Who has the best chance of beating Yu na Kim at the 2013 worlds?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Dec 12, 2012.

Who has the best chance of beating Yu na Kim at the 2013 worlds?

Poll closed May 1, 2013.
  1. Carolina Kostner

    38 vote(s)
    15.7%
  2. Ashley Wagner

    58 vote(s)
    24.0%
  3. Mao Asada

    100 vote(s)
    41.3%
  4. Miki Ando

    6 vote(s)
    2.5%
  5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    7 vote(s)
    2.9%
  6. Adelina Sotnikova

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Akiko Suzuki

    2 vote(s)
    0.8%
  8. Alena Leonova

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Gracie Gold

    7 vote(s)
    2.9%
  10. Kaetlyn Osmond

    12 vote(s)
    5.0%
  11. Kiira Korpi

    3 vote(s)
    1.2%
  12. Other

    9 vote(s)
    3.7%
  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The Olympic ladies event does usually go as roughly predicted as matter of fact:

    1980- Fratianne and Poetzsch 1-2 in any order as expected. One of Lurz, Watanabe, or Marie Allen bronze as expected.
    1984- Sumners and Witt 1-2 in any order as expected. Crapshoot for bronze as expected.
    1988- Witt winning as expected. Thomas on podium as expected. On home ice Manley on podium not surprising either.
    1992- Yamaguchi and Ito 1-2 in any order as expected. One of Kerigan or Harding bronze as expected.
    1994- Kerrigan and Baiul 1-2 in any order as expected. One of Bonaly, Sato, or Chen bronze as expected.
    1998- Kwan and Lipinski 1-2 in any order as expected. Crapshoot for bronze as expected.
    2002- Slutskaya, Kwan, and Hughes as the podium in some order as everyone expected. Hughes winning was a surprise I admit.
    2006- A podium of Cohen, Slutskaya, Arakawa as expected. With Slutskaya's age, illess, and Olympic history her not winning wasnt a shock.
    2010- The expected podium.
     
  2. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Nice try. 'Roughly' is the key word here. Your predictions are not only who will be on the podium but also the order, namely gold.
     
  3. AndyWarhol

    AndyWarhol Well-Known Member

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    I'd say Mao. Mao Mao Mao
     
  4. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^ Saying doesn't make it so, and seeing is believing, or NOT! :duh: ;)
     
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Nice try, but I did not guarantee Yu Na winning gold in Sochi, or make exact podium predictions of which 3 women would. I simply stated the obvious that she is a major contender, and already the early odds on favorite which is what Vash01's poll implies. I did say the only one who could beat her is herself, but that is kind of obvious when in her first event back she makes about 4 mistakes and still beats the GP final winners overall point total by a good margin. That has always been the case with Yu Na since 2007 anyway, she only loses when she makes not only mistakes, but alot of mistakes (and I am not even a big fan, just reality) and the ladies field is currently still a shadow of the 07-2010 standard, although blissfully much higher than 2011-2012. Also in stating the obvious that a virtually retired Miki Ando who will be 27 in Sochi is not a real contender, one comment on one skater, that is hardly exact podium predictions for Sochi. If I am wrong on that feel free to bring the thread back up and dance all around.
     
  6. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley could beat YuNa if she goes completely clean and YuNa has some glitches like in 2011.
     
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    It's so easy to 'predict' after an event has already taken place and medals have been awarded.;)
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    True, but the Olympics from 92 onwards I was strongly following skating and felt that way before each. Did you not? The top 2 favorites who were supposed to fight for the gold finished as the top 2 at all of the 90s and 2000s Olympics, except for Hughes in 2002.
     
