Which 2 U.S men will make it to Sochi

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by judgejudy27, Apr 6, 2013.

?

Which 2 U.S men will make Olympic team

Poll closed Jan 31, 2014.
  1. Aaron

    74.1%
  2. Miner

    7.8%
  3. Dornbush

    15.5%
  4. Miner

    5.2%
  5. Lysacek

    25.9%
  6. Abbott

    38.8%
  7. Farris

    21.6%
  8. Brown

    6.9%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    At this point who would be your picks for the 2 U.S mens spots for the Sochi Olympics. I would guess Aaron will be one. I think if he mantains his current consistency and jumping there is no way he will be denied a spot. The other is alot tricker and it is possible any of Abbott, Lysacek, Dornbush, Miner, Rippon, Farris, Brown, could factor into that.
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    Sorry I put Miner twice. Could a moderator replace the 2nd one with Rippon. If not just vote for the 2nd Miner 4th from the top if you mean Rippon.

    I almost voted for Aaron and Miner, but changed to Aaron and Abbott at the last second. I know alot will write Miner off after his Worlds and 4CCs result, but I think he is a fighter and he is very consistent most of the time which most U.S men currently arent. I have a feeling the USFSA would most want it to be Dornbush or Abbott, but I am not sure how either will skate at Nationals, but I have a feeling Abbott will skate well enough for 1 of the 2 spots (either winning or being 2nd at Nationals) for some reason. I dont think Evan will even show, and I dont think he will be much of a factor even if he does.
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2013
  3. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    Ha ha, way too early for this poll. BTW, Miner is listed twice, so do you mean this season's version of Ross, vs a Kwan-like, and quad-confident transformed version of Ross? ;)

    This poll will just be a measure of people's preferences and likely based on who we wish would make the Sochi team. For this year's Worlds, I always thought it would be important for the U.S. to send one veteran and one up-and-comer as the best hopes for trying to gain 3 spots. In the end, it always seems to be a crap shoot, thus Max Aaron's breakthrough and Abbott's fall on an uncertain quad (in view of his inability to train it this season) plus his doubling too many triples overthrew the apple cart. Ross was prepared with great programs but he was still trying to get comfortable with his quad, and 4CC hurt his confidence. Ross' usual steadiness I feel was thrown off a bit by tentativeness on the quad, and mentally perhaps over-thinking re the pressure involved.

    For different U.S. guys to be going to Worlds every year, the younger guys are not having the opportunity to develop their skills and confidence internationally. Same goes for the ISU judges not getting to fully know U.S. guys and their abilities. Therefore, trying to make a judgement now will just be a guessing game/ preference game, as usual.

    Since the poll is up for a year, likely most people will come back to it in January 2014. :)

    I'm not voting now, but if Evan actually has quads and is in good form, it might be him and Max Aaron (but that's not my preference). Max will likely need to show stylistic improvement along with probably having another quad in his arsenal. Personally, I really can't see Evan being ready with consistent quads, and he doesn't actually have great artistry either, but maybe the judges will be looking more for quads and reliability, rather than quads and artistry.

    I think Farris and Brown will be on tap for 2018. If Richard is able to step it up consistently, I could see it being Richard and Max for Sochi. I haven't heard that Johnny Weir is not going to try to come back again, so perhaps you meant to include his name instead of a second Miner? Likely Johnny has just as much chance to be on point with quads as does Evan, which is to say not the best odds.

    Who knows re Jeremy Abbott. He so should have been at Worlds the last three years (but he lost out by not stepping up in crucial moments). At this point, if Jeremy attains physical and mental strength, he is obviously still a factor, and I think of the veteran's, he's the strongest possibility to make it.

    Of the younger guys, I think Max, Richard, and Adam are likely the strongest contenders, with Ross at least for now, a dark horse. Adam will need to have a strong quad however, because if Ross' quad is more secure, that may be a trump card. Again, I can see Farris and Brown placing well at Nationals, but a lot will depend upon Josh having a strong quad and developing his stylistic identity, and doing well on the GP circuit. As I said, I think both Josh and Jason should be thinking more toward 2018, but that doesn't mean they both aren't a threat to challenge big time and shake things up in the standings.

