Which new senior lady can break up the top 5 at worlds 2013?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by DimaToe, Jan 2, 2013.

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Which lady makes the top 5?

  1. Adelina Sotnikova

    6 vote(s)
    4.6%
  2. Gracie Gold (if she is there)

    13 vote(s)
    10.0%
  3. Kaetlyn Osmond

    27 vote(s)
    20.8%
  4. Elizabeta Tuktamisheva

    81 vote(s)
    62.3%
  5. Zijun Li

    3 vote(s)
    2.3%
  6. Other (explain who)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. DimaToe

    DimaToe Well-Known Member

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    So going around threads on FSU, it seems most people think that the top 5 in fake London will consist of Yuna Kim, Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Ashley Wagner, and Akiko Suzuki. I actually think that one of the new senior ladies in London could likely come in and ruin the party for the veterans. Which lady do you think that could be? if you chose other explain who and why?

    I chose Liza Tuktamisheva, I think she could outjump some of the veterans to the top 5, Her technical content is there, and although her season has been up and down, I see hunger in her to be the best, and add that to the confidence boost that she likely got now that she is Russia's #1 lady, I think she will be a force at worlds.

    So what do you think?

    PS: I know i wrote Liza's name incorrectly in the poll... sorry :shuffle:
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Elizabeta Tuktamisheva definitely can. If she keeps going as she is now, including improving her PCS, she could be a real medal contender for Sochi. I think a medal is a real long shot for her this year, but top 5 is definitely possible. She is more consistent than most of the top ladies, and with high TES standard and improving PCS she will pick off any of them that have problems likely.

    Sotnikova could make top 5 if she has a great competition, but that seems unlikely for her based on her season.

    I dont see Gold top 5 this year. Top 7 would be her max. Same with Osmond. Zijun Li would be lucky to make top 10.

    As for the projected top 5 I could see Suzuki easily being pushed out of that top 5. IMO her career peaked with her World bronze last year and it is all a gradual downhill from here. Especialy as Japanese Nationals might give them reason to push for the younger Murakami as their #2 now, as even if she isnt a better skater now, they probably still have more hopes for her for the future, and want to start rewarding her for her visible improvements in the last year and giving her more incentive to keep going that direction.
     
  3. 4rkidz

    4rkidz GPF Barcelona here I come

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    I put Katelyn Osmond.. apparently she is as consistent in her practices of her triple triples as she is in her competitions.. I personally observed her at her senior debut and she was a rock - no nerves.. the fact that worlds is in Canada and will have the emotional momentum ;) I think she has an outside chance of breaking into the top five.
     
  4. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Osmond. Boo the haterz she's a strong consistent jumper and she's so energetic. Sotnikova and Gold need to stop making so many silly mistakes if they are to be taken seriously. Tuktamysheva also has the goods and is a lot more consistent so I think she can be top 5 too. Li is good but still very coltish and a bit junior at this point IMO, I think she can make the top 10 but top 5 might take another year or two of growing up.
     
  5. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    I'd put my money on a clean Osmond in her home country.
     
  6. AliasJohnDoe

    AliasJohnDoe Spin Alissa Spin!!!

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    I'd like to see all 5 of them take over the Top 5 at Worlds 2013!!!! :D

    Or at least fill out the Top 10.
     
  7. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I'd personally like to see none of the above in the top 5..... but Elizaveta has the best chance imo. Next best would be Kaetlyn Osmond. My ideal top 5 (in no particular order) is Kim, Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, Kostner (funny how that works). I could definitely ditch Kostner for Elizaveta or Osmond though. They'd have to earn it though.

    :)
     
  8. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    With Osmond in Canada, if she goes clean I'd imagine she'll get the hometown boost...that's not to take anything away from her though. She's my favorite newbie this year: she's got the 3-3, good spins, stand out performance ability...she could shake things up. I think she has a great shot at making that final group (especially if she knocks her SP out of the park) and has a good shot at top 5 with a clean skate if others make mistakes. IDK if she'll get the same PCS she got at SC...I think a lot of that will be determined by how she delivers her programs.

    Gracie has an outside shot too based solely on her jumps. Her spins are good as are her transitions but she's at the bottom of the list when it comes to all other areas of PCS. She needs work but as long as she delivers her technical content she should be in the top 7.

