Which of these 3 American skaters will be most successful in seniors?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Sep 27, 2012.

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Which of these 3 American skaters is most likely to be successful in seniors?

Poll closed Oct 28, 2012.
  1. Jason Brown

    9 vote(s)
    8.0%
  2. Joshua Farris

    57 vote(s)
    50.4%
  3. Nathan Chen

    47 vote(s)
    41.6%
  1. mossop

    mossop New Member

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    Joshua Farris, Joshua Farris. He's got the jumps and artistry. He is on the ball. :rollin:
     
  2. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Really? Despite even the fact you too evinced a "lack of faith in Jason."


    Ha ha, yes indeed. Johnny was even amazing at 12 when he began skating, and at 16 when he became Junior World champion. Different eras, folks, different rules, different requirements, different training demands and different expectations.

    Johnny was at his peak at ages 19 - 24 perhaps, and he's come back at the age of 28, and he's still competitive, altho' physically his best days are behind him. Yet, he's still landing difficult jumps, just not with the same seemingly easy, effortless panache.

    Re the poll: Each one of these budding young skaters are unique in their own way and they will each develop at their own pace and their futures are all said and done, ... unpredictable. After all, this is Figure Skating, innit?
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Jason is just that there's so much that needs to be accomplished technically if he wants to have a shot at being competition for the big guns. It's pretty much standard for international contenders among the men on the senior level to be attempting a quad in their SPs, and then either a quad and two 3As, two quads and one 3A, and now even some are going for two quads and two 3As, in the FS. Maybe this will change after Sochi, but if it doesn't, Jason has a lot of work to do. Whereas for Josh I think he could be attempting that kind of content with some success as early as next season. As for Jason, realistically that will take a few years at least, if he even manages to truly master any of a 3A, 4t, or 4S at all. And now he's getting dinged for flutzing too, which he really can't afford with his limited technical arsenal at this point. I think he might have a hard time trying to defend his title at the JGPF honestly, and that's even with Han Yan most likely not being there, just where, going off of scores, Farris and Kovtun are head and shoulders ahead of him at this point. It's not just technically either, going off of numbers Brown is unlikely to have a PCS margin on either of those two to serve as a buffer, and might even lag a bit behind them even in that department. Even Jin despite being so young and coltish, already beat Jason once due to his superior technical abilities. Tanaka and Hino are prone to mistakes and aren't so strong artistically, but at least they both have 3a, and for Hino, his is huge, gorgeous, and really consistent. Brown's 3a was pretty close in Turkey, but pretty close isn't good enough, he needs it solid, consistent, and have 2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad which he will also need to be competitive on the senior level and maybe even to medal at JGPF or JW this season.
     
  4. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Like I said "different eras, different rules, different expectations," but seriously what else must Jason do before it's really, really, really too late? Jason's musicality, artistry, and unique movement style rivals that of many men on the senior level. Yadda, yadda re 3-axel, and demands that Jason must have "2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad..." Gosh, you guys are such serious taskmasters. Do you have Kori Ade's number on speed dial? It won't be the "end of the world" if Jason doesn't medal at JGPF or JW this season (but he is likely to anyway).

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy each moment, each season, each wonderful performance from all these guys and many others. F* expectations. :lol:

    Most of us don't even know the true meaning of "success" anyways. Have fun Jason, Joshua, and Nathan. Don't allow the pressure or the demands (especially from anxious, overwrought fans) get to you or knock you off your stride.

    * I heard recently about a young blogger who created a blog entitled, F* I'm in my twenties! :eek: It was turned into a book, and the blogger is currently in talks for a possible television series.

    Jason could write a blog entitled, F* I'm seventeen without a solid 3-axel (close but no cigar) and no quad in sight, as of yet anyways! :p

    I recall that Patrick Chan was still perfecting his 3-axel at the age of 17 in the senior ranks, and that he did not even start training a quad until at least three years later. I know times have changed, especially after 2010 Olympics, Plush's ire re necessity of macho quad, and Chan's subsequent mastery of quad. But ya know what, try as many may, they will never develop the musicality, artistry and charisma of Jason Brown, or Dai Takahashi, or Jeremy Abbott. Dai was a diamond in the rough at age 17, and he was nowhere near possessing the artistry and presentation skills that Jason has and already possessed even at age 15. Jason is still young yet and he's not "done" yet. ;)

    FYI:

    Jason Brown -- 17
    Nathan Chen -- 13
    Joshua Farris -- 17
     
  5. misskarne

    misskarne #ForzaJules #KeepFightingMichael

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    No, I didn't. I said that at the moment I couldn't give him the top spot. Read my post again, I'm quite convinced he'll be an amazing Senior. I just had to give top spot to Joshua because technically Joshua is further advanced.
     
  6. misskarne

    misskarne #ForzaJules #KeepFightingMichael

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    "You must spread some reputation around before giving it to aftershocks again."

    Just to clarify one thing - he HAS, in fact, tried a quad in training. I remember reading in an interview that some days when his triple toe is feeling especially good they'll strap on the harness and he'll have a go. Clearly he's not seriously training it yet but obviously he's not a total stranger to it either.
     
  7. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Fair points. Anyways, my post was more in reference of, if Jason wants to have a realistic shot at making the Olympic team IN SOCHI - he has a lot of work to do in a short amount of time. But these quad obsessed cycles seem to come in waves, and maybe after Sochi things will calm down a bit, they won't be as big of a deal or key to being competitive on the senior ranks as a guy. People might get injured from pushing too hard to get all these ridiculous technical skills, CoP could change again, etc. Plus the scene should be drastically different post Sochi, as almost certainly Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Joubert, Takahashi, Plushenko, Menshov, Oda, Verner, and Voronov will have retired by then, and it's possible Chan, Brezina, Kozuka, Rippon, Miner, Amodio, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, etc could be finished after 2014 too (and possibly Fernandez though I hope not, or even Hanyu if he wins/medals in Sochi...again hopefully not though).