    Ok, I see you noticed the doubling of Miner. I didn't notice you hadn't included Rippon, but yes, there's no Johnny. ;)
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2013
  4. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    No I never had any intention of including Johnny in the poll. That was not a mistake. I only intended to include Rippon instead of Miner twice.
  5. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    Yeah, obviously and not surprising either. You are getting some votes. It will be interesting if someone makes the team who is not in this poll (other than Rippon that is, who still currently is not included). :lol:
  6. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,969
    I''m thinking that if Dornbush avoids illness and injury, he and Aaron will make the team
  7. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,242
    Probably Aaron and Abbott. But I hope at least one of Dornbush or Farris makes it. Farris is a really big longshot though. Ricky could have a good chance though. Lysacek and Miner are other considerations. I'd be very surprised if anyone outside of the 6 I mentioned made the team though.
  8. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,245
    I voted Aaron and Dornbush.
  9. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,271
    It's beyond bizarre to me that some consider Dornbush to have a really good chance to make the team and Farris to be a really big longshot. AS IF Ricky's track record has been the epitome of confidence and dependability . . . are we even talking about the same skater?

    As for Aaron, he has never been in the position of being the chased, so it will be really interesting to see how he reacts to being a first time defending National Champion with everyone gunning for him.
    flutzilla1 and (deleted member) like this.
  10. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2010
    Messages:
    4,891
    My hope is that Ricky finds his consistency and matures his skating better enough to make the olympic team. I also want Farris to make his olympic debut at Sochi but as long as Ricky earns his spot, I'd be fine with anyone.
  11. centerpt1

    centerpt1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2007
    Messages:
    748
    I voted Aaron and Lysacek.

    Aaron because the US judges reward multi-quadding. (remember Bradley?) Amazing how those PCS scores rise with quadding. Aaron is a solid skater (better than Bradley) , and he is consistent. It will be enough. I think he will handle the stress of defending his title well.

    Lysacek will be over-rewarded for being a returning OGM.


    Who would I rather see? Some combination of Rippon, Abbott or Miner. Miner has been consistently in the medals at Nationals the last few years. He has a shot for top two if Lysacek doesn't come back. Rippon has the perfect (for him) FS program. He might sneak in if he stays healthy and his jumps improve. Abbott's a quality skater, no longer at his best. He would be a sentimental favorite to make the team, but age and injury seem to be working against him.
  12. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,969
    I hope you don't consider me beyond bizarre :p

    My thought on Dornbush is that first of all, there seems to be logical excuses for his last 2 season: Poorly mounted blade in 2011-12, ankle injury during the 2012 GPF and flu at Nationals this past January. I personally get suspicious over numerous excuses, but we'll see.

    His performances at the last comp - 2013 4CC's - show that he is capable of scoring big even w/ flaws. Both national and international judges seem to love him and will reward him with PCS which gives me hope for him.
  13. merrywidow

    merrywidow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2001
    Messages:
    4,406
    I voted for Max & ....Jason!! Jason is going to come into his own now that he has the triple axle. If he lands the quad he may be very hard to beat. As far a s Dornbush is concerned I see him as a legitimate contender for the medal stand at Nationals. He's a fighter & his problem this past season has been an inconsistent quad but it's coming. What I see in him is a man who makes major mistakes in the beginning of a program & then gathers himself & skates strong in the last half. Miner will be back. I don't expect Abbott to even medal. Lysacek is a question mark. With a solid quad he could repeat as Champion. Then there is Farris & Rippon & Messing & Mahbanoozadeh & ....! LOL!
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    One factor I had not considered is the obvious reality whoever the U.S sends to Sochi there is zero medal possability, not even someone with an outside shot if they skated lights out and there were alot of errors. So with that in mind perhaps they will look to the future and make sure to send two guys who might have a shot for 2018. If that mentality is taken it could be say Farris and Dornbush being sent, or perhaps even Brown if he has improved alot. Aaron probably wont be around for 2018, but could help the U.S regain 3 spots at the World level up until 2016 so they might continue to reward him if he keeps landing quads and skating well also. Probably no point sending old Abbott or old Lysacek to the Olympics to finish somewhere from 9th to 15th and retire, sending journeyman Miner, or unable to make mark Rippon.
  15. icellist

