Which 2010 Olympic champion has the best chance of repeating as Oly champion in 2014?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Aug 21, 2011.

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Which 2010 Olympic champion has the best chance of winning the OGM in 2014?

Poll closed Jan 18, 2012.
  1. Yu na Kim

    33 vote(s)
    17.6%
  2. Evan Lysacek

    13 vote(s)
    7.0%
  3. Virtue & Moir

    105 vote(s)
    56.1%
  4. None

    36 vote(s)
    19.3%
  1. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    The pairs champions Shen & Zhao have retired, but the other three are still eligible and might compete in Sochi. Who has the best chance of repeating as Olympic champion in 2014?
  2. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    You never know... Shen and Zhao could come back in 2013-2014 saying they want another gold to prove that China is still a dominant pairs country. Or for redemption for that silly error on the lift that they made.
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Virtue & Moir by a HUGE margin. I dont even neccessarily think they will, but they have roughly a 50% chance. An unmotivated and bored Yu Na Kim has a 10% chance around, and Evan has about a 0.1% chance.
  4. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    None. I would say Virtue/Moir, but I don't see them compete until Sochi. Who knows, though?
  5. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Virtue/Moir.
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    If Yu Na Kim actually finds motivation to want to win again though she has a very good chance IMO. If she makes it to Sochi and skates like she did in Moscow she will probably be looking at a 7th place finish though.
  7. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    I think Kim really needed Orser.
  8. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    It's not a realistic question, three years away from Soichi. The landscape changes yearly...hell, monthly. Who knows what will happen b/w now and Soichi? There's always the issue of injury, partnerships splitting up (it does happen), loss of motivation, personal circumstance, not to mention the entry of new skaters into the mix. There are just too many things to factor in...

    As always, it's something we'll have to wait and see...it's a better question to ask at the beginning of the 2013-2014 season, not the 2011-2012 season...
    julieann and (deleted member) like this.
  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    We are not forecasting weather here. :rolleyes:

    As skating fans we can make predictions anytime we want. It's for fun, and not to be taken too seriously.
  10. lowtherlore

    lowtherlore New Member

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    If each of them compete healthy at Sochi, I think all three – Lysacek, Kim and V/M – have fair chances to enter as one of the favorites, although Lysacek would need a quad given the technical contents and skating a healthy Chan could bring.

    I would give V/M better odds at this point, since Sochi is still 3 seasons away and, despite the recent injuries to Tessa, I think ice dancers generally have better chance to withstand wear and tear.
  11. a56

    a56 New Member

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    Somehow, I wouldn't be surprised if Shen and Zhao returned for the 2014 Olympics. Didn't they say they were going to retire after the 2007 worlds, and then they came back for the 2010 Olympics?

    I think Virtue and Moir are the only ones who can possibly repeat, but more likely, I see a Russian team on top in 2014.
  12. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    IMO S&Z came back for 2010 because- 1)they felt dissatisfied with just a bronze medal in 2006 (IMO they should have won the silver then), 2)they saw that the pairs field had weakened considerably since Russia did not have a strong enough pair, which improved their chances of finally winning the OGM.

    Now that they have the OGM, I doubt they will want to return to competition. Hongbo is already quite old, and they may just enjoy life from now on.
  13. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    In figure skating years. Not in real life! Your phrasing makes it sound as if he is ready for nursing care and soft food. :lol:
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The only reason Shen & Zhou returned is because of their lack of Olympic Gold. Now that they have it there is no way they would return. Also they did not totally retire after 2007, they did say they might return by Vancouver.

    Anyway their chances of defeat in a potential 2014 return would be MUCH higher than 2010. 2010 they had no competition other than it turns out a badly slumping Savchenko & Szolkowy who choked in the Olympic year, and everyone was on their bandwagon and desperately wanting them to win, including the judges. 2014 they would be facing a set of very strong Russian pairs on home ice, especialy Volosozhar & Trankov, likely a much better prepared German pair, they would in no way be the sentinmental favorites either until 2010, and he would be over 40. Knowing that would also kill whatever miniscule thoughts of a return might have ever existed.
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  15. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    I don't see them returning and I see no reason for them to do so--they have nothing left to prove in the sport. And Hongbo's age is a factor for skating. Xue is reaching that point as well.