  9. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

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    Besides her 3lz/3toe, nothing aobut her skating is so well and above the rest of the skaters, really. The PCS she received at NWR for the way she skated was a joke. But even when she was at her prime her presentation just never seemed convincing to me. She ticked most of the PCS boxes I guess, but everything just feels like an exercise. There are a several skaters who, IMO, are better SKATERS than she is. I don't see why if she fails to land her money combination jumps, someone like, say, Suzuki shouldn't beat her on a good day.
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  10. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I agree with most about the lack of stretching and lines in Yu na's skating, but there are things that she does really well. 1)strong jumper; fully rotates her jumps, correct edges, 2) she has a lot of nuances in her skating- it could be a turn of a head, or an angle, or a body movement that works with the music (I disagree with those who say that she does not skate to the music), and 3(most important) she is mentally tough. I was very impressed with how she handled the pressure of the Olympics in 2010 and delivered two clean performances.

    It seems under COP they judges care little about lines and extensions, layback position, spirals, etc. So it works in her favor overall, with the strong points I mentioned.
     
  11. sadya

    sadya Active Member

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    Very probably Mao Asada or else, Ashley Wagner. You never know though, perhaps someone suddenly sees the light and has the performance of her life, outskating everyone or perhaps Kim, Asada and Wagner all making so many mistakes that and outsider wins. Still, it's fun to predict the outcome an see what really happens.
     
  12. maatTheViking

    maatTheViking Now ubering Machida's hair

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    I think Wagner, Asada, Kostner and Suziki are all capable of beating her, depending on various small errors/non-errors.
    Ando WAS, but I doubt she will be a worlds, or be a factor (sadly).

    if someone wipes the ice, all bets are off, of course.
     
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  13. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Wheee ! My mistake !
    I've just watched it, her SP is really good, and her LP is good. Not at her best shape, but it's a good come back :)
     
  14. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    I think everything depends on wheither Yuna goes clean in the SP or no. If clean, she will score at least 5 points higher than the current group of top ladies and will be very hard if possible to beat even with some mistakes in the FS. I don't think nowdays Asada has a chance against her then, and definitely not Wagner or Suzuki. Clean Kostner maybe, but she needs at least the second 3F in her LP. As for youngsters, clean Adelina with better programs (but how likely is that?) maybe has a chance, others, IMO, need more time
     
  15. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Any of the top ladies have a shot at beating Yu-Na right now...the ice is always slippery. But unlike most skaters, whether or not Yu-Na wins is based on Yu-Na. When she's at the top of her game, she's pretty much untouchable.

    I'm sure many will disagree with me here, but I don't care for either of Yu-Na's programs right now :slinkaway. I've watched them several times and they're nice, but IMO Mao, Ashley and Akiko all have more dynamic and unique programs than the two Yu-Na has. Yu-Na's programs are very safe, almost cookie-cutter David Wilson programs. Don't get me wrong, they're nice programs...but they aren't spectacular or standouts a la her Bond/Gershwin combo or even Giselle/Homage from 2011. I'm so used to being blown away by Yu-Na's programs that for me, these two are a bit of a letdown. :( To be fair, for this truncated season she doesn't need her absolute bestest best programs. As it stands she's only doing NRW (done), Korean nationals and worlds which means only one performance will happen on a big international stage. She's probably saving her wowzaa! programs for next season. Still, I was hoping for more...

    Even though Yu-Na's programs place last in terms of the contenders (for me at least), Yu-Na's jump content is already at the top of the heap. Just by having a clean lutz and a 3Lz-3T she has a big advantage over the other front-runners. BUT she'll need to be clean especially if Ashley ups her technical content and goes clean and if Mao is clean. Unfortunately (for Akiko anyway) I think a flawed Yu-Na will beat a clean Akiko, but this won't be a cakewalk for her. Yu-Na is not known for turning in back-to-back clean performances with regularity. She'd always have a mistake or two but the strength of her other jumps combined with her overall skating pulled her through. Depending on how her competition delivers, that might not be enough this time.

    I really hope Yu-Na reconsiders and competes at 4CC. Her programs need more mileage (obviously) and I think it will do her good to compete at a competition where the skaters are on her level. NRW was not a challenge and Korean nationals won't be a challenge either. She needs to re-acclimate herself to the intensity of a high level competition and the pressure that comes with it.

