What would top 12 be in Sochi ladies and men if everyone is clean

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kuzytalent, Jul 27, 2013.

  1. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    With Mao's current jump layout she is much less likely to skate cleanly than anyone in the top 15, including Kostner. Yes Mao has had some clean programs in the past but never attempting a jump layout like she has today which few men could probably even execute cleanly. Most likely neither will skate, but Kostner will be the one with less mistakes of the two.
     
  2. McIce

    McIce New Member

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    To be honest, judging by the last season's success on all different jumps, when Asada is on absolutely top form, she can potentially hit 3a, 2a-3t, 3s, 3f-2t-2l, 3l without problems and get ratified with some GOEs (between 0.5-1.5). She attempted those 5 jumps successfully at least once last season.

    The only unrealistic jumps are 3f-3l and 3lz. She probably will never complete them with no 'e' or '<'. But it's fine. She can at least complete them without falls.

    I do believe Asada is capable of tuning her form to peak at Olympics, just like 2010. If she's able to do that, she will have a huge TES and third highest PCS that no one can catch up. That's her goal, and I think she can do it.
     
  3. torren

    torren New Member

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    1. What I wanted to say in that post is
    We can not get example of Mao's clean FS. But already Mao's clean SP score surpassed kim's clean SP. Both two did clean SP, But Mao's was the season best. As she did at SP, I think in overall, clean Mao will surpass clean kim.
    2. I did't wanted to say they can beat her. Just when consider jumps contents, mistake and comparing score, There was not big difference and kim was not overwhelming. Scores say that. It was not an opinion. don't ask me
    At least Mao does not often fall which is the most serious mistake as much as kostner.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2013
  4. McIce

    McIce New Member

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    This I will say it may not be the case. Yes, Asada's season best sp score is higher than Kim, but
    1. Kim's spin levels at NRW were not as good as at Worlds (IIRC, one of her NRW spin was level one). With Worlds' spin levels, she could have got at least another 1.5 points.
    2. Kim's SP PCS will likely increase next season. As a reigning world/olympic champion, the boost is inevitable.

    Therefore, coming to Olympics season, the SP score between these two skaters may be a real nail-biter. It's basically a tie.
     
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  5. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Falling on a triple jump is not the most serious mistake in terms of jumping. The most serious mistake for jumps would be completely abandoning a jump pass like Mao Asada did at the 2007-2008 season GPF during the SP to place last in that segment. You get ZERO points for omitting a required jump element in the SP. The next most serious mistake would be singling a jump. I was just wondering if anyone has ever fallen on a single jump . . . I've never seen anyone do that. At least when you fall on a triple jump, you still net points.
     
  6. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Well according to you Mao is more consistent than Kostner, and also has more scoring potential than Kostner. Yet in the last 3 years she regularly loses to Kostner. When was her last win over Kostner now, 2010 sometime? So atleast 1 is wrong, either Mao is more inconsistent and is generally making even more mistakes these days than Kostner, or her scoring potential is in fact now less. It is not possible to be more consistent than someone, have more scoring potential, and still always be losing to them.
     
  7. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    It is too hard to say. Too many possible factors even in the fantasy of all skating cleanly. What will their new programs look like. Who will have momentum and political support from a stronger season going in. Which skaters will a certain judging panel like. For some skaters who have a bad flutz that they cant get rid of can that still count as a mistake for them.

    All I will say is the following:

    -I think even if all the women skate cleanly Yu Na Kim would win out over Kostner and Asada, even with Asada's much higher base value. Even a clean Asada would lose enough points in GOE and PCS (especialy since I dont count a flutz as a mistake for her as she isnt capable of doing a lutz) to lose to a clean Kim and maybe even a clean Kostner despite her base value edge.

    -I think Kim is much more likely to skate clean or closer to it than Asada or Kostner, making her just that much more likely a winner.

    -There is ZERO chance in a clean competition of a podium any other than Kim, Asada, or Kostner in some order. The good news for the other girls is there is almost zero chance of Kostner or Asada skating cleanly.

    -Amongst the large 2nd tier of ladies I think Gold and Wagner would be scored the highest if the rest all skated their best. Sotnikova, Osmond, #2 Russian, Suzuki, would all be scored about the same but below the 2 U.S girls unless there is home boost to the scores for the Russian ladies or they show improvements/have great programs.

    -Chan will win if he is clean no questions at all, and probably by atleast 15 points. Good news for the other boys is almost no chance he goes clean, but how many mistakes he makes is the question.