    But they certainly are not so old that they need to enjoy the view from nursing care and spend their time delinting the tennis balls on the legs of their walkers.
  16. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

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    I read an article that said S/Z will be out of ice but just focusing on directing the shows for a while after Yuna's shows in Korea. If I remember correctly, they were planning to have a baby, ready to grow into a whole family:) Given the show performances by them since Vancouver were all very well-received and they really seem to enjoy their lives, I think 2010 OGM would be it for them. I think it's time for the next generation - P/T to shine for chinese skating. S/Z's reign is long and magnificent already.
  17. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    We are talking of FS, aren't we? At 27, we were saying Plushy was 'old'.
  18. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    I wasn't criticizing. Just your phrasing and coupling it with the bit about enjoying life gave me a vision of Hongbo, at all of not quite 38, pulling up his wheelchair to the table in the common room at the nursing home for a lunch of soft foods.
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  19. millipied

    millipied New Member

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    To answer the question, only Plushenko.
  20. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Thank you for that image. :) I needed the comic relief.
  21. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I love Plushenko, but he was not the 2010 Oly champion (I wish he was).
  22. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I can't answer !
    I have absolutely no idea of how well all those Olympic champions will skate this year...so, I can't see anything in 3 years !
  23. pani

    pani Well-Known Member

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    I think nobody. 2010 OG champions have so many injuries - Yu-Na have problems with her back (if she were healthy i amd sure she will fight with Mao for gold in Sochi again), Tessa-legs, Evan - so many problems...
    And who knbow, what will happened during next 3 years?
  24. phule1970

    phule1970 Member

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    I think Yuna has a great chance if she gets her back in the game. I like Evan, but I am not sure he can compete with some of the current skaters. He is know as a hard worker so maybe he can.
  25. galaxy

    galaxy Active Member

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    I don't think Yuna will come back for next Olympic. I saw her exhibition skating of this year's Worlds. I think I have never seen such an absent-minded skating before even at exhibitions. Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing, so don't :lynch: me. It's just my impression, and I felt she had no intention to interpret the music there. She was just skating through the music and she looked like she had no interest in how the audience was feeling and how the audience would respond. She looked like she was just doing her duty. I felt that her passion for figure skating might have been decreasing.

    Yuna was fantastic at Vancouber Olympics. She was the queen back then. But IMO she peaked at the Olympics and is now going downhill little by little. Maybe she is too busy outside the rink. Maybe she is interested in many other things than fs. Even her show programs are not so impressive. (again it's MO, so don't :lynch: me.) For me it's hard to predict that we will see her again at the next Olympics. But that's just my impression, people, so don't :lynch: me.
  26. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

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    Just for arguement's sake, Yuna had a small injury on her right foot after her short program, and right before gala started, she's had a pain-killer. Maybe this factor is more likely to be the reason for that?
  27. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Really ? I thought it was because she didn't win. :confused:
  28. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

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    Well I don't know the whole story, but there was some articles about her fatigue after the competition finished and how she skated the free program with her ankle hurt.
  29. RunnersHigh

    RunnersHigh Active Member

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    Yes, she did have it. But team YuNa knew what would happen when they revealed that she's not in a good shape. She also had it in Vancouver but NVR told it to anyone. I bet if it's known to public in advance, some may quarrel with it.

    IIRC, Opening skater's injury to public before competition had never helped him/her/them in any case in skating history.
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  30. query5

    query5 New Member

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    if virture and moir goes i see them repeating, as first
    however i can also see none make it to the next olympics 2014

    so it would be
    1) virture and moir provided they go
    2) none -most likely none will go to the olympics,
    evan-doing tours, and whatnot.
    virture and moir doing the same
    yu-na -doing skating shows, charity events, etc
    3j) evan winning if he goes.
  31. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    Virtue/Moir if nothing slows them down and they choose to go for a second Olympics.

    Yuna seems to be out of shape but most of all she seems to have lost her competitive drive.

    Evan can't possibly win unless Chan and others don't make it to Sochi.
  32. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    About Chan, I agree, but who are the 'others'? I don't see anyone on the horizon right now that can be good and consistent. Evan won because he did not make a mistake (omitting the quad certainly helped:rolleyes:). I am not convinced yet that Chan can handle the Olympic pressure. May be he can, may be not. IMO Evan has as much chance of winning as other skaters in the field, and I am not anywhere close to being his fan.
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Kozuka will be easily better than a 28 year old Lysacek by Sochi. Even Kozuka's LP from Worlds would have blown away Evan's from Vancouver, as the point total differential (huge) also suggests. Of course with the weak SP it would have been close between the two but Kozuka will have better SPs than that in the future, and can also improve alot more while Evan has already peaked. There are alot of good young skaters coming up who were doing quads and will improve artistically in the coming years.

