Which of these 3 American skaters will be most successful in seniors?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Sep 27, 2012.

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Which of these 3 American skaters is most likely to be successful in seniors?

Poll closed Oct 28, 2012.
  1. Jason Brown

    9 vote(s)
    8.0%
  2. Joshua Farris

    57 vote(s)
    50.4%
  3. Nathan Chen

    47 vote(s)
    41.6%
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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    Joshua, Jason, and Nathan have dominated the JGP this season. But which of the 3 of them is most likely to ultimately be successful in the senior ranks?
  2. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Nathan Chen :cool:
    Jason Brown
    ...
    Joshua Farris
  3. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Looks like this poll will generate some constructive discussion. :p

    Why "skaters" instead of just "men"?
  4. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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    FSU members are always constructive :D
  5. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    I have to say probably Josh - he has it all right now, the jumps, the spins, the PCS, everything. So unbelievably good. And he seems to have got over that period where he was getting injured (conveniently, with a change of coaches...touch wood!).

    Jason will be amazingly good as a Senior though once he gets the 3A landed properly. At the moment, much as it pains me to say, he has too many question marks over him to get top spot.

    I don't know about Nathan Chen because he hasn't really been out and about enough to judge. Yes, he's wonder-baby and everything. Will it survive his growth spurts which are sure to come? I think he tends to be a little over-scored at the moment, and it will be interesting to see his development.
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    All of them! But seriously they are all really good. Josh already has a 3a and 4t, Nathan has 3a and I don't doubt he will get quad(s) in the coming years, and well Jason needs a 3a and quad, but there's still time for him to get those, and at least he's trying the 3a in competition now and standing up on it even if it's cheated, but if he gets those then he should do well too. I don't doubt that the three of them could comprise the Olympic team for 2018. You know, if all goes well between now and then. *knock on wood* :p

    I think they are all better/more interesting than the likes of Lysacek, Weir, Rippon, Miner, Aaron, etc. I do like Abbott (will obviously be too old to try for Pyeongchang though), Dornbush, Messing, and Mahbanoozadeh too though.
  7. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    If Farris learns to express the music, I think I'll enjoy his skating the most. He already has the jumps - he just needs the artistry.
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know about everyone else but I feel like Josh Farris is pretty artistic already, he's really improved in that department since leaving Tom Z and helping choreograph his programs IMO. Obviously there's always room to improve, but to me he's definitely not just a jumper who really is a bit lacking the artistry department like someone like Max Aaron or Brandon Mroz is, to me what makes Josh so good is how he balances his good jumps with his strong spins highlighted by his flexibility, intricate step sequences, and sensitivity to the music. He could be more extroverted in his performance, however, and I can see how this aspect of his skating could cause some to see him as lacking artistry. He's apparently pretty shy and reserved off the ice, so I imagine it's hard not to shake that when competing.
  9. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with parts of this analysis, but I feel like he could be more in tune with the music. I'm especially referencing his FS to Rachmaninoff. To me, that piece is like a souffle - if you do too much with it, it will be awful and if you don't do enough with it, it will also be awful, and I feel like he was pretty much skating through the music. I understand that he's a junior and there's time to improve, but there is much to improve. I also feel like his choreography could be improved. Having a skater doing crossovers during the climax of the rach 2 finale was an awful idea.
  10. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    only 2 votes for Brown but 19 votes for Farris ? :huh:

    exactly, when I see Farris skate I don't see an overall skater
    compared to Joshua and Nathan who has the jumps and artistry

    we'll find out by seniors soon
    though I don't bet much on Farris, he has already been left behind by Jason Brown and now Nathan Chen !
  11. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I think that people worry about Jason Brown's tech scores. If he doesn't get a complete triple axel, he won't be able to have much success in seniors IMO.
  12. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand why you seem so negative to Joshua Farris. He won his JGP by a large margin, almost the same total score as Nathan Chen, although Jason Brown was more than 30 points behind...
    I love Jason Brown, but IMO, he will be the next Shawn Sawyer, ie, a spectacular skater, amazing and interesting, but not that successful in term of results.
  13. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Realistically he'll need a 3a and a quad to be a factor on the senior level, and as of now, his 3a is not yet reliable and he's never even tried a quad (in competition). Because Josh has landed both in competition and has gotten the 3a to a reliable point, he has the edge for now. I don't think anyone doubts Jason's abilities, but where he's turning 18 soon and the 3a still seems a major issue for him, time is ticking and im sure some are wondering if that jump, and a quad, will ever truly be in his arsenal.
  14. LilJen

