Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Dec 12, 2012.
And that's why Yuna is a legend and the other skaters are not. She's not playing it safe.
First of all, I love the programs that Carolina, Mao and Ashley are coming up with, I do think we're getting some extra artistry, intracacy, and performance level in exchange for the the somewhat lesser jump content. I thought Worlds was to be a close competition between these three and I didn't think I missed the lesser jump content.
But then YuNa debuted her programs, and I was reminded just how easy she made 3z-3t and 3F look, huge jumps with great flow and correct edges, effortlessly executed in SP and LP. I still think at this point Carolina/Mao/Ashley have more developed programs, more tailored to their particular music choices, and nuanced in the interpretation. But YuNa clearly still has everything that made her great...flowing edges, great flexibility, great speed and carriage, coverage of the rink. Her PCS will be great despite having less 'special' programs, her jumps are in a class by itself.
The others, despite wonderful programs, will have to rely on her mistakes if they want to win. Yuna had intentionally done easier spins at NRW, so that's some points she left on the table she'll likely take back by Worlds. I don't think it'd be so easy for Caro to add multiple lutzes/flips, for Mao to have lutzes/3axels or for Ashley to add 3-3s, and if they did, certainly not with the surety, consistency and quality of Yuna. Younger skaters like Liza, Gracie and Julia have the jumps, but they are miles away from Yuna in presentation, and deservedly should get much lower PCS.
After seeing NRW, I'm convinced it's YuNa's Worlds to lose. It's like she took us all back Vancouver 2010.
^ I think it's a little early to assert that Yu Na is in '09 - '10 form. While I think she is the favorite for a 2nd World title, I don't think that she's the sequined steamroller she was at Vancouver. Mao and Ashley are closer to her points-wise than Mao and Joannie were leading up to the 2010 Olympics.
Oh, I agree with you, like Yuna said, she's at 80%. But Mao isn't at 100% either, she had 3 triple axels in Vancouver, now she had neither 3A or any 3-3s. I don't think her improved artistry can make up for that, because Yuna can rack up the big PCS too. Carolina yet to prove she can deliver great skates with substantial jump content. I really admire all the improvements Ashley has made, but neither her skating skills or her jumps are at Yuna's level. So I still think this is YuNa's to lose.
But do you think Mao can have her 3A and 3-3s back in competition ? (serious question !)
^ Mao will do very well but w/o a 3x or 3-3's, I doubt she'll beat Yu Na if Yu Na is on.
No. Her jump content has been regressing, unfortunately, and she needs a lenient caller on her side. On the plus side, they have been giving her some greatly deserved +GOE on her footwork.
Carolina Kostner (just saw her "Bolero" the other day).
Never thought I'd say this, but imho the only one that can compete head on with Yuna Kim is Caro, jump for jump, move for move, but most importantly the *intangible*.
Carolina's jumps were far from perfect in that program. She did not land the 3Lz, and struggled with majority of her jumps. I don't see how she can beat Yu na based on that. If she improves and gets at least a 3Lz-2t combination, and lands most of her jumps, she may have a chance.
At this point I really don't think Mao can beat Yu na unless she gets her 3A back, and continues to improve her other jumps.
Does everyone feel that the run for the Worlds podium (at this point) will be a race among Yu Na, Mao, Ashley and Carolina??
Pretty much, but Ashley is the long shot of those 4 right now IMHO. I still have a feeling Ashley will get a medal though, atleast one of the 3 others (more likely Kostner or Asada) will have enough problems, and she will have found a way through determination to have improved enough since the fall (upping spin levels or something else) to capatilize. I dont think she is a mortal lock but will be surprised if Kim doesnt win. I dont think Wagner can win this year, Asada and Kostner are the other two with an outside of winning and beating Kim. I dont think Wagner can beat Kim this year, even if Kim makes mistakes. Suzuki is the only other contender, but I see her a real long shot, only 20% of the podium this time. The Russians cant medal this year, they can only shoot for top 5, and set themselves up to challenge for an Olympic medal with sufficient improvement next year. Same as Gold, same as Osmond, although they would have a much harder time even reaching top 5.