    icellist Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    414
    Dornbush and Farris are the most complete skaters on the list for artistry and technique
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,242
    Yes and if the USFS wants to send guys who have a chance to be medal contenders in 2018, then these are probably the smartest 2 picks. If there were a 3rd spot I wouldn't mind Abbott or Lysacek going, but realistically next season will be their last, and they are both past their prime so I feel like unless they really skate lights out at Nats and have good fall seasons, giving them an Olympic spot as a retirement gift is not the wisest decision. Aaron could also stay around until 2018, but idk if he has the potential to be a medal contender on the World stage, his artistry would have to improve a lot. Miner I think is probably always going to be a 2nd tier skater internationally, Rippon is lovely but not strong enough with the jumps I'm afraid, Jason could be a factor in a few years but I don't think he'll be quite soup next season given the newness of the 3a, and he has yet to even attempt a quad in competition (and just started training them recently), so no need to rush him especially with only 2 spots. Dornbush and Farris would be my ideal team but Aaron is also a good choice.
  17. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2003
    Messages:
    12,392
    I hope Abbott will be in.
    And I guess Aaron is the best to have a spot, but I would love Joshua Farris to be in the team !
  18. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,108
    I bet Lysacek will not skate at US Nationals again, or any eligible competition for that matter. Pretty sure Aaron will make it, and Mr. Consistency Ross Miner will grab the second spot. If not Miner, then Abbott with Farris and Dornbush as dark horses.
  19. PrincessLeppard

    PrincessLeppard Pink Bitch

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2003
    Messages:
    22,007
    I refuse to vote in this poll because Alexander Johnson isn't on it. :mitchell:

    Yeah, long shot and all that, but damn, what fabulous edges and presentation.
  20. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    ^^ Ha ha. Alexander would indeed be a wonderful addition, if there was a third spot available. :( I'm with you that there are obviously other talented guys contending in the U.S., but to be honest, the top guys are the ones listed (Rippon has not yet been included as intended). I haven't actually voted because I prefer to wait until the new season starts, at least. ;)


    ITA with the excellent points made by centerpt1!


    IMO, Joshua and Jason have 2018 to look forward to, and anything before that will be a significant accomplishment -- even better than icing on the cake. :) If there were 3 spots available, I believe it would be more likely Farris could win a spot if he skated competitively well at Nationals. Jason doesn't yet have a quad, but he seems to have mastered the 3-axel and with his superb artistry and showmanship he's definitely a contender on a grand scale. But again with only two spots, it's more likely ...

    The battle for Sochi will come down to Max, Richard, Adam, Evan, Jeremy, and Ross. Plus, a clean Armin with quads should not be completely ruled out as a podium contender. I definitely hope to also see Alexander and Keegan place well. I also would not discount the fact that if Johnny miraculously comes back with quads and is somehow reborn, he would be competitive, but I wish he would have gone the cool commentator route. In fact, to me Evan isn't looking like he could pull off an actual U.S. title win the way Max has proven he can control his nerves and lay down quads. However, as current OGM and perennial USFS fave, Evan still has some clout and rep, that is if he comes back strong, which is not guaranteed. The shame is that Jeremy has the talent to trump everyone (even Patrick), but Jere-amazin' has ultimately lacked the mental fortitude in the competitive moments that mattered. Sadly, it was largely physical issues which proved to be Jeremy's biggest obstacle this season. It’ll be fun seeing Jeremy performing his programs for a final time this season at WTT.