    LilJen Well-Known Member

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    I just hope they can all stay healthy and injury free. And that Jason will own that 3A soon so that he can be on a similar technical footing as the others!
  15. query5

    query5 New Member

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    asked the USFSA who they will cheat for , not who the public wants.
  16. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Right now it appears Brown will be the least successful. Unfortunately, jumps count a great deal, particularly in men's skating. In today's skating landscape, if you are a male competing at the senior level and don't own a 3Axel and a quad, you are gunning for 15th in the World Championships, tops. Plus, it doesn't look too bright for him that at the age of 17, he hasn't even landed the 3Axel cleanly in competition once and has never even attempted a quad in competition. :( I really would love to see him prove any naysayers wrong though. He's a terrific stylist and seems to be a great guy! :)

    It's way too early to tell for Chen, who hasn't even passed the age that the puberty monster usually attacks most viciously. The puberty monster doesn't only claim female victims, sadly. :(

    Farris's future at the moment appears the most predictably optimistic, in my opinion. I think he's way more talented than Lysacek and Weir were at the age of 17.
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2012
  17. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    ^^ I agree about Farris. I think what he really needs to do at this point is to learn how to maximize his points under CoP. He is strong in jumps, spins, and footwork, his PCS are among the highest of all the junior men competing internationally, yet I feel like his scores, particularly his FS scores, are always a bit lower than I feel like he should be capable of achieving with his current skill set. Maybe it's the fact that he tends to have some mistakes in his FS, but even so, I think with a more CoP savvy program layout, he could boost his scores in the FS a bit, so that with mistakes he can still be in the 140s, and when near clean in the 150s. Obvious ways he could do this would be moving a second combo to the 2nd half (3lz-2t would make sense since it is not a particularly difficult combo for him), switching the 3lo at the end which he tends to under-rotate with another jump at the beginning so he can attempt it on fresh legs, changing the 3f-2t-2lo combo to a 3-1/2lo-3 combo, which would allow him to add a 2a in there somewhere and still attempt the same number of triples, putting an extra jumping pass in the 2nd half, and being vigilant about getting his spin and step levels (it seems like he'll commonly get lvl3 on a spin and lvl2 on steps when we know he is easily capable of the higher level, with +GOE even). Of course, all this could hurt his consistency, in which case it's not worth it, I just feel like it's not that uncommon to see skaters score mid 130s-mid 140s (what he earned for his last two FS) without attempting a quad or two 3a, sometimes without even any 3a, so theoretically, given his capabilities and planned layout, Josh should be able to score higher, and if he can, then watch out for him at Nationals!
  18. leapfrogonice

    leapfrogonice Active Member

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    Without a technical foundation, in senior men's, I just feel like so much of the rest of the factors don't matter enough. Right now it is looking like Chen has the equipment to keep on progressing technically though it is still sooo early in his physical development.
  19. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Farris is fully aware and acknowledges in interviews that he needs and wants to improve on the artistic side of his skating. There's still time for that. Besides, Evgeni Plushenko, Evan Lysacek, and Patrick Chan all skate through the music all the time in their competitive programs and it never hurts their PCS scores. I really don't think the judges focus as much as they should on the musical interpretation component of the PCS, which is a shame.
  20. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Johnny Weir was amazing by 17. I think I prefered him at this time. ;)
  21. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I'm very aware of the fact that there are A LOT of skaters who skate through the music and get high scores. But it doesn't mean that I want them to.
  22. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