Thanks for the response. Pretty much how I see it.
Of the four top ladies I mentioned, I think Carolina is the one most likely to splat. I think Akiko is hindered by being the #2 JPN lady right now and I don't see the judges putting her ahead of a clean Ashley. Either Kiira or one of the Russian gals will most likely be final group material
I also think if Ando comes back next season in good shape and wanting to go to the Olympics, while she wont get her former stature back, she will be given Japanese #2 status, as the back up plan for a possible bronze if Mao their #1 hope falters. In the event that happens I could see the Japanese sending Murakami to the Olympics for experience, and leaving Suzuki at home entirely. I actually like Suzuki and her skating, and some thought I was bashing her when I said there is no way the Japanese want her to be their #1, but I was just being a realist. They had every opportunity to start giving her #1 backing with all that she has done, and all the others have been floundering or absent the last 2 years and they still havent done it. Even at Worlds when Mao bombed she was not given the boost in scores a #1 Japanese would get, which cost her atleast the silver. They were always holding out for one of Asada, Ando, or Murakami to start skating better. This year Mao is only getting 4 ratified triples a program at best, sometimes not even that, but for the JSF that is apparently good enough to get firm #1 support again and encourage her to do better, they clearly were desperate for anyone but Suzuki as their #1.
^Isn't Akiko taking it season-by-season? I mean, she hasn't even as of now committed to Sochi and I think she's close to Butyrskaya's age during the '99 - '02 quadrennial.
Well being honest I think 85% most likely Ando doesnt come back at all or doesnt come back in good enough form to be competitive, and in that case Akiko is probably fine staying as their #2 (or dropping to #3 behind Murakami). Just saying that in the unlikely event Ando comes back quite stronly she will be given their #2 skater status immediately, and Akiko could easily find herself off the team as they would probably look to groom some kind of future hopeful by sending them as their #3 in that case.
I tend to agree with this (about Ando). She seems to have disappeared, and she was not that strong (overall) to begin with. Mao is no longer what she was in 2010. Right now I just don't see any strong Japanese ladies beyond Mao and Akiko. At one time their ladies field appeared so deep. Murakami is not that strong; may be she could develop but can she challenge the young Russians, Americans and Canada's new hope Kaetlyn? I am only looking at 2014-2016.
I did not see Yuna's recent competition. Does anyone who did think that she was scored appropriately? After reading she had a "mistake-filled program" I'm wondering if that is worth 200+ points.
If the scoring was truly unfair, then nobody is going to beat her because she is viewed as a 200+ skater even with mistakes.
Kim had these jump mistakes in her FS: 1A+1T+1Lo and 3S+2T(fall). Korean TV broadcast video of her FS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw_pRAcTCmg
Her SP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQdr3fb2CXc
Re-posting from another thread...
Opining on NRW Trophy: Kim's comeback, fairly scored? An analysis:
It wasn't "filled" with mistakes. She fell on a double toe and singled the 2axel/2toe/2loop combination but she still landed 6 triples with a 3 lutz-3 toe combination in both SP and LP.
I'd say her NRW total score was just about right.
In terms of a Yu-Na versus Ashley argument, I think if it's close and Ashley skates cleanly (with the added technical content (3-3 in the SP, probably a 2-3 in the FS)) and say Yu-Na makes mistakes, I honestly think the judges would reward Ashley, if only b/c she's been so strong all season. That's what happened to Miki in 2011: if you remember, Miki was extremely consistent with her FS that season and won everything except the GPF that year. To top it off, she turned in two virtually flawless programs at worlds. Yu-Na had been absent all year and struggled in both programs... I fully agree that Yu-Na's overall quality as well as her programs were superior to Miki BUT b/c Miki had been kicking ass all season and delivered at worlds when Yu-Na made mistakes, the judges rewarded Miki. I could see something similar to that happening at worlds this year if Yu-Na struggles and Ashley (or someone else) delivers cleanly.