    I think museks8r along with JJ should review the history of surprising figure skating upsets and triumphant comebacks. In this sport, anything is possible. And, in fact, Richard Dornbush has all-around talent and potential. He will surely need a measure of good luck too after having rotten luck the past two seasons. But with the right programs, confidence and momentum, Richard is definitely a contender. IMO, Richard has struggled more-so with overall confidence due to setbacks. He surely needs to work on his posture, stretch and line, but it’s quite obvious to me that RD had the capability and the possibility of winning or making the World team even this year had he been clean and had he not contracted that virus. He went for it in the long program at Nats but came up short due to lacking stamina. I suppose it’s clear that neither Max nor Richard happen to be your cup of tea, museks8r. :p

    I don’t argue that Richard and Joshua have all-around talent in terms of technique and artistry, but I don’t think either of them has yet fully come into their own re unique style, amazing artistry and musical interpretation (Jeremy, Jason, Adam) or amazing quads and fierce determination (Max). Also, Ross has overall proven to be more competitively consistent than Richard, but they both have been adjusting recently to the effort to make their quads more reliable.


    Actually, pinky, Adam is looking pretty rock solid on his jumps. Since he’s coming back from an ankle injury, he didn’t perform all the difficult jumps in his recent new program debut, but don’t let that fool you. Adam’s conquered the 3-axel technique, and he’s looking very strong and confident. He’s also training quads under his coach and jump-maestro, Rafael Arytunyan.
  21. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    1. I don't believe Lysacek will be a real contender if he does show up, nor do I think he'll show up.

    2. No one is a lock. I remember thinking Abbott was a lock in 2010/2011. He had just finished 5th in Torino, won medals at both his GP events (the only other American skater to do that was Brandon Mroz) and the American men weren't that strong - recalling that Dornbush (and Aaron and Messing and Farris and Brown) were competing as juniors and Miner was coming off an injury earlier in 2010. Even with Bradley's return, there wasn't much competition for the title. That he ended up fourth floored me. The competition is tighter now (all those juniors are now seniors internationally, for one thing) and Abbott seems to be in a similar position to Nagasu - that he'll have to skate out of skin to really be considered.

    3. I voted for Aaron (he has reliable quads, which means his PCS will be higher than he deserves, thus his scores) and Farris. Though it wouldn't surprise me if Miner snuck through. I don't get Dornbush, think Rippon's day has passed. Brown's a darkhorse, but the stars would REALLY have to align.
  22. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    ^^ :lol: IMO, Proustable you hit the nail on the head with your first point re Lysacek, but get this:

    You don't need to get Richard Dornbush in order for him to win and to be a contender on the world stage. A lot of people don't get Patrick Chan constantly winning with numerous technical errors just because of his SS and off-and-on quad mastery either. :p

    You may think Rippon's day has passed, but I'll say this: Not a day has passed in which Adam Rippon hasn't been working his butt off with Rafael Arytunyan, and believing in himself and his talent, and it shows! :cheer:
  23. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    Your point is fair - I don't need to get Richard for him to be one of the two men sent to the Olympics.

    I don't mean to disparage Rippon's work ethic. But someone without a quad and with an iffy triple axel isn't in a great position in this field at this time.
  24. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    ^^ Ah, but Adam Rippon's 3-axel is no longer "iffy." In fact!

    The only reason Adam didn't put the 3-axel in his recent performance is because he's recovering from an ankle injury. Clearly Adam will need to incorporate a quad to be competitive in the current men's scene (no one has indicated otherwise), but that's a far cry from "Rippon's day has passed." Hopefully, Adam's name will soon be included in this poll as intended, and Miner's votes will be consolidated.

    In any case, it's probably not fair of us fans to be dumping on any of these hard-working skaters. I doubt most of us would have ever made it to the level they have in this hugely difficult sport in the first place.

    I think what it boils down to is this poll is way too early, it's the off-season AKA the crazy endless polls season, and there will always be heated debate, politics, and subjectivity in figure skating. :)
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2013
  25. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    Messages:
    4,925
    Someone upthread said that none of the U.S. men have a realistic shot at an Olympic medal, and I agree. Which is why I think the USFSA will give the nod to the two men who "bring it" the most at Nationals. I could see one of the young'uns like Josh or Jason taking the ice with nothing to lose, bringing the house down and grabbing an Olympic berth.
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  26. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    Like has been proven, anything is possible.
  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,242
    Adam's 3a was better at Nats but I still wouldn't say it's a great jump for him, he hit it well in the SP, but both 3a in the FS weren't that great - improved yes, but not one of the more impressive 3a jumps in the field.

