Which of the men do you see becoming "it" by Sochi

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by bek, May 15, 2010.

  1. bek

    bek Guest

    I've been thinking about what happens in the next quad leading into Sochi. There is a lot of talented men coming up. Kozuka, Rippon, Brezina, Florent, Fernandez, Denis Ten, the Japanese men.

    I'm wondering who everyone thinks is going to be the next star. For me, while I don't think he's the skater Kozuka or Chan is. And I don't think he's as well packaged right now as Florent or Rippon.. If I had to put my money on any of the young guys its Brezina.

    Its just he's a great jumper, and a lot of the other guys are not great jumpers. And I think he does have artistic potential too, even though his choregraphy especially needs work. If he can do those quads consistently, and manage to get the type of levels he got at worlds, I think he will start winning competitions quickly..

    My gut is telling me that he's going to have an easier time improving his PCS marks, transitions, footwork spins. etc, than someone like Chan, or Rippon will have at becoming great jumpers. Or Kozuka at developing consistency at this point too. If he can keep on getting the types of levels he got at worlds, he won't loss out to much on spins or footwork..

    I'm curious about what Frank does with Ten too. And the young man who won Juniors.
     
  2. igniculus

    igniculus Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2006
    Messages:
    8,292
    I'd add Borodulin to the mix too.

    Lovely years ahead os us! :swoon:
     
  3. Wyliefan

    Wyliefan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    17,692
    My fingers are crossed for Florent . . . but there aren't any on this list that I don't like! :)
     
  4. Jot the Dot Dot

    Jot the Dot Dot Headstrong Buzzard

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2007
    Messages:
    2,503
  5. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    7,446
    With so many, I don't think we will have the same men dominating the podium, or with one or two places "reserved" for the same one or two (as with Yags/Plush)
     
  6. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,441
    LOL-"which of the men do you see becoming 'IT'"

    Brezina was third in the euros free skate and third in the worlds free skate in his first senior year. At the Olympics maybe because of nerves he doubled or singled some jumps very very uncharastically but he really is great at triple jumps most of the time-like 90% of the time.
     
  7. Lanna

    Lanna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2006
    Messages:
    8,655
    Yuzuru Hanyu :swoon: I look forward to him and Kozuka in the upcoming quad :cheer2:
     
  8. ryanbfan

    ryanbfan New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2009
    Messages:
    800
    Keegan.. and it's not too biased because I thought that when I first saw him skate.
     
  9. Fallcolor

    Fallcolor New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2009
    Messages:
    715
    I would really like to say Adrian S, but basic skating is one thing he can certainly improve upon if he wants to move up the chain! :p
    Amodio, Hanyu, Brezina, and Rippon are the ones to watch for too, among the obvious ones (Chan, Kozuka)
     
  10. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,441
    Schultheiss definitely needs to work on his steps -level 2 mostly-but judges don't give him plus GOE on anything! Also in free skates-3 jumps after the halfway point? That has to change-if he can.
     
  11. bek

    bek Guest

    See thats where I sort of disagree. Evan was able to be fairly dominanting (winning Worlds, GPF, and the Olympics) just by being fairly consistent. A lot of these guys are talented but not consistent. If someone like Brezina can add in not only consistency but something quads.....Some of these young talents are inconsistent with their triple axels-let along quads...
     
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,466
    I am not sure really. While he is not my favorite skater I think Chan might be the most likely at this point. Takahashi could be too if is able to stay healthy and stick around that long. Brezina I would also give pretty good odds to be it.

    I think Rippon is the best U.S hope for Sochi but not sure how great his chances are. I think he will have chances, just not sure how great. I am very interested in seeing how he develops.

    I would like to say Kozuka has a shot by then but I am not really sure. If Takahashi stays around his rise to being the Japanese #1 will be delayed longer and by the time it maybe happens it may already be too late. I think Hanyu is perhaps more likely in fact, and he might have a good shot by Sochi.