Well there's the answer then. It's not possible to beat Yuna, even with a fall and a pop. It would take a complete implosion of her falling on all of her jumps to beat her.
She is moving in the right direction. I think Mao could well have her 3A and 3x3 combination back by 2013 Worlds
The fact is she landed very signficant jump content. Really the only jumping pass Yuna lost was the 2a-2t-2l. She landed the sal in the 3sal-2t. She landed 3Z-3T, 3F, 3S, 2A, 3Z (and the first part of 3S-2T). So that's more jump content than what Mao and Carolina have put out this season despite hre mistakes. She does have some cushion against Ashley (who's been clean twice this season), and Akiko, but that's not so different than what Mao and Caro have.
Here's the latest Japan Times "Ice Time" column that focuses on Asada and Kim: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/sp20121219it.html
It ends this way:
I really hope that's not the case. Jump wise, Yu-Na is still the standard. BUT if she turns in a sloppy performance, I'd be pissed to see her held up over someone who had a clean or more inspired skate. As of now, I'm not too thrilled with her programs. I think Mao, Ashley, Akiko and now Carolina all have programs that stand out.
To me, Yu-Na's programs are like Kiira's: nice but nothing spectacular. They don't really stand out among the others. I had a Yu-Na love fest marathon the other day and was looking back at her programs from 2009, 2010 and her performances at worlds in 2011. Her programs have always stood out...even in 2011. I thought her Giselle program was lovely even though it didn't leave as big of an impact as her Bond or Danse SPs did. But her Homage to Korea program was gorgeous: the pacing was wonderful, the music was unique and there was just more depth to it. Even with the mistakes, it was an amazingly beautiful program.
Kiss of the Vampire and Les Miserables aren't that great IMO...they feel generic. Looking specifically at the programs (ignore the jumps and focus only on the structure, choreography and music), if you stacked all of the programs next to each other (Mao, Ashley, Akiko, Carolina and Yu-Na), in terms of overall impact, I still think Yu-Na would come out on the lower end.
As I said in an earlier post, I should probably cut her some slack. With two lower level competitions and worlds as her schedule this year, it makes sense she wouldn't want exhaust too much creative effort for the programs...best to save that for the full season she has next year. I honestly think she should have just stuck with Giselle and Homage this season. Neither of those programs were performed well and I really think they deserved another chance. Maybe these two programs will get better...I don't really see how but hopefully she'll prove me wrong.
I agree that Yuna's new SP is not as spectacular as her usual SP, but it looks still nice to me. I just don't like the music, it's too heavy and creepy...
My favorite SP of this season is Kostner's SP - mostly because of the music I like Akiko's Kill Bill, enjoyed Mao's delightful SP and Yuna's dark Vampire (it grows on me now) as well! Ashley's SP was forgettable.
Yuna's Les Miserables is my favorite LP along with Akiko's LP! I think it has a potential to be a masterpiece - interesting layout, some great choreography and transitions. Mao's LP is nice, but nothing special to me. Kostner's LP was very disappointing - empty, lots of meaningless posing. Ashley's LP looks good, but I much prefer Joannie's.
I don't want Yuna to bring back her old programs. I didn't enjoy her Giselle, and I don't like skaters reusing their programs even if they're great.
Hmm.. Yuna is still considering 4CC. I hope she goes to 4CC, it will be good for her.
beating in the sense of striking her?
The girl with swag (Ashley)
Swag punch kick dunkin donut spin power all you like... Yuna is a fast escape artist.