    And Mr. Consistency Ross Miner? Did you watch 4CCs and Worlds? His last two showings this season showed that not only is the 4s not consistent yet, but the 3a is no longer consistent for him either. He scored between 210-215 points at 4 of his 5 international events this season so that's the only consistency you can really speak too and those marks aren't all that impressive...

    I'm not sure Brown owns the 3a yet either. He was great at JW but he had rather a poor season overall, at Nationals he was decent, but he didn't even break 200 points at any of his JGP outings and was beaten by Kovtun and Hino at the JGPF. Kovtun beat him in PCS at the JGPF even. So while his artistry is nice, it's not getting rewarded that much by the international judges yet. I know he had the highest PCS in the FS at JW, but it was only a couple points ahead of Farris, and that was for a perfect, blinder skate while Farris had a skate marred by the fall on his 4t, not to mention the overall performance was, IMO, a bit robotic due to his being so focused (I thought he performed the program better at Nationals where he seemed less tense and more free). We'll see what happens during the upcoming season.

    Interested in seeing what Ricky can do this upcoming season. If he can regain consistency, he should have good odds.

    Abbott I think a lot depends on the status of his quad. At this point it doesn't seem like he really has the 4t steadily in his arsenal anymore, so putting it in the SP is likely not a great idea, and while falling on it in the FS is one thing, if his falls keep getting marked as 4t<, then he could be in a vulnerable situation.

    Farris probably has the best 3a of the men's field in the US right now, but I think the 4t will really be the key element for him this season. If he can start landing it in competition and can keep the consistency and quality of his 3a and 3a-3t up, then I think he will be dangerous, especially if he should decide to put two quads in his FS and possibly one in the SP (no clue if he will/should do either, but if he did and landed them with some success, he should be in the mix). The artistry is not that great yet but he's already in low 7s in juniors with self choreo programs so his PCS shouldn't really hold him back, more that they won't give him an edge, but his ability to consistently get level 4s on his spins and steps will help, plus his jump and spin GOE will also help as few other guys will be able to match that kind of GOE in BOTH the jumps and spins (Max can do it on jumps but isn't as strong in the spins, Adam and Jason can even exceed it on the spins but aren't as strong in the jumps). So we will see what happens. But USFS seems to prefer Brown to Farris so if Brown does start trying a quad and is consistent with his 3a in the fall, then he realistically may have better odds just because he has always been rewarded for what he does well at Nats, so it will be interesting.
  28. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2008
    Messages:
    3,739
    I'd send Abbott and Farris, just becasue they are my favorites and I think Jason Brown could use another year before becoming The Star :lol:.
    But seriously, this is an insanely unpredictable field. Until one solid leader emerges, anything is possible. And I don't think the Federation would hold up anybody too much, exactly because the medal prospects are low.
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    I would really like the team to be Farris and Dornbush, or if Aaron makes it (which I wont mind) I hope it is one of the other two for the other spots. I wont mind if Miner makes it, as it will be his only chance at the Olympics, but really it wouldnt do anything for the US, either now or in the future, but if he earns it at Nationals then so be it. I wouldnt even mind Rippon of Mahbanoozadeh (who I would have put in my poll had I remembered) if they skate well enough at Nationals, although like Miner I dont really think are part of the U.S mens future, and wouldnt be of any of current or long term benefit, but as the U.S has no medal hopes they might as well give it to who skates great on the day of Nationals. Would rather not see skaters who have already experienced the Olympics and wont do well this year like Abbott or Lysacek, or a skater who still has alot of development left like Brown.
  30. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    Ouch, you're a bit harsh pinky! Did you see Jason Brown's lp skate at Junior Worlds. Out of this world! Many doubted that Jason would ever get the 3-axel ... and he's got it. Also, I think Rippon has been bad-mouthed enough over the 3-axel. AdaRipp is working it, so stop the nitpicking, please. :p

    I like Joshua, but he's not yet the bees' knees by any means. He has enormous all-around skills and potential, but he's still got to work on projecting more to the audience and fully developing his style which is gonna require further challenging himself artistically. Jason may not yet have the quad and he's still refining his command of the 3-axel, but Jason is big time great stylistically, musically, artistically and magical performance-wise.