    I am thrilled she's back though! Just having her in the competition ups the stakes and puts the pressure on those around her. Mao will need to start fully rotating her jumps b/c it's doubtful 3 or 4 triples will hold up for gold; Ashley will have to up the ante and add that 3F-3T to the SP and the 2A-3T to the LP to stay competitive; and everyone else will have to up their game as well.

    Worlds should be a great competition this year!:)
     
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    Kwanatic,

    As I wrote in another thread, I believe these programs are just the beginning and they will grow choreographically.
     
  17. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    There are a few ways this could turn out:

    Yu Na seems more focused on skating now than during the '10 - '11 season where she ended up losing '11 Worlds to Ando. But, I wouldn't say she's back to Vancouver form where she was virtually unbeatable. Another problem is she isn't fully committing to seasons anymore. I also daresay that her 201 pt. total at NRW was probably a little inflated. If that were performed in a GP event, it would've been a few points lower.

    Right now, I give Mao the best shot of beating her. But, Mao will need something more technically to do it and I'm not sure she has it. I also don't think she will have a clean 3x by Worlds.

    Interestingly, Ashley is beating Carolina in this poll. I think Carolina has better scoring potential than Ashley, but Caro is an interesting case: In order to compete with the best this year, she wil have to bring back jumps she's abandoned over the past year and perhaps a harder 3-3. We are looking at a tougher competition this year. She's not the most dependable skater under pressure though, so where would that leave her? She'll probably garner big PCS for a decent skate but not enough to beat Yu Na. Clean Caro but w/o anything harder than last year and she may be off the podium, falling victim to a resurgent Mao and a hungry Ashley.

    I don't think Akiko or any of the others have any shot even in fantasy land.

    I would say Ashley is the hungriest of all the top ladies, and sometimes that can make all the difference. If she has a 3-3 in the SP, and a 2x-3t in the LP, anything can happen ...
     
  18. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I remember reading somewhere where she said she wasn't giving 100% to the performance b/c she was focusing on landing the jumps, which makes sense seeing as how the whole point in competing at NRW was to to get the necessary TES requirements.

    I'm sure the programs will grow somewhat but, like I said, being that she only has one more performance before worlds, I don't know how much growth we'll actually see. I really, really, really think she needs to reconsider and attend 4CC. Then again, maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way. Maybe her goal isn't to win worlds this year. She said she's just trying to qualify and get Korea those spots. Maybe that's why she's not competing at 4CC. Yu-Na only needs a decent performance at worlds to make the podium (more than likely) so maybe she's just easing back into it...

    Either way, I'm happy she's back...still not sold on the programs though.

    As for Carolina, she has her work cut out for her. She'll need more content if she hopes to stay at the top.
     
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    Yu na's return is going to make all the ladies work harder, and think of adding more difficult jumps & other content. It's good for the sport.
     
  20. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    My favorite ladies currently are Carolina and Elizaveta! I have also warmed up to Kaetlyn this season. I simply find Yu-Na boring now and I think a large part of me feeling that way is that I don't get the sense she is motivated to still be competing at this level, but instead is doing it out of obligation towards her federation. IMO, she has regressed from 2010 (I don't see the fire in her or the love of competing) and I don't have an interest in seeing skaters come back to competition only to be shadows of their former selves (see Johnny Weir this season and Sasha Cohen in 2010). I give Yu-Na major props though for keeping up her technical level. She certainly is a hard worker!
     
  21. lowtherlore

    lowtherlore New Member

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    Nobody can come back to that level without the love for skating, IMO. She was hesitant to return due to the fear of psychological burden and gruesome training. That psychological burden IMO is more from the pressure of satisfying the huge anticipation for certain level of performance expected out of her, than from competing with others for placement itself. The sense of obligation to her federation or to Korean skating may also have set in. But, for her return to ISU Worlds, whether her main motivation or the goal is to win or to get the Olympic berths for her fed, is not worth debating. Bottom line, I think she came back because she WANTED to, after all.