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    Farris got my vote, but I think also Chen will be successful in seniors. Of course Brown has chances, too, but in this moment his 3 axel does not look very promising, in my opinion.
  23. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Wow, that is so different from the way I see it.
    I think Farris is quite artistic already. He is a classicist, for sure, more self- contained than some skaters, but with a great ear for music and a very attractive precision of movement. I was just remarking yesterday on how well the second half of his LP is constructed and how well he "flows" with it. Which version did you watch? The ISU Lake Placid video is out of sync and thus makes no sense. To get the right impression, one needs either to watch Icenetwork video of Lake Placid LP or the most recent JGP LP in Bled. http://youtu.be/Ec0vwjBlQnE
    What I see is that Joshua times his movements, their speed and amplitude, very precisely to the length of musical phrases, which is the mark of somebody who listens attentively and it cannot be faked. Starting from 2:40- it is not busy, and I love it that way, because the broadness of movement mirrors the broadness of music, and it's timed very well.
    ... and if Rachmaninov program is simply not to your liking, consider Josh's SPs from last year or this year.
  24. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I watched the Slovenia JGP one and I still felt pretty much the same. I guess it's a difference in what we both look for in skating.
  25. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Quizas, quizas, quizas:), though I don't think it'll hold true in every case.
  26. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    I'm very :( at the lack of faith in Jason.
  27. TheGirlCanSkate

    TheGirlCanSkate New Member

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    Chen is amazing to watch live. He has a speed and grace that I think will continue to mature. His musicality feels very natural.

    While growth may happen, with his foundation, I think it will be a rough season or two but he is committed to get pushing through it.
  28. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Why do you care what others think of him? (especially in a poll thread in the Trash Can?)

    I don't believe this fun item has been posted on FSU... Nathan Chen recently made the Oct. 1st issue of Sports Illustrated's "Faces in the Crowd" :)cheer: for the inclusion of a figure skater!): http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/scorecard/faces/2012/10/1/index.html
    P.S. For fans like me who have followed the careers of many young skaters through the years, I've learned to appreciate their talents "in the moment" and to appreciate their accomplishments as they happen.

    Some fans will always want to project into the future and predict greatness (or not), but winning one JGP gold medal, or any medal, is an amazing achievement even if a skater never reaches the same level of senior international success.

    I define "success" for any skater as being able to maximize, as much as possible with regard to their individual circumstances, his/her potential as an athlete and competitor, and not by the number of medals they win.
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2012
  29. TheGirlCanSkate

    TheGirlCanSkate New Member

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    Some fans will always want to project into the future and predict greatness (or not), but winning one JGP gold medal, or any medal, is an amazing achievement even if a skater never reaches the same level of senior international success.

    Nathan and his mom sat with me and my daughter for an event and they were both very gracious. That really colors my opinion as well! I do agree, it is wonderful to just enjoy the "now".
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think there's a lack of faith, I think most people just don't want to count their chickens before they hatch, so to speak. Because Jason doesn't have a consistent 3a yet and no rumor of training a quad has even been mentioned, I think most people are just developing a wait and see approach toward him. It's not a question of talent, which he obviously has in spades. It's just in comparison to someone like Chen, who at barely 13 has already had more success with the 3a than Jason at nearly 18, or Josh, who has had a pretty consistent and high quality 3a for awhile now and has shown he's capable of a beautiful 4t in competition, there's less concrete material to base projections on. Nathan has a lot of growing up to do, but for Josh, he has the jumps already, it's mostly a matter of building up further power, consistency, and artistry, which is easier to assume will happen than Jason mastering the 3a and 4t in a short term frame of reference. Does that make sense? I really like Jason and think his skating is just so unique and dancey, but I'd be more confident if he had jumps like Josh, who I find quite artistic already (though I realize I'm in the minority who think that at this point).
  31. mossop

    mossop New Member

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    Joshua Farris, Joshua Farris. He's got the jumps and artistry. He is on the ball. :rollin:
  32. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Really? Despite even the fact you too evinced a "lack of faith in Jason."


