Who has the best chance of beating Yu na Kim at the 2013 worlds?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Dec 12, 2012.

?

Who has the best chance of beating Yu na Kim at the 2013 worlds?

Poll closed May 1, 2013.
  1. Carolina Kostner

    38 vote(s)
    15.7%
  2. Ashley Wagner

    58 vote(s)
    24.0%
  3. Mao Asada

    100 vote(s)
    41.3%
  4. Miki Ando

    6 vote(s)
    2.5%
  5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    7 vote(s)
    2.9%
  6. Adelina Sotnikova

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Akiko Suzuki

    2 vote(s)
    0.8%
  8. Alena Leonova

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Gracie Gold

    7 vote(s)
    2.9%
  10. Kaetlyn Osmond

    12 vote(s)
    5.0%
  11. Kiira Korpi

    3 vote(s)
    1.2%
  12. Other

    9 vote(s)
    3.7%
  1. sadya

    sadya Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    409
    Very probably Mao Asada or else, Ashley Wagner. You never know though, perhaps someone suddenly sees the light and has the performance of her life, outskating everyone or perhaps Kim, Asada and Wagner all making so many mistakes that and outsider wins. Still, it's fun to predict the outcome an see what really happens.
  2. maatTheViking

    maatTheViking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    1,720
    I think Wagner, Asada, Kostner and Suziki are all capable of beating her, depending on various small errors/non-errors.
    Ando WAS, but I doubt she will be a worlds, or be a factor (sadly).

    if someone wipes the ice, all bets are off, of course.
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  3. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,392
    Wheee ! My mistake !
    I've just watched it, her SP is really good, and her LP is good. Not at her best shape, but it's a good come back :)
  4. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    427
    I think everything depends on wheither Yuna goes clean in the SP or no. If clean, she will score at least 5 points higher than the current group of top ladies and will be very hard if possible to beat even with some mistakes in the FS. I don't think nowdays Asada has a chance against her then, and definitely not Wagner or Suzuki. Clean Kostner maybe, but she needs at least the second 3F in her LP. As for youngsters, clean Adelina with better programs (but how likely is that?) maybe has a chance, others, IMO, need more time
  5. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,924
    Any of the top ladies have a shot at beating Yu-Na right now...the ice is always slippery. But unlike most skaters, whether or not Yu-Na wins is based on Yu-Na. When she's at the top of her game, she's pretty much untouchable.

    I'm sure many will disagree with me here, but I don't care for either of Yu-Na's programs right now :slinkaway. I've watched them several times and they're nice, but IMO Mao, Ashley and Akiko all have more dynamic and unique programs than the two Yu-Na has. Yu-Na's programs are very safe, almost cookie-cutter David Wilson programs. Don't get me wrong, they're nice programs...but they aren't spectacular or standouts a la her Bond/Gershwin combo or even Giselle/Homage from 2011. I'm so used to being blown away by Yu-Na's programs that for me, these two are a bit of a letdown. :( To be fair, for this truncated season she doesn't need her absolute bestest best programs. As it stands she's only doing NRW (done), Korean nationals and worlds which means only one performance will happen on a big international stage. She's probably saving her wowzaa! programs for next season. Still, I was hoping for more...

    Even though Yu-Na's programs place last in terms of the contenders (for me at least), Yu-Na's jump content is already at the top of the heap. Just by having a clean lutz and a 3Lz-3T she has a big advantage over the other front-runners. BUT she'll need to be clean especially if Ashley ups her technical content and goes clean and if Mao is clean. Unfortunately (for Akiko anyway) I think a flawed Yu-Na will beat a clean Akiko, but this won't be a cakewalk for her. Yu-Na is not known for turning in back-to-back clean performances with regularity. She'd always have a mistake or two but the strength of her other jumps combined with her overall skating pulled her through. Depending on how her competition delivers, that might not be enough this time.

    I really hope Yu-Na reconsiders and competes at 4CC. Her programs need more mileage (obviously) and I think it will do her good to compete at a competition where the skaters are on her level. NRW was not a challenge and Korean nationals won't be a challenge either. She needs to re-acclimate herself to the intensity of a high level competition and the pressure that comes with it.

    I am thrilled she's back though! Just having her in the competition ups the stakes and puts the pressure on those around her. Mao will need to start fully rotating her jumps b/c it's doubtful 3 or 4 triples will hold up for gold; Ashley will have to up the ante and add that 3F-3T to the SP and the 2A-3T to the LP to stay competitive; and everyone else will have to up their game as well.