    Still, IMO, Joshua and Jason have 2018 to shoot for ... but once again anything and everything is possible.


    ETA:
    And JJ, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss young, talented skaters. A lot of people dismissed Max Aaron too all the way up to and past this year's U.S. Nationals. And prior to her transforming and phenomenal break-out 1995-1996 season, Michelle Kwan was considered just a cute jumper who was too young to be awarded a deserved podium spot.
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2013
  31. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,969
    IMO. The team will be about the 2 US men who hit a quad and 3x. So, probably Max and any one of Ricky, Ross, Adam, Jeremy and Josh
  32. fscric

    fscric Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2004
    Messages:
    325
    Adam? Does he have a quad?
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    if that is the requirement it definitely wont be Adam. Old past his best Evan even has a better shot to pull that off. Adam has a hard enough time managing the 3x on its own.
  34. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,558
    I don't understand the hype about Dornbush. He doesn't seem any better than any of the others at this point. I'm really struggling to link up the splatfest that I saw at Nationals with people saying he's a lock for the Olympic team.

    Anyway, a year is a long time. Anything could happen. I can tell you who I don't want to see on the team: Abbott and Lysacek. Abbott is a lovely skater but how many chances has he blown now? And for Lysacek to just swan in after not being bothered to compete for four years and take an Olympic spot is pretty criminal IMO.

    I'm really keen on Max Aaron. He seems to have a very solid mindset. He did pretty well at Worlds for a first-timer and held it together when he made a mistake. But of course who knows how he will deal with the pressure of being the USFSA's leading man next year? It's a big jump from a couple of Senior Bs....
  35. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,349
    Dornbush has only 10 votes out of many voters, and is sitting only 5th on this poll. I doubt anyone is thinking he is a "lock" for the team, lol!
  36. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,508
    I don't believe anyone said that anyone among U.S. men is "a lock" for the Olympic team, although with his quad consistency, Max is obviously the one with the most votes in this meaningless poll at the moment.

    What is it you dislike the most about Dornbush, misskarne? No way Dornbush is being "hyped" anywhere that I can see. He's just being respected and given credit for the talent he in fact possesses. IMHO, if anyone is receiving a teensy weensy bit of uber-hype here at this point in his career, it's Joshua Farris. I think Josh is a wonderful skater with tremendous potential that may yet surpass that of Richard Dornbush, but let's just hold our horsies a bit longer, because the race is not even near the horizon yet, forget about the horses being in the starting gate. :p

    Yes, and Max is a big jumper too, so the leap from senior Bs was not an obstacle for him in any way. Max has proven his strength as a solid competitor. The most challenging difficulty for all the U.S. guys is and for the foreseeable future will always be U.S. Nationals.


    JJ, request to stop nitpicking on Adam Rippon, includes you!
  37. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    One could argue that giving him 4CC 2012 over all the skaters that beat at Nationals 2012 contributes to the feeling of hype, though that's certainly not Dornbush's fault.
  38. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,969
    Re Dornbush (again - along with Max and Ross) -

    He scored 239.99 at Finlandia (with the Quad tripled in the SP; 3-3 became a 3-2 in the SP) which is the highest score by a US man this season. But, if you don't like counting that score because it's a Senior B competition ...

    At his last competition, 2013 4CCs, his score in the SP was 83.01 (with a hand-down on the 3x; included a fairly big GOE of 1.43 on the 4T; partial SO from the Japanese crowd). I didn't check but wouldn't this be the highest score by a US man in the SP this past season? In the LP, he scored 151.03 (with a near fall on the 4T; popped 3x / no 3-jump combo; two step-outs). His total was 234.04 which makes him the 3rd highest internationally scoring US man all season in big ISU competitions, only just a few points behind a less flawed Ross at NHK (who was flawless in the LP) and Max's 2 scores at 4CCs and Worlds.