    Ha ha, yes indeed. Johnny was even amazing at 12 when he began skating, and at 16 when he became Junior World champion. Different eras, folks, different rules, different requirements, different training demands and different expectations.

    Johnny was at his peak at ages 19 - 24 perhaps, and he's come back at the age of 28, and he's still competitive, altho' physically his best days are behind him. Yet, he's still landing difficult jumps, just not with the same seemingly easy, effortless panache.

    Re the poll: Each one of these budding young skaters are unique in their own way and they will each develop at their own pace and their futures are all said and done, ... unpredictable. After all, this is Figure Skating, innit?
  33. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Jason is just that there's so much that needs to be accomplished technically if he wants to have a shot at being competition for the big guns. It's pretty much standard for international contenders among the men on the senior level to be attempting a quad in their SPs, and then either a quad and two 3As, two quads and one 3A, and now even some are going for two quads and two 3As, in the FS. Maybe this will change after Sochi, but if it doesn't, Jason has a lot of work to do. Whereas for Josh I think he could be attempting that kind of content with some success as early as next season. As for Jason, realistically that will take a few years at least, if he even manages to truly master any of a 3A, 4t, or 4S at all. And now he's getting dinged for flutzing too, which he really can't afford with his limited technical arsenal at this point. I think he might have a hard time trying to defend his title at the JGPF honestly, and that's even with Han Yan most likely not being there, just where, going off of scores, Farris and Kovtun are head and shoulders ahead of him at this point. It's not just technically either, going off of numbers Brown is unlikely to have a PCS margin on either of those two to serve as a buffer, and might even lag a bit behind them even in that department. Even Jin despite being so young and coltish, already beat Jason once due to his superior technical abilities. Tanaka and Hino are prone to mistakes and aren't so strong artistically, but at least they both have 3a, and for Hino, his is huge, gorgeous, and really consistent. Brown's 3a was pretty close in Turkey, but pretty close isn't good enough, he needs it solid, consistent, and have 2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad which he will also need to be competitive on the senior level and maybe even to medal at JGPF or JW this season.
  34. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Like I said "different eras, different rules, different expectations," but seriously what else must Jason do before it's really, really, really too late? Jason's musicality, artistry, and unique movement style rivals that of many men on the senior level. Yadda, yadda re 3-axel, and demands that Jason must have "2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad..." Gosh, you guys are such serious taskmasters. Do you have Kori Ade's number on speed dial? It won't be the "end of the world" if Jason doesn't medal at JGPF or JW this season (but he is likely to anyway).

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy each moment, each season, each wonderful performance from all these guys and many others. F* expectations. :lol:

    Most of us don't even know the true meaning of "success" anyways. Have fun Jason, Joshua, and Nathan. Don't allow the pressure or the demands (especially from anxious, overwrought fans) get to you or knock you off your stride.

    * I heard recently about a young blogger who created a blog entitled, F* I'm in my twenties! :eek: It was turned into a book, and the blogger is currently in talks for a possible television series.

    Jason could write a blog entitled, F* I'm seventeen without a solid 3-axel (close but no cigar) and no quad in sight, as of yet anyways! :p

    I recall that Patrick Chan was still perfecting his 3-axel at the age of 17 in the senior ranks, and that he did not even start training a quad until at least three years later. I know times have changed, especially after 2010 Olympics, Plush's ire re necessity of macho quad, and Chan's subsequent mastery of quad. But ya know what, try as many may, they will never develop the musicality, artistry and charisma of Jason Brown, or Dai Takahashi, or Jeremy Abbott. Dai was a diamond in the rough at age 17, and he was nowhere near possessing the artistry and presentation skills that Jason has and already possessed even at age 15. Jason is still young yet and he's not "done" yet. ;)

    FYI:

    Jason Brown -- 17
    Nathan Chen -- 13
    Joshua Farris -- 17
  35. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    No, I didn't. I said that at the moment I couldn't give him the top spot. Read my post again, I'm quite convinced he'll be an amazing Senior. I just had to give top spot to Joshua because technically Joshua is further advanced.
  36. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    "You must spread some reputation around before giving it to aftershocks again."