    -A clean Volosozhar & Trankov are unbeatable. They probably wont skate clean but will probably still win.

    -Fernandez if he skates clean I would predict to beat the Japanese men no matter what they do, and beat Chan if he has enough mistakes.

    -I could see Chan right off the podium given how many mistakes he is likely to make.

    -Duhamel & Radford might be the favorites for the bronze based on their consistency, but if everyone skated cleanly they would not finish 3rd.
     
  8. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I seriously doubt it. Don't forget, going for that kind of difficulty and nailing it will boost Mao's scores across the board...and doing it on the biggest stage there is? No way the judges wouldn't reward her for that. In a hypothetically clean skate, the only jump she would lose anything on would be the lutz. The rest of her jumps would get +1s and +2s (I don't believe she'd get any +3s) but her spins and footwork would get +2s and +3s. Cleanly executing technical content will equal a boost in her PCS. She'd be able to at least pull even with Yu-Na and Carolina in that section.

    Crunch the numbers. Over the course of the SP and FS, mathematically, I don't see how it's possible for anyone to beat her.


    That's why we pose this as a hypothetical. Yu-Na is much more likely to hit her bigger tricks and minimize her mistakes at this point...but the ice is slippery and stranger things have happened.

    I definitely think if Adelina Sotnikova managed to have a clean competition at home in Sochi she'd end up in the top 5. She has the content Ashley lacks and the presence/maturity/artistry Gracie lacks. Add the hometown bonus to that and I think she'd have a great case for 4th or 5th place. The only thing holding that girl back is her confidence.
     
  9. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    Sorry but I think the very suggestion a clean Asada would ever get the same or higher PCS as a CLEAN Kim or Kostner is purely fantasy at this point. The judges have consistently scored Asada much lower in PCS than those two, especialy Kim but more recently also Kostner, for years now, even when they make as many or more mistakes than her. As for GOE if you arent getting hardly any +3s on jumps you are losing ground to them too.

    Another thing too in Vancouver even had Mao been squeeky clean she would have lost to Kim by atleast 10 points. This isnt even arguable, as the protocals show this, take away Mao's only 2 mistakes, add some generous GOE and PCS and she is still way behind over the two programs. Have the rules or anything about Mao or Kim's skating really changed SO much that she now is ahead with both skating cleanly, when back then she would have been way behind. Keep in mind Mao was doing 3 triple axels over the two programs and planning all the triples besides the triple salchow even then.

    Sorry I dont see a clean Kim losing, even to a clean Mao. Granted all skating cleanly will be closer than the event probably will be which will be Kim making fewer mistakes than Kostner and Mao and the gap being even more.

    I have also looked at numbers and Mao's LP at Worlds would have been below Kim's even had she gone clean, unless one assumes a super generous GOE on the jumps she missed and PCS boost, more than I believe the judges were willing to give her. I wont even bother with the SP since the next time Kim skates a clean short if it isnt a way higher score than Worlds I will be stunned.


    As for Sotnikova vs Gold and Wagner it is hard to say for certain but Sotnikova seems to get buried if she even makes a few mistakes so I dont see even a clean skate from her pushing her way up the ranks, if others are clean too. Gold has been making lots of mistakes all year and still regularly beats her.
     
  10. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you're giving Mao enough credit which is understandable. We've not had a case where Mao has executed her proposed content so we don't really have anything to compare it to.

    As I said, this was a discussion that went on for 25+ pages over at GSU and several times in that thread people compiled numbers and came up with possible scores for clean skates. In the case of Mao, ForeverFish came up with this analysis of what kind of scores Mao would receive for a perfect SP & FS:

    That jump layout does not include a 3-3 in the FS which she plans to do BTW. She ends up with a total of 222.79...compare that with Yu-Na's total score of 218.31 from this year's worlds which (in the FS) was about as perfect as she can get from a skating standpoint and about as generous as the judges get from a scoring standpoint. She had like 32 +3 GOEs and six 10.00s in PCS. To put that into perspective, she only got 7 +3s in Vancouver and her highest PCS was 9.50. I don't think Yu-Na can score too much higher than what she did at worlds this year. Add back the point she lost in the SP on the flip...that'd push her to 219.31. Maybe +1 or +2 points for extra inflation but I can't see her score higher than that.