    His Quad attempts, while less successful than Max's attempts, were probably on par with Ross's attempts. Additionally, Ross ended the season poorly in regards to the Quad while IMO, Ricky improved on his Quad attempts. He also attempts 2 Quads like Max in the LP while Ross does 1 Quad. Ross is probably superior in posture and stroking, power generated across the ice but Ricky has good height and position on his jumps, plus difficult spins. I also think Ricky is better at working CoP and backloading the LP than Ross. He also projects his musicality and choreography to the audience and judges better than Max or Ross (but of course not as well as someone like Jeremy).

    So, I don't think he's #1 but he could very easily get there if he avoids injury, illness and some of the weird issues that plagued him the last 2 seasons. Thus, I think the competition for the 2 spots would be among Max, Ricky, and Ross.

    I think if Jeremy has a typical season, he will finish behind the aforementioned and not be a factor for anything besides a 4CCs slot. Of course, we always hold out hope after all these years that Jeremy will even somewhat realize his potential, in which case, he would probably get a slot or win. But, this is his last season most likely and anything other than scintillating will keep him off the Olympic team.

    I assign the outside spoiler labels to Adam and Joshua, but their road is a harder go: Adam is less likely to hit a Quad than Max, Ricky or Ross at this point but that LP is a beauty and a good start. That is why despite the last 3 seasons, he still has an outside shot. Joshua might still be considered a little too young whose time is 2018, and his Quad is now MIA (even if he nails everything else) Thus, the judges might keep him back. Strong programs next season w/ a steady Quad will put him in the mix, though.

    I don't think we will see Evan or Johnny. Ever.

    As for the rest, they're too far behind all of the aforementioned. Of the rest, Keegan looked good at some of those Senior B comps this past year, but was a disaster at Nationals. Jason finished on a high note at Jr. Worlds, but is just getting the 3x and might just do the Junior circuit again, which would IMO disqualify him from one of the 2 team slots. Armin has done what he can to improve by going to Colorado Springs to work w/ Christy Krall, but he just can't seem to deliver. I fear he's been lost in the shuffle and would probably do well to finish in the top 10 or maybe make the final group and get a 4CCs slot at best.
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2013
  39. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2011
    Messages:
    474
    If you look at the results from Nationals, there is a 21 point gap between 8th (Jason) and 9th (Brandon). Unlike the 15 point gap between 4th (Farris) and 5th (Rippon), I think that this divides the contenders from the pretenders. So I would take those 8: Aaron, Miner, Abbott, Farris, Rippon, Dornbush, Johnson, & Brown, and add in Lysacek to tell you the real contenders. No serious contenders in men are moving up from the Junior level, so these would be the only ones to consider. 1st-4th seem to have the largest chance to make the team while those below the 15 point gap (Rippon, Dornbush, Johnson, Brown) have to do perfectly do be considered. Let's see what it would take for each man to make the team:

    Aaron: Similar performance from this last season, probably can make 1 more error because of an established reputation.
    Miner: 2 clean programs, after faltering at Worlds, USFS needs to see more from him
    Abbott: He can make a few small mistakes, but too many and he's in trouble. If he makes a mistake in the SP he'll need a clean FS to go to Sochi
    Farris: He skated pretty much perfectly this last season, so if he does well on the GP he'll have to skate the same programs from last year to be considered. If he has the quad in both programs, look for him to make a serious run at the top 2 spots.
    Rippon: 2 Clean programs. He's made too many mistakes in the past to be considered with anything else. A quad would seriously (obviously) help his case.
    Dornbush: Also would need 2 clean programs. If he has 2 quads in the FS again, he can make a mistake on one, but would need a few mistakes from the top men.
    Johnson: Clean skates AND a quad. He hasn't tried one yet, but if he can pull off two clean programs with at least a quad in the free, he could realistically make the team.
    Brown: I'd say the same as Johnson. It's a bit early in his career for him to make the OLY team so he'll have to make a serious showing at nationals WITH a quad. He also would likely need some help from the other men in order to make it to Sochi.
    Lysacek: He has to show up at pre-nationals competitions. Show that he still has the consistency that he was so well known for, and show a quad. He can make a mistake in the FS.

