Which 2010 Olympic champion has the best chance of repeating as Oly champion in 2014?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Aug 21, 2011.

Which 2010 Olympic champion has the best chance of winning the OGM in 2014?

Poll closed Jan 18, 2012.
  1. Yu na Kim

    33 vote(s)
    17.6%
  2. Evan Lysacek

    13 vote(s)
    7.0%
  3. Virtue & Moir

    105 vote(s)
    56.1%
  4. None

    36 vote(s)
    19.3%
  1. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    Virtue/Moir if nothing slows them down and they choose to go for a second Olympics.

    Yuna seems to be out of shape but most of all she seems to have lost her competitive drive.

    Evan can't possibly win unless Chan and others don't make it to Sochi.
     
  2. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    About Chan, I agree, but who are the 'others'? I don't see anyone on the horizon right now that can be good and consistent. Evan won because he did not make a mistake (omitting the quad certainly helped:rolleyes:). I am not convinced yet that Chan can handle the Olympic pressure. May be he can, may be not. IMO Evan has as much chance of winning as other skaters in the field, and I am not anywhere close to being his fan.
     
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Kozuka will be easily better than a 28 year old Lysacek by Sochi. Even Kozuka's LP from Worlds would have blown away Evan's from Vancouver, as the point total differential (huge) also suggests. Of course with the weak SP it would have been close between the two but Kozuka will have better SPs than that in the future, and can also improve alot more while Evan has already peaked. There are alot of good young skaters coming up who were doing quads and will improve artistically in the coming years.

    Also if the field was so weak by Sochi that 28 year old Evan were even one of Chan's biggest competitors Chan wouldnt need to worry about Olympic pressure since that would just mean he still has the same 5 or 6 fall cushion he has now. :rofl: You may think Evan has as much chance to win as the others on this list but you are in the vast minority as the poll indicates.
     
  4. marbri

    marbri Hey, Kool-Aid!

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    If V&M are motivated and remain healthy they have the most potential of the three choices but three years is a long time so I don't think there'll be any repeats.

    Also think it's far too early to be even debating men. The wear and tear on their bodies over the next three years skating CoP programs AND trying to add quads the 2014 OGM is just as likely someone not even on our radar yet, will probably meet him some time in 2013.
     
  5. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    Kozuka has the talent and room to improve. We have not yet seen if he can respond to pressure. So I am not putting him in the same group as those who have won world titles yet. I would love to see him develop. I am sure Japan has some more young men that could develop too.

    I did not realize Lysacek would be 28 by 2014. That is 'old' for FS, though Plush did fine at age 27.
     
  6. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking of Kozuka, Gachinski and why not Amodio, Morozov promises his student has two different quads in his bag and we will see both of them next season.

    Sure we can build all sorts of scenarios such as Chan won't be able to handle the pressure, Kozuka won't confirm, Gachinski will catch a flu like Yagudin in '98 and so on but in my understanding, this poll is about which of the 2010 champions might win a new gold based on what we saw last season, our own perceptions of their levels and how much we think they and other skaters can grow and improve. In other words, it isn't anything like a crystal ball, so maybe if you start a new poll on the topic next summer, you will get different results.:)
     
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I am aware of that. Our perceptions WILL change, leading upto Sochi,and it is fun to see how they change. Right now everyone is crowning Chan as the next Olympic champion, but anything can happen. That is why I am not counting out Lysacek.

    V&M are winning this poll by a huge margin, and I voted for them too, but I just have a feeling that they may not even be around in 2014. If they lose the 2012 worlds, they may decide not to stick around, particularly if the injuries are persistent.
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Plushenko went from winning by 27 points in 2006 to losing by 1 point in Vancouver. Evan was never winning major events by 27 points, a similar 30 point drop off vs the younger field would leave him in about 7th-10th place.

    I dont expect Evan to even bother trying to compete in Sochi anyway. If he even follows through in his comeback this season he will bail after this season of mediocre results and finishing behind Chan by 40 points in any head to head meetings. If he isnt right up with Chan (and he wont be) he isnt going to sacrifice Stars on Ice and his current life of luxury when he already has all the major amateur titles.