OT I do wonder if these girls are all playing tag on the rink, who will the first one being tagged
I bet Ashley would probably be the most enthusiastic tagger, I can totally see it.
not if you put Julia in the equation..
that would totally repay me for the last 2 seasons' boredom
LOL.. BTW the one with the yellow dyed hair is the "elevator guy" in PSY's Gangnam Style video.
funny to read that ando, who is not competing this season, has more supporter than leonova & sotnikova seems like sochi 2014 will be fun
For the SP, I think it's the music too. IDK, it's just so dramatic, pretty much the whole way through...not enough variation. I don't like it . Akiko's Kill Bill has grown on me and Mao's performances of her I Got Rhythm SP has helped it to grow on me too. I like Ashley's SP and that she took on the double whammy challenge of skating to Red Violin (double whammy b/c the music is tough to skate to and that's the Kween's music...that's always a challenge). It's good but it's not my fav. I really love Carolina's SP too...that music is wonderful and the choreography matches it so well.
Yu-Na's Les Mis feels a little bland to me right now. I don't know why but I'm not seeing any kind of masterpiece potential from it. To me it's decent, but definitely not a stand out among her portfolio. Mao, Akiko and Ashley take the cake with LPs this year. Mao's is elegant and balletic and I really like the pacing and the edits of music they chose; Akiko's is just *sigh* so beautiful...there's just something about the music and her interpretation that really pulls me in; and Ashley found the perfect vehicle for her strengths. She's powerful and strong, yet there's this finesse to her; her S&D really highlights those qualities.
As for Carolina's Bolero, there are parts that stand out (particularly the last 45 secs) but I hope they add a bit to it as well. I don't care for Bolero...at all really...but this program has the potential to change my mind.
Someone posted somewhere that she had some obligation that conflicted with 4CC. Maybe they're trying to find a way to make it work...I definitely think 4CC is a necessary competition for Yu-Na. If she has to skip it, worlds will be her first major competition of the season. True, she won't be as green as she was in 2011 (zero competitions prior) but it will be the first time she's been at a competition that actually has some competition. I'd just like to see her get her jitters completely out before the big one.
^ It’s understandable the Japanese media paraphrasing the interview and wanting to hint the possibility and promote the event in Osaka, but Yu-Na is not going to 4CC. There’s a conflict of schedule with PyeongChang Special Olympics.
It’s funny. The Japanese media used to call the old rivalry as Asada the technician (the jumper) vs Kim the performer. Now they want to bill it as Asada the artist vs Kim the jumper, after all those rule changes unfavorable to Yu-Na regarding 2A restriction, re-calibrated BVs of jumps, and reduced GOE scale, and with Mao having made no progress as a performer since her Nocturne season. Go figure.
Mao’s programs this season are just forgettable. I wonder what her team was thinking when going for those routines. The music cuts are fine, but she could’ve done better than playing little and cutie. It’s understandable if it fits the taste of general Japanese audience and her most avid fans, but she has to come up with better programs if she wants to have a wide appeal to the skating fans. Even JSF’s Noriko Shirota issued a rare warning by dissing her performances as “juvenile” while praising Yu-Na’s as “mature”.
The inferiority complex that the Koreans have vis a vis the Japanese is still prevalent, I see.
I guess we can agree to disagree. I consider myself a Mao fan but (if you've ready any of my posts regarding her) she's not above reproach in my eyes.
I like her SP. I wasn't sure at first but I think it works for her. It was a risk simply b/c she is skating to what is considered juniorish or juvenile music. That was the challenge: take juniorish music and make it work for a 20+ skater. It's a light, happy and fun program that you'd probably see a younger skater use BUT it's performed with grace and maturity. I say it's a blend of Mao circa 2005 with today's Mao. It has that carefree and youthful feel but it's executed with the maturity and skill she's gained over the years. Like I said it was a risk but it's working. Despite whatever criticism she's received the judges clearly like it...
As for the LP, I think it was a great choice. It isn't overly complicated; the choreography is simple but effective. The program relies on Mao's superior lines, elegance and grace to bring it to life. I think it's stunning...one of her strongest programs to date.
I have a hunch: Mao will try 3A at Worlds. She has been landing it in the practice at the Japanese nationals.
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