    Who I am pretty sure wont be is Oda who I think is more likely to fall off the Japanese World team soon then he is to win a World medal. Nor Verner who I think will stay around and maybe make a comeback to success of sorts, but will have a hard time even becoming Czech #1 again. Nor Lysacek who even if he does comeback (I dont think he will) has probably already peaked in his own skating by now, and the skating is bound to only go up from the last couple seasons which in the big events hasnt been great to put it mildly.
     
  13. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    7,446
    To me, dominant means more than "successful"; it applies to skaters whose place on a podium is close to a sure thing -- as with MK or Yags or Plush during the 6.0 era. While Evan was successful, there were also enough guys capable of beating him to prevent any one of them from dominating in that sense.
     
  14. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2004
    Messages:
    3,896
    Evan didn't really 'dominate' though. Dominate, to me, means that you own those spots. Evan won one world title and the OGM. He's barely more dominant than Jeff Buttle was upon his retirement. Someone like Yags or Plush is dominant because it was pretty safe to bet that at any given competition, each would place 1st or 2nd.

    A skater can be consistent, but that doesn't mean that they're the best ones there and will always win. Joannie Rochette isn't always the most consistent skater, but in the past 2 seasons it's been a pretty safe bet that she'd podium at any given event.

    Based on the 'up and coming' skaters and their results at events, Patrick Chan is the most consistently placed (which doesn't mean that he's a consistent jumper) because the other aspects of his skating are so good and the jumps he does, he does really well. If he keeps going as he's going, of the 'young ones' he's the dominant one with two world silver medals, regular qualifications for the GPF and 5th at the O's. If retired skaters hadn't re-instated he would have medaled (I know, no point in what-ifs). So for youngsters, he's the dominant one and if he keeps improving, is the most likely to remain so.

    But we have no idea what will happen in the next quadrennial. But if not Chan, I don't think any one skater will dominate. Some of the 'older' guys like Joubert and Verner can always sneak in there - we can't forget that in the past 7 years, Brian has podiumed at Worlds 6 times and can go from 16th at the O's to 3rd at worlds within less than a month. Some skater we have never even seen before could come out of nowhere and win 2 world titles and the OGM in the next quad for all we know.

    The mens event is so unpredictable and has been since 2006 because there are so many talented men who can mess with our minds so badly. In the last 4 years we have had 4 different world champions. I don't think there is any one 'it' for mens, unless Chan gets a consistent quad.
     
  15. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,441
    Chan also places a premium amount of jumps in the second half of his free skate. He basically does two short programs and then the second half of his free skate is jump time. It is probably much smarter for him to get those triples consistent. It's not like he has major problems doing any jumps-no bad technique there but to try to get a quad now that is risky.At this point he could probably ease up on transitions and still get high marks because of his rep. That is really cynical but he can start winning if he got those jumps and of course doing less stuff before them would help.
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Brezina, Rippon, Hanyu for sure
    Ten, Amodio, Fernandez likely
    Song, Schultheiss, Borodulin maybe
     
  17. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2002
    Messages:
    3,882
    Four years ago after the Torino Olympics I had same kind of feelings about Tomas Verner´s success and predicted him for the 2010 Olympic champion, LOL...

    In this point now I think that Ten working with Frank C. would have great chances to become something. Of course it depends on whether he is a really hard worker and has self-discipline and drive.

    Evan dominated in 2009-2010, because he was the one who beat others and won Worlds, GPF and Olympics. After 1984 there has been no reigning World champion managing to win the Olympics in men´s discipline.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2010
  18. Zokko!

    Zokko! Comansnala?

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2003
    Messages:
    2,314
    Amateur Lysacek :yikes: :scream: was just lucky 'cause the judges had a "favour" :bribe: for him ... he'll still remain as one of the most ridiculous ..."... Olympic ... "Champion" ..." ... for decades.