    PS- While I do expect Chan to win the next Olympic Gold (and not because I am a fan since truthfully I dislike him even more than Lysacek, I just a realist on things regardless if I am a fan), I do agree he isnt a mortal lock. Things can change in 3 years. All I know is that if someone does beat him it will likely be a young up and comer (eg- probably not even Kozuka either, but someone as young as Chan or younger). It wont be a skater with a clearly inferior skill set to someone like Chan in every respect, who is aging and already peaked (eg- Lysacek).
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2011
  9. Kasey

    Kasey Loving on babies!

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    Well, considering Plushenko wasn't an Olympic champion in 2010, I guess your answer to the actual question would be "no one".
     
  10. shady82

    shady82 Active Member

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    With each quadrennial it seems to become less and less likely for a former Olympic champion to win again. I can't imagine any former gold medalist winning in 2014, but here's what I think about the chances anyways:
    - Kim: Perhaps. She certainly has the skills set, and at her best she'll probably still be at the top. She may be slightly uninspired recently, but that says little about her state before the Olympics.
    - Virtue/Moir: Perhaps. The Russian teams have a huge home advantage by 2014, and Davis/White are still in the picture. The Shibs too.
    - Lysacek: Unlikely. There's no sentimental feeling for him to win in 2014 (which factors greatly), especially with many of the skaters already having much higher base scores. Chan's scores, in particular, have been astronomically high.
    - Shen/Zhao: Virtually impossible. In 2010 they did face supposedly stiff competition from S/S, but they skated poorly that season and S/Z had the sentimental advantage. They still won pretty deservedly in Vancouver. But in 2014, 1. they'll have much stronger competition from S/S and V/T, 2. they're WAY too old, 3. I don't see why they'll want to go for the Olympics again.
     
  11. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    Virtue and Moir are by far the most likely. They're young enough, they're good enough, and dance is the one discipline in which slippery ice plays less of a role in deciding events (P/B's mishap at Worlds notwithstanding).

    I would be very surprised if Evan Lysacek will be able to keep up with the younger guys technically, and it's not like he's bringing anything unique on the PCS side of things. That doesn't mean it'll necessarily be Chan; ice is slippery, injuries can take a toll, and there are plenty of promising young skaters around. Recall that in 2007 Joubert was world champion after a very strong season, and Stephane Lambiel was also a medalist, yet we all saw how well they did in Vancouver three years later (and both were of similar age at the time to Kozuka this past season, and not much older than Chan). But I like Patrick's chances better than Evan's, for sure.

    If Yu-Na does decide to continue - a big if - I don't know how she'll be able to deal with the insane pressure a second time.
     
  12. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I agree about V&M.

    Yu na has already shown how tough she is when it comes to handling pressure. I think she can handle it the second time around, and we may see a back 2 back ladies champ since Kat Witt in 1988, if she feels motivated enough to compete in 2014. As the defending champ she will have the benefit of the doubt, but she will need to come back to world stage in 2013, and not wait till the Olympic year like Plushenko did.
     
  13. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov Well-Known Member

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    I picked Yu-Na. She may be bored and unmotivated at the moment but fortunately for singles skaters she can totally tank for the next two years but come back :kickass: for the 13/14 season and as long as she does so what she does on the ice will be what counts.

    If V&M stay until Sochi that would mean that Tessa's legs are holding up well enough for them to skate 100%. In that scenario then she and Scott IMO have a very good chance of repeating. I'd like to see that. I agree about the 50/50 shot because I also don't expect (but would be happy to see it) V&M to stay for the full quadrennial.

    In the event that V&M move on pre-Sochi, I still am not counting out I&K depending on how much further they develop in the next few years. It's not out of the question for I&K to win gold in their first Olympics if they have the goods. We've seen skaters/teams score upset wins in their first Olympic appearance in the past. And by 2014 I do think I&K may have at least one World medal under their belts.
     
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  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Although it isnt my first hope something is telling me Davis & White are going to win gold in Sochi. I hope if they do they are more artistically captivating than they currently are. My last hope would be the Shibutanis winning gold (although not impossible, especialy if we are giving I/K a shot). Nothing against them, they are very talented skaters and seem like good people, but their cutesy style is not my cup of tea at all, and I am not sure if they will ever grow out of it.
     
  15. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    The Shibutanis are young, and they can develop a lot in 3 years. I would wait and see before ruling them out for 2014 OGM.
     
  16. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I didnt rule them out of winning the 2014 OGM. I think they are a possability to win it. I just dont think they will ever be one of my favorites, and of the possible OGMs of 2014 they are the ones I least hope to win.