Which of the 4 World Champions is most likely to not win Olympic Gold next year

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by judgejudy27, Mar 17, 2013.

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Which of the 4 World Champions is most likely to not win Olympic Gold next year

Poll closed Jan 11, 2014.
  1. Yu Na Kim

    7.8%
  2. Voloszhar & Trankov

    9.1%
  3. Davis & White

    35.6%
  4. Chan

    47.5%
  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    All 4 skaters that won Worlds this year look like heavy favorites for the Olympic Gold. It could be the first time since ice dancing joined the Olympics in 1976 that the reigning World Champions win all 4 individual events. Which of the 4 World Champions do you think at this point is the most likely to be upset and not win the Olympic Gold next year.
     
  2. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Well it can't be Chan since he can fall numerous times in a program and still win. Patrick needed to watch those other champions this weekend to see how you really win.
     
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I had to think awhile who to vote for. I surprised myself and voted for Chan, which seems strange as evidence keeps being shown he can fall 5 times or more and win over clean skates by the next best skaters. However it has alot to do with the fact I feel V&T and Kim are almost a lock. I dont think D&W are a lock over V&M, but after dominating them this season, and thoroughly beating them on home ice, they will be the clear favorites even over V&M going into the season, but I am not sure if the judges want to see a non Russian or European team defend the Oly Gold just yet. Chan has a number of things that could go against him even with the judges undying adoration of him, the Canadian curse at the Olympics, an unfriendly environment, the increasingly louder voice about his scores and victories, that he seemingly has already peaked in his abilities and is already on technical decline, and Fernandez, Hanyu, and Ten all imprving and shooting for the top spot even with the judging heavily stacked against them at the moment (you wont see an oldie like Plushenko, Takahashi, or in the unlikely event he even returns and makes it to Sochi at all Lysacek win, I am sure of that much). Essentialy though it was just hard to see any of the other 3 not wining so by default Chan was the pick. I have a funny feeling Fernandez is going to be next years Olympic Champion as well.
     
  4. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    LOL 18 votes already and not a single vote for either V&T or Kim.
     
  5. bmcg

    bmcg Well-Known Member

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    Not a difficult choice at all:

    1) Davis and White: There have the smallest margin of victory this year over V&M. They don't have the "clean buffer" the other three champions have.
    2) Chan: He has his ups and downs. If he skates clean he is clearly superior as witnessed by SP but the judges have shown this year (yes even in the FD) that anyone who can step up and produce will be placed over a faulty Chan.
    3) V&T. If clean they will win. S&S can beat them with good programs.
    4) Yuna. Most likely to repeat. She is a robot.
     
  6. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    I voted for V/T because ... I'm naive ... actually it was a mousing error. I think Ice Dance followed by the Men will have the most unpredictable results.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2013
  7. lauren329

    lauren329 Member

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    Yuna- I don't think she's beatable when she's on and I think she will be on at the Olympics. Her jumps have not left her. She's saying she feels less pressure having already won. Kostner may beat her on PCS but I don't think she will skate 2 clean programs. Mao- could possibly upset if the 3A is perfect but that's a big ask. Yuna will repeat.

    Chan- I think he will need to be cleaner at the Olympics. I do not think the ISU will want what happened Friday to happen when millions of people are watching. I also don't think he can count on big mistakes from all the main contenders again. If he is decently clean, I think he will probably win.

    D&W- This is the one I am most emotionally invested in. I so hope they win- its not locked up by any means. In my mind, they have been the most dominant team since Tessa's injury and should go into this Olympics as three time World Champs and clear favorites. I am by no means a Virtue and Moir hater- I thought they were the brilliant, deserving winners in 2010, I loved Hip Hip Chin Chin and I actually loved Carmen for the first time yesterday. On the one hand, I could see the consensus being that the pendulum has swung over to D&W after this season. On the other side, there could be some chatter that 2014 is V/M's turn again & with Meryl & Charlie making noise about staying after Sochi and Tessa & Scott making it pretty clear that this is the goodbye, I could see them getting this one. Particularly if they do a ballet type routine in Russia. Ice dance judging is so weird and both teams are so good. If all is fair, it will come down to who executes their levels the best on the two days. I can't believe it seems like they will all stay training in Canton. Next year is going to be insane in ice dance.
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    These would be my odds roughly now:

    Pairs Gold- Voloszhar & Trankov 85%, Savchenko & Szolkowy 13%, Duhamel & Radford 1%, all others combined 1%. S&S arent winning on V&T`s home ice now no matter how well they skate unless V&T have some real problems, and S&S have bigger consistency issues than V&T do so...