    Worlds should be a great competition this year!:)
  6. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,227
    Kwanatic,

    As I wrote in another thread, I believe these programs are just the beginning and they will grow choreographically.
  7. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,970
    There are a few ways this could turn out:

    Yu Na seems more focused on skating now than during the '10 - '11 season where she ended up losing '11 Worlds to Ando. But, I wouldn't say she's back to Vancouver form where she was virtually unbeatable. Another problem is she isn't fully committing to seasons anymore. I also daresay that her 201 pt. total at NRW was probably a little inflated. If that were performed in a GP event, it would've been a few points lower.

    Right now, I give Mao the best shot of beating her. But, Mao will need something more technically to do it and I'm not sure she has it. I also don't think she will have a clean 3x by Worlds.

    Interestingly, Ashley is beating Carolina in this poll. I think Carolina has better scoring potential than Ashley, but Caro is an interesting case: In order to compete with the best this year, she wil have to bring back jumps she's abandoned over the past year and perhaps a harder 3-3. We are looking at a tougher competition this year. She's not the most dependable skater under pressure though, so where would that leave her? She'll probably garner big PCS for a decent skate but not enough to beat Yu Na. Clean Caro but w/o anything harder than last year and she may be off the podium, falling victim to a resurgent Mao and a hungry Ashley.

    I don't think Akiko or any of the others have any shot even in fantasy land.

    I would say Ashley is the hungriest of all the top ladies, and sometimes that can make all the difference. If she has a 3-3 in the SP, and a 2x-3t in the LP, anything can happen ...
  8. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,924
    I remember reading somewhere where she said she wasn't giving 100% to the performance b/c she was focusing on landing the jumps, which makes sense seeing as how the whole point in competing at NRW was to to get the necessary TES requirements.

    I'm sure the programs will grow somewhat but, like I said, being that she only has one more performance before worlds, I don't know how much growth we'll actually see. I really, really, really think she needs to reconsider and attend 4CC. Then again, maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way. Maybe her goal isn't to win worlds this year. She said she's just trying to qualify and get Korea those spots. Maybe that's why she's not competing at 4CC. Yu-Na only needs a decent performance at worlds to make the podium (more than likely) so maybe she's just easing back into it...

    Either way, I'm happy she's back...still not sold on the programs though.

    As for Carolina, she has her work cut out for her. She'll need more content if she hopes to stay at the top.
  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,227
    Yu na's return is going to make all the ladies work harder, and think of adding more difficult jumps & other content. It's good for the sport.
  10. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,271
    My favorite ladies currently are Carolina and Elizaveta! I have also warmed up to Kaetlyn this season. I simply find Yu-Na boring now and I think a large part of me feeling that way is that I don't get the sense she is motivated to still be competing at this level, but instead is doing it out of obligation towards her federation. IMO, she has regressed from 2010 (I don't see the fire in her or the love of competing) and I don't have an interest in seeing skaters come back to competition only to be shadows of their former selves (see Johnny Weir this season and Sasha Cohen in 2010). I give Yu-Na major props though for keeping up her technical level. She certainly is a hard worker!
  11. lowtherlore

    lowtherlore New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2006
    Messages:
    390
    Nobody can come back to that level without the love for skating, IMO. She was hesitant to return due to the fear of psychological burden and gruesome training. That psychological burden IMO is more from the pressure of satisfying the huge anticipation for certain level of performance expected out of her, than from competing with others for placement itself. The sense of obligation to her federation or to Korean skating may also have set in. But, for her return to ISU Worlds, whether her main motivation or the goal is to win or to get the Olympic berths for her fed, is not worth debating. Bottom line, I think she came back because she WANTED to, after all.

    Her skating and the programs will get better by the worlds, as Vash said. I think both her programs are beautiful. The SP has the cult movie feel to it, tastefully done. The LP is both epic and lyrical. As for her physical conditioning, it would be safe to assume that she will be at least 90% of her Vancouver level. As for her skating and performance finesse, I think in some aspects she has gotten better since Vancouver.

    That being said, Yu-Na has been, and still is, beatable. But it would require some mistakes on her part. If anybody has comparable number of mistakes, I'd say Yu-Na has 1-2 fall cushion for her difficulty+quality at this point.
  12. chmea

    chmea New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2003
    Messages:
    120
    "Could easily win" :rofl: :huh:you lost some credibility here