    IF (and that's a huge IF) she lands her all her jumps Adelina will make the top 5...everyone else would have to be perfect for her not to sneak in with two clean performances. Horrible music edit of her LP aside, she's got what she needs: monstrous jumps, the 3-3 in both programs, difficult spins, lovely presence and that spark when she's on. Of this list of girls, she's the only one who could probably come close to knocking off one of the established skaters IF she skates well. However, Adelina has been a bundle of nerves this season so the likelihood of her skating two clean back-to-back performances is pretty damn low as of now...

    Liza T has been getting stronger all season, she's got her 3Lz-3T back and in both of her programs, and she has a 2A-3T too. She often places high in terms of TES but she loses points on spins and other areas. Her PCS have been getting better but I don't know if she'd earn enough TES to make up for her lack PCS. Still, she could put up a good fight for 5th place if she skates well.

    Zijun Li should make the top 10 if she skates well but not the top 5. She's got the jumps as well but she's still rather little and her skating doesn't leave as big of an impact as the other ladies do. I hope the puberty monster is kind to her and she retains her jumps. A bit more height and a more mature presence will really make her stand out more. I still love her though and I hope she does well.


    With Mao, Yu-Na, Carolina, Ashley and Akiko in the competition, all of these newbies will have to bring their A++ game to crack the top 5. Mao, Yu-Na, Carolina and Ashley all earn high PCS (Akiko's never seem to be high enough) so that gives them a little wiggle room when it comes to mistakes. The newbies would need to be nearly perfect to overtake one of them. If all of the top names skate cleanly (which is highly unlikely) there is no room at the top for any of the newbies...
     
  9. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Once again, history has proven anything is possible, and I do mean anything.

    As long as one doesn't listen to the Debbie Downers that is. :p

    So on that score, I say any of them that makes it to Worlds has the possibility to make top 5, and I sincerely believe that.

    "A dream is a wish your heart makes" ~ Walt Disney
    "Having a dream, I will go up into the sky" ~ Maynard Thomson
    "How does a kid from Coos Bay, with one leg longer than the other win races? All my life people have been telling me 'You're too small Pre', 'You're not fast enough Pre', 'Give up your foolish dream Steve.' But they forgot something, I HAVE TO WIN!" ~ Steve Prefontaine
     
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  10. alchemy void

    alchemy void Well-Known Member

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    Osmond and Tuktamysheva! Two revelations for me this year.
     
  11. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Hmmm....

    Firstly, I think if someone breaks that group of five up, it'll be Kiira Korpi. She gets great PCS and by consistently going for the 3-3 combination in both programs, as well as attempting a seven triple free skate gives her a TES boost if she lands it relatively cleanly (one or two URs/edge calls only, no downgrades/falls).

    Of the remaining ladies, I pretty much agree with the poll. Tuktamisheva and Osmond by far rank ahead. Sotnikova and Gold are next. Than Li.

    The top ten is gonna be an achievement for these girls, though (along with Murakami and Meite). Indeed, the struggle to get two spots for Canada, China and France is going to be insane.
     
  12. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I think the top 5 will probably be those big 5 you mentioned in the OP, no new senior ladies, BUT if a new senior lady is to get in there it's probably going to be Elizaveta. I'm just thinking that since she made the GPF and the others did not. Also, she had a great outing at the Russian Nats.

    Osmond is good but I think she doesn't have enough international experience to break into the top 5 just now - I'd like to see her prove me wrong though! :D
     
  13. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Tuk.

    Osmond only really needs to make top ten and she could very well make that on her own without politiking. Skate Canada would be all out politiking for Chan and V/M instead.
     
  14. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I love Mao, but I would not put my money on her. Out of the top contenders, she is the shakiest, IMO. She is good enough to win the title, but she can also drop out of the top 5.

    The skater that is likely to sneak in, if Mao falters is Tuk, if she is healthy, IMO. Osmond and Gold are still pretty new, and they may just surprise everyone, or they may finish a respectable top 10, but not top 5. I have a feeling that Adelina does not have the mental toughness yet to skate two strong performances. She could learn it in the future. Zijun Li is lovely, but I think she is a couple years away from climbing into the top echelon.