    Ladies Gold- Kim 70%, Kostner 15%, Asada 10%, all others combined 5%. Kim`s to lose again, just like Vancouver. I also doubt now that Kim is reigning World Champion after a dominating performance again you will even see things like Kostner occasionaly getting higher PCS (even if it could be justified). The judges will be fully back on the Yu Na bandwagon. Mao`s current jump layout is completely unrealistic for her to ever do cleanly, and doing it 80% clean is the equivalent of doing it clean. She is in a tough spot though as compared to Kim and Kostner she will undoubtably get lower GOE and PCS, and the only way she can hope to win other than hoping for errors is to the tougher stuff.

    Dance Gold- Davis & White 70%, Virtue & Moir 30%, all others combined 0% (maybe someone sneaking in for silver would be 2 or 3%, but beating both, no way).

    Mens Gold- I am not really sure how to designate the odds at his point except they would be divided somehow between Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu, maybe some small odds for Ten and Takahashi, and everyone else combined after that would be something like 1% total, and Chan`s percentage would be lower than 70.
     
  9. Cachoo

    Cachoo Well-Known Member

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    I always sense danger when people talk about a "sure thing." So I voted for Yuna. Chan is brilliant but mistake-prone, D/W and V/M are pretty evenly matched and V/T have the pressure of home ice. So with all of that why pick Yuna? I can see Mao, Carolina and a few others preparing technically EPIC programs to try and catch her. And I think it can be done. Sometimes it is better to be the hunter than the hunted.
     
  10. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    So what you're saying is that B/S will now magically start outscoring BOTH V/M and D/W and surprise everyone by winning OGM over those teams? If one can be certain of any Olympic outcome a year ahead, it is that the ice dance gold will go to Tessa and Scott or Meryl and Charlie, whether the judges want to see it happen or not. End of story.

    I'd say all this year's champions have a great shot at an Olympic gold, but they all will need to do their absolute best to gain it.
     
  11. TheIronLady

    TheIronLady New Member

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    Mousing error? LOL!

    I think Yu Na is vulnerable for a couple reasons. The event will have some new blood, and Kostner or Mao can unseat her. And is Miki Ando retired?
     
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    No I did not imply that at all, in fact I think there is 0% chance of someone other than D&W or V&M winning. However the judges might rather D&W win as they dont have the Oly Gold yet, and only if they win V&M wont defend and wont match G&Ps feat.


    I had to chuckle at this point only since you mention new blood but then go on to mention Kostner, Asada, and even Ando, LOL!
     
  13. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Remember that Chan can fall five times, judges will give him the Gold, because they LOVE him so much. :p
     
  14. lauren329

    lauren329 Member

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    But can they execute these technically demanding programs? I do not think we will see 2 clean programs from Mao or Kostner at the Olympics. If anyone will out-technical Yuna, it might be just Gracie.
     
  15. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    Oh, got it. Thanks for making it clear for me, now it makes a lot of sense.
     
  16. lauren329

    lauren329 Member

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    Is it wrong that I would be okay with that provided both skate clean? They are both brilliant, I want them to each have an OGM.
     
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    No it is not wrong at all to feel that way, and I actually think D&W are pulling ahead and are the slightly better team now, even though I prefer the general style and am a bigger fan of V&M.

    I actually agree with that although I dont think she would have any chance to beat Kim barring several falls as Kim will cream her in PCS (and best her in GOE most likely too, despite that Gold gets some good GOE on her clean jumps).
     
  18. mrinalini

    mrinalini Active Member

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    I chose Chan. He talks big and is held up everywhere else, but you have to absolutely hit it at the Olympics to win and I don't think he is strong enough to withstand that kind of pressure.

    I wasn't sure about Kim before this Worlds, but boy, am I ever now. It is such a shame that Kostner can't get her act together because she is the only one who can challenge Kim and if both nail everything, I think the judges would be more inclined to crown an European as the next OC. Asada and everyone else have no hope because they have too many niggling flaws which will bring their scores down no matter what they do.
     
