Which 2 Russian Ladies will go to Sochi

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Aug 18, 2013.

which 2 ladies ?

  1. Adelina Sotnikova

    76 vote(s)
    76.0%
  2. Anna Pogorilaya

    11 vote(s)
    11.0%
  3. Nikol Gosviani

    2 vote(s)
    2.0%
  4. Julia Lipnitskaya

    49 vote(s)
    49.0%
  5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    57 vote(s)
    57.0%
  6. Alena Leonova

    5 vote(s)
    5.0%
  7. Polina Korobeynikova

    4 vote(s)
    4.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    After watching their programs, who has the highest chance of being in good
    form/mileage for the season and ultimately gets a ticket from the Federation to Sochi :cool:
     
  2. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia would be my choices. I feel Tuktamysheva is struggling to hold things together, and she also doesnt have that much going for her if her jumps arent consistent- not big jumps that get high GOE, not very spins, not very high PCS (often lower than Julia in fact). I could also see Sotnikova missing it however. I really feel contary to popular belief that Julia L. is making the team and probably one of Sot/Tuk for the other spot but it wouldnt even completely shock me if both Sot/Tuk miss the team.
     
  4. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Anna pogorilaya and Julia lipnitskaia. I dont know if tuktamisheva and sotnikova can beat them anymore. Sotnikova has good pcs and That may save her.
     
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yes this would be my rough order of likelihood to make the team:

    1. Julia Lipnitskaia
    2. Pogorilaya & Sotnikova (virtually equal odds)
    4. Tuktamysheva
     
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Most impressed with Lipnitskaya and Pogorilaya at this point watching those videos honestly. If Tuk and Sot don't get their jumps together I wouldn't be surprised if those two got sent instead - the power of youth. I think artistically, they both show much improvement in the new programs. Plus their jumps look good, very nice running edges on the landing. They both look wonderful, too, very beautiful young women.
     
  7. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Sotnikova has good presentation and is the highest scoring Russian PCS wise
    so if she can get even decent jumps by GP, she should be on the Team

    who wants to send two 15 year olds the Olympics ?
     
  8. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    My choice is Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya. Adelina is the most complete skater, with better PCS than others, she is not in her best shape yet, after all, it's only August, but once she is she'll be a lock for the team. And Julia with such a good program like her new SP really has it all to make the team: much better PCS than before, amazing spins and consistent jumps. She is not on Adelina's level in terms of skating skills, interpretation and performance yet, but she is more than able to compete with Liza and beat her.
    As for Liza, her SP is the weakest among contenders for Olympic spots (of course we haven't seen Leonova yet and Morozov definitely can give her even weaker program, but to be honest, I don't see Alena as a contender no matter what she does) and the fact she has Malaguena for the LP, which means having almost the same programs for years, won't help her PCS. With her cleanest jump technique she still has all the chances, but can't afford even minor mistakes anymore.
    As for others, Pogorilaya improved a lot, but I don't think she can beat any of Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya and Tuktamysheva yet. And I doubt Gosviani and Korobeynikova have a chance at all
     
  9. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    .
     
  10. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    In this scenario euros becomes important and could sotnikova become top 2 there because of pcs even if jumps are weak.

    It is a home olympics so maybe that could mean Julia and Anna would be more comfortable. Also two 15 year olds could be a great story!
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Tara Lipinski won the Olympics at 15 years old and Sarah Hughes at 16. Kimmie Meissner didn't win the Olympics but won Worlds right after at 16. If Mao was allowed to compete in 2006 there's a good chance she could have won at 15. Idk, in some ways, two 15 year olds at the Olympics might be a smart choice, I think from a confidence/attitude standpoint and physical standpoint, there are some noteworthy advantages a 15 year old would have compared to an older teen or skater in her 20s. Not saying that it will happen, but in this sport, a lot of skaters are at their best at 15 or 16 years old. Think about Mirai at 16, Mao, Rachael, Kanako, etc. all arguably skating their best ever at 15 or 16 years of age.
     