    As for the question, the talented guys, I'd say Rippon, Ten, Amodio, Borodulin.
     
  19. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,448
    I agree with your list. Those guys are amazing.
    But I didn't see very good ones at 2010 Junior World. We'll see next season.
     
  20. MOIJTO

    MOIJTO Banned Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,173
    Four years is a long time and all kinds of things can happen. As far as the "IT" factor. I would say that there are a few who have it now even though they haven't seen a senior world podium.
     
  21. bek

    bek Guest

    Chan has problems with the triple axel (it may be getting better) but its clearly still an issue jump for him. Also, I brought up Brezina because I think with his quads, (if he does them consistency) and he can continue to get the decent levels he was getting, I think that he could become very dangerous for everyone. He was 3rd in the free skate without a 3/3 and without his quads, if he puts them in his TES will shoot way up, as will his PCS. Plus with the new rules about being able to do two quads in the short (although I don't think he's ready for it now...)
     
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,466
    4 years ago who would have ever predicted Lysacek to be the 2010 Olympic Champion though.
     
  23. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2002
    Messages:
    3,882
    Maybe one should have watched his "Carmen" fs from 2006 Olympics with more thought? Anyway, that was a clear indication of his huge fighting spirit (now in hindsight, LOL).
     
  24. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2009
    Messages:
    14,083
    Takahiko Kozuka, Yuzuru Hanyu, Javier Fernández, Denis Ten, Adam Rippon, Florent Amodio, Patrick Chan, Michal Brezina, etc. I hope Nobunari stays until 2014!

    :cheer2:
     
  25. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,448
    Talk about Ilia Kulik in 1998, but not about Lysacek in 2010.
    Lysacek was already World medalist in 2005 and was already a medal contender in 2006. He bombed his SP but skated very LP in the LP. So, his Olympic Gold in 2010 is not such a surprise. ;)
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    ITA. He was also world champion last year so he was clearly a favorite to win, if Plushenko and Lambiel had not come back he probably would have been the biggest favorite to win OGM.
     
  27. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,124
    yeah, but who did deserve to be named an Olympic Champion in Vancouver anyway? that men's event was the most disappointing thing in skating for me in years.

    as for the guys aiming for Sochi, they're all fresh air, capable of achieving a lot in the future, but to be honest none of them makes me anyhow excited. Well, Fernadez, yes, but I guess he's the only one. I guess it's just difficult for a male skater to win me these days :p I would say none of them stands out yet, not in a way to take your breath away with his own extraordinary style. But that's just my opinion - I'm still waiting for these boys to develop.
     
  28. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,441
    I am sure Brezina is not changing his free skate for next season choreographically to see what happens if he adds a quad or a 3/3 or does more jumps after the halfway point. All of these are possible technical advancements or for more bonus points. I would be surprised if many skaters added quads to the short when so few do quads in the long successfully. Short program seems to be for most the time to be conservative.
     
  29. bek

    bek Guest

    Brezina has said that he will be adding the quad next season. (maybe both). I don't see why the eventual plan couldn't be to put the quads in the short, but I"m thinking if he does that it won't be next season. As for jumps in the second half, he already does a lot of those...

    It's not just that, but Lyseck also was one of the most consistent skaters too and one of the better competitors. He struggled with the short early in his career, but he was very good at shooting up in the standings in the long. He was on the world podium for two years in a row before Daisuke. Once Lambiel and Joubert started struggling with consistency/whatever else. It really shouldn't be that surprising that Lyseck started taking advantage. Sure the guy had luck, and no he's not as good as Yagudin. But I think that a guy winning all of the major international competitions from Worlds to the Olympics is pretty darn dominanting. Or its more of a sign that a lot of these guys struggle with consistency/delivering under pressure.
     
  30. Fandango

    Fandango New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2004
    Messages:
    637
    Agree, it was devastating to watch how my most favourite (Olympic) discipline ended in such a disaster. :(