  19. lauren329

    lauren329 Member

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    Completely agree. I never thought that Gracie could beat Kim, just that if anyone will outscore her technically my money is on USNationals Gracie over Kostner or Asada
     
  20. skoppa

    skoppa Member

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    they are not three time world champions only two time 2011 and now 2013 same as V/M 2010 and 2012
     
  21. lauren329

    lauren329 Member

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    I'm aware of that-the sentence said "in my mind, they should." I should have been more clear- I felt they should have won in 2012 and SHOULD BE going into the Olympics as consecutive three time world Champs. I realize that not everyone share that opinion though. I do think we're all lucky to have these 2 great teams for another Olympics.
     
  22. iloveemoticons

    iloveemoticons Well-Known Member

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    I would be pissed if Kim won with falls over a totally clean Gold. Gold's jumps are as quality as Kim's, and though Gold's artistry isn't quite there yet, it's still okay I think. Kim already starts with one less triple in her program. If she won with falls over Gold skating a clean 7 triple program, that would not be right, IMO. However, Kim has nerves of steel and is the least likely of anyone to fall, so yeah, Kim will win handily.
     
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well the judges wont even be looking at Gold vs someone like Kim unless several people between them fall probably, and not just Kim (or Gold improves alot in a year which is possible of course). Anyway the point I was responding to was only about the TES and I could see that being true.
     
  24. bek

    bek Guest

    Well in all fairness if we look at all four skates... One of those skates was not like the others.....But then again that one is also given the most judging gifts.
     
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    You didnt cast your vote in my poll.
     
  26. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    :lol:

    Never is there a scientifically accurate poll on FSU, I know. But this one's hilarious because it seems as if all the Chan and V/M lovers are voting for D/W, and all the D/W lovers and Chanflation critics are voting for Chan.

    S/S lovers are shrugging their shoulders and putting a finger to the wind. Russian baby ballerina lovers, and Mao lovers are shaking their heads, while Yunabots are grinning from ear to ear. Carolina has nothing to worry about.

    U.S. ladies are celebrating a small but satisfying victory. Max is loaded for bear, and Ross' mining for top ten faltered, but he's still a Boss human being and a mighty fine skater. :cool: Richard, Adam, Jeremy, et al, are sighing but probably taking it like men in comparison to ...

    Chan desiring to prove to everyone and their brother why he deserved each and every last one of his gifted marks, even to the degree of throwing dirt on D10's and Javi's achievements. Chan's fans are still pumped about his sp, but many are still complaining that he needs "a real coach." D/R are giddy that all their hard work paid off and they're breathing it all in and are likely determined to wisely take things one day at a time.

    I wonder if S/S and S are planning to ritually bury their costumes along with Latin Bolero music and strategically plot to come up with something extra special for next season? Certainly they need to pray for renewed physical health and a miracle in Sochi. V/T's smiles contain a grain of salt partly due to their tumultuous season. Grief is never faraway and life is short.

    Enjoy life and victories while the sun shines all. What will be, will be. :)
     
  27. bek

    bek Guest

    Its impossible to predict. I think only T/D's is better.
     
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Do you mean only Torvill & Deans chances to win the upcoming Olympics going into 84 was better than everyone of the 4 skaters or teams on the poll to win next years Olympics. If so you are probably correct. :lol:
     
  29. bek

    bek Guest

    No post was wrong thread. I think only T/D Bolero was better than Kostners.

    Its impossible to predict because injuries happen, skaters improve etc. And just plain bad skates. I think Patrick is in someways the worst shape because he is making terrible choices... I.e his coaching decisions, I also think he doesn't seem to have people telling him how it is. I.e I think I probably had as many mistakes other guys... I think its a really bad receipe because I don't know how long the judges are going to be willing to take the backlash... However I think Patrick also is the most favored.

    I think V/T are also the most favored too given some of their scores and being Russia's best shot at gold... However who knows how they will skate?

    Kim was spectacular here but I can see a perfect storm of someone else winning she's the best competitor though...

    As for D/W and V/M. Frankly I'm not convinced D/W are better. I actually very much prefer V/M because I think they are more "dancer like" however I do think that they got complacent and also need to get better at executing vs D/W.
     
  30. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    It happens ;) . . . I slipped in an ice skating poll :D