    Her skating and the programs will get better by the worlds, as Vash said. I think both her programs are beautiful. The SP has the cult movie feel to it, tastefully done. The LP is both epic and lyrical. As for her physical conditioning, it would be safe to assume that she will be at least 90% of her Vancouver level. As for her skating and performance finesse, I think in some aspects she has gotten better since Vancouver.

    That being said, Yu-Na has been, and still is, beatable. But it would require some mistakes on her part. If anybody has comparable number of mistakes, I'd say Yu-Na has 1-2 fall cushion for her difficulty+quality at this point.
     
  22. chmea

    chmea New Member

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    "Could easily win" :rofl: :huh:you lost some credibility here

    "Almost everyone" Yes

    "IMO" :D That's better, because it's surely not a fact !
     
  23. seabm7

    seabm7 Active Member

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    Yuna Kim cannot go to 4CC because of a schedule conflict. She's working as an ambassader for the winter special olympics, which happens in Korea on February. The olympics ends when 4CC starts, which leaves her little training time right before the competition.
     
  24. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

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    Mao is in her own class.
     
  25. npavel

    npavel Well-Known Member

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    I think YuNa's score at NWR was really strange. If you look at PCS, she got more than at 2011 Worlds with a sub-par performance. The goe went from -1 to +3 for the same element. If you take that in account, her score was really not to take in consideration or to compare to the skaters in the GP circuit.
    That said, I really think her SP is the worst I have seen her skate ever, the music is over whelming her skate. The free might be a god program with some more transition, interpretation ... feeling.
    She is definitely not the strongest in Ladies field right now, but by worlds you never know ...
    I have to wait to see Carolinas programs to be able to express myself, but right now I prefer other ladies programs - skating to YuNa's and think she is definitively beatable by some of them.
     
  26. naan

    naan New Member

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    For someone who thinks "Yuna was ridiculously overmarked, her score was a joke", here is Jackie Wong's opinion.
    As for goe on her double axel in the SP,
    More review on World Figure Skating
    Back to the topic, I think anything can happen. Ice is slippery! ;)
     
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    LOL like 2011 Worlds wasnt an extremely subpar performance. :lol: Also scores tend to elevate over the quad, havent people been around COP long enough to have figured this out yet.
     
  28. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Scores between events are NOT comparable and that definitely includes Senior Bs. Kiira scored what, a 69 for her SP at Finlandia?
     
  29. Lainerb

    Lainerb New Member

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    :blah: Isn't this the exact same thing you said about Ando during the 2010-2011 season when you said she'd be a none factor at worlds? :p I am not saying she is going to come back or not, but you can't deny the girl is extremely competitive when she is in the competition.

    As for Kim this season, I kinda doubt that anyone will win against her come worlds. Maybe Kostner if she is is in competitive shape, but I just don't see Mao pulling it off and so far none of the Russian ladies have proven themselves at the level of Kim, Mao or Kostner thusfar.
     
  30. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Korpi would have scored 69 for that short program anywhere had she duplicated it so I dont see your point. It was a much better short program than anyone all season has produced except for Kim's recent one, and reflected by the score. Based on how Mao was scored at the GP final, Kim's scores for what she did were expected. Her SP would always outscore Mao and Wagner even doing the same jumps, then with one doing a triple-triple and the others a triple-double the gap of 6 points is what one would expect. Her LP content was similar to what Mao produced at the GP final too, with only slightly more in mistakes. If you think those are not scores Kim would get for similar performances be prepared to be surprised in the coming months (mind you her LP scores will likely go well up as her LP performances will improve greatly from what she produced at that event).

    If by any chance the troll Lainberb happened to respond to me (which I suspect as this poster was frequent in stalking me from thread to thread), be known you were put on my ignore list almost 2 years ago so dont waste your typing fingers. If the response was not to me then I apoligize.