    "Almost everyone" Yes

    "IMO" :D That's better, because it's surely not a fact !
  13. seabm7

    seabm7 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2009
    Messages:
    464
    Yuna Kim cannot go to 4CC because of a schedule conflict. She's working as an ambassader for the winter special olympics, which happens in Korea on February. The olympics ends when 4CC starts, which leaves her little training time right before the competition.
  14. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2012
    Messages:
    2,126
    Mao is in her own class.
  15. npavel

    npavel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2007
    Messages:
    1,344
    I think YuNa's score at NWR was really strange. If you look at PCS, she got more than at 2011 Worlds with a sub-par performance. The goe went from -1 to +3 for the same element. If you take that in account, her score was really not to take in consideration or to compare to the skaters in the GP circuit.
    That said, I really think her SP is the worst I have seen her skate ever, the music is over whelming her skate. The free might be a god program with some more transition, interpretation ... feeling.
    She is definitely not the strongest in Ladies field right now, but by worlds you never know ...
    I have to wait to see Carolinas programs to be able to express myself, but right now I prefer other ladies programs - skating to YuNa's and think she is definitively beatable by some of them.
  16. naan

    naan New Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2012
    Messages:
    82
    For someone who thinks "Yuna was ridiculously overmarked, her score was a joke", here is Jackie Wong's opinion.
    As for goe on her double axel in the SP,
    More review on World Figure Skating
    Back to the topic, I think anything can happen. Ice is slippery! ;)
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    LOL like 2011 Worlds wasnt an extremely subpar performance. :lol: Also scores tend to elevate over the quad, havent people been around COP long enough to have figured this out yet.
  18. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2009
    Messages:
    2,019
    Scores between events are NOT comparable and that definitely includes Senior Bs. Kiira scored what, a 69 for her SP at Finlandia?
  19. Lainerb

    Lainerb New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,737

    :blah: Isn't this the exact same thing you said about Ando during the 2010-2011 season when you said she'd be a none factor at worlds? :p I am not saying she is going to come back or not, but you can't deny the girl is extremely competitive when she is in the competition.

    As for Kim this season, I kinda doubt that anyone will win against her come worlds. Maybe Kostner if she is is in competitive shape, but I just don't see Mao pulling it off and so far none of the Russian ladies have proven themselves at the level of Kim, Mao or Kostner thusfar.
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    Korpi would have scored 69 for that short program anywhere had she duplicated it so I dont see your point. It was a much better short program than anyone all season has produced except for Kim's recent one, and reflected by the score. Based on how Mao was scored at the GP final, Kim's scores for what she did were expected. Her SP would always outscore Mao and Wagner even doing the same jumps, then with one doing a triple-triple and the others a triple-double the gap of 6 points is what one would expect. Her LP content was similar to what Mao produced at the GP final too, with only slightly more in mistakes. If you think those are not scores Kim would get for similar performances be prepared to be surprised in the coming months (mind you her LP scores will likely go well up as her LP performances will improve greatly from what she produced at that event).

    If by any chance the troll Lainberb happened to respond to me (which I suspect as this poster was frequent in stalking me from thread to thread), be known you were put on my ignore list almost 2 years ago so dont waste your typing fingers. If the response was not to me then I apoligize.
  21. Lainerb

    Lainerb New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,737
    Judgejudy is a very interesting person.
  22. AliasJohnDoe

    AliasJohnDoe Spin Alissa Spin!!!

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2004
    Messages:
    3,678
    Yuna has to make it out of Nationals first. :p
  23. AndyWarhol

    AndyWarhol Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2009
    Messages:
    1,163
    :lol:
  24. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Only one who could "beat" Yuna would be Tonya Harding... Then the rest of the girls in the competition would have half a chance.
  25. kittyjake5

    kittyjake5 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2006
    Messages:
    1,591
    I voted for Caro. If Yuna returns to her Olympic form I am not sure she is beatable, but I think that
    a clean Caro can come closer than Mao or Ashley.
  26. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2004
    Messages:
    348
    Kostner just scored 65 points in the Golden Spin SP with a 3T-3T and a 3 loop. I think she just proved she doesn't need to up her technical difficulty at all to remain a contender. And really, why would she now with the scores she's getting?

    This is why I'm glad Kim is back. We should NOT be seeing 1980s jump content win World titles in this day and age!
  27. os168

    os168 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    869
    Good luck to all ladies, ice is slippery and unpredictable. Anything can happen!

    I like the fact Carolina attempted a 3Lutz during her latest FS, hopefully other ladies will slowly upgrade their content so this can be a serious sport again.

    However, I strongly disagree with this acceptance to win by PCS approach. We generally don't accept this for the men, so why should we accept for the ladies?