    I am not sure about Murakami (not on the list, but one of the young, upcoming skaters). She could finish in the top 10, but I am not sure she can develop into a podium finisher. She may just develop into a top 5 skater (make me eat my words, Murakami!:lol:)
     
  15. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Tuktamysheva.
    She seems to have her consistency back, and she now is well known on the circuit.
     
  16. floskate

    floskate Vacant

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    A lot of the variables here are going to come down to what PCS are awarded, as well as who the caller is. I hope Mao skates well - she's due a good Worlds after the last two years, but I agree it's by no means a certainty. But even if she does, she'll be susceptible to under-rotations and if the caller is Shin Anamo she's doomed :( In a scenario where the ladies SP is well skated and everyone is clean (I know a BIG if :lol:), the newbies will have no chance of being anything more than 6-10 just due to the PCS, but should be within striking distance for the free where we could see a lot of movement. As to who that might be, my bet would be Tuk or Osmond with a home crowd behind her. Adelina has become a headcase and Gracie has yet to get out of Nationals.
     
  17. lulu

    lulu New Member

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    My first inclination is to say Tuk., but after reading the thread, I can also see the arguments for Osmond and Sotnikova as well. Ladies used to be my least favorite discipline, but this season, I've enjoyed watching the discipline so much. Probably one of the reasons is that there are so many talented skaters, a number of whom have a legitimate chance at a medal and/or cracking the top five spot at worlds. Even among the talented, but more inconsistent skaters, who probably won't land in the top 5 or maybe even 10 at Worlds (and some who are not on the national team at all), I've really enjoyed their programs and/or skating this year. Skaters such as Gedevanishvili, Gao, Meite, Makarova and Leonova.
    Ladies is much less Ladiezzz to me now. ;)

    Even though Kiira is not a newbie to the scene, I agree with Proustable that she also has a real chance to end up in the top five as well.
     
  18. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I'd say any of Tuk, Osmond and Gold. Sotnikova's LP is a load o' crap this year, so even if she were to skate it well, I don't think the judges will go for it.
     
  19. Tantallongirl

    Tantallongirl New Member

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    I watched Katelyn Osmond compete at the Skate Canada Challenge competition last month and she had the audience on their feet when she finished. It has been a long time since I saw a female skater show such passion, and charisma on the ice. I think Katelyn is going to put Canadian ladies figure skating back on the map! She is young, enthusiastic, consistant, and a breath of fresh air for Skate Canada.
     
  20. babayaga

    babayaga Active Member

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    I voted for Adelina, I think her scoring potential is the highest among the listed ladies if she is clean, but if Mirai Nagasu makes it to Worlds she could be another candidate for top 5. I miss her, hope she returns to the list of top ladies soon :(
     
  21. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    I think Kanako Murakami wasn't listed in the poll because she finished 5th at 2012 Worlds. :)

    Poll's current standings:
    Adelina Sotnikova 5 4.10%
    Gracie Gold (if she is there) 11 9.02%
    Kaetlyn Osmond 26 21.31%
    Elizaveta Tuktamisheva 77 63.11%
    Zijun Li 3 2.46%
    Other (explain who) 0 0%
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2013
  22. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I'd say Tuk because of her amazing jumps
    A 10 triple Tuk could amass amazing TES
     
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    If Shin Amano is the technical caller at Worlds, I have a feeling Kanako won't be able to repeat her top 5 finish at this year's worlds. As she's grown and matured with puberty, her rotation speed has slowed down and, although some fans like to call her URs bogus, from my perspective, a lot of the time her jumps look suspect in real time, so the issue is definitely there. I had worried that would happen for a while as her technique is not good and even the season when she won the JGPF and JW, the jumps were often suspect in regards to rotation, and that was about 10 cm and 10 kg ago...
     
  24. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ^^IDK, I'm one of the ones who feels as though she gets URs when she doesn't deserve them. Kanako doesn't always get all the way around but she usually hits that quarter turn mark, however she's never given the benefit of the doubt.

    Kanako often starts the season URing most of her jumps but by nationals she gets herself together. It happened last season and it's happened this season too. Kanako will probably be one of the only ladies going for a 3-3 in the 2nd half of her SP and she will probably add the 3-3 to her LP in the bonus as well. I say she should go for it. Her programs are lovely again this year and if she skates well (and Amano isn't being an @$$hole) then she has a good shot at making top 5 again.