Liza in the SP. Where a jump and spin did not count and reflected all her SP problems and Sotnikova's poor SP and LP. Not so much in placement but in actual skating and jumping. With Tara in 1996 that was 6.0 and of course she was buried in the SP but was also far superior to Liza and Adelina but couldn't really show it in the standings because of 6.0.

    Yes and that turned out to be wrong but who is to say another Russian phenom will survive the move to seniors better than sotnikova did.
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2013
  35. altai_rose

    altai_rose Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
    Messages:
    2,514
    I agree about Radionova. She may grow too tall... I agree with t.mann though--she has the star quality that I really didn't see from Tuk and Lip, but Sotnikova still has star potential...

    My bet is on Alexandra Proklova. :D
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2013
  36. koatcue

    koatcue New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2011
    Messages:
    75
    Some Russian :p
  37. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

    Joined:
    May 23, 2012
    Messages:
    457
    To early to bet on anyone but

    I think Lipnitskaya has proven that she can still do all her jumps and spins after going through the major stages of puberty. I think she probably has the best chance of gold at this stage, but injuries will surely come and go within the next 4 years

    I do like the young Alexandra Proklova, i think she has great potential for a future world champion. She has the jumps of Radionova, the flexibility of lipnitskaya and she doesnt just wave her arms around everywhere to try a get components. But she hasnt gone through puberty so you never know what could happen

    I think Radionova will slowly fall behind, we can already see that she is having problems with 3F, and the usual 2A. I think after she finishes going through puberty she will face many injuries that could see her fall behind other russians

    I think ashley will have gone into the shadows of girls that are more talented than her.

    As there is still over 4 years till 2018 olympics, gracie could still be a threat. She will have had time to tweak techniques and maybe become consistent. However im not sure if her components will ever improve enough.

    Osmond is not a threat
  38. pat decaro

    pat decaro New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    56
    It's too early to tell, but I like Edmunds, Gold and Chen among the American ladies.

    There are several young Russians I like, but I think Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva won't be a factor by then. IMO, Lipnitskaia and Radionova also need to improve jump technique to remain a contender in 2018.
  39. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2012
    Messages:
    694
    Lipnitskaia and Radiaonova will be the women to beat by 2018, but Yu Na Kim will come back for that 3rd Olympic Gold and likely get it leaving the Russian babies with silver and bronze.
  40. JeffClair1979

    JeffClair1979 Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2009
    Messages:
    395
    It will be me, naturally. Needless to say, I'm way off the radar. But watch out! :p

    But seriously, I would think it would be Lipnitsaya, Radionova, Li, Chen or Gold. But some strange things happen in this sport, so only time will tell!