    Consider Kostner's latest FS that consist of just 1 clean 3T, 2 <, a 3Lutz step out (not even qualify for minimum TES), yet she still received higher PCS for that skate than Akiko from NHK who had the FS of her life there. Do you still think the system got the balance right? Does it make a fair competition? Would this be acceptable during the Olympics under even greater scrutiny and watchful eye of a world wide audience beyond this figure skating board?
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
    BigB08822 and (deleted member) like this.
  28. PeterG

    PeterG Argle-Bargle-ist

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2002
    Messages:
    8,620
    :blah:
  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,227
    There is a big difference between Golden spin and worlds/Olympics scoring. Look at who she was competing against. COP is not perfectly objective, as we have known for sometime.
  30. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2003
    Messages:
    20,745
    I am not sure why Yu Na Kim even worries about doing the 3/3 in the SP any more. It is clearly not needed. She will easily get the PCS to boost her score. She should just do a 3lutz/2toe, 2axel and 3flip. She could even do a solo 3toe and still be right there. I would hate to see her punished for actually attempting technical content and lose to these ladies doing content from the early 90s.
    l'etoile and (deleted member) like this.
  31. os168

    os168 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    869
    By the way... why isn't Michelle Kwan on this poll... I am disgusted!!
    AndyWarhol and (deleted member) like this.
  32. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,227
    May be she likes to challenge herself to do the most difficult things she is able to do. It's like what Elvis Stojko said (about the quad)- "because I can"

    Your comment about the ladies from the early 90's is laughable. Some of those ladies were doing fully rotated 3Lutz-3toe, 3A-2t, 3A, etc. which is a stronger content than what they are doing now. Most of them were attempting at least a 3lutz without a combination.
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    Yu Na has never been the most consistent LP skater, even in her glory days. Best to do what she does best, kill the opposition in the SP, not just beat them, and give herself a cushion for potential errors/problems in the LP. It would be silly to drop the 3/3 from her SP, it is actually very consistent for her over the years, and she should want to give herself the biggest leads she can.
  34. RunnersHigh

    RunnersHigh Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2009
    Messages:
    2,979
    Did she? I saw her SP warm-up, SP, FS dress-rehearsal, FS warm-up and FS *LIVE* in Dortmund.
    And I couldn't find it on her face.
    Her success rate on 3/3, 3Lz, 3S, 3S-2T, 2A-2T-2L and 2A during the warm-up and dress-rehearsal was 100%.
    Finding her own entry route, popped 3F twice at first but then hit them all.

    Well... may be right on the basis of doing 3-3 is nothing to do with PCS and if she could deliver *IT* factors concerned with PCS to crowds and judges.

    Do everything hard you can execute is the fundamental principle in any sports. (Love Shaun White cuz of the reason.)


    Back to the topic, I believe everybody, whethere on the list or not, has the chance if her performance could be the best in the competition. :D
  35. kosjenka

    kosjenka Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2003
    Messages:
    2,517
    Scores from International B Competitions are not comparable with those on GP, Worlds, Euros.
  36. michiruwater

    michiruwater Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2006
    Messages:
    9,142
    That's 13 points below what Yu Na is capable of though. So, either Kostner ups her content or she very possibly has a large deficit to make up in the LP. And Caro is a less consistent LP skaters than Yu Na is.
  37. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2003
    Messages:
    20,745

    I was being quite sarcastic while making a serious point at the same time. ;) You are right about the comment about the early 90's being laughable and that illustrates my point even more. I should correct it to say "content from the 80s." Who thought this would be ladies skating in the year 2012?
  38. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,924
    The technical content has regressed quite a bit in the absence of Yu-Na but the upside is we're seeing more complete programs in terms of artistry, presentation, musicality, etc. I like harder content but (being a fan of 6.0 skating) I'd much rather see an inspired performance of lovely choreography performed with a decent spread of jumps...rather than a program full of perfunctory choreography that basically equates to skating from end to end reeling off as many triple jumps as allowed.

    I'll take 6 or 7 triples without a 3-3 if the program is great and the jumps are clean. I'm not as concerned with 3-3s as some people are. Yu-Na's consistent 3-3 is a threat to everyone b/c she hits it more than 90% of the time and it immediately gives her a boost everywhere else. Without some sort of 3-3, no one really stands a chance against her technically unless she makes a mistake. If she goes clean, she'll win without question...if she makes mistakes, she opens the door but whoever steps through will have to be nearly perfect (if not 100%) to beat her and the only people who can beat a flawed Yu-Na right now are are Mao, Carolina and I'd say Ashley too...if they are 100%.
  39. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,227
    Point well taken. The sarcasm didn't come through, hence my misinterpretation of your post. I will stand by my comment about the 90's ladies though.
  40. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2004
    Messages:
    348
    IIRC, the only time she botched the 3-3 in the SP at Worlds was in 2011 and she still placed 1st. The two times she hit the 3-3 but messed something else up, she was down in 5th (2008) or out of the final group (2010). So go figure.

    I agree, she ain't dropping it from the SP. She's been including a 3-3 in the SP her entire senior career and she doesn't seem like the type to play it safe even though most of her competitors are attempting easier jumps.