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Who wants to send 2 skaters who could only come 9th and 10th at Worlds, despite skating decently, and who havent improved in atleast 2 years now to the Olympics. Maybe sending one at best, but sending both would be a waste. Even Leonova and Makarova were getting better results for Russia at their peak from 2010-2012.

    As far as scoring potential all the Russians are weak in the grand scale of elite things goes. The only way any of Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaia, or Pogorilaya will medal at the Olympics even with a clean competition is if all of Asada, Kostner, Wagner, Gold, and possibly even Korpi, Suzuki, Osmond, Murakami all make mistakes. I wont even mention Kim for the simple fact she couldnt possibly make enough mistakes to lose to any current Russian at their current best, even on her worst day. So with that said and scoring potential being mediocre for all, you might as well go with the more consistent skaters who are atleast likely to skate cleanly or closer to it, and be able to capatilize on an unlikely splatfest event to maybe make top 5 or even a surprise bronze by taking advantage of the others mistakes, and that would be Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya, as Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva would likely just waste the opportunity by making their own mistakes.
     
  13. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    If the 15 year olds are the best in Russia they're the best in Russia! It's accurate that none have really have any chance for a medal or top 5 in Sochi so why even send skaters who are strutting even if they've been to a worlds- where they 9 and 10. With sp placements being 8, 14 and, 15? Osmond was 4th in the sp. Zijun li was 4th in the lp. The best Russian was 8th? What's wrong with 2 15 year olds? Who are the 17 year olds?
     
  14. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    This will be Pogorilayas first senior season and I dont think that is good enough to waste a spot,
    sure the chances of medaling are low but they need at least 1 experience skater or has more like Sotnikova,
    if she is clean she gets huge scores , I know "if", even at Worlds needed an experienced one like Leonova when she was on a good from

    I say take 1 experienced and one newer like Julia or even Tuk
    though Tuk might have trouble since she usually collapses in Russian help evenst and her sp ?
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Sotnikova would not get huge scores if clean. Huge scores are like one of Yu Na Kims 150 LPs, and a clean Sotnikova would be nowhere near that. I could see a clean Sotnikova getting a good score like around 130 (based on Europeans where her only mistake was the singled flip, an event with generous scoring, that is about the max of her scoring potential right now) but that is, and that isnt even mentioning the high unlikelihood of her going anywhere near clean.

    I agree a veteran and a younger skater is a good compromise which is why I did vote for Lipnitskaia along with Sotnikova. However I expect atleast one younger skater on the 2 women team, which means Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and maybe Leonova I see battling for 1 spot at most.
     
  16. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    I know it is an "if" for skating clean, but Sotnikova is the highest potential scoring russian skater
    Julia only comes second to Sotnikova PCS wise; Julias biggest asset will be her stability
     
  17. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    ...I don't really think there has been any doubt since Worlds that Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova will go the Olympics. Lipnitskaia is much too young, not experienced enough and my book, and doesn't quite have "that" level yet--edge calls, UR's I believe, and still quite a junior-ish look. Tuktamysheva has already shown that she can lay down a 7-triple, 130+FS, although she has been inconsistent in the short. Sotnikova is a beautiful, mature skater, who is well liked and rewarded by judges in terms of PCS, and can lay down a strong SP (still working on the consistent LP and UR's though), like at Euro's or WTT (67+ for both).

    I think had there been 3 spots awarded to the Russian ladies, than undoubtedly Lipnitskaia would be the best candidate for a 3rd spot. But alas...:blah:
     
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I am hoping for Adelina and Liza, so that's who I voted for. They have worlds experience and that should count in their favor. Unless one (or both) totally bombs during the GP season, they will be the ones to beat at the Russian nationals. I hope Liza has put behind her puberty problems and can skate her best. I do believe that Julia still has a chance to make the Olympic team if she is stellar throughout the season.
     