    When it comes to Mao skating cleanly, going by the actual numbers, she's a lot closer to Yu-Na than people would think. I do think inflation would factor into scores for everyone but if Mao were to execute that kind of content perfectly for the first time at the Olympics, I do think her PCS and GOE would receive a significant hike. We've never seen that happen so we don't really know how much but I know she'd score higher than she ever has before.
     
  11. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    Like I said I find the cloest barometer is the 2010 Olympics since at that event Mao was clean except for 2 mistakes in her long program which is basically as close as you get for Mao anyway which makes this whole topic almost futile anyway. Even taking away those two mistakes and giving her some GOE and a very generous PCS she isnt even close to winning overall. Now I know there are some rule changes since then, and some think Kim even going clean isnt her 2010 level as a skater, and for a variety of reasons it could be much closer than 2010 if both go clean. However has so much changed in various ways that a clean Mao could beat a clean Kim now when in 2010 she wouldnt have been even close even going totally clean. What are the extreme changes since then which would produce a result that you wouldnt have even been close to getting in 2010 had both gone clean.
     
  12. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    Also the total score you posted is taking Mao's best elements across various competitions, which she probably wouldnt match all at once even in a clean skate, and the most generous possible PCS, and her FS is STILL lower than Kim's LP at Worlds. That alone just proves the point it is unlikely for her to beat a clean Kim even if the impossible miracle she skated her current LP cleanly took place. Most agree Kim can easily score around 75 in the short program, even if she didnt this year, and even if probably not the 78 she got in Vancouver as well, so counting on a significant SP lead for Mao to give her the title would probably not come to pass either. Yes scores at Olympics tend to be higher, but that applies for Kim as well as Mao.

    Also I dont assume Mao not flutzing in a clean skate since she is incapable of doing a proper lutz. This has been proven over many years. -GOE is a guarantee for her on that jump even if she does it what is clean for her.
     
  13. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    You citing 2010 as a reference is a moot point. You can't take results from nearly 4 years ago and apply them to now as a generalization b/c scoring trends have changed. In 2010 Carolina's PCS were about 57...flash forward nearly 4 years and her PCS for worlds this year was 70. Has Carolina really improved her skating by that much? It's all relative to the time so you can't say oh Mao only scored blah blah with 2 mistakes almost 4 years ago so why would you think she can compete with Yu-Na now?

    Yes, that score I referenced took the best elements across several performances. Seeing as this is a hypothetical situation and there is not one competition where Mao executed all of these elements perfectly, the logical thing to do is to take actual scores from well-executed elements (so you can't say someone is just randomly pulling a number from somewhere) and compile them into one hypothetically perfect program. Her most generous PCS came from one perfect SP (4CC) and the best FS she was able to execute this season (worlds). Again, these are actual scores that were given to her with minimal inflation (ForeverFish only bumped Mao's PCS total from 68 to 69 though I think with a perfect program she'd receive closer to 70).

    Those are the numbers...actual numbers pulled from competitions that compose a hypothetical score. But since you seem to think it's impossible, I encourage you to prove me wrong. :)

    ETA: I'll just repost this in the thread you created so we can continue this lil discussion there. ;)
     
  14. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    You already proved yourself wrong. I dont need to do anything, you did it all for me. Even bringing the best scores Mao could compile at various elements across any competition, and giving her a 0 GOE on a triple lutz which she isnt even capable of since she is only capable of a flutz, and giving her higher PCS than many would estimate the judges to give her, her LP score was lower than Kim's at Worlds. Realistically even with a clean skate someone doesnt match their very best GOE (not just clean but their best quality amongst various clean ones) done at any competition on every single element either, so realistically the score would be lower than that too; unless we pick any element from Kim's Worlds LP that she ever scored higher on and boost her score over 150 by the same standard. So no further discussion is neccessary.
     
  15. torren

    torren New Member

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    I know in vancouver, clean Asada would defeat by clean kim. but many things were so much changed.
    At that time, Their bv was not big difference. kim was ahead 1 point in SP. Mao was 3 points ahead in FS. IIRC
    In FS, Mao planned 6 triples, had not 3-3, had not 3Lutz and 3Sal. Now she has all kind of triples, and plans 8 triples, has 3-3 in FS. She can get more GOE on jumps than the past. by contrast, Kim can't do 2a -3t anymore because of 2a limits. Rule was so many changed. GOE factor, base value of jumps
    base value difference is much more bigger than the past because Mao's jump layout was became more difficult, kim's was became less difficult, and rule has changed
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2013