    Realistically, Jason and Joshua are probably aiming to make the 2018 Olympic team and maybe considering sticking around through 2022, and obviously 2018-2022 is when Chen will be looking to be at his best. So that's a long ways off. And 5 years is plenty of time for Jason to develop a solid 3a and quad(s), if he even ends up needing them at all based on what the field and technical standards are looking like post-Sochi and heading into the Pyeongchang cycle. So yes, there is really no reason for these boys to be freaking out and pushing themselves too hard now. Well, with the exception of Josh because he may have a slight chance to make the 2014 Olympic team if he continues to have success with his 4t, 3a combos, and continues to improve artistically (but again pushing too hard is never the answer, it would more be, if he happens to continue his ascent and is really a prime option for the Olympic team). But it's a crap shoot either way and there's around a dozen strong men in the US with comparable skill sets vying for what most likely will be 2 spots so the chances that someone like Joshua, who's still very young and developing into his body and as of this season is still competing on the junior level internationally with Sochi a year away, would get picked for Worlds this season and Olympics/Worlds in 2014, are slim. And further, the USFS is probably hesitant to heavily push for someone like him anyways recognizing many of the other guys in consideration will be gone after 2014, while Josh is probably a prime candidate to be a top US men for the quadrennial following that and as such his talent should be carefully nurtured rather than pushed too fast and run the risk of injury and burnout as a teenager and before the 2018 Olympics. The same goes for Jason if he has a consistent 3a and quad come 2014 Nationals.

    I think that both boys probably gave up trying to make the 2014 Olympic team though when they decided (whether it was really their decision or mostly due to the coaxing of the USFS) to stay on the JGP this season. Nathan won't even be old enough for the Olympics until 2018 and Worlds until 2015 at the earliest, so he's got all the time in the World to develop and improve, and he's already doing remarkably well. I should have started out with that in my former post, I was more talking about, if Jason wants to make it on the senior ranks between now and the 2014 Olympics/Worlds..., because that's a very different and much more daunting task than making it period, with an indefinite and much longer time frame.

    Anyhow, Chan at 17 despite his 3a issues and no quad won silver at senior Worlds, so I don't think he's a good comparison. But Jeremy Abbott is! Not that he's really fulfilled his potential at international events, but he's at least managed some good results and medals at GPs and GPFs, and I'm sure everyone recognizes and appreciates his talents. I don't think he even skated on the GP until he was like 20 or 21, and even then artistically he was nowhere near as strong as Jason and Joshua are already, and he was very inconsistent with his hard jumps like 3a and 4t, but a few years later, he was a wonderful artist even though he was in his mid 20s which many would consider an age after most men reach their prime. Different strokes for different folks.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2012
  8. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Jeremy Abbott at 21, he was already fabulous to watch :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qq-KNVxYeU ;)
     
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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  10. Feb

    Feb Member

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    Chan won worlds silver at 18, not 17. He was 9th place at 17.
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Oops my bad. But Jason is turning 18 in a couple months, and his birthday is a couple weeks before Chan's, so this season he is the same age as Patrick the season he won silver at Worlds.

    Anyways, I think a lot will depend on who is still around after Sochi and if this quad/super-technical craze continues into the next quadrennial or not. Depending on what happens, quads might not be necessary, and Jason could become the next Buttle or Lysacek (Lysacek managed to get his 3a pretty consistent, but it was never a strong or pretty jump for him, ever). We'll have to see how it all pans out.
     
  12. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    It'll be interesting.

    I never thought that the quad would be LESS important after Sochi than now. The ISU made so many changes after the last Olympics that boosted the quad in importance that even negating some of those changed would still have the quad be necessary, imo.

    To me, that gives Farris the best shot of the three. He's still a work in progress, but you see the progress in all areas. He can tick the level boxes very well. His PCS are strong. His jumps are obviously all there. He will do what he needs to to improve (witness his decisions after the 2011 Nationals). Curious where the road takes him, but out of all juniors in any discipline, he's the one that has my cautious optimism the most.
     
  13. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I know the IJS has increase the value given to quads a lot and that has spurred this "quad craze" but you have to wonder if it will last. I mean, look at the ladies, sure a lot of people are doing 3-3s these days, but it's mostly 3t-3t, and we saw more 3a attempts in previous decades, Mao is the only one really that attempts it at all in competition anymore, and it's been that way for a long time. Kostner is World Champion and she won that title with a 5 triple FS without a 3lz, Miki Ando was World champion the year before with a 5 triple FS and no flip, Yu Na Kim won Worlds in 2010 with a 5 triple FS and even her great OGM FS only had 6 triples and no 3lo, Arakawa won OGM with a 5 triple FS, etc. So it's hard to say what would cause the expectations in the men's field to change, but maybe if there are a lot of injuries from quads, or the SP becomes redundant because, at least for right now, so many men are going for the quad in the SP and missing it and/or doing a 3-2 as their combo, that the importance of a clean short seems less relevant. The quad could become more important post Sochi or less, it's hard to tell.

    Anyways I agree about Farris. He is strong across the board and seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and within the past season appears to have learned to become a stronger competitor. Hopefully this will pan out to success on the senior level. The one thing I wonder though is about his style, it's very classical which I personally like, but someone like Jason Brown has more pizazz and originality, which could help his case in the eyes of the judges, especially if that becomes an important factor post Sochi. Maybe we'll see Farris try something different in the coming seasons though, I don't doubt that he can't do well with other styles, its more that he usually sticks to the same one, thus far.