  19. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Before worlds 2013 there was almost no bigger lock for three spots in ladies than Russia because of Tuktamisheva and Sotnikova and they weren't even close to that! They have shown that they are not at "that" level yet! Why continue with that duo when they didn't deliver anything at 2013 worlds and almost the whole team missed the top 10! If Russia wanted to pass a rule that said only people were at worlds from 2010 to 2013 could go to the Olympcis or just announced right now that Tuktamisheva and Sotnikova are the team excluding injury they could? But they are leaving it open. They have not announced Tuktamisheva and Sotnikova will be the team.
     
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    LOL there is alot of doubt of that as the poll results show, or are so many of us just crazy to not see the apparent obvious that you see.
     
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Liza and Adelina will still likely be the ones to go, even if they bomb at Nationals and aren't good during the GP either. Thing is, if they get sent anyways and don't deliver at the Olympics, the Russian Fed may wish they had gone with the two 15 year olds instead. At least we will get to see Julia at Euros most likely.
     
  22. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    Id rather have the risk of sending Elizaveta knowing that she could potentially pull out a 130 point FS than send Julia Lipnitskaya
     
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Julia can probably skate a 130 LP, or higher, skating clean. She has like 124 at JW in 2012, without a spiral, which she'll get +3s on.
     
  24. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

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    Given these numbers, she might come close to 130, but at that JW she was the favorite by a landslide and I doubt she'll get as high GOE compared to the senior ladies now as she got back then (on spins, yes - the rest, no).
     
  25. N_Halifax

    N_Halifax Well-Known Member

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    I'm hoping for Alena and Liza! As long as Alena goes, I'll be thrilled. She's more than capable of it.
     
  26. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Julia Lipnitskaya is one of the few skaters I can't watch.
    She is a stretching gymnast. Her basic skating is not very good considering her talent, and so is her jumping technique.
    She moves her arms and her head way too much, as CoP asks. She represents for me what I don't like in CoP.
    About the same for Pogorilaya.

    Elizaveta Tuktamisheva is more of a skater, but she lacks ice coverage, and if she doesn't have the jumps, she won't be able to beat others in Russia.

    My favorite is Polina Korobeynikova. But I guess we won't see her at Euros, Worlds or Olympics anymore.
    In fact, Adelina Sotnikova is probably the most complete. So, my favorite team would be Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva. :)
     
  27. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Agree! Don't give me no LIP!(nitskaya).

    She is everything bad about COP. Tiny jumps (but rotated). Gumby spins that have nothing to do with choreography, positions that are chosen for the their gumbiness rather than attractiveness . Gratuitous hydrants that earn GOE. No relation to music, no expression...a COP machine, basically.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2013
  28. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I think Sot, Tuk and Lip will advance from Nationals to Euros and the top two from there will go to Sochi.

    Given Sot and Tuk have already medalled at Euros and placed top 10 at Worlds, it is their spots to lose, really. Lip will probably have to be the top placed lady at Euros to have a spot.

    I doubt the Russian Fed will support anyone but these three this coming season.

    Keeping in mind that Russia is in the medal hunt too for the team event, a Sot short program and a Tuk long program will hopefully be very competitive.
     
  29. Dr.Siouxs

    Dr.Siouxs Well-Known Member

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    Good god, I can't even tell you how much I agree...
     
  30. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    I voted for Lip and Sot. If I could pick an OGM it would be Adelina. She has it all if only she can hold it together, along with the exuberance of youth that is so wonderful to see on Olympic stage. I would love to see her pull off a Lipinski and defeat the cautious veterans but I know Yu Na is a rock that only Yu Na can topple, and Mao and Carolina put up some big numbers....

    As for Julia, I have been inclined to ascribe all her weaknesses to youth and poor choreography, but it is time for her to start showing some personality and grace. I do think her steely nerves will carry her to Sochi.