    Percentage odds IMO:

    Without Lysacek
    Aaron: 40%
    Abbott: 35%
    Miner: 5%
    Farris: 5%
    Rippon: 5%
    Dornbush: 4%
    Brown: 4%
    Johnson: 2%

    With Lysacek

    Lysacek: 40%
    Aaron: 25%
    Abbott: 20%
    Miner: 3%
    Farris: 3%
    Rippon: 3%
    Dornbush: 3%
    Brown: 2%
    Johnson: 1%

    What would be totally awesome is if someone built some sort of simulator for things like this. USFS officials could commonly visit their practices, for the top contenders in each division. At least twice a month. They'd record it all, write down everything they see, watching at least 2 of each program while they were there. They'd determine the approx GOE and UR's of each jump and a ballpark figure for PCS each time. All the data would go into a system that would then breakdown averages for each competitor. They could then put these figures into a simulator to determine how many times out of 100 a skater would score at a top 8 world level. This could potentially aid them in determining a world team.
  40. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,242
    Did I not say Jason was great at JW in my post above? I believe I did, and yes, his FS at JW was clean and beautiful and he hit all his jumps, but that was not the way he skated that program during the rest of the season. People I think get too excited over one good performance, or program even, from a skater and seem to jump to big conclusions. I was merely pointing out the reality that Jason's wonderful JW FS was not par for the course of this season. His 224 at JW was the only international event he broke 200 points for this season, and while 224 is obviously way above 200, it notes a significant jump from everything else he put out. It's the same deal with Ross at NHK, his FS at NHK was great, but it was much better than anything else he put out this season. Also worth noting for both skaters I mentioned, they both did not have clean or particularly great SPs at the events where they had the great FS programs so that speaks to another matter of putting it all together at a competition. For Jason, it is likely his good performance at JW was indicative of progress he has made on the 3a, but considering the other skates and scores he put up this season, I'm not so sure the big jump can be attributed entirely to this and not partially to a situation of "having a great skate on the right day". Of course, it gives us an idea of what he's capable of, but that's a different kettle of fish.

    For Ross, where his best skate came so early in the season, the skate/score seems more like an outlier or matter of peaking too early in the season since he did not skate nearly as well in any of his competition FS programs that followed.

    As for Josh, I agree he is not artistically that strong yet. His jumps are great and he has very strong spins and nice body lines, but his programs and projection in particular do have a lot of room for improvement. That's sort of why I'm being a bit harsh on Jason - because Joshua is still beating him handily internationally at this point (4 points at JW, 13 points at JGPF), and their PCS are very comparable, so that's more why I think Jason, too, is still a work-in-progress artistically like Joshua, and then additionally, he's more of a work-in-progress from a technical standpoint. Some seem to think his artistry is that of a top senior man already with which I would not agree - he has the artistry of a top JUNIOR man but he still has a long ways to get to the level of an Abbott or Takahashi, or even Hanyu who is the same age. If he were that strong artistically it would take a lot more than a popped flip and a waxel for a skater like Hino to beat him, and objectively speaking, Josh was a bit of a mess at the JGPF especially in the FS where he was doped up on Benadryl and made many errors, and he still beat Jason by 13 points, and Kovtun beat Josh by another 11 points and beat both of them in PCS. So artistically they BOTH still have work to do.

    The difference in situation of Josh was that he had a clean SP in 4/5 of his big competitions this year (and his biggest error was a stepout on his 3a at JGPF) and delivered 3 very strong FS programs (Lake Placid, Nationals, JW) which scored quite well (146, 165, 152 respectively), so there's more ground to go off of to determine what one can expect out of a typical competition skate for him compared to the one-program wonders.

    Dornbush's great SP at 4CCs may have been an outlier, but he also had a great SP at Finlandia, and delivered a few solid FS programs this season between Finlandia, NHK, and 4CCs. Plus his scores with mistakes are what's encouraging, he cleans up those errors and his scores can be huge!

    Rippon we will see but he really needs the 3a solid AND a quad to be considered which is a big ask because we all know how those quad attempts were looking in the 2011-2012 season when he last was attempting them :shuffle:

    It will be exciting to watch and I am interested to see what happens re GP assignments and such.