    Just to clarify one thing - he HAS, in fact, tried a quad in training. I remember reading in an interview that some days when his triple toe is feeling especially good they'll strap on the harness and he'll have a go. Clearly he's not seriously training it yet but obviously he's not a total stranger to it either.
  37. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Fair points. Anyways, my post was more in reference of, if Jason wants to have a realistic shot at making the Olympic team IN SOCHI - he has a lot of work to do in a short amount of time. But these quad obsessed cycles seem to come in waves, and maybe after Sochi things will calm down a bit, they won't be as big of a deal or key to being competitive on the senior ranks as a guy. People might get injured from pushing too hard to get all these ridiculous technical skills, CoP could change again, etc. Plus the scene should be drastically different post Sochi, as almost certainly Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Joubert, Takahashi, Plushenko, Menshov, Oda, Verner, and Voronov will have retired by then, and it's possible Chan, Brezina, Kozuka, Rippon, Miner, Amodio, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, etc could be finished after 2014 too (and possibly Fernandez though I hope not, or even Hanyu if he wins/medals in Sochi...again hopefully not though).

    Realistically, Jason and Joshua are probably aiming to make the 2018 Olympic team and maybe considering sticking around through 2022, and obviously 2018-2022 is when Chen will be looking to be at his best. So that's a long ways off. And 5 years is plenty of time for Jason to develop a solid 3a and quad(s), if he even ends up needing them at all based on what the field and technical standards are looking like post-Sochi and heading into the Pyeongchang cycle. So yes, there is really no reason for these boys to be freaking out and pushing themselves too hard now. Well, with the exception of Josh because he may have a slight chance to make the 2014 Olympic team if he continues to have success with his 4t, 3a combos, and continues to improve artistically (but again pushing too hard is never the answer, it would more be, if he happens to continue his ascent and is really a prime option for the Olympic team). But it's a crap shoot either way and there's around a dozen strong men in the US with comparable skill sets vying for what most likely will be 2 spots so the chances that someone like Joshua, who's still very young and developing into his body and as of this season is still competing on the junior level internationally with Sochi a year away, would get picked for Worlds this season and Olympics/Worlds in 2014, are slim. And further, the USFS is probably hesitant to heavily push for someone like him anyways recognizing many of the other guys in consideration will be gone after 2014, while Josh is probably a prime candidate to be a top US men for the quadrennial following that and as such his talent should be carefully nurtured rather than pushed too fast and run the risk of injury and burnout as a teenager and before the 2018 Olympics. The same goes for Jason if he has a consistent 3a and quad come 2014 Nationals.

    I think that both boys probably gave up trying to make the 2014 Olympic team though when they decided (whether it was really their decision or mostly due to the coaxing of the USFS) to stay on the JGP this season. Nathan won't even be old enough for the Olympics until 2018 and Worlds until 2015 at the earliest, so he's got all the time in the World to develop and improve, and he's already doing remarkably well. I should have started out with that in my former post, I was more talking about, if Jason wants to make it on the senior ranks between now and the 2014 Olympics/Worlds..., because that's a very different and much more daunting task than making it period, with an indefinite and much longer time frame.

    Anyhow, Chan at 17 despite his 3a issues and no quad won silver at senior Worlds, so I don't think he's a good comparison. But Jeremy Abbott is! Not that he's really fulfilled his potential at international events, but he's at least managed some good results and medals at GPs and GPFs, and I'm sure everyone recognizes and appreciates his talents. I don't think he even skated on the GP until he was like 20 or 21, and even then artistically he was nowhere near as strong as Jason and Joshua are already, and he was very inconsistent with his hard jumps like 3a and 4t, but a few years later, he was a wonderful artist even though he was in his mid 20s which many would consider an age after most men reach their prime. Different strokes for different folks.
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2012
  38. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Jeremy Abbott at 21, he was already fabulous to watch :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qq-KNVxYeU ;)
  39. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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  40. Feb

    Feb New Member

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    Chan won worlds silver at 18, not 17. He was 9th place at 17.