    Also if the field was so weak by Sochi that 28 year old Evan were even one of Chan's biggest competitors Chan wouldnt need to worry about Olympic pressure since that would just mean he still has the same 5 or 6 fall cushion he has now. :rofl: You may think Evan has as much chance to win as the others on this list but you are in the vast minority as the poll indicates.
  34. marbri

    marbri Hey, Kool-Aid!

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    If V&M are motivated and remain healthy they have the most potential of the three choices but three years is a long time so I don't think there'll be any repeats.

    Also think it's far too early to be even debating men. The wear and tear on their bodies over the next three years skating CoP programs AND trying to add quads the 2014 OGM is just as likely someone not even on our radar yet, will probably meet him some time in 2013.
  35. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    Kozuka has the talent and room to improve. We have not yet seen if he can respond to pressure. So I am not putting him in the same group as those who have won world titles yet. I would love to see him develop. I am sure Japan has some more young men that could develop too.

    I did not realize Lysacek would be 28 by 2014. That is 'old' for FS, though Plush did fine at age 27.
  36. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking of Kozuka, Gachinski and why not Amodio, Morozov promises his student has two different quads in his bag and we will see both of them next season.

    Sure we can build all sorts of scenarios such as Chan won't be able to handle the pressure, Kozuka won't confirm, Gachinski will catch a flu like Yagudin in '98 and so on but in my understanding, this poll is about which of the 2010 champions might win a new gold based on what we saw last season, our own perceptions of their levels and how much we think they and other skaters can grow and improve. In other words, it isn't anything like a crystal ball, so maybe if you start a new poll on the topic next summer, you will get different results.:)
  37. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I am aware of that. Our perceptions WILL change, leading upto Sochi,and it is fun to see how they change. Right now everyone is crowning Chan as the next Olympic champion, but anything can happen. That is why I am not counting out Lysacek.

    V&M are winning this poll by a huge margin, and I voted for them too, but I just have a feeling that they may not even be around in 2014. If they lose the 2012 worlds, they may decide not to stick around, particularly if the injuries are persistent.
  38. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Plushenko went from winning by 27 points in 2006 to losing by 1 point in Vancouver. Evan was never winning major events by 27 points, a similar 30 point drop off vs the younger field would leave him in about 7th-10th place.

    I dont expect Evan to even bother trying to compete in Sochi anyway. If he even follows through in his comeback this season he will bail after this season of mediocre results and finishing behind Chan by 40 points in any head to head meetings. If he isnt right up with Chan (and he wont be) he isnt going to sacrifice Stars on Ice and his current life of luxury when he already has all the major amateur titles.

    PS- While I do expect Chan to win the next Olympic Gold (and not because I am a fan since truthfully I dislike him even more than Lysacek, I just a realist on things regardless if I am a fan), I do agree he isnt a mortal lock. Things can change in 3 years. All I know is that if someone does beat him it will likely be a young up and comer (eg- probably not even Kozuka either, but someone as young as Chan or younger). It wont be a skater with a clearly inferior skill set to someone like Chan in every respect, who is aging and already peaked (eg- Lysacek).
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2011
  39. Kasey

    Kasey Loving on babies!

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    Well, considering Plushenko wasn't an Olympic champion in 2010, I guess your answer to the actual question would be "no one".
  40. shady82

    shady82 New Member

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    With each quadrennial it seems to become less and less likely for a former Olympic champion to win again. I can't imagine any former gold medalist winning in 2014, but here's what I think about the chances anyways:
    - Kim: Perhaps. She certainly has the skills set, and at her best she'll probably still be at the top. She may be slightly uninspired recently, but that says little about her state before the Olympics.
    - Virtue/Moir: Perhaps. The Russian teams have a huge home advantage by 2014, and Davis/White are still in the picture. The Shibs too.
    - Lysacek: Unlikely. There's no sentimental feeling for him to win in 2014 (which factors greatly), especially with many of the skaters already having much higher base scores. Chan's scores, in particular, have been astronomically high.
    - Shen/Zhao: Virtually impossible. In 2010 they did face supposedly stiff competition from S/S, but they skated poorly that season and S/Z had the sentimental advantage. They still won pretty deservedly in Vancouver. But in 2014, 1. they'll have much stronger competition from S/S and V/T, 2. they're WAY too old, 3. I don't see why they'll